On July 16, 1880, after ten months of bitter fighting and hundreds of thousands of casualties, the Russian army finally captured Kesmolinsk, and the European world was in an uproar.

On this night, European politicians collectively lost sleep. Franz was also one of them, and if it weren't for the training of his years as an emperor, he couldn't help but hold meetings overnight.

The geographical location of Smolinsk determined the extraordinary nature of the battle. The Russian army has seized this fortress and has already gained the strategic initiative.

The balance of war began to tilt, and the Russians, who already had the advantage of national strength, put this advantage even more.

Leaving a buffer for the evening, the next day, Franz convened a high-level meeting of the government at the Vienna Palace.

In order to make a correct judgment, we must first understand the real situation on the battlefield in Prussia.

After many years as an emperor, Franz no longer took the historical data of his previous life seriously, he preferred to speak with facts, and did not take judgments for granted based on personal preferences.

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Chief of Staff Albrecht: "In order to fight for Smolinsk, the total number of troops invested by Prussia and Russia is as high as 1.87 million, the total number of troops invested by the Prussian army is 720,000, and the total number of troops invested by the Russian army is 1.15 million.

According to the analysis of the data provided by the military observer mission, the preliminary analysis shows that in the Smolinsk region alone, the total number of casualties between the two countries exceeds 700,000, of which about a quarter are killed in battle, and the exchange ratio between the two armies is about 1:1.3.

It can be said that both Prussia and Russia are doing their best for this campaign, the war was fought very fiercely, and the fortifications of the Smolinsk region are very perfect, and the sudden loss of defense is completely unexpected to us.

We do not have all the information in our hands and cannot accurately determine the real reasons for the fall of Smolinsk. Judging by the results of the Russian army, the Prussian army has suffered heavy losses, with more than 120,000 prisoners alone.

However, objections were raised in the Military Observer Mission. The proportion of the old and weak among the captives is too high, it is not like the main force of the Prussian army, and even the second-line troops may not be counted.

We checked with the military observer mission sent to the Prussian army and found that the Prussian army had indeed undergone a major change of guard half a month earlier. However, it was carried out in a very secret way, and the members of the Mission had no way to get close to each other.

If all this news is true, then the gold content of the Russians' "Smolinsk victory" will be greatly reduced.

We have not found any major moves on the part of the Prussian army, whether it is on the southern front or the northern front, there is no intention of launching an offensive, and the real purpose of concentrating the main forces remains to be studied. ”

The inference that "the Prussian army deliberately abandoned Smolinsk" has made many people unbelievable, including Franz.

Judging by the situation on the battlefield, the Prussian army did not have the slightest need to abandon Smolinsk. Relying on the local fortifications, even in another two or three years, the Russian army may not be able to conquer it.

In this context, it is simply not necessary to abandon strategic points and sacrifice a large number of cannon fodder troops.

"Luring the enemy into depth" is not something that no one has thought of, but the problem is that the price is inevitably too tragic. Even cannon fodder units with low combat effectiveness are valuable national defense forces.

Franz asked: "What diplomatic activity has the Berlin government been doing recently?" ”

Franz can't doubt it, the combined combat effectiveness of Wilhelm I + Moltke is absolutely undoubted, and losing Smolinsk so easily is obviously not a mistake they should make.

It's not an accident, it's purposeful. In addition to "luring the enemy into the depths," it is also possible to show the enemy's weakness and win more diplomatic assistance.

Foreign Secretary Wesenberg replied with some embarrassment: "Your Majesty, since the outbreak of the war, the diplomatic activities of the Pop-Po Federation have not stopped.

According to information from embassies around the country, the foreign envoys of the Pop Federation are in contact with dignitaries from various countries every week, even in a small neutral country like Switzerland. ”

This answer stunned Franz, who said that good diplomacy had become a daily activity when it got here.

I am in contact with dignitaries from various countries every day, who knows if there will be results?

As if sensing the Emperor's embarrassment, Wessenberg added: "By the way, not long ago, the Minister of the Poppo Federation to the Ottoman Federation had a secret conversation with the Sultan, and no one knows the exact contents.

The Berlin government also increased diplomatic relations with the countries of Central Asia and the Far Eastern Empire, and appeared to be interested in reorganizing the anti-Russian alliance.

There is no definite news yet, and it is estimated that it should not be very optimistic. There are a lot of internal problems in these countries, and anti-Russia is not active. ”

The last time an anti-Russian alliance was formed, it was mainly the work of the British, and the Berlin government just followed suit.

Unlike in the past, the Russian Empire was no longer John Bull's main enemy, and it was only natural that the London government would not continue to spend a lot of money against the Russians.

Diplomacy also has a cost, and if there are not enough benefits, why should everyone sell their lives?

Neither the Central Asian countries nor the Far Eastern Empire had the courage to bite a piece of meat from the woolly bear, and they were satisfied that they could guarantee their territorial integrity.

In Franz's view, it would be better to send someone to lobby the Japanese government than to persuade these countries, at least the adventurous man.

