Chapter Ninety-Four, Coping with Things
Most of the high-ranking officials in the Berlin government are from military backgrounds, and they have always been resolute in their work, and since they have decided to pit the Poles, they will naturally not be soft.
Because of the problem of the struggle for the Polish throne, nails were also planted between the Pop Pass. The Poles, who had achieved independence with great difficulty, did not want to be annexed by Prussia.
Coupled with the interference of international forces, the contradictions between Putik and Poland are constantly magnified, and if it were not for the existence of the great enemy of the Russians, the two countries would have parted ways long ago.
Even so, the radicals in the Polish government did not want to see the Prussians dictate and wanted to kick Prussia alone.
The Berlin government is anxious to see these problems. The two radicals are not easy to deal with, and a bad operation will trigger a violent backlash.
The Berlin government has long had the intention of killing people with a knife, but the hidden dangers of operation are quite large, and a bad one is a disaster.
To deal with the Russian Empire, the Kingdom of Prussia needed Polish cannon fodder, and Poland could not be crippled.
If it were not for the rupture of Russian-Austrian relations, Moltke would never have dared to make this proposal. Otherwise, the Russians took the opportunity to join in and forcibly pull Austria into the water, and Pubo would not be an opponent of Russia and Austria.
Now that there is a problem with the Russian-Austrian alliance, and Austria also needs to weaken the Russians with the help of Pop, the Vienna government will teach the Poles a lesson at most, and it is impossible to really cripple them.
How much the Poles had to pay for this, the Berlin government did not care at all. Despite seeing Poland as something in their pockets, there was a reality that they had to face.
For the Kingdom of Prussia, Poland was so big that if you swallowed it in one gulp, you would probably end up choking to death.
In the First Russo-Prussian War, the reason why the Poles suffered heavy losses was the handiwork of Prussia. It's just that it's done more hidden and not known to the outside world.
It is really simple to agitate the second middle school teenager, it is enough to provoke public opinion, and the newspaper is the most advantageous weapon. Overnight, the old story of the partition of Poland by Prussia, Russia and Austria was revealed.
Of course, the Kingdom of Prussia was hidden, the newspapers had become the division of the Kingdom of Poland between Russia and Austria, and the role of Austria had been artificially magnified.
……
St. Petersburg, since the beginning of the dumping in Austria and the collapse of international food prices, Alexander II has not been well.
After so many years of hard work, the land problem of the Russian Empire was finally solved, and before it had time to reap the fruits of victory, it ushered in the first blow.
Austria's retaliation was so harsh that if it did not survive this agricultural crisis, the Russian Empire would soon be in a catastrophe.
Russia is not an industrial country, and agricultural tax revenue is still the main revenue of the government, accounting for more than half of all fiscal revenue.
Food prices collapsed, which meant that the finances of the tsarist government were cooler. The loans obtained from the British were used to build railways and develop industry, not to maintain the daily expenses of the government.
This is still based on the fact that the British fulfilled the contract, and if John Bull did not admit it, then the tsarist government would really go bankrupt. Although, a few years ago, they went bankrupt only once.
Don't look at the two countries that have signed a contract, but the loan is not a one-time payment. The British lent money in batches, and now the tsarist government has only received more than five million pounds.
For individuals, this is a huge amount of money; For the Russian Empire, this money was a matter of several hundred kilometers of railways.
Don't think it's expensive, the terrain is complicated, the climate is harsh, and the rails have to be imported from the UK, if the final cost is not high, there will be a ghost.
John Bull's loan was not easy to get, 50 percent of it had to be used to buy British goods, and the construction of the railway was even more mandatory to buy tracks from the British.
Foreign Minister Chris Basham took out a document and handed it to Alexander II.
"Your Majesty, the Austrians yesterday again issued a Proposal for Reduction of Grain Capacity to the world's major grain exporters, in which they proposed that countries should reduce their grain production capacity by 8 per cent in 1873 in response to the agricultural crisis."
8% of the grain production capacity is not 8% of the export market, but 8% of the total grain production of various countries, which is converted into tens of millions of tons of global grain production.
