London

Since the beginning of the arms race in Europe, the British government has shown close attention and is well aware of the movements of various countries.

Foreign Minister Palmerston gushed and said: "Judging from the information we have gathered, the Austrian government's military expansion should be aimed at the Ottoman Empire, and our plan to divert the troubles to the east has succeeded.

But now a little has changed, and it is possible that the Austrian government has made a compromise with the Russians. If you want to provoke a conflict between Russia and Austria, you can't do it in a short time.

However, there are many conflicts of interest, and even the best relationships will be shattered. From the moment Austria set foot in the Balkans, it was doomed to the collapse of the Russian-Austrian alliance......"

Prime Minister John Russell frowned and questioned: "Mr. Palmerston, I believe in the judgment that sooner or later the Russian-Austrian alliance will collapse. But this time may be three years from now, five years from now, but it is definitely not now.

Until the fall of their common enemy, the Ottoman Empire, Russia and Austria can still cooperate closely.

The seeds of hatred were planted hundreds of years ago, and neither the Russians, nor the Austrians, did not want the Ottoman Empire to fall.

In addition to hatred, there are even more compelling interests. The Russians took a fancy to the Black Sea straits, and the Austrians to the Danube basin.

The Ottoman Empire was too weak and was targeted by two robbers. But we can't let them go down now.

It didn't matter if the Austrians were plotting against the Danube, but if the Black Sea straits fell into the hands of the Russians, we would lose a lot.

I don't think that a single Constantinople would satisfy the appetite of the tsarist government. The desire they have held back for so many years, and now they want to release it, it is absolutely earth-shattering.

Once the Ottoman Empire fell, the Austrians annexed at most half of the Balkans, while the Russians were to occupy the lands along the Black Sea straits.

At that time, not only will our interests in the Ottoman Empire be in jeopardy, but even in the Mediterranean, and even South Africa and India will be threatened by the Russians. ”

This is the crux of the matter, the British need the Ottomans to hold the Russians at bay. No one wants to be neighbors with the Russians, and John Bull is no exception.

Let the Russians encroach on the Ottoman Empire and grasp this central position across Asia, Europe and Africa, and the situation will be completely out of control.

Palmerston explained with a gloomy face: "Your Excellency, the situation is not so bad. No European country wants to see the Russians get bigger, and that's the opportunity.

Whether Austria and the Russians have reached an agreement, and where the bottom line of the two sides is, is unknown.

One thing is certain, though, that the Austrians also did not want the Russians to become bigger. As old neighbors, the threat of the Russians estimates their feelings more accurately.

Therefore, in this imminent war, they will most likely just take advantage of it, and then sit on the hill and watch the tiger fight, and it will not be good for them to kill the Ottoman Empire with a stick.

The strength of the Ottoman Empire is not weak, as long as they can distinguish the priority of the enemy and focus on defending against the Russian attack, they should be able to hold out for a long time with our support.

During this period, we can unite with France, Prussia, Spain and other European countries to intervene in this war. ”

This explanation is not satisfactory, and judging by the current situation, the foreign policy previously pursued by the London government has failed.

There is nothing wrong with leading Austria to the Balkans, but the problem is that the unreasonable hairy bear is ready to break the game violently?

Looking at the time of the Russians' preparations for the war, it is clear to everyone that this war is definitely not a petty fight. Coupled with an Austria that wants to pick up the bargain, if there is no external intervention, the chances of the Ottoman Empire being able to resist this time are infinitely small.

The British have long known that the Russo-Turkish war is about to break out, and not only they know it, but all European countries are mentally prepared for this.

Friendly matches between the Russians and the Ottomans have been played many times, and everyone has figured out the rules, and basically a generation has grown up, and the two sides have to play a game.

This kind of friendly match is not always a decisive battle. In many cases, it is a local war, and it can be fought under any pretext, and the war will be stopped when the war is almost fought.

This can be seen in the preparation time, in general, the more well prepared, the more intense the war will be.

From the second half of 1849, the Russians were already preparing, and now there is no sign of a launch, and the scale of this war can already be imagined.

