Vienna Palace

Foreign Secretary Wesenberg smiled and said, "Your Majesty, in order to seek our support, both Prussia and Prussia have offered almost the same conditions.

The Russians promised that if we supported them, they could get Silesia after the war; Prussia promised to cede Silesia after the war as long as we remained neutral. ”

The Russians promised to be generous, and the tsarist government would not mind bribing Austria with Prussian interests.

The promise of the Berlin government, that is, was forced to do nothing, and they were not willing to give up Silesia. In order to win the war, they had to stabilize Austria.

Winning this war, their efforts can be recouped in double their efforts; Having lost the war, Galicia simply could not hold it.

Despite all these years, the Austrians still have a grudge against Silesia. Especially in recent years, as the power has increased, there has been a growing call in the Vienna government to reclaim the Silesian region.

As soon as the Kingdom of Prussia was weakened, Austria would definitely fall into the ground, and now the Berlin government had to stabilize Austria first.

Looking at Felix, who was about to speak, Franz asked, "What does the Prime Minister think?" ”

Prime Minister Felix replied: "Your Majesty, neither of these two is the best choice, what we need is a defeat for both Prussia and Russia."

Now our alliance with the Russians is an eyesore, and the countries of Europe are trying to break it up. If the tsarist government continues to win, we will only have more trouble in the future.

For us, the current Russian Empire is strong enough. If the tsarist government had completed its internal reforms, it would be difficult to say whether the Russian-Austrian alliance would still have value.

In the same way, a much stronger kingdom of Prussia is not in our interests. Europe is too small to accommodate so many powers. ”

Both Prussia and Russia are defeated, and this is the most ideal state. Not only can the Prussian hand interrupt Alexander II's reforms, but the Tsarist government will be even more incomplete than in history; At the same time, it could interrupt the ambitions of the Prussians, after which they never had a chance to rise.

But it was very difficult to do so, at least Franz did not think that Austria was capable of playing this balance.

The Kingdom of Prussia was doomed if it lost once, and on the surface the Russians could lose many times, but in fact it was very false, there were too many internal problems in the tsarist government, and Franz was not sure that they could afford to lose.

This is different from the war in the Near East, when the Russian army reached Constantinople at the gate, and all classes in the country supported the war, and no matter how big the losses were, the tsarist government had to hold on.

Franz thought for a moment and said: "Don't have this kind of idealistic plan, it's easy to fall apart, and in the end both sides are not pleased."

According to the actual needs, we only need to do two things:

1. The reform of using the Prussians to disrupt the tsarist government, as long as the Russians could not win in a short time, Alexander II would make concessions to the conservatives, and this reform would not be complete;

Second, the Kingdom of Prussia could not become bigger, it was enough to have a strong country in the German region, and there was no need to add another competitor.

The matter of strengthening Prussia can be done by Britain and France, and what we have to do is to give blood transfusions to the tsarist government when necessary, and strengthen their determination to fight. ”

It is impossible to please both ends, and if you really do that, the final result is most likely to be disgusted by both sides, and you will become not human inside and out.

The role of the Russian-Austrian alliance is decreasing, but if the pact is not dissolved, Austria cannot openly stab the Russians.

What is at stake is Austria's credibility in international politics and diplomacy, and a country without credibility should never want to be respected by everyone.

Fortunately, the Prussian government was smart enough not to play any undeclared war, and did not take the initiative to invade Russia, otherwise Austria would have been dragged into the war according to the Allies.

The current situation is that the Kingdom of Prussia invaded Denmark, and the Russians declared war on the Kingdom of Prussia in order to protect this little brother.

This situation is not within the scope of the mandatory participation of the Russian-Austrian Alliance.

Just because the Kingdom of Denmark is an ally of the Russians does not mean that they are also allies of Austria, and the Vienna government does not need to side with the Russians.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Karl reminded: "Your Majesty, the tsarist government is very poor financially, and the Russians are slow to act, largely due to financial constraints.

Not long ago, the bonds issued by the tsarist government were cold in the capital markets, and investors feared that the Russians would default on their debts.

According to the analysis of the information we have, if the Russians' finances do not improve, the tsarist government may again declare bankruptcy. ”

There is a provision in the Russian-Austrian alliance: without prejudice to its own interests, it is obliged to provide material assistance to its allies.

Theoretically, it is a matter of choice for the Vienna government to help in such a situation. However, how to support it depends on the actual situation.

Providing loans is aid, and donating materials is also aid, and the specific situation still depends on interests.

If you don't have enough benefits, you can just take some weapons and ammunition from the warehouse to make up the numbers, and you can also cope with the past.

The Chancellor's attitude was very obvious, that is, the tsarist government was very poor financially and would most likely go bankrupt after the war, and there was no need for Austria to jump into this pit.

Fiscal bankruptcy is never new on the European continent. The tsarist government, in particular, declared bankruptcy as soon as the government debt exceeded its capacity.

The bankruptcy of the government means that the previous debts are suspended indefinitely, which can also be understood as non-payment. The tsarist government did a lot of this kind of thing, and many creditors were pitted with tears in their hearts.

Of course, not every country is eligible to pay its debts, and there is another way to collect money in this era - to collect debts by force.

Even if a small country declares bankruptcy, it usually only relies on its personal debts, and the debts of the great powers still have to be repaid, for example, the great powers regulate the finances.

Mexico is a negative example, and even if you don't have the strength, you dare to learn from others. In 1862, President Juárez announced a moratorium on debt payments, and then the French national debt owners went to the door.

