St. Petersburg, since the failure of Crown Prince Alexandrovich's trip to Austria, the tsarist government has realized that the Russian-Austrian alliance has come to an end.

Freezing three feet, not a day's cold. With the passage of time, contradictions between Russia and Austria have also accumulated.

Previously, the two governments relied on the alliance to silence discordant voices, and now they can't suppress them.

Russian-Austrian relations have changed since the accession of Alexander II. The personal inclination of the emperor of a monarchy and his influence on politics should not be underestimated.

After the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War, Austria did not fully support the Russians, and in addition to interests, it was more dissatisfied with the tsarist government.

No big country is willing to be the little brother of others, especially after the balance of strength between the two sides has changed. The initial game between Russia and Austria was actually a struggle for the dominance of the alliance.

Alexander II was right, but the bureaucrats of the tsarist government lost the Russo-Prussian War, and the Russian Empire went from prosperity to decline and lost the dominance of the alliance.

If the tsarist government was willing to throw in the towel, then the matter would be over, and the Russo-Austrian alliance would remain the most important political force in Europe.

Obviously, this is impossible, and the arrogance of the Russian Empire cannot be defeated in a single battle. Turning over the long history of the Russian Empire, when worse times have passed than now, how could the Tsar really give up hegemony on the European continent?

Franz had little interest in continental hegemony, but Austria's geographical location had already been decided, and it was impossible to avoid it in the struggle for continental hegemony.

The size of Austria is there, and no one dares to believe it, even if they say that they are not interested. In that case, you can only bite the bullet. It is against this background that France and Austria are jointly dividing up the hegemony of the European continent.

For the tsarist government, the collapse of the Russian-Austrian alliance was indeed a blow, but the alliance between the two countries was still a few years away from expiration, and there was no threat in the short term.

The most important thing now is to find a financier who is willing to pay in time, otherwise Alexander II's reforms will not be carried out.

The ideal option was, of course, Austria, where the tsarist government could use foreign debt to tie the two countries closer together. Now the Vienna government dares to abandon the Russo-Austrian alliance, and that's because they don't owe enough.

If the tsarist government's debt to Austria is not 183 million Aegis now, but 1.83 billion Aegis, it is estimated that no matter what, the Vienna government will only be able to hold on.

According to the current situation, when the Russian-Austrian alliance expires, the debts owed by the tsarist government will have to be repaid.

This is not something that Alexander II could delay, the Austrians simply took a cut from the Russian tariffs, which had more than twelve million Aegis per year.

The higher the tsarist government set tariffs, the faster this repayment would be. In addition, there are some mineral resources in kind, and Russia is still able to repay more than 90 percent of its debts every year.

mortgages, not repaid by Alexander II. Otherwise, Russia and Austria will immediately turn their faces, and when Austria closes the trade route between the two countries, Russia will soon have an economic crisis.

There is no way, it is determined by geographical location. If Austria had blocked the door, more than 70 percent of Russia's exports would have been ruined.

Grain from the Ukrainian region does not go through the Dardanelles, and it can't be transported to St. Petersburg by land, and then loaded on ships for export, right?

According to the current international situation, if Russia and Austria really turn their faces, the Russian Empire will be completely blocked. Austria agitated behind the scenes, sponsored two ironclad ships, and Prussia dared to block the Baltic Sea.

Now it is the era of ironclads, and the pile of broken ships of the Russian Navy can be dismantled and used as firewood. Most of them are wooden warships that have not been updated for more than 20 years, what do you want?

It's not that Alexander II didn't pay attention to the navy and didn't know that the warships were going to be replaced, but the government really didn't have money in his pocket. From the beginning of the Crimean War, the finances of the tsarist government were never better.

Prussia did not worry about getting closer to Alexander II, although the Kingdom of Prussia had abandoned the strategy of unifying the German regions, but Austria had not, and this was a hurdle that could not be overcome.

Alexander II asked: "How are the talks with the British, will they give us a loan?" ”

This loan was extraordinary, and the Russians repaid it with grain. If the British agreed to grant this loan, the tsarist government would send 1.2 million tons of wheat, 400,000 tons of corn, and 300,000 tons of barley to England every year......

It seems to be a loan, but in fact it is better to say that it is a grain export. It's just that in the international agricultural market, the competitiveness of Russian agricultural products is too low.

If dumping is carried out directly at low prices, it will become unprofitable for Russian agricultural products to bring down international grain prices and grow them at relatively high costs.

In order to avoid the worst-case scenario, Russian economists have proposed loan bundling to contract a country's grain imports at a price lower than the international market.

The reduced profit is used as the cost of the loan. It's better than fighting a price war with competitors and losing money in the end.

"Your Majesty, the British demand that the amount of the loan be halved, and that the price of grain be reduced by one-fifth, which is equivalent to 70 per cent of the present international grain export price."

The answer of Foreign Minister Clarence Ivanov made Alexander II's face change greatly, grain exports are not a profiteering industry, and if you give a seven-percent discount, you will not even be able to recover the cost.

Alexander II did not give up and asked: "What if we promise to join the free trade system and peg the ruble to the pound?" ”

Clarence Ivanov replied: "If this is the case, there is no problem with the loan, but the price of grain is still not negotiable.

