Chapter 24, the secret crossing of Chen Cang
The turmoil in Austria's financial markets is manageable. Everyone knows that the Russian-Austrian alliance has not yet broken down, and even if the Russians are in debt, they will finally rely on their allies.
Now that the Russian-Austrian negotiations have reached an impasse, to some extent, it can be regarded as good news. It's always better to talk about something than nothing at all.
Prior to this, the Russians had communicated with several countries without success. Many financial institutions were cried, and the capitalists were forced to choose the golden cicada to get out of their shells.
Among them, Paris and London are the two financial markets that have the greatest impact, and don't think that if you are an enemy, you will not be able to lend. In the face of interests, capitalists do not care about cooperating with anyone.
The Russians mortgaged the proceeds of grain exports, and there was no fear that the tsarist government would default in advance. As long as the Russians sold their grain, they could collect money.
However, the plan did not change quickly, and with the loss of the granary of the Bode Plain, coupled with the fact that the civil war had cost the Moscow region, the Russians now had little grain to export at all.
Large-scale land reclamation is manual work, and the more you work, the more you eat, and the demand for food has also increased.
Since the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War, the Russians have stopped exporting agricultural products to Britain and France, and even imported grain from Austria for a time.
The Russians withdrew from the grain export market, and this share was naturally taken by others. The so-called mortgage of grain export earnings has now become a joke.
It is better to expect the Russians to pay off by selling grain, but it is better to say that the Russians have lost the market and want to return to the market in the future, and ask them to help open up sales.
Otherwise, if the grain cannot be sold, what will be used to repay the debt?
According to the current situation, the Russians will not be able to return to the international market for two or three years. Investors could not have waited that long, and the capitalists naturally played with the Russians.
Simply declare the enterprise bankrupt, and these losses are passed on to ordinary people. When these bonds hit rock bottom, they can also manipulate the vests to be taken back again, waiting for the future to collect the debts from the Russians.
Of course, debt collection is very unlikely. The gap between the strength of an individual and a country is still very large, and even a consortium is unwilling to compete with a large country like the Russian Empire.
Without the government's intervention, these problems are difficult to solve. Just think about the bad international relations between the two sides, and everyone knows that there is no play.
Restricting the entry of grain for Russians looks good. However, in the face of interests, the capitalists have no discipline.
As long as the Russians are willing to lower prices, Britain and France will cooperate with the grain capitalists in their own countries. When you get to the market, who knows where the grain comes from?
If it were not for the fact that the economic crisis had just passed, the financial turmoil that had now erupted in Britain and France would have been enough to trigger an economic crisis.
The telegram brought people closer together, and the financial turmoil in London and Paris soon reached Vienna.
Larger market turmoil has occurred, and speculators can no longer do it, preferring to default rather than pay their Russian debts ahead of schedule.
If it weren't for the fact that securities companies have opened default payment windows, and Wells Fargo Securities has bought Russian bonds at low prices, which has appeased the people, and now Austria is also lively.
In Paris, for example, at least 180,000 people took part in demonstrations against the Russians' default.
Under normal circumstances, there are absolutely not so many people in Paris who buy Russian bonds, not even with their families.
To Franz's surprise, this scene also played out on the streets of New York, and it seems that the Americans were also cheated by the Russians.
Once again, it turns out that it is risky to be allies with the Russians. The United States and Russia have not had time to form an alliance, and the Americans have been passively recruited.
It was not the securities companies that suffered the worst, but the banks that took loans from the tsarist government. Russian bonds are also one of the most difficult to sell, and this sales volume has always been very impressive.
Worldwide, if you can sell one or two hundred million Aegis, you will reach the limit. Even if there is a pit, it will not pit everyone.
Bank loans are different, although the money lent out is depositors', it is also the bank's own bad debt.
True, the tsarist government did mortgage a mess of taxes, and now the Russians are not going to cash it out.
The tsarist government played the scoundrel game and left the creditors to collect their own taxes. No creditor would dare to go to the Russian Empire to collect his own taxes.
Not to mention whether you can receive the tax, even if you do receive the tax, can you take it safely?
No one wants to try to test the temperament of the poor and crazy tsarist government, this kind of death.
In the face of high interest rates, banks did not resist the temptation. Always thinking that the Russians have joined the civilized world, they will follow the rules of the game.
The only thing to do is to ignore the fact that once the tsarist government was poor and insane, it could do anything, and now they paid a terrible price for it.
Securities companies can get out of their shells, but banks can't follow suit, right? The investment costs of the two sides are not of the same magnitude at all, and the social impact they bring is also very different.
In this era, there are not many customers of securities companies, and they are basically middle-class starters, and they have not yet reached the point where they are all over the street to attract people to sell wealth management products.
Even if it is bankrupt, it will affect so many thousands of people, and if it can have tens of thousands of customers, it is a large company.
And not everyone bought the bonds of the Russians, and even if they went bankrupt, the social threat was not great.
Banks are different, and the standards for depositors are not so high. Their customer base is much larger, and once they declare bankruptcy, it can easily cause bad social repercussions and cause government intervention.
