Chapter 31, Jiawu

In the blink of an eye, 1894 came to an end. The Vienna government, which had been in deficit for a long time, finally got rid of the fiscal deficit in this year.

Embarrassingly, the main reason for the Vienna government's fiscal deficit was not an increase in taxes for economic development, but an over-issuance of money.

With the joint endorsement of the European Continental Union, the Vienna government has issued 1.2 billion Aegis, which is slowly flowing into the market at the moment.

Although the money had to be shared with everyone, it was the Vienna government that took the lion's share. Preliminary estimates show that, after deducting printing costs and the distribution of profits, seigniorage revenues belonging to the Vienna government are still as high as 780 million.

More than normal in a year. If you can't turn a profit, then you can't really say it.

The endorsement of the alliance only stabilized the value of the Aegis currency, but the bad impact of the over-issuance of currency still exists.

According to the Vienna government, inflation in the country will be as high as 3 points this year. This is also the result of not all the over-issued currency flowing out, otherwise inflation will be even worse.

If we leave it in the era of the credit standard in later generations, the inflation rate of 3 points is not a problem at all, and inflation of 7 or 8 points occurs from time to time.

Inflation is happening all over the world, and the absence of inflation is news. There are even countries with more than double digits that have maintained double-digit inflation rates for many years.

But this is not the case now, and inflation in the gold standard era is minimal. Except for a wave of inflation in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, when gold and silver poured in, after entering the industrial age, there was rarely a big inflation.

The inflation rate of 3 points has already made the Vienna government nervous, for fear of causing a market collapse.

For the national economy, inflation has raised the cost of industrial production, which is obviously not conducive to the export of industrial products.

If it weren't for the Vienna government's large loan of Aegis and the restriction on the amount of spending in the HRE, it would have now been eaten up to the export industry.

The pros and cons are mutually experiential, and taking such a big risk naturally has corresponding benefits.

With this additional revenue, the Vienna government not only made up for the financial shortfall, but also started the Circle Railway project, and by the way, also paid off part of the government debt.

The most important thing is to suppress the revolutionary wave, curb the continued expansion of the economic crisis, stabilize the situation in Europe, and secure the position of the hegemon of the European continent.

Just look at this year's report. The economic crisis at the beginning of the year erupted, with the biggest economic downturn since Franz took the throne.

In the first quarter, the curtain of the economic crisis kicked off, and GDP fell by 8.7% from the same period last year;

In the second quarter, the economic situation deteriorated further, with GDP falling by 12.8% compared to the same period last year;

In the third quarter, the measures taken by the government began to work, and the economy showed a certain improvement, but GDP still fell by 10.8% compared to the same period last year;

In the fourth quarter, European countries agreed to jointly launch a "water release" rescue plan, but GDP still fell by 5.1% compared with the same period last year.

In 1894, the economy of the HRE fell by 8.93%. In the end, it did not break through 10 points, and the number of slipping points controlled the single digits.

Unfortunately, the reality is much more serious. The above figures, which include the already inhabited African territories, also include the calculation, diluting the decline rate.

If it weren't for the aristocratic lords of Africa who were working hard to build, maintain high economic growth, and pull up economic data, the economic data of 1894 HRE would have been absolutely touching.

In Europe alone, GDP growth is in the double digits, but unfortunately negative. The specific figure is -13.7%, which is simply appalling.

There is no way, this is the aftermath of the war. If the government does not respond in a timely manner, this number could even be doubled.

The Shinra, who has a big family and a big business, is now so miserable, and other countries are naturally not much better.

Needless to say, the after-effects of the war continue in the defeated France. Compared with the pre-war period, it was cut in half and cut in half, and then there was a 20% discount.

Don't say that it is to repay the debt, and it is good to be able to wipe out the daily expenses of the government. So much so that since Carlos came to power, he has been fighting corruption until now.

According to the estimates of the Vienna government, it was Armenia that suffered the least in the economic crisis of 1894, maintaining positive economic growth, although the economic growth rate of the agricultural country was comparable to that of a snail.

Even Montenegro, which is an agrarian country, has not been spared. Although the economic crisis did not follow, its own economy was too heavily affected by the HRE.

The economic recession of the HRE has also greatly affected the import and export trade of Montenegro, because the proportion of exports is not large, and the economy has only declined slightly, and the preliminary estimate will not exceed 1 percentage point.

The second is the Nordic Federation and the Netherlands, which have made a fortune from the war, and their own family background is not weak, so the impact of the economic crisis is far less serious than that of other countries.

However, the economies of the two countries are too closely linked to Europe, and a serious economic crisis breaks out in Europe, and they can only follow the crisis.

Affected by the economic crisis, even if the GDP decline is not 10 points, eight or nine points are still indispensable. And the data after Shinra whitewashed, it looks similar.

And then there was the Russian Empire. There is no doubt that the Russians were dragged into the water by the HRE.

The economic ties between the two countries were too close, and the economic crisis broke out in the HRE, and the industrial raw materials of the Russians were also unsalable. Stock market crashes, layoffs, and bankruptcies are also indispensable.

If this is all there is, it can only be regarded as a drizzle of economic pains, but unfortunately revolutions broke out in Poland and Bulgaria, and the partisans in Central Asia also joined in the fun.

