Luo Junning has already thought about what the topic of his temporary operation in the United States this time is, that is, the prediction and evaluation of the second housing crisis in the United States.

The sub-housing crisis, the full name of the sub-housing credit crisis, refers to the goal has been clearly reflected in the name, that is, the economic bubble and crisis caused by the imbalance of real estate development in the United States, of course, the imbalance in real estate development is only the fuse, the deepest reason is the policy direction of the US government and the basic needs of the American people.

This Qiē has to start from 5 years ago, the US federal funds rate cut by 50 basis points, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy began a cycle from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts, after 13 interest rate cuts, by June 03, the federal funds rate was reduced to 1%, reaching the lowest level in the past 46 years, and such a loose monetary environment is also reflected in the real estate market, mortgage interest rates fell over the same period, and the fixed mortgage interest rate for 30 years fell from 8.1% at the end of 2000 to 5.8% in 03 The one-year adjustable mortgage rate fell from 7.0% at the end of '01 to 3.8% in '03, which is an important reason for the continued boom in U.S. real estate.

However, from 2004, which was also the first year of Luo Junning's high school exchange student in South Korea, the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy began to reverse, and by June 05, after Luo Junning went through the college entrance examination, the United States has raised interest rates 13 times in a row, and now in 06, the federal funds rate has increased from 1% to 4.73% With the firm implementation of such policies, the cost of housing borrowing has also increased, and it has begun to play a role in cutting out demand and cooling the market, leading to the decline in housing prices and a large increase in the risk of mortgage default.

In the United States, credit disputes due to the inability to pay for high housing goods have also begun to increase, and what makes Luo Junning even more amused is that some financial institutions also deliberately package high-risk mortgage loans into securitization products 'quietly' to sell these problematic mortgage loan securities to investors.

"The opacity of the rating market and the conflict of interest of rating agencies are the main reasons why these high-risk assets enter the investment market smoothly. Luo Junning's fingers tapped lightly on the desktop, and his mind was pre-constructed with possible scenes and economic models in the future, but this was obviously not the information work that could be completed by the human brain with a single-digit percentage usage rate at one time, so he pressed these to the bottom of his heart and stretched his waist," Forget it, let's take it slowly, anyway, this is a matter for the United States, it's just a subject for me, if you want to come to the United States such a big so-called free federation, and it is also the deposit zài where capital determines the national policy, it should have found bad signs and started to deal with it, right, there should be no interlocking economic crisis, right?"

Out of trust in the U.S. economy, Luo Junning did not take this topic too seriously, but just treated it as a normal job.

In the evening, Luo Junning went to Chen Fan's house and saw his sister-in-law who he hadn't seen for a long time, this sister-in-law with a gentle personality in the Jiangnan water town made him very moved, and he was much happier than Tang Han's sister, of course, if he was allowed to choose, he felt that these two women should be his sisters, and he did the same, the only regret was that he didn't see the daughter of Chen Fan's family, that quirky little girl, should be more than 5 years old this year.

In the next few days, Luo Junning was familiar with the company's operation during working hours, and gradually participated in Chen Fan's work process, but he was more of an observer, and did not use his identity to influence Chen Fan's decision-makingIn the future, maybe you will have to exchange interests with the top management of KBS and SBS, and it is always good to learn more about this knowledge now, so as not to be in a hurry in the future, after all, the top management of these three TV stations in South Korea will never be more 'economically minded' than people from a professional world-class company like Google, right?

Chen Fan was very satisfied with Luo Junning's performance during this time, and also privately told Tang Han about Luo Junning's expression here, in his opinion, Luo Junning may not be a qualified executor, but he already has the foundation that a qualified controller should have.

In his free time, Luo Junning was actively completing the selected topics, and after the target topics had been determined, he dragged Chen Fan to collect information on housing loans and relevant policies of the US Federal Reserve, and quickly completed a series of analyses and estimates, and boldly made assumptions and speculations, and gave several possible scenarios at the end, the worst case is of course the most likely large-scale economic crisis in his simulation.

"A major economic crisis caused by the subprime housing credit crisis?" Looking at this paper, Chen Fan was silent, but his eyes flashed with a strange light.

Luo Junning said with a smile: "This is the worst plan, if the US government does not soon make adjustments to the current policy and improve the rating system, maybe there is really a possibility of such a situation, but the possibility is really not very big, after all, it is the United States, although it does not have a special good impression of this country, but after all, it is the strongest country in the world now." ”

Is it the strongest?

Chen Fan shook his head and said with a smile: "This paper is good, don't you mind if I make a copy?"

"Feel free, as long as Brother Chen, you don't belong to your name at the back of the paper and publish it. Luo Junning said indifferently.

"You kid, am I the kind of person who steals people's achievements?" Chen Fan scolded with a smile, and after copying this paper, he sent it directly back to China and sent it to Luo Junning's father, and soon he also received a call from Luo Zesheng, asking about the possibilities expected in this paper, and in the end, a plan to deal with this possible economic crisis and how to maximize the benefits in this round of possible economic crisis has also begun to have a draft, and there will be someone to start perfecting.

Hanging up the phone, Chen Fan looked at the paper in front of him, and silently thought: Junning has a keen eye, but it is still a little too idealistic, the United States is very strong, yes, but the strongest point is the weakest point, the United States, there are too many powerful economies, so this large-scale economic crisis that is expected to be the least likely, in the mutual tilting of these powerful economies in the United States, the possibility of occurrence has been greatly improved, this, but the opportunity, is the opportunity for Zelu to expand itself and truly enter the American market.

Luo Junning didn't know what Chen Fan had done, at this time he was looking at the dance videos of one beautiful woman after another on the computer, with a scrutinizing light in his eyes, don't get me wrong, he is not choosing a target, after all, he already has a girlfriend, and he cherishes his current girlfriend, now, he is just choosing a dance teacher for his girlfriend, this is also his second assignment in the United States in addition to his thesis. (To be continued.) )