Of course, this doesn't make much practical sense. The Far East is too remote, and even if it were all lost, it would not affect the strength of the Russian Empire.

The most capable of helping the government in Berlin were the Nordic Confederation and the Ottoman Empire. It's a pity that the former was made by the Danes, and the tsarist government made a promise, so it couldn't be pulled at all.

Not to mention the latter, the Sultan is busy with internal reforms, and even if he wants to take revenge on the Russians, he is not enough.

Prime Minister Felix: "If that's the case, the chances of the Berlin government getting a lot of foreign aid are already slim. Britain and France cannot invest indefinitely, they must think about how to recover their costs.

Can we think that Moltke is repeating his old tricks, trying to follow the example of abandoning East Prussia in the last war, increasing the logistics supply lines of the Russian army, and luring the Russians into a decisive battle with them? ”

No one stipulates that the same tactic cannot be used twice, in fact, on the battlefield, no matter what tactic it is, as long as it is effective, it can be used forever.

Whether it is repeated or not, whether it will be seen as flawed, these are not problems, there will always be only one core - to win the war.

Chief of Staff Albrecht: "The possibility of this is not ruled out. Strategically, this is a ploy.

Even if the tsarist government knew about the plans of the Pubo Federation, it was impossible to order the Russian troops on the front line to stop because of the risks.

However, although their plan is good, it is difficult to say whether it will be realized. There is a risk in this, and it is impossible for no one in the Russian army to find out.

As long as we are cautious, advance steadily and step by step, and do not leave a chance for the Prussian army, the situation will be very different. ”

Speaking of which, Albrecht suddenly chose to shut up. "Steady and steady, step by step" is easy to say, but it is not easy to do at all.

There has never been a shortage of fools in this world, and there is no shortage of utilitarian lords in the army.

War has to serve the whole, and conversely, the part also affects the whole. As long as one thing goes wrong, the original flawless strategic plan becomes full of holes in an instant.

Albrecht had no confidence in the execution capabilities of the Russian army. Not to mention the Russians, the army of any country in this era cannot guarantee that all officers have a big picture.

Franz waved his hand: "Stop, this is the end of the problem." If the Prussian army had lured the enemy deeper, it would have been the tsarist government that would have had a headache now.

Of course, Alexander II may still be celebrating the victory. But I think someone will remind him that after all, they have already lost once, and they should have learned their lessons.

Now let's discuss how to deal with the next changes in Europe. ”

"Long-term planning", unfortunately this thing has long ceased to exist. The foreign policy of the Vienna Government has always been adjusted according to the needs of reality, and any foreign policy has practical results.

This time was no exception, because the Russo-Prussian war was full of uncertainties and required the preparation of several more plans.

It is still necessary to wait for the dust to settle and then choose the one that best serves Austria's national interests.

……

After the "Smolinsk victory", the Russian army did not stop, but took advantage of the victory to pursue and capture Minsk, and the front of the army was directed at Warsaw, the capital of Poland, and the Russo-Prussian War seemed to become clear.

In the General Command of the Russian Army, Marshal Ivanov was staring at the map in a daze, and there was no joy of victory on his face.

A middle-aged officer walked down the aisle with a document and reported: "Marshal, the Seventh Army has sent a telegram urging logistics supplies. ”

Ivanov turned around, paused and asked: "Where did the Seventh Army go?" ”

"The Seventh Army marched along the Bug River, which has now passed Sarnaki and is less than 200 versts from Warsaw." The middle-aged man replied

After finding Sarnaki on the map and looking at it carefully for a while, Ivanov sneered: "There is already a flat river ahead, and it is almost to Warsaw, and the enemy has not intercepted it yet?" ”

Without waiting for the middle-aged man to reply, Marshal Ivanov said again: "Moltke's appetite is really big enough, and if an army still doesn't satisfy his appetite, isn't he afraid of choking to death?" ”

It is the enemy who knows himself best, and Moltke became famous in the last Russo-Prussian War, and naturally became the focus of attention of the Russian army.

The information collected in Ivanov's hands has been detailed to where Moltke went to kindergarten. This is an exaggeration, kindergartens are not popular these days.

However, Moltke's life, hobbies, and military style are all recorded. Similar information was not only being collected by the tsarist government, but also by many countries in Europe.

The more you know, the more you know, and naturally some people have studied targeted tactics. The tactics adopted by the Russian army now actually have the intention of restraining Moltke.

This set of conservative tactics has proven to be really effective. Relying on the superiority of troops, even a military strategist like Moltke could not do anything, and he was forced to have his current tactics.

After pondering for a moment, Marshal Ivanov: "Order the Seventh Army to stop its advance, find favorable terrain nearby to build fortifications, and wait for logistical supplies to arrive."

Order the Sixth Army to march to the Lithuanian region, order the North-Western Front to launch a full-scale counteroffensive, and order the South-Western Front to feint in the Volyn area......"

After a series of orders, they did not march into Warsaw. Encountering a steady opponent was a problem, and even though the Prussian army had already opened the door, Ivanov decided to take the enemy on the right flank first.