Chapter 64 Crises are always accompanied by opportunities
After receiving the news of the French government's intention to launch the "Colonial Farm Project", the Vienna government became nervous.
To this day, agriculture remains the most important pillar industry in Austria and accounts for the largest number of workers.
The capacity of the international grain market is limited, and if Austria had not convened an international agricultural summit and led the establishment of an international agricultural export alliance, and the major grain producing countries would have worked together to control the export volume, jointly set the grain sales price, and avoid vicious competition, we would not have the good life we have now.
However, all this is based on the premise that grain supply and demand are basically balanced, and any country that increases grain production capacity will cause market shocks.
Franz: "How many colonies are suitable for the French to develop agriculture?" ”
Colonial Chancellor Stephen replied: "According to the information collected by the Colonial Office, it is estimated that there are more than one million square kilometers of cultivated land in French Africa alone, and more than half a million square kilometers of fertile soil suitable for agricultural production.
It is mainly distributed in 210,000 square kilometers in French Algeria, 120,000 square kilometers in French Morocco, 40,000 square kilometers in French Tunisia, and 60,000 square kilometers in French Egypt......"
The natural environment and territory of this era are different from those of later generations, and it is inevitable that there will be differences in the area of cultivated land.
For example, Tunisia was divided between Britain and France, Morocco was also full of British, French and Spanish forces, and French Egypt included half of Sudan.
Hearing this answer, everyone's expressions became even more solemn.
So many places, not to mention all of them, even if they were developed by a third, or even a fifth, the French would be able to achieve self-sufficiency.
The desert empire was not all deserts, and there was so much fertile land in French Africa alone that it was estimated that the number could be doubled if the other colonies of the French were included.
In Franz's interests, Indochina was well suited for the development of agriculture, although it was a little far away, but the French had tax barriers.
The development of such a piece of land, at will, could be devastating to the international food market.
The French do not need to go out and grab the international market, and domestic self-sufficiency alone is enough to collapse the international grain market.
Knowing is knowing, the Vienna government is now powerless. The French exploited their own land, and Austria had no reason to interfere at all.
After pondering for a moment, Franz said slowly: "This is a matter of time, no major country is willing to be controlled by others in terms of strategic security, and the French are no exception.
Even if it is not profitable to invest in farms in the colonies, as long as it can ensure food self-sufficiency and reduce foreign exchange losses, it will be financially profitable.
Now it is only the French themselves who can stop the French. Investment in agriculture does not pay off in a short period of time.
Reclamation of wasteland, construction of water conservancy projects, and roads all require a lot of upfront investment, and no one does the business at a loss.
The capitalists were certainly not willing to invest, and the French government had to pay for the development of the colonial farms.
As things stand, the French government is far less wealthy and can easily come up with money for agricultural development, and in the short term they still have limited money to invest in agriculture.
At least for three to five years, we don't have to worry about the collapse of the international grain market. With such a long time, a lot can already be done. ”
Cultivating land is not just talking, maybe opening up a piece of farmland is very simple, burning the trees and weeds with a fire, and then leveling the land.
Except for a very small number of areas with good natural conditions and abundant water sources, most areas need to be built for water conservancy.
The food is grown, and it is not the end. If it can't be shipped out for sale, even if it's a mountain of grain, it won't have any value.
All things considered, three to five years is already very optimistic. It is estimated that the coastal areas will be able to produce some results, and the inland areas may not be able to develop them in ten or eight years.
There was a buffer time, and it didn't make everyone optimistic. It is only a matter of time before disaster will break out.
Foreign Secretary Wesenberg proposed: "It's not our family's business anymore, maybe it would be better to get the news out."
If we can pull all the member countries of the Agricultural Export Union together to put pressure on the French, there may be unexpected gains. ”
There is no doubt that Russia and Austria are the main ones responsible for the pressure, and the other members of the alliance will be able to wave their flags.
Forcing the French to back down was of course a great rejoicing. However, it is unlikely, if it is so easy to compromise, France will not be able to mix on the European continent.
Prime Minister Karl shook his head: "There's no need, this kind of thing can't be kept secret." As soon as the French colonial farm plan was opened, everyone knew about it.
If international food prices collapse immediately, we are indeed the biggest victims, but isn't there a buffer of a few years?
Although the local grain production capacity is still growing, the increase rate is only less than 1.5 percent, while the growth rate of grain consumption in the domestic market is as high as 4.7 percent.