This method did not work against the Russians, and no creditor could afford to go to St. Petersburg to ask for money. After the number of pits, no one in the capital market lent money to the tsar.

Franz was surprised and asked, "How bad have the Russians' finances become?" ”

In his memory, the finances of the tsarist government, although bad, did not reach the point of collapse. Even if you fight the Russo-Russian War, you will not go bankrupt immediately.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Karl explained: "Your Majesty, in modern times, ordinary European countries have tried to repay their debts as much as they can, and few have relied on their debts, but the Russians are an exception.

According to past experience, when the debts of the tsarist government reached a certain level, they would declare bankruptcy. Recently, we gathered information that the tsarist government had prepared a plan for bankruptcy. ”

Franz had nothing to say, in fact, in the Middle Ages, there were many cases of kings declaring bankruptcy and defaulting on their debts, almost every few decades.

Many capitalists were cried, and among them, the Jewish capitalists were the most pitted. This is because they are too rich, and most of the money is gathered in their hands, who will they borrow money from?

Of course, there are also many kings who have been pitted. Jewish capital is hated because they often bury nails in loan contracts, and many kings who borrow money are fooled and have to pay a lot of extra interest.

It turns out that the rule is not easy to mess with, especially in the era of monarchy, and those who dare to cheat them out of their money have to pay a price. This is how most of the anti-Jewish movement on the European continent came about.

In modern times, the power of capital has continued to grow, and there are fewer and fewer cases of governments repaying their debts through bankruptcy, especially international loans with the background of foreign powers.

In the era when everyone pays their debts together, it naturally doesn't matter, anyway, the world is as black as a crow. But all of a sudden, everyone else starts to follow the rules, and it's very prominent that you're left alone.

As soon as the creditors propagated, the credibility of the tsarist government was ruined. Without credibility, many things are not easy to do, and there is an embarrassing situation in which the Russians use gold and silver coins.

Franz thought for a moment and said: "Then we will also tighten the monetary policy externally and remind the domestic financial community to be more vigilant."

Support for the Russians was mainly in kind. All large loans to Russia must have collateral. ”

This can be regarded as a fall into the ground. These restrictions undoubtedly made it more difficult for the tsarist government to raise funds from the Austrian capital market. However, as long as the tsarist government does not pay its debts, it does not matter how much collateral it takes.

With collateral, even if the Russians declare bankruptcy, it will not be possible to repay these debts. After all, the value of the collateral usually exceeds the loan.

Franz also had to do it, you must know that not long ago, the tsarist government used Alaska to offset the debt of 2.57 million Aegis, and also owed a favor. If it weren't really untenable, the Russians would never have done it.

……

While Austria feared the bankruptcy of the Russians, the government in London faced the same problem, and the Kingdom of Prussia, the most militaristic country on the continent, was not a rich man.

Now lending money to the government in Berlin is no less risky than lending money to the Russians. War bonds issued by the Berlin government have been chilled in London's financial markets.

If the Kingdom of Prussia had won the bet, it would have been possible to pay it back; If the Kingdom of Prussia had lost, or if both had lost, these investments would have been lost.

There were not many people who were optimistic about Prussia, and everyone was not willing to take the risk with money. Even though the interest rate on bonds has increased to 15.8% per annum, sales are still not optimistic.

As the financier of the Kingdom of Prussia, the London government could not afford to watch this happen. There was not enough money, what did the Kingdom of Prussia do to fight this war?

Chancellor of the Exchequer Agarwal said: "The war bonds we have issued to the Prussians have so far only sold £1,869,000, which is far from the £15 million issued.

The people were not optimistic that they would win the war, and there was no way to sell the bond unless someone could guarantee it.

The finances of the Kingdom of Prussia were very bad, and from 1848 to the present day they were in deficit.

A number of domestic financial institutions considered Prussia's finances on the verge of bankruptcy and refused to lend to them. ”

It's not easy to be a gold owner, this is to invest real money. The cost of the Russo-Prussian War is destined to be a huge expense, and the possibility of losing all money is very high.

Prime Minister John Russell rubbed his forehead and said, "So, we have not raised a fifth of the aid we promised to the Kingdom of Prussia in two months?" ”

According to the agreement, the British were to provide a loan of 10 million pounds to the Kingdom of Prussia, plus the issuance of 15 million pounds of war bonds.

The reality is that apart from the £5 million advance from the London government to the Prussian government, there is no one in the capital markets at all.

This is the aftermath of the war in the Near East, Britain and France did not win against the Russians, let alone the Kingdom of Prussia?

Even the government in London did not think that the Kingdom of Prussia would be able to win the war. To support them, it was only to interrupt the reforms of the Russians, and not to count on the victory of the Kingdom of Prussia.

"Yes, Your Excellency Prime Minister. Everyone did not have confidence in Prussia, so they were more cautious when investing. Chancellor of the Exchequer Agarwal replied

Supporting the Kingdom of Prussia to fight the Russians, the British people are still very supportive, but it is different when it comes to paying money.

Some newspapers in London were betting on when the Kingdom of Prussia would fail.

The most optimistic estimate is that the Kingdom of Prussia will be able to hold out for a year and then lose the war; The most pessimistic were that the Berlin government would surrender within a month.

It was widely believed that the Kingdom of Prussia would win the war unless Britain and France themselves entered the war, and defeat was only a matter of time.