St. Petersburg, after the full-scale agricultural crisis, became the center of the storm vortex.

European public opinion has accused the Russians of deliberately creating an agricultural crisis in an attempt to take the opportunity to overwhelm the European agricultural production system and monopolize the European grain supply.

This is also true, the tsarist government did have this plan, but before it could be implemented, the agricultural crisis broke out.

Agriculture is the most difficult industry to monopolize, there is almost no threshold, and anyone can farm. In those years, land suitable for cultivation was everywhere, and no colonial empire needed to be controlled by people.

The tsarist government had the intention of monopolizing the food supply of Europe, but it did not have the ability to implement it. The cost of agricultural production in Russia is not dominant, and it is almost impossible to win in the competition.

In the face of overwhelming accusations from public opinion, Alexander II decisively chose to ignore them. Anyway, on the continent, the tsarist government was being scolded all the time, and he was used to it.

Public opinion can be ignored, but the reaction of European governments cannot be ignored by Alexander II.

By April 1873, a number of politicians had publicly stated that they would impose tariffs on imported agricultural products in order to protect their own agriculture.

All agricultural import tariffs are added together, and behind the seemingly fairness, there is actually a strong sense of malice.

At present, among the four major agricultural exporters in Europe, the Kingdom of Prussia has the smallest market share and has been the least affected.

The Kingdom of Poland, which is in the penultimate position, is now mired in internal struggle, and the situation cannot be worsened no matter how much it deteriorates.

Despite the fact that in terms of total exports, the Russian Empire took second place, but in this volume they deservedly took the lead.

Austria is the largest exporter, and in addition to local grain processing, it also imports agricultural products from Russia and Poland for processing, most of which are supported by the added value of products.

After the outbreak of the agricultural crisis, the tsarist government was also ready to do its own processing, leaving no chance for the Austrians to make the difference.

It is a pity that the domestic industrial strength is too weak, resulting in high processing costs, and in the face of cruel market competition, it has lost its competitiveness.

Affected by the agricultural crisis, Austrian agro-processing enterprises have reduced their production capacity, and the total amount of Russian agricultural products exported to Austria has also declined, but it still accounts for more than half of the total foreign agricultural exports.

From the perspective of interests, both sides can be regarded as both losses and prosperity. No sooner had Alexander II received a telegram from the Austrian Association of Agro-Processors, asking them to reduce the total volume of grain exports.

Large quantities of cheap raw grain are exported to the international market and directly to European countries, which is also a life-and-death battle for Austrian agro-processing companies.

Market competition is becoming more and more fierce, and these processing companies will certainly not sit still. It's impossible to lose money and make money.

The capitalists are very shrewd, and what seems to be a prosaic telegram is actually an ultimatum.

Capital is profit-seeking, and if