Chapter 12 The Outbreak of the Third Near Eastern War
In London, the emergence of the anti-Turkish alliance directly bankrupted all the previous plans of the British government.
At this time, Prime Minister Gladstone was no longer worried about saving the Ottomans, but about how to ensure India's security.
"What is the situation in France?"
Foreign Secretary George shook his head: "Very bad, this empire is just paper paste, weak and weak."
Bourgeois Revolutionaries, Republicans, Social Revolutionaries, Orleans Restoration, Bourbon Restoration, Italian Independence......
With so many anti-government forces in one country, it is hard to imagine how the Bonaparte dynasty could hold on. ”
Looking at the worried British Foreign Secretary, it is estimated that no one can imagine that these messy organizations have basically been funded by the British government.
After unremitting efforts, these investments finally began to work, but unfortunately the timing was wrong, and the outbreak was all counterproductive.
There's nothing to blame, everybody does it. The London government is supporting the French anti-government groups, and the Paris government is also supporting the anti-British groups.
Gladstone nodded heavily: "The French are indeed a little active, and the magic box opened by Napoleon himself finally took revenge on his empire." ”
After saying that, Gladstone realized that something was wrong, and it seemed that Britain was also shooting itself in the foot.
Without their selfless dedication, the French Revolutionary Party would not have grown bigger, let alone the current French Civil War.
There was no civil war in France, and Austria would never dare to start a war without being able to guarantee security on the Western Front.
Thinking of this, Gladstone showed a hint of bitterness: "It seems that we and the French have fallen for Austria and have been led by the Austrians to the present." ”
Foreign Secretary George waved his hand: "Prime Minister, you are too pessimistic. It is a complete coincidence that the situation has developed to this point.
Austria may have been pushing the way, but they decided they couldn't imagine that France would be so weak. ”
From the point of view of interests, Austria is the biggest beneficiary. Britain seems to have fallen into passivity, and the gains they have received are definitely not low.
Whether it's the previous short franc; or play commodity dumping to suppress competitors; Or to snatch the interests of the French overseas, Britain is the victor.
The only mistake was to ignore France's internal contradictions.
France's internal contradictions were caused by a combination of many reasons, and the Anglo-Austrian invasion of France's financial system and the dumping of commodities were only catalysts for contradictions.
At the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, France relied on abundant capital and quickly completed industrialization.
With the advancement of industrialization, the shortage of industrial raw materials is becoming increasingly serious. In order to ensure the smooth development of industrial production, the French had to import aggressively.
Affected by the "import" of raw materials, the cost of industrial production in France has always remained high. It doesn't matter when you play on your own behind closed doors, but when you join the free system, the situation is grim.
In order to gain an advantage in market competition, the capitalists tried every means to reduce the cost of industrial production, including increasing the exploitation of the working class.
Where there is oppression, there is resistance. The brutal oppression of the capitalists led directly to the outbreak of the French workers' movement.
In addition to internal factors, the annexation of Italian regions by France was also an important factor in intensifying the contradictions.
In the merged Grande de France, the commodity market has increased significantly compared to before, but not only the market, but also the demand for industrial raw materials and greater employment pressure.
Because of the disparity in the level of economic development, the price of labor in Italy is much lower, and a large number of Italians have poured into France to work.
The abundant labor force, while promoting the development of French industry and commerce, also provided the capitalists with the confidence to unscrupulously oppress the working class.
In the era of Napoleon III, the scale of French industry was still very limited, the demand for raw materials was not very large, and French industry and commerce did not need to bear higher production costs, and the economy was naturally very good.
By the time of Napoleon IV, the total volume of French industry had increased, the cost of industry had increased significantly, and corporate profits began to decline.
Especially after joining the free trade system, market competition has become more brutal, and labor conflicts have become increasingly severe.
Crises lurk and are mainly confined to the lower classes. Capital has taken control of the media, the labor crisis has been downplayed or stolen, and the crisis has been hidden in a corner that the rulers cannot see.
Before the Revolution, France's economy seemed to be very prosperous, and the London government was unaware that the empire was already strong from outside.
Outward toughness + stereotype + geopolitics + domineering of the French government, and finally the London government came to the conclusion that this is: the biggest threat.
Needless to say, the biggest threat is, of course, to be suppressed at the highest level.
Austria also sees France as the greatest threat, and France, sandwiched in the middle, has unfortunately been suppressed by two of the world's most powerful countries.
A set of combination punches came down, and Huwei was punctured. The internal contradictions intensified, and the situation in France was completely out of control.
This is a shared responsibility of previous governments, and Gladstone decisively shifted the sensitive topic: "It's too late to say more.
The key now is to find a way to help Napoleon IV stabilize the situation, restore his strength, and relieve the pressure we are facing. ”
Chancellor of the Exchequer Childers analyzed: "To stabilize the situation in France, you must first stabilize the French economy.
