Chapter 221 Risk Allocation
London, still thick with fog. Setting foot in this fantastic city again, Wilhelm I's mood was exceptionally different.
The relationship between the Anglo-Prussian royal family is still good, the two sides are sons and daughters, and the son of William I married the daughter of Queen Victoria.
When William I visited, he was naturally received by the British royal family. However, the enthusiasm of the English did not make William I feel a trace of warmth.
No way, in the reception crowd, there was no figure of high-level officials of the British government. There is no doubt that the London government did not take his arrival very seriously.
In diplomacy, this is a common way to express political positions and exert pressure, but it is still very effective.
Unlike the First Russo-Prussian War, the London government contributed money and efforts to block the Baltic Sea at the expense of offending the Russians in order to pull the strings, laying the foundation for Prussia to win the war.
The Russian Empire, now in decline, could no longer threaten the interests of Britain. Instead, there are two new threats from France and Austria, and it is no longer necessary to continue to suppress Russia.
Perhaps, in the eyes of the London government, the Russian-Austrian alliance has broken down. Keeping the Russian Empire in a certain position could contain part of Austria's power behind the scenes, so that they could not fully engage in the European hegemony, which would help maintain the balance on the European continent.
The Pop-Po Federation wanted to gain the support of the British in the war, and there was no international situation to take advantage of, so it could only speak with interests.
The welcome banquet was held normally, and the banquet was attended by a group of nobles, and the top of the British government still did not appear.
A cabinet meeting is underway at the Prime Minister's Residence on Downing Street. It's not that the London government is inefficient, it's mainly that William I came too quickly.
With the queen not in charge, the power of the British cabinet is very large, and the workload is naturally very large.
The London government really attaches great importance to the new round of the Russo-Prussian War, but after all, it has not yet been fought.
War is not child's play, and under normal circumstances, it is normal for it to drag on for a few months, or even a year or two.
Prime Minister Benjamin: "Wilhelm I is here, the Russian crown prince will arrive next month, we need to make a choice now."
For the sake of Britain, I hope that you will analyze rationally and extract the best interests for the Empire. ”
The outcome of this Russo-Prussian war is not as crucial for the London government as it was last time. No matter who wins or loses, the pattern of the three empires dominating the world will not change.
Foreign Secretary Edward: "The most important concern now should be Austria, as the outcome of the Russo-Prussian War will determine who their potential future rivals are."
The confrontation between Prussia and Russia is actually a good choice. Now that the Austrians had allowed the Russo-Prussian War to break out, it seemed that the Vienna government was no longer content with the status quo.
Austria's strength has grown very rapidly in recent years. Especially in the economy, the performance is particularly prominent.
In addition to its military prowess, Austria has completely surpassed France. If the French are unable to digest the Italian region for a long time, sooner or later the power of France and Austria will be out of balance. ”
Now France and Austria are the enemies of Britain, and they have nothing to do with other powers. France and Austria had the power to threaten the British, and they were the enemies of the government in London.
The alliance between Britain, France and Austria was for the common good. There is a paper covenant that can bind everyone's behavior, reduce colonial conflicts, and save a lot of military spending.
Alliances are alliances, and there are still some suppressions and restrictions. Limiting the power of France and Austria has become one of the core strategies of the London government.
Robert, Colonial Secretary: "The French digested the Italian region, and the European continent would also lose its balance, except that France would overtake Austria."
This is actually a false proposition, whether France overwhelms Austria, or Austria surpasses France, the difference in strength between them is not a day apart.
We have plenty of time to make strategic adjustments. Now the question is who is more in our interest to win the upcoming Russo-Prussian War? ”
Robert was optimistic about the French, all of which were given by Napoleon.
Even if the French army did not keep up with the rhythm in the new round of military reforms, everyone still thinks that the French army is the first in the world.
The performance of the French army in the First Near Eastern War strengthened the British view. The slow replacement of weapons and equipment, and the fact that military training was stuck in decades ago, are all problems that have been inadvertently ignored by everyone.
It is generally believed in the international community that the French Army ranks first in the world in terms of combat effectiveness when the number of troops is comparable.
Based on the experience gained from the war against France, the best way to defeat the French was to throw more money and invest more troops.
The basis for the belief that the strength of France and Austria is equal is also based on this. The French army was more elite and the Austrians were more numerous and economically stronger, and they offset each other on exactly equal terms.
Foreign Secretary Edward: "The Austrians are deliberately indulging the outbreak of Prussia, and it is clear that they are seeking further territorial expansion.
Whoever wins or loses this war, the Vienna government is the biggest victor. Geopolitical relations, after the Prussians and Russia have won and lost, no one will be able to hinder Austria's expansion.
