Chapter 108, Juncker VS Civil Official + Capital
In March 1867, Austria conducted a massive military exercise on the Austro-Prussian border, which terrified the Prussians.
They had just finished the Prussian War, and they were busy licking their wounds, but they did not have the courage to come back to the Austro-Prussian War.
If a fight breaks out at this time, not only will all the previous results be spit out, but it will also be difficult to protect yourself.
In the royal palace in Berlin, Foreign Secretary McCkett said: "The Austrians are demonstrating, they will not provoke war in this period."
Once the war broke out, the Russians would certainly continue it, and the tsarist government would be able to recover Poland and the Baltic region as long as it followed behind and played soy sauce.
This was not what the Vienna government wanted to see, and a strong Russian empire was not in their interests. The Russian-Austrian alliance exists only because of the temporary existence of interests, and sooner or later they will come up against each other for the sake of European hegemony.
There is also the present international situation, which the Vienna Government cannot afford not to take into account. None of the countries of Europe want to see a domineering Austria, provoked a war at this time, and they will fall into isolation.
If, after the outbreak of war, the French attacked the Rhineland, would the Viennese government intervene or not?
Intervention, which is likely to lead to a full-scale war between France and Austria; If they don't interfere, how can they claim to be the leaders of the German region? ”
The reason for being truly fearless, McKate did not say. The fight was certainly unwinnable, and the Kingdom of Prussia was now exhausted.
However, as long as the Berlin government is shameless, there is still a chance to trick Austria and reverse the current passive state.
In the event of an invasion of the Rhineland, the Prussian government could simply throw in the towel and join the new Holy Roman Empire, demanding that Austria defend the territorial integrity of Germany.
The Franco-Austrian war was detonated and the situation changed. If the French gain the upper hand, or if the war is stalemate, they can turn against each other again.
Don't doubt the discipline of politicians, as long as the interests are big enough, there is nothing that cannot be done.
The pillars of the Kingdom of Prussia were the Junker aristocracy, an class of Viennese government that could not afford to buy them, even if they wanted to.
Privately, the two sides had been in contact for a long time, and if Franz was willing to compromise, the German regions could be unified at any time.
The Junker aristocracy opposed joining the new Holy Roman Empire only for the sake of profit. If Prussia could attain the same status as Austria and safeguard their interests, then they could be united at any time.
Obviously, this was impossible, and if there was a compromise, the new Holy Roman Empire would be divided again.
An empire can only have one core, and if it becomes two, then it becomes Prussia with a group of small states in the empire against Austria.
From the very beginning, Franz made a decision - the rights of the state must be bound.
After so many years of hard work, he took back the diplomatic power, the coinage power, the command of the army and part of the financial power, how could he hand it over again?
The Minister of the Army and the Navy, Ron, questioned: "This is just wishful thinking on your part, and does not represent the position of the Vienna government."
Moreover, Austria's emergence as the leader of the German region was based on strength, not public opinion. They first gained strength, and then they gained the support of the people.
The influence of nationalism was indeed great, but it was not enough to influence the decisions of the Vienna government. The exchange of the Rhineland for the unification of Germany is not a loss for the Austrians, right?
You know, Austria has always been jealous of us, and we are the only ones in Germany who threaten their strength. ”
As a representative of the military, Ron is a proponent of the supremacy of force. This was determined by the state of the Kingdom of Prussia, and everyone was made a champion of the supremacy of force.
Ron didn't value Austria's influence. In his opinion, strength comes first. Now Austria has enough strength, and nothing else matters.
As long as the German region can be unified, the Rhineland region will be lost, and it will be scolded by the people. In the future, as long as it is recovered, these problems can be washed away.
It's not just his personal opinion, but many people have the same opinion. Some non-governmental organizations are still advocating the theory of reunification at a cost, that is, paying a certain price in exchange for national reunification.
Specifically, the territories west of the Rhine were ceded to the French and Prussian Poland was ceded to the Russians.
Some people also conducted an in-depth analysis, arguing that in this way, the Kingdom of Prussia would shrink by more than half, which would make the unified empire more stable.
This was the most feared by the Junker aristocracy, and if Austria only annexed a reduced version of the Kingdom of Prussia, they would really lose a lot.
The Kingdom of Prussia was larger than all the states except Austria combined, and the existence of such a large state would obviously weaken the authority of the central government.
If Austria wanted to dominate the new Holy Roman Empire, it would have to suppress the Kingdom of Prussia and keep it under control. The two sides are naturally on opposite sides, and there is no possibility of compromise.
This view does not include shrewd politicians, only those who can see how bad the situation will be if Austria reunifies the German regions.
Politically, isolation was inevitable, and the great empires of Central Europe were naturally hostile to Europe; Militarily, it is also the enemy of the whole world.
This enemy comes from both the continent and the sea. There is nothing to say on land, just look at the map to see that you have to confront France and Russia at the same time.
The situation at sea was even worse, with the Austrian navy having to confront Britain and France in the Mediterranean, the Russians in the Baltic, and Britain and France in the Atlantic.
This is still the result of ignoring small countries, in fact, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, the Nordic Confederation, will all be enemies of Austria, this is determined by geopolitics.
With the exception of Switzerland and Belgium, which have a high probability of neutrality, the continent is full of enemies, even Montenegro and Greece, which are not worth mentioning.