If the tsarist government had taken the right economic measures in time, perhaps the situation would not have been so serious, but unfortunately they did nothing.

All the factors were added together, and in the end the Russians handed over a slightly better answer than in HRE, and a drop of seven or eight points was indispensable.

Of course, these are only estimates of the Vienna government, and the tsarist government itself does not count them, and it is even more difficult for outsiders to figure them out.

Except for these less damaged ones, the rest are counted as one, and the economic decline and growth are all negative double digits.

Even Britain is no exception. As a financial empire, the banking and financial industry occupies an important proportion of the national economy.

Because the crisis was artificially delayed, the market bubble became further large. Among them, the most inflated is the stock market, so after the economic crisis broke out, HRE and Britain directly became rotten brothers.

A post-war industrial imbalance + stock market bubble, triggering a national economic crisis; A super-large stock market bubble caused a crisis in the financial industry, and finally turned into an economic crisis.

Franz could not determine the extent of the damage, but a dozen points had to be had. Otherwise, I'm sorry for the title of "the greatest economic crisis in the history of mankind".

Compared to the terrible economic crisis, small inflation is naturally nothing. But as the economic situation improves, this inflation becomes a bit of an eyesore.

Don't look at the current situation, it is the European countries that bear the losses together with the HRE, and the impact is not much in the short term, but the HRE is still a supranational to this day.

As overseas trade continues, the loans that are released will continue to flow back to the HRE Empire. If nothing is done, the HRE will be plagued by inflation for the next few years.

Against this backdrop, once the economic crisis is over, the Vienna government has only two options: either lend the money again; Either a tightening monetary policy is adopted.

After experiencing a wave of personal experience, Franz suddenly understood why the Americans were crazy about throwing money into the outside world after the two world wars.

There is a serious surplus of capital, and if you don't throw the money out, there will be inflation in the country.

Similar troubles seem to have plagued the British for many years. It's just that Franz didn't expect that it would be his turn so soon.

In a sense, Franz was able to reunite the HRE Empire and also benefited from the capital surplus of the British.

If it weren't for the fact that the British had money and nowhere to spend, Austria would not have been able to complete industrialization in a short period of time. Including infrastructure construction, British capital has also made great contributions.

Of course, British capital is not at a loss. Except for a few times when they were designed by Franz and accidentally jumped into the pit, the rest of the time they made a lot of money.

The only one who lost money was probably the British government. For the sake of profit, the capitalists invested and lent money overseas, and as a result, they created a competitor for themselves.

History seems to have returned to the original point, and the rapid development of the United States in the original time and space also benefited from the contribution of British capital.

Not only that, but it seems that the rise of Prussia was also greatly contributed by British capital. Without them, where would the impoverished Berlin government get the money to do things?

If you look at it in this respect, the bankers of London are the gravediggers of the British Empire.

Without their help, competitors wouldn't have been as fast. Britain may lose its hegemony as well, but it certainly won't decline so quickly.

"The past does not forget the teacher of the future", there are such tragic examples, Franz can't be cautious if he wants to.

……

A wave has not settled, and another wave has risen.

Just when Franz was thinking about the future development, the Japanese, who had just hit a sporin in the Philippine Islands and were forced to evacuate, were doing something again.

While the neighbors were napping, they brazenly launched a sneak attack and directly disabled the Beiyang Naval Division. Immediately afterwards, the Japanese army launched a landing operation with lightning speed.

Regardless of whether the Far Eastern Empire has woken up from its confusion now, the enemy has already attacked the door. Although the Japanese army was still on the Korean Peninsula, war had already broken out.

And that's not all, the Far East is in turmoil, and the Americas are in turmoil.

The British finally came into play, setting off an independence movement in Cuba.

Spain, which had just ended the Philippine War and had not yet had time to catch its breath, was also forced into a new war.

It's just a little bit of a stretch, and they're together. I don't know if the Japanese government, which has just given up the Philippine Islands, is annoyed at the moment, and it would be nice to hold on a little longer.

Of course, what the Japanese government thinks is no longer important. A new war awaits them, and even if they want to turn around, the international situation will not allow it!

The European Union forced the palace together, and the scene was really scary. The Japanese government will never want to repeat the same scene.

Does the Japanese government regret Franz knows, anyway, the Spanish government definitely wants to cry now. The outbreak of the independence movement in Cuba at this time directly hit them in the soft underbelly.

The Philippine War had just ended, and it was the poorest time for the Spanish government. The Spanish government had not even raised enough money to rebuild the colonial government, and there was a problem in another important financial resource.

The empire on which the sun once never set has fallen. The Philippines and Cuba were not the only Spanish colonies, but they were the richest colonies.

Losing any of these pieces would be a blow to Spain. It is not only an economic blow, but also a political fatal crisis.

The Japanese had just been disgraced by the Japanese in Nanyang, and it was the time when the domestic nationalists were at their most vigorous.

If it weren't for the power of the European Continental Alliance, which successfully took back the Philippine Islands and appeased the domestic people with victory, there would have been no peace long ago.

By this time, the Kingdom of Spain could no longer afford any defeat. Any defeat would crush their crumbling position as a great power and even lead to revolution.