In previous years, the French government was constantly infighting, and in the last two years, Napoleon IV gradually seized power, and the government in Paris has stabilized.
Because of their interests, the capitalists who had previously supported Napoleon III's unification of Italy were now on the opposite side of the Parisian government, secretly financing Italian independence organizations.
In the face of internal instability, the French had lost the ability to counterbalance Austria, which was the main reason why the Viennese government dared to indulge the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War.
For the sake of continental balance, we must create another enemy for the Austrians, to contain them from behind, and both Prussia and Prussia are alternatives.
Judging by the development potential, the threat from the Russians is significantly greater. Once this war is won, the invincible Russian Empire will come back again.
They may be too demoralized to dominate the European continent after the war, but in Central Asia and the Far East, they will still threaten our interests. ”
At the time of Napoleon III, the Italian problem was not yet serious. Relying on super political skills, suppressing and winning over a wave is still stable on the whole.
It was not the turn of Napoleon IV, because the previous Paris government was busy with infighting and neglected the economic construction of the country.
In particular, the wrong economic policy was enacted to merge the two markets into one. After opening up the market, the capitalists who supported the merger with France found themselves fooled.
What appeared to be a level playing field turned into an economic plunder of the Italian region by France.
It's not that the capitalists in Italy don't work hard, it's just that the gap in industrial strength between the two sides is too great, and it is not something that can catch up in a short time.
If it is only these problems, it is not unbearable, and it is only the small and medium-sized capitalists who are unlucky. Strong capitalists can replace with new equipment and regain competitiveness.
However, both the Italian region and France share a common problem – lack of resources.
In order to compete for resources, the capitalists had to show their talents. There is no doubt that the Parisian government is sitting on the right side of the ass and is more inclined to the local capitalists when it comes to formulating policies.
After coming and going, resentment accumulated. The capitalists, who were not willing to be lonely, slowly manipulated public opinion, stirred up popular dissatisfaction with the French, and tried to force the Paris government to make concessions.
The result is self-evident, even if the French government wants to make concessions, the capitalists in Paris will not agree.
In the last economic crisis, this contradiction was directly ignited. A section of the capitalists began to lean towards independence, preaching nationalism in the Italian regions.
It was not only the capitalists who were dissatisfied with the French, but also the local aristocracy. A turnip and a pit, in the distribution of power in the French government, they get too little.
Despite the contradictions, there was no large-scale independence movement in Italy. The reason is simple: despite all the discomforts, the standard of living of ordinary people has improved.
It doesn't matter if the local economy doesn't work, you can export labor. It's all a country, so it's not a problem to go out to work.
Compared to Italy, France is a relatively high salary. It's also a win-win, with ordinary Italians getting more income and French capitalists getting cheap labor.
Some people are proud, and some people are disappointed. As a result of labor mobility, labor costs in Italy have doubled in just a decade. This made the Italian regional capitalists gnash their teeth.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Balfour: "What can the Popo Federation give us?" And what will the Russians be able to give us?
IMHO, these two countries can bring us too little benefit. There is no need for us to intervene in the mere balancing of Austria, and whoever wins is Austria's enemy.
Now they are turning to us for help, not for international diplomatic support, but more for money.
The outcome of this war will not be determined by whether the armies of the two countries are elite or not, but more by who can raise more money.
It's easy to lend them money, but how do you get it back?
Although we don't want to admit it, we have to admit that our ability directly determines the outcome of this war.
If you make the wrong bet, you will end up with nothing. That's hundreds of millions of pounds invested, and I'm against making a choice now. ”
The word "money" sums up the essence of British diplomacy. Directly shut up Foreign Secretary Edward, who was inclined to support the Pop-Polish Federation.
No way, the risk is just too great. He didn't even know what to ask the Popo Federation to keep the debt safe.
After a moment of hesitation, Prime Minister Benjamin made a decision: "Probe William I first and see how many chips they have."
If the Popo Federation wants to win this war, it needs the support of at least two great powers. If they can get the support of Austria or France, it is not impossible to issue war bonds for them. ”
International debt is risk-taking, even for the deep-pocketed John Bull. Without finding someone to share the risk, they don't dare to gamble directly into hundreds of millions of pounds.
Supporting the Russians was not at all on Benjamin's radar. The main reason is not a potential threat, but money.
With the credibility of the tsarist government, if he dared to lend money to the Russians, he would be in the water in his head.
Don't think about the collateral, even if you sign a contract, you can still breach the contract. The warships of the Royal Navy could not go ashore again, and their deterrent effect against the Russians was too small.