British grain merchants believe that the current international grain prices are too high and will fall sharply in the near future, and insist on accepting only 7% off the current market price. ”

If the total value of Russian agricultural products that Russia plans to send into Britain is as high as 38 million pounds according to the current market price, if you discount it by 7%, it will only be 26.6 million pounds, and the difference between the prices is as high as 11.4 million pounds.

Aleksandrovich said with a blue face: "The British are blackmailing, and we absolutely cannot accept such conditions!"

At a 70% discount from the market price, we would have to be able to make a profit from grain exports, but we would lose a fortune.

Unless the purchase price of grain is further reduced, the price of grain in the country is already very low, and if it is further reduced, the people will lose money by planting the land. ”

Food is a comprehensive commodity, and transportation has always been a big problem. The Russian Empire was inaccessible and expensive to transport, and these costs had to be taken into account.

Usually this part of the cost ends up on the peasants who produce the grain, and now if it is exported at a 7% discount on the market price, and then falls on the peasants, they can only go bankrupt.

The peasant class, the largest support group of the Tsar, was the cornerstone of the rule, and if they were to be driven bankrupt, the rule of the Tsarist government would be unstable.

Alexander II sighed, shook his head and said: "The collapse of international food prices has become a foregone conclusion, and the judgment of the British is not wrong.

The international market is so big, and we have increased our grain output so much, and once it is put on the market, international grain prices will collapse.

To put it mildly, if all of Russia's surplus grain can be shipped out, even if other grain exporting countries stop exporting, there will be no food panic in Europe. ”

This is the sequelae of the great land reclamation, and although the domestic land problem has been solved, overcapacity of grain has also become a serious social problem.

What is even more tragic is that the peasants who have just been given land are highly motivated to produce crops, and Russia's grain production is still rising.

With the fall in grain prices, the Russian grain brewing industry began to flourish. However, ordinary people cannot afford this kind of high-end wine, and the market is very limited. It is impossible to rely on the brewing industry to consume excess grain capacity.

Aleksandrovich thought for a moment and said: "Then guide the farmers to switch to cash crops, and we will plant what is lacking in the market."

If domestic grain production is not cut, the international grain market will sooner or later burst. As far as I know, the Vienna government is already interested in abolishing the agricultural tax.

Their grain production costs are already lower than ours, and they have a complete supporting industrial processing chain, and their ability to resist risks is definitely stronger than ours. If a price war breaks out, I am afraid that there will be millions of bankrupt people in China every year. ”

Alexander II nodded, he did not suspect Alexandrovich of exaggeration. This is a fact, except for the Ukrainian regions, the cost of grain production in other lands in Russia is relatively high.

Even in the regions of Ukraine, due to underexploitation, agricultural production technology here is backward. Obviously it is black soil, but as a result, the grain yield per mu is still not as good as that of Austria.

This is the aftermath of the lack of markets, since the continent has a total population of less than 300 million, and the countries themselves produce more than half of the food they need.

The only way to expand the grain export market is to first storm the market with low-priced grain and crush the agricultural production of various countries.

Alexander II originally planned that as long as the agriculture of the countries was washed out, then Russia would have the lifeblood of the European continent.

The plan was a good plan, the only problem was the lack of financial resources of the tsarist government. The strength of the competitors is too strong, and they play at low prices, and while they crush the agriculture of various countries, they may also crush the Russian agriculture.

In fact, not only Alexander II had this plan, but Franz also made a similar plan, but in the end he gave it up.

There is no way, it is the colonial era, which great power lacks a piece of grain-producing land? The local food production is insufficient, can't the colonies find a way?

If you can't do a monopoly, you can't get along with your wallet if you play low-price dumping. At present, agriculture is still profitable, and there is no need to make no profits.

Alexander II was in a depressed mood and said earnestly: "It is necessary to reduce grain production capacity and change to cash crops, but this cannot be done overnight." Grain cultivation is relatively simple, and farmers are used to it.

If we want to change this traditional farming model, we have to learn from Austria. Aleksandrovich, you have also been to Austria and should know how developed their agriculture is. Where is the gap, have you noticed? ”

Aleksandrovich was lost in thought, he did not stay in Austria for long, and his knowledge was confined to Vienna, most of the time through newspapers.

"There should be climate, transportation, agricultural technology, and supporting processing industries. We have no way to make up for the gap in climate, and we can slowly catch up with the last three points. ”

Alexander II nodded and said, "In that case, then we will suffer this loss."

If we do not reach an agreement with the British now, I am afraid that after the autumn harvest in a few months, we will not be able to sell even 70% of the current market price, and no matter how low the price is, it will be better than smashing it in our hands.

If there is no large-scale natural disaster, when our grain harvest enters the international market, this year is destined to be a cold agricultural winter, and a large number of agricultural products will be unsalable.

Anyway, you will lose money when the time comes, so it is better to get the loan first. At that time, we can also reduce agricultural taxes and reduce farmers' losses.

Only when the railway is built and the domestic transportation problem is solved, will the Russian Empire have a future, so let the British be proud of it now!

If it weren't for the fight against Austria, maybe the British wouldn't have opened this condition. They are not short of this batch of cheap grain, and the grain processing industry in Britain is not very developed.

If the London government does not give preferential policies, these grain merchants will not invest in the agro-processing industry, after all, Austria is the hegemon in this field, and they have no advantage. ”

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