If this can be done, the agricultural crisis will be more than half over. Austria has published an overcapacity of 21 percent, which is a theoretical figure calculated by a formula.
It only estimates the demand for food, wine, industry, and feed.
In real life, food is inevitably wasted. For example: loss in transit, moldy and spoiled food due to weather, waste in daily life......
If several grain-exporting countries had cut their production capacity by 8 percent at the same time, the amount of grain that could flow into the international market would have largely returned to the level of 1870.
Because the population is growing, in two or three years at most, the excess food that is now available on the market will be consumed, and food prices will be normalized.
On the face of it, there is nothing wrong with the Austrian proposal. All the major grain exporters reduced their production in the same proportion and maintained market price stability, which was equivalent to admitting the Russian Empire as a member, and Austria also ceded a large part of the market.
In fact, this was very fatal for the tsarist government. Reducing production is easier said than done. If the Russian Empire is to increase grain production by 8% next year, it is simply to expand the area under cultivation.
Now that the Russian people are highly motivated to grow grain, and their output is rising steadily, as long as the transportation problem is solved and Austria is replaced as the world's largest grain exporter, there will be no problem at all.
But if you want to reduce production, this is not easy to do, and the government can't ban people from growing food, right? There are tens of millions of peasants in Russia, and no one can stop them from increasing the area under grain cultivation on their own.
Even if it is a copy of the Austrian fallow method, it is useless, Russia has land. As for the Austrian law of land reclamation, the tsarist government did not dare to follow suit, it was going to happen.
Alexander II pondered for a while, then turned his gaze to the crowd.
"What do you think, is the Austrian proposal feasible?"
An obese middle-aged man stood up with emotion and said indignantly, "Your Majesty, this is an Austrian conspiracy. How is it possible to cut food production capacity by 8% in a year?
Even if international food prices are low now, it will be a long process for farmers to adjust their planting habits.
It is impossible for the government to directly dictate what farmers are allowed to plant. Agricultural overcapacity is similar to industrial overcapacity, and after a crisis, the market will make a choice to survive the fittest.
If we force production cuts, it will have no value at all except to cause a major mess.
The Austrians are demonstrating to us, and they want to force us to compromise with them with low food prices. ”
Manilov is not stupid, as Minister of Agriculture, he knows very well how highly motivated the Russian peasants are to grow grain, and it would be thankless to ask them to cut their output at this time.
Russia and Austria are completely different, and the national conditions of the two countries are very different. The Vienna government, after the introduction of the law, was able to curb the increase in the area of land for growing food.
As long as the high-level aristocrats of the government take the lead and change to cash crops on their own land, many people will still respond. The Russian aristocracy was different, it seemed easy to switch to cash crops, the question was who they sold to?
This is the gap between an agricultural country and an industrial country, but Austria has a complete industry, transportation and communication are relatively developed, and information is relatively transparent.
These aristocrats in the upper echelons of society want to understand the market situation very simply, and know what to grow will be marketable.
The Russian Empire was different, local industry was just starting, poor transportation cut off communications, not to mention telephones, and even the telegraph did not reach every city.
Even if someone wants to switch to cash crops, they don't know what to plant? Even if it's grown, I don't know where to ship it and sell it.
In the absence of effective sales channels, everyone can only carry out conservative planting. Regardless of the price of grain, at least the grain is easy to sell, and there are merchants to buy it.
If you are growing cash crops, you have to think about it. If there are corresponding factories in the vicinity, there is no problem, and everyone can rest assured that they can plant boldly.
If there is no factory, then it must be scaled, and if the production capacity is insufficient, it may not even be enough for transportation costs.
Foreign Secretary Chris Basham: "Marquis Manilov, please calm down first. Let's not forget that Austria is the largest exporter of agricultural products, and they have the most to lose if this continues.
After the collapse of raw grain prices, the prices of finished grains are also declining. If it continues, eventually these processing companies will not escape.