Against this background, the introduction of Austria into the Balkans naturally exacerbated this confusion. If the Russian-Austrian confrontation is fine, if Russia and Austria join forces, God will not be able to save the Ottoman Empire.

Palmerston naturally had a headache, and if he had known that this situation would occur, he would have bothered to care about the Kingdom of Sardinia, leaving Austria in the quagmire of Italy.

Then the situation is much better now, and Austria, which has no energy for external expansion, is definitely in the vanguard of opposition to the expansion of the Russians.

This was an inevitable consequence, and Franz would oppose the continued expansion of the Russians' power if the benefits were not obtained.

It's not because of red eyes, but because of national strategic needs. Everyone understands that the strength of the Russians naturally means that Austria is in relative decline.

John Russell thought for a moment and said: "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs can start acting now, in case Russia and Austria join forces to make a move against the Ottoman Empire, they will not last long." ”

At this time, the British were not prepared to go into battle shirtless. As for their pocket-sized version of the army, it won't be long before they are sent out and swallowed up by war.

The point is that the French have not yet returned to the throne of the gold medal beaters, and now Napoleon III has not yet been restored, and the parliament and the president are still fighting.

The French government, which is seriously infighting, has no weight in the international community. The promises made by the French Foreign Ministry are also difficult to keep.

……

Paris

The international upheaval was a disaster for many, but for Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte, it was all an opportunity.

The British needed a stable French government to play a role in the ensuing Russo-Turkish war and suppress Russian ambitions.

At this time, is there a better choice than to support him?

You can't support the parliamentarians, can you? They are not as efficient as a dictator.

The restoration plan, which had already been born among the Napoleonic faction, was only one suitable opportunity to be launched.

As for the question of Austria's current military expansion, Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte, like the British, believed that Austria was heading for the Balkans.

In order to induce strategic miscalculations in various countries, the Austrian government is not just talking about it.

Sending spies to the Balkans and being caught by the Ottomans was just a small trick. The garrison was at the junction of Austria and the Ottoman Empire, and it was only a routine operation.

Public opinion in Austria also turned over the old accounts of the Ottoman Empire. The Balkan strategy formulated by the military was discussed at intervals.

If it was not known that Austria was preparing to take revenge on the Ottomans, it must not have been Austrians.

There are also various strategic materials, which are also constantly being transported to Transylvania for storage, and it seems that there is only one excuse left, Austria is about to send troops to the Danube Valley.

Deceive others first deceive yourself, Franz still understands this truth, his own people believe it, are you still afraid that the enemy will not believe it?

With the exception of the Austrian cabinet, only a few high-ranking military generals knew the true purpose of the government, and the vast majority of Austrians believed that the government was going to war with the Ottoman Empire.

Many official media have analyzed that the Russian-Turkish war is about to break out, and Austria will just follow suit, and it will not have to pay too much to occupy the Danube River valley at all.

After this series of actions, Britain and France naturally thought that Austria was going to attack the Balkans.

And the westward expansion plan was completely covered up. The only action is probably that the speed of domestic railway construction has suddenly accelerated.

Even the railways built under the auspices of Bavaria have many more enthusiastic people in the society to provide them with convenience.

Many people are still urging the Royal Bavarian Railway to speed up and not delay them in making money.

Austria's strategic deception plan deceived not only the British and French, but also the Prussians. When it was determined that Austria's goal was the Balkans, Frederick Wilhelm IV had to do nothing but look at him with envy and hatred.

There is no way, Russia and Austria will attack the Ottoman Empire, no matter how envious they are, it is impossible for them to run over and get a piece of the pie.

Geopolitics determined the interests of the Ottoman Empire, which had nothing to do with the Kingdom of Prussia. In that case, let the Austrians go if they want to expand their army. Anyway, without its own interests, there is naturally no need for the Kingdom of Prussia to follow up.

Not only were the great powers fooled, but even the Swiss, who had been worried for a long time, breathed a sigh of relief, and was sure that the Austrians were not going for them, and that the Ottomans were not their business.

Under the propaganda of the media, the news that Russia and Austria are preparing to search for the bad luck of the Ottoman Empire is already well known.

It's none of your business, hang high. The European people have turned into melon-eating people, waiting for the show to begin.

。 m.