Moreover, although the loss this time is not small, it has not yet reached the point of killing everyone. It's easy to start a bank, but it's not easy to build credibility and win over depositors.
Now is the last era of the aristocracy, the era that belongs to the capitalists has not yet fully come, and most of the countries except the two United States are dominated by the aristocracy.
Including Britain and France, it was the aristocracy that suppressed the capitalists. It's just that their advantage is not obvious enough, unlike Austria, Russia, and Prussia, which completely controlled the government by the aristocracy.
In the event of a large amount of bad debt, banks will inevitably have to shrink their monetary policy for a period of time in order to cope with a possible run crisis.
This is undoubtedly worse for securities companies that want to raise funds.
Inside Wells Fargo, Phillip Potter roared, "What? Two percent of the monthly interest, why don't you grab it? ”
Not all the way, not on the same boat. The bank in which Phillip Potter holds a stake is also in a debt crisis with Russia, and now it is too busy to protect itself and have no ability to save him.
I had no choice but to come to Wells Fargo. For no other reason, the main reason is that Wells Fargo has never taken loans to Russia, and at the same time it is one of the four largest banks in Austria and has strong financial strength.
Albert, the account manager, said with a straight face, "I'm sorry, Mr. Phillippoter. This is a high-risk loan, and we have to add the risk cost of the capital. ”
A high-risk loan made Phillip Potor wake up from a dream, and hurriedly asked: "Do you still have to pay a nine-percent discount on the loan amount, and still repay the principal and interest on a monthly basis, and even deduct the principal and interest of the first year?" ”
Albert, the account manager, smiled and said, "Yes, Mr. Phillippoter." I didn't expect you to know so much about the banking industry, have you been to other banks before? ”
Although Phillip Potter didn't show it on his face, he had already scolded in his heart. I am also a shareholder of a bank, how can I not know this kind of trick?
It's just that when he saw these routines at the beginning, Philip Potter was very happy, after all, they were used to trap others, and now that it was his turn, the situation changed.
According to a series of routines, you can get 60% of the loan, and that's God bless.
If you are unlucky, you can only get half of the loan funds if you directly put a discount in half, which is also a normal situation.
The actual amount of funds in hand is less, but the principal and interest of the debt still have to be repaid in full according to the agreement, and it is not possible to lose a shilling.
Phillip Potter went out of the door without looking back, if he borrowed this kind of loan shark who took advantage of the fire, it is estimated that he would have to work for Wells Fargo in the future.
Rather than that, he might as well sell his bonds and cash out Wells Fargo Securities to survive the crisis.
Thinking of this, Phillip Potor was even more depressed. It seems that Wells Fargo Securities is also a subsidiary of Wells Fargo, so it can't be avoided.
As for going to other banks, there is still no need to dream. Phillip Porter has visited more than a dozen large banks, and the conditions given by everyone are similar.
When robbing while the fire is burning, the banks are all the same. Banks cannot be blamed for this, because in the event of a run on the market, the risk factor of lending to foreign countries has increased greatly, and the interest rate has naturally increased.
As for the so-called interest rate of a few points of loans, it only exists in theory. In practice, except for policy loans, it is difficult for banks to accept such low interest rates.
At this point, it is natural that you can only cut the meat. Phillip Porter's funding gap is not too big, as long as he sells the Russian debt in his hand, he can get through the current hurdle.
In this way, although his losses are heavy, the risks are reduced. If he survives the crisis with loans and holds a large number of bonds of unknown value, he will go bankrupt if the Russian-Austrian negotiations fail.
There are many people who make the same choice, basically they are not strong enough financially, and they have to cut their flesh due to the crisis of life and death.
Schönbrunn Palace, looking at the increasing Russian debts in his hands, Palace Minister Mirabellon is not good.
That's right, this is another trumpet tossed out by Franz. However, the development was somewhat unexpected, and it became one of the four largest banks in Austria.
In the eyes of the Mirabellon courtier, this is a high-risk investment, and at the moment the Vienna government simply has no way to get the Russians to fully fulfill the contract. Now the possibility of buying Russian bonds and being able to pay them in a short period of time is almost zero.
If you wait for ten or eight years, you will lose a lot. The time cost of capital also needs to be taken into account.
Franz comforted: "Gong Xiang, don't worry. The Russians will pay these bonds, but not in our hands.
Now you can buy it at a low price, and when the harvest is almost done, we will sell it back to the Russian Empire. The Russian aristocrats would not mind making a small fortune.
It's a big deal that we sell it to them at half price, and that's double the profit. With these bonds, the nobles wouldn't mind using them to offset their taxes. ”
This trick can only be used once, and once the Russians are prepared and the legislation prohibits the tax deduction of bonds, it really cannot be sold.
Waiting for the tsarist government to pay in the future, this time will be at least ten years later, and it is not yet possible to guarantee full payment. For such a long time, what others thought Franz didn't know, anyway, he couldn't wait.
After listening to Franz's explanation, Mirabellon, the palace minister, fell into a stupor, which was completely beyond his imagination.
Originally, he also thought that Franz had inside information and could use his connections to get the tsarist government to pay the debt first.
Unexpectedly, the means were so brutal, and the greed of the nobles was directly used to solve the problem.