In order to protect domestic companies, the Vienna government has reduced taxes for these companies, but the share of Austrians in the international market is still shrinking.
After getting cheap raw materials, the grain processing enterprises in various countries that were suppressed by Austria are now also beginning to flourish.
If the oversupply situation does not change and the price of raw grains continues to be low, grain processing enterprises in European countries can soon develop.
From the perspective of interests, the proposal issued by the Austrians is more to protect the domestic processing and manufacturing industry.
In any case, Austria is still our most important grain exporter, and even the reopening of the British market will not change this fact.
If Austria refuses to accept our agricultural products, that will be the beginning of the disaster, and no one in Europe has yet had such a large-scale agricultural processing industry chain. ”
Alexander II stretched out his hand and patted his forehead, the grain harvest was also a headache. The international grain market is oversupplied, and this year's unsalable grain has become a foregone conclusion.
Once Austria is lost, the largest buyer, then there is really nothing to be done with the mountains of grain piled up in the country. According to preliminary estimates, there will be tens of millions of tons of surplus grain in the Russian Empire this year.
Aside from Britain's unsure contract, they don't have any big orders at the moment. At the same price, no one asked for their food.
Everyone has a stable supplier, how can they change people casually for no reason, or replace them with people they hate.
No way, the Russians have been brutally hacked in Europe in recent years. At present, 70 percent of Europeans do not recognize Russia as a European country, and Russians are naturally not Europeans.
The remaining 30 percent who recognize them as Europeans, including more than 74 million Russians. At this time, the total population of the European continent was less than 300 million, so this ratio is quite impressive.
Fortunately, at least half of this amount of grain cannot be transported, otherwise the competition in the international grain market will be even more cruel.
This was completely contrary to Alexander II's original plan, which originally wanted to use grain as ammunition to leverage European hegemony. The result was smashed into his own hands before he had time to start.
There was no problem with the plan, it just changed a little suddenly. The main grain exporters on the European continent are Austria, Russia, Poland, Prussia, and the rest are not worth mentioning.
Overseas competitors are not yet in the climate. Because the countries of the Americas send more than one million tons of agricultural products to the European continent every year, their market share is not high.
This is determined by interests, and the Confederate States of America are still going further and further on the road of cotton planting, and now their position as the supremacy of cotton is still unbreakable.
The same price for quality, the same quality for price, no region of cotton can compete with them in these years.
The British's plan to grow cotton in Egypt died early, and after the French occupied Egypt, they once wanted to develop the cotton industry, but under the impact of American cotton, the French finally gave up.
The Indian cotton tinkered with by the British was unfortunately completely destroyed by the Americans in terms of cost. Without negotiation in front of interests, Indian cotton cannot become the mainstream.
Austria's West African cotton planting base is not much better. Production has barely increased in recent years, and domestic capitalists are also big fans of American cotton.
There is no way, this is caused by the unique natural conditions. If enterprises do not use the cotton of the Allied countries, the products produced will lack market competitiveness.
The government is not omnipotent, and it is impossible to support all industries, and the result of dispersion is often nothing in the end. Austria had no advantage in the cotton spinning market, and the Vienna government would not invest in it.
If it weren't for this strong opponent, everyone's life would be even more difficult.
At present, the major grain exporters in the Americas are mainly Brazil and Argentina, but these two countries have small populations, limited grain planting area, and their production capacity is not very large.
After a few steps of wandering around, Alexander II had an idea and made a decision.
"Reply to the Austrians, tell them that the Russian Empire is also a responsible power, and we agree to cut grain production capacity. The specific measures should be modeled after Austria, but they need to be changed.
There is no problem with the land fallow method, just move over. The law was changed to start from now on: the newly reclaimed wasteland is not allowed to grow food for five years. ”
Alexander II had already seen the consequences of overcapacity, and since international grain exports were no longer profitable, he did not want to continue to increase them.
In that case, it would be better to give the Vienna government a face. The Russian Empire is not increasing grain production capacity for the time being, but it is better to reduce production capacity, such a challenging thing is not something that the tsarist government can do.