No, Greece and Montenegro are already on opposite sides of Austria. Their dream of becoming a great power was blocked by Austria.
If it weren't for the fact that there were too many external enemies, why would Franz finish suppressing the Russians and release another Great France? It's not about reducing stress and distracting people.
The Russians declined, and Austria was able to get out of the dilemma of fighting on two fronts. Even if it is an operational mistake that detonates a full-scale war in Europe, the Eastern Front can be resolved in the shortest possible time.
To provoke the ambitions of the French, not to mention the deliberate indulgence of the appearance of Greater France.
They are also the public enemies of Europe, and when two giants appear at the same time, European governments will be confused in an instant, and it will be difficult to come up with a response plan in a short time.
The two powers are in a state of confrontation, and no matter which one falls, the other will become the hegemon of Europe. Who knows how to do such a multiple-choice question?
With this hesitation, the situation changes.
To put it bluntly, it's a gamble. Franz bet that after the unification of the German region, he could first complete the internal integration. Then he relied on diplomacy to provoke the internal contradictions of Greater France, and finally used national strength to overwhelm France.
The French, on the other hand, were betting that the French army would be better able to fight, and that after the establishment of Greater France, they could defeat Austria directly on the battlefield after the unification of Germany.
In addition to the needs of each party, the existence of the Franco-Austrian alliance also means to work together to clear the field. Without first solving other competitors, the two sides will not be at ease in a decisive battle.
Although there is no allusion in Europe that "sandpipers compete with each other, fishermen profit", everyone still understands this truth.
Obviously, this is not what the Berlin government knows. If they knew that France and Austria had formed an alliance, they probably wouldn't have bothered to make up any "Greater Prussian" plan, but would have hurried to find someone to huddle together for warmth.
Foreign Secretary McKnight sneered: "So you mean to hand over the Silesian region?" Do not forget that the Austrians also offered to buy Prussian Saxony.
This kind of compromise and concession will only give them an inch, where can we go? If there is a compromise, how will the government explain it to the people? ”
Moltke, Chief of the General Staff, retorted: "Of course it is not for nothing, we can exchange interests with Austria, and now we need the support of Vienna, at least acquiesce......"
……
Looking at the arguing crowd, the painting style is very discordant. The military advocates compromise and the government advocates toughness, which seems to be reversed no matter how you look at it.
It is indeed reversed, the initial advocate of compromise is the civilian government officials, and the military advocates a tough response. But as the situation changed, this was reversed.
In fact, this is just a continuation of the struggle for power in the Berlin government. Now that the civilian faction is at an absolute disadvantage in the struggle for government power, and the decision-making power has fallen into the hands of the military, they are not willing to accept defeat and naturally want to do something.
In the face of rights, many bottom lines do not exist. The civilian faction has reached a critical moment of life and death, and once the London negotiations are concluded, the military will have a greater say in the government with a big victory over Russia.
The victorious military naturally advocates seeking stability, and as for the sequelae brought about by the land cession, it is actually not so serious.
Cutting the land also depends on how to cut the land, as long as the operation is lost, it is within the control range. What the Kingdom of Prussia lacked now was not land, but population, and especially the Germans.
The area of East Prussia was empty and urgently needed to be filled with people, and the newly occupied areas needed stable places for immigrants. Just pack up and take away all the people and finances on the ceded land, and lose a piece of white land in Austria.
This was also the fulfillment of the agreement, and left the Vienna government speechless. The original agreement was only to cede the Silesian region, but it was not agreed to include the population and property above.
If you want to do something, you can also leave a part of the people, transfer all the local industries to these people, and then come to a non-violent non-cooperation.
In this society where private property is sacrosanct, where is the legal astronomy written, people do not cooperate by legal means, and the Vienna government is powerless.
Of course, this powerlessness is only for a short time. The solution is always thought of by people, and once the temperance is lost, many ways can solve the problem.
There is also an unspeakable reason for the change in the position of the military, which is that the Junker aristocracy needed labor to cultivate the land for them. In this era, the degree of mechanization was not high, and the demand for labor in agriculture was not small at all.
The area of East Prussia was the stronghold of the Junker aristocracy, and now that the people are gone, they cannot find enough labor to resume production.
There were also new occupations, much of which would also fall into the hands of the Junker aristocracy through post-war bounties, and which would also need to be cultivated by labor.
If there are no local people, all of them are cultivated by local people, and language communication alone is a big problem.
Moreover, the aristocracy also needs a foundation to rule the place, and the locals have rebelled, and they also need to suppress it, how can they do it without their own people?
The Silesian region was taken from Austria, where industry was dominant, and the capitalists were even stronger, even if they lost the Junker nobility.
Prussian Saxony was similar, with a very good economic development, but the time of joining the Kingdom of Prussia was too short and it was not the basic plate of the Junker aristocracy.
The civilian faction was different, and in order to compete with the military, they had to form an alliance with the capitalists at home. As the spokesman for the interests of the bourgeoisie in the government, it is natural to protect the interests of the bourgeoisie.
Theoretically, by transferring all the population and property, the losses of the Kingdom of Prussia could be minimized. Ordinary people can also get government compensation, which seems to be fine.
However, the interests of the capitalists cannot be guaranteed, and factories cannot be built anywhere, and even if all the conditions are met, they will have to re-operate their contacts and sales networks after changing regions.
This is not something that the government can make up for with the little compensation money, and in the process of this change, they are likely to be replaced by others.