If it weren't for the Near East Development Plan, our food production capacity would continue to grow in the future, and perhaps within a decade, our food production capacity would only be enough to meet local needs.
At present, most of the finished grain we export is imported from the Russians, and if there is another overcapacity of grain, it will be a big deal to lower the purchase price of raw grain and pass on the losses.
A strong Russian empire is not in our interests, using the French precisely to interrupt the development of the Russians.
If possible, it would be better to put the British in it as well.
Britain and France are implementing food self-sufficiency plans at the same time, and the international grain import market can directly shrink by half, which is just a good time for everyone to feel the power of the agricultural crisis. ”
The large growth rate of grain consumption is due to many reasons, the most direct reason is population growth, which has increased food consumption.
Secondly, people's living standards are improving day by day, and everyone's consumption level is also improving, the most typical is the rapid increase in meat product consumption.
As a result, the annual growth rate of grain used as feed is also growing rapidly, with an annual growth rate of more than 5%.
Finally, the demand for industrial grain has increased, including medicine, chemical industry, alcohol, starch and other industries, and the demand for grain has continued to grow.
The rapid growth of demand does not mean that the production capacity can also grow rapidly. In fact, since the outbreak of the agricultural crisis, the Vienna government has been encouraging the cultivation of cash crops.
It's not that Franz doesn't know the importance of grain, but Austria really doesn't lack grain, and the consequence of continuing to increase production capacity is that the grain hurts the peasants, or even rots directly in the ground.
Otherwise, the Agricultural Export Union would have been established, and it is estimated that they would still be in an agricultural crisis, and everyone would pour milk into the river together.
Of course, co-opting the Russians is also one of the reasons.
More than 90 percent of the grain exported by the Russian Empire each year goes to Austria, and nearly half of the grain is processed and finally returned to Russia for sale.
The Russian-Austrian alliance has been able to continue, and people-to-people relations have always remained friendly, and in essence, they are also based on interests.
Generally speaking, alliances of interest tend to be the most stable, but the relationship between Russia and Austria is an exception.
If one day the Russians complete the industrial revolution and the local processing industry develops, the chain of food interests will be broken.
But this is a matter of the future, and there is no need to worry about it in the short term.
In the context of imperfect infrastructure, the aristocratic lords of the tsarist government still liked to be mine owners and big landlords who guaranteed income during droughts and floods, and were not keen on industries with huge risks.
Franz knew that these were only superficial reasons. Ten years later, the Near East development plan is almost complete, and Austria is truly on the horizon.
At that time, the process of German reunification should also be put on the agenda. The Vienna government will not take the initiative to break the situation and pull hatred.
It is very necessary for Austria not yet to have the ability to single-handedly provoke the European world and to sow discord among European countries.
The French colonial development plan did harm Austria's interests, but compared with the national strategy, the temporary losses were still acceptable.
Taking advantage of the situation, the British were encouraged to join in, and it seemed that Britain and France had achieved food self-sufficiency and national strategic security was no longer restricted, but in fact they stood on the opposite side of the Russians.
The Russians were moved, and the interests of tens of millions of people were involved, and even if the tsarist government wanted to stand with Britain and France, the Russian people would not agree.
The odds of losing with one against three are too high, and with one against two, two against two, or simply one-on-one, the odds of winning are greatly increased.
As a mature monarch, Franz still felt that it was better not to fight, and it was better not to fight.
"The Prime Minister is right, if the French want to develop colonies, we can't stop them at all, and there is no need to stop them.
The Foreign Office made a show to let the outside world know that we were very dissatisfied, and it was better to make the British feel that the French had hit us in the soft underbelly.
Induce the London government to join in and artificially create one of the worst agricultural crises to create opportunities for our next steps. ”
An agricultural crisis is no fun feat, and if it does, the grain exporters will certainly suffer huge losses, and the two British and French players will definitely not have an easy time.
Fortunately for the French, the Paris government will not allow domestic food prices to collapse due to the protection of tax barriers.
The British are in trouble, free trade has always been a double-edged sword, while enjoying the benefits of free trade, we must also bear the negative effects it brings.
In the style of the British, once the agricultural crisis breaks out, all the initial investment will be wasted, and the old men in Congress will order the government to stop the loss.
The cost of money is small, and the key is political turmoil, which can delay the British government's decision-making, which is very beneficial to Austria's next plans.