It's very difficult, and the economic situation in our country is also very bad, and the government can't stop the capitalists from dumping.
The Paris Revolution frightened the French bourgeoisie, and Napoleon IV had already gained the support of domestic consortiums, and now he was not short of money. ”
The raging economic crisis in France is largely caused by the transfer of overcapacity in Britain and Austria, and the most effective way to recover the economy in the short term is to protect the market.
However, this is contrary to the free trade agreement, which is the core interests of Britain and Austria, and the London government has no self-sacrificing spirit and cannot allow this kind of thing to happen.
If France unilaterally defaults with impunity, and other countries follow suit, the free trade system that the British government has built after hundreds of thousands of years of hard work will fall apart.
Napoleon IV never announced his withdrawal from the free trade system, for fear of irritating Britain and Austria and losing international support.
Gladstone is lost in thought, and this is a dilemma. If the London government is willing to relent, the French will definitely adopt trade barriers.
The consequence is that the economic crisis at home intensifies, the situation becomes more volatile, and the bourgeoisie, whose interests are damaged, will remove them from power.
After hesitating for a moment, Gladstone chose to take it from the heart, he is the British Prime Minister and needs to be responsible for the British people.
"Increase diplomatic support, unleash our influence, and lobby more people to support Napoleon IV.
If possible, stabilize the Orleans and Bourbons first. As long as they do not strike, the French army will not be in chaos, and this rebellion can be quickly quelled. ”
There is no way, although Napoleon III came to the throne and found an opportunity to purge the military forces loyal to the previous dynasty, there is no way to eradicate the influence thing.
The Paris Revolution was not suppressed for a long time, that is, there were people in the French army who pulled their legs, and many troops did not work on the battlefield.
George nodded: "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already been in contact with the Orleans dynasty and the Bourbon dynasty, and the current situation is not what they want to see."
We are ready to arrange a meeting between the representatives of the three royal families in the near future to reconcile the conflicts as much as possible. ”
Now the situation in France is very bad, both the Orleans dynasty and the Bourbon dynasty are at a disadvantage in this round of reshuffle, even if the Bonaparte dynasty is finished, it will not be their turn to restore.
In the Eastern countries, if there were a few royal families who had already been killed, there was absolutely no possibility of compromise.
However, the situation in Europe is special, and the situation in France is even more special, and the three royal families represent the interests of the three waves of nobles, which are essentially pushed out by interest groups.
The Orleans dynasty did not slaughter all the nobles loyal to Bonaparte, and Napoleon III came to power without massacring the nobles loyal to Orleans.
Under the tradition of not killing the aristocracy easily, the so-called purges are nothing more than letting these guys who have lost the political struggle go home.
After returning home, a large part of these losers are still rich and have no small strength at the local level.
No one was willing to be marginalized, and these frustrated people were the sponsors of the Restoration, and it was the aristocracy that was responsible for the failure of the power struggle and the fall of the family.
If they want to return to the center of power and restore the glory of their family, the best option is restoration.
There are gold owners, and there are people who are willing to fight, which is the reason why the restoration power of the French royal family has been prosperous for a long time.
When it comes to the royal family in the audience, they only have influence, and they do not have the strength to command the heroes.
With the exception of Napoleon III, the other two royal families were not active in the Restoration.
Reconciling the contradictions of all parties is actually a distribution of interests. As long as the interest groups behind it reach a compromise, restoration activities can be postponed.
……
The actions of the British did not affect the actions of the anti-Turkish coalition. Under the leadership of the Vienna government, Austria, Russia, Montenegro, and Greece held an anti-Turkish conference in Vienna.
After a short period of contact, the representatives of the four countries agreed that only by overthrowing the barbaric and brutal Ottoman government could the Ottomans be helped to enter civilized society.
On May 16, 1882, the representatives of the four countries formally concluded an anti-Turkish pact in Vienna, with the overthrow of the Ottoman government as the core and the destruction of the Ottoman Empire as their mission.
The day after the Covenant was signed, the Vienna government formally declared war on the Ottoman Empire, citing the Ottomans' refusal to hand over the killers.
In the following week, Greece, Montenegro, and the Russian Empire declared war on the Ottoman Empire on their own grounds, and the Third Near East War broke out.
There are also pros and cons to having a few more allies. The most immediate effect was the change in Austria's battle plan.
The war came so suddenly that Russia, Montenegro, and Greece were not ready for war. Supplies could be provided by Austria, but the time for the troops to assemble had to be available.
In order not to have an embarrassing situation in which the Austrian army was fighting the front line and the allies were cheering in the rear, Franz decisively ordered the military to suspend the offensive.
A strange scene appeared, the war in the Near East broke out, but only the Austrian Navy was in action.