Columbia Pictures spent $1 million to buy the global distribution rights of "Before Sunrise", which attracted a lot of media attention, after all, "vulgar" is still in theaters, and "Before Sunrise" has gathered a lot of topics, and it is naturally infinitely fermented at this time.

With this move by Columbia Pictures, all the news media immediately became lively, and everyone was discussing: what height can the box office of "Before Sunrise" reach?

It's a tricky question, even if box office forecasters are hesitant.

The origin of the Sundance Film Festival "before sunrise" and the attributes of independent films are all precursors to the decline of the box office.

Although the "vulgar" that is being released has created one miracle after another with a devastating situation, objectively speaking, in addition to "vulgarity", independent films are currently unpopular in the entire American film market, and independent films are still too niche and too limited. This is especially true at the Sundance Film Festival, which is now in its 11th year of existence, and its most successful production is last year's "Clerks."

The "crazy clerk" is the nobody, Kevin Smith. smith) wrote, directed and acted in his own work, and it is also his debut as a screenwriter, actor and director. The $27,000 independent film became one of the most important works in American cult cinema history, and two decades later, it is often seen in the top 10 and 20 classic cult films.

"Crazy Clerk" landed at the Sundance Film Festival last year, won the Filmmaker Trophy, and then won the Mercedes-Benz Award and Best Overseas Film at the Cannes Film Festival. But even so, twenty years later, "Crazy Clerk" and "Vulgar" became the representative of independent cinema in this special year of 1994.

The total box office revenue of "Crazy Clerk" after its release was $3.2 million, which is not high, but compared to its ultra-low cost of $27,000, the profit is very considerable. What's more, the work was very popular in the videotape market, and it continued to be popular until the turn of the millennium.

So far, the $3.2 million created by "The Crazy Clerk" is the highest grossing of all the works that have come out of the Sundance Film Festival, Quentin Tarantino's debut film "Reservoir Dogs" has only grossed only $2.8 million in North America, while Steven Soderbergh's famous film "Sex, Lies, and Videotape" in Sundance has grossed $2.4 million in North America.

It is worth mentioning that "Sex, Lies, and Videotape" was released after winning the Palme d'Or at the Cannes Film Festival, but unfortunately the box office was still unsatisfactory.

From this point of view, the box office prospects of "Before Sunrise" are really not optimistic. The Sundance Film Festival's independent film masterpiece is hardly a title that gives "before sunrise" much of an advantage in the fight for box office, but can instead be a factor that prevents audiences from entering the cinema: because people will preconceived notions that the film is too niche, too special, too weird to be liked by themselves.

So, can "Before Sunrise" achieve a box office of more than 2.5 million at the cost line? This seems like a question that doesn't require much thought.

But from another point of view, Hugo has won many battles in the past three years, and the winning rate of his works is 100%, starting from "Smell the Fragrance and Know the Woman", every movie has been a box office success, although the box office of "vulgar" finally stopped at 172 million US dollars, and did not let the name of "Mr. 400 million" further develop into "Mr. 600 million", but since "The Heroes of the Righteous Sea", Hugo has five consecutive works The North American box office has exceeded 100 million, so the momentum completely confirms what it means to be in the sky.

Will "Before Sunrise", Hugo's screenwriting debut, and the Sundance Film Festival winning a lot of praise from audiences and professional critics alike, be a decisive factor in the film's box office success?

No one will forget jì, "Before Sunrise" is a love movie, another love movie in 1992 "Sleepless in Seattle" is to complete the counterattack in one fell swoop when everyone is not optimistic, not only replacing "Pretty Woman" and winning the first place at the box office in the history of romantic comedy themes; It also set a box office of $189 million, which is almost unattainable for a romance movie.

Imagine that Julia Roberts and Richard Gere went straight to the top thanks to the chick movie "Pretty Woman", especially Julia; It is possible to speculate on the status that Hugo and Meg Ryan gained because of this film. Since then, Hugo has been named the sexiest man in the world by People magazine for two consecutive years, and has become the representative of the most perfect lover in the minds of countless women.

Now, "Before Sunrise" is another romance movie, and has been praised by countless critics as exploring the true meaning of love, and with the duo of Hugo and Charlize, people have reason to expect more from this work. Then the box office of the movie is naturally worth looking forward to.

These are two different angles, and there will be two completely different answers, which may be a box office success or a box office dismal, and this contradictory speculation is really difficult for experts.

In addition, what is interesting is that in "Before Sunrise", Hugo has created the first $100 million box office in Hollywood film history and has become the first person in history, and everyone is curious: Will Hugo continue to create a box office myth of 100 million and push his consecutive box office of 100 million to the sixth and seventh parts? Or did the record come to an abrupt end, and the two-year-long high-speed development state that began with "Yihai Xiongfeng" temporarily came to an end?

Objectively speaking, journalists expect the first possibility, but prefer to see the second. It's not schadenfreude - of course, this mentality also occupies a large part of it, but Hugo's prolonged dominance has become a kind of fatigue, and people will look forward to breaking this situation.

It's human nature, just like in sports, when a dynasty is established, people rejoice, but more people want to see the dynasty fall. Because a winning general will make the game lose suspense and reduce the charm of the competition, and fierce competition and a hundred schools of thought will make the game more exciting - fans who like players other than the winning general can bloom.

Since 1992, Hugo's career has continued to rise for three consecutive years, and it can almost be described as a "sweeping" posture, as if every time Hugo's work is launched, it means success. This is actually a kind of aesthetic fatigue for journalists and audiences.

Journalists can't help but think: failure, when will it come? Or is it not a failure, at least a pause or a slowdown, and when will it come?

In this case, the work "Before Sunrise" has become Hugo's latest work, which is really interesting. It is not a commercial blockbuster with a $100 million investment, nor is it an art film with the potential to sweep the awards, but an independent film full of personality and a real nature, and it seems that Hugo's continuous upward momentum for three consecutive years is in jeopardy, and it will be disillusioned at any time.

So, in an instant, the reporters were all excited, like sharks smelling blood. It's not for Hugo, it's just a simple "unpopular mentality".

In this way, it is really a very interesting phenomenon that the box office table of "Before Sunrise", which is difficult to make a difference at the box office, has become the focus of countless media discussions. Of course, this question has also become a difficult question for experts to judge and predict, whether to continue to believe in Hugo's box office appeal, or to believe in the obstacles of the entire independent film environment?

Apparently, more experts believe in the latter. It's hard for Hugo to stand alone against the whole environment, not to mention that critics who have watched "Before Sunrise" in Park City also know that this is not a work that can conquer the city at the box office. The successful line of "vulgarity" is not so easy to replicate.

After Columbia Pictures announced that "Before Sunrise" would be officially screened in seven theaters on February 3, eight media outlets made predictions about the box office performance of "Before Sunrise".

Since "Before Sunrise" is only a screening, it is naturally meaningless to predict the weekend box office, and these eight media outlets are all predicting the box office of a single museum. However, it is really intriguing that these eight media outlets did not see the big media such as the "Los Angeles Times" and the "New York Times".

Obviously, it can't be that the Los Angeles Times doesn't pay attention, so what exactly is the reason? Is it because the box office is too tricky for them to make an accurate judgment, or is it because even Nicholas McLaen is soft-mouthed, and he can't confidently say that this time the box office will still be a big win "before sunrise"?

But whatever the reason, the big newspapers really didn't make any predictions. Of the eight media outlets, three are national, USA Today, the Chicago Tribune, and the New York Post – all of which are not very friendly to Hugo.

According to USA Today, "$3,000 is their highest expectation, and it's the best compliment to Hugo Lancaster, whose screenwriting debut is not easy to achieve." Obviously, they are not optimistic that "before sunrise" will be able to create a zào miracle.

The Chicago Tribune's review maintained its usual satirical and humorous style, "Maybe it can get 18,000 dollars at the box office in the first week of screening, but it is not easy for the total box office of this film to get a fraction of Lancaster's salary." ”

They are very confident in the single-theater box office of "before sunrise", mainly betting on Hugo's appeal, of course, when the movie is screened in art theaters, the independent attribute of "before sunrise" will become an advantage, so it is normal for the results to be optimistic during the screening.

However, it is clear that they are still pessimistic about the final box office "before sunrise", expressing this view in a mocking and ironic way.

As for the New York Post, Colin Myler has no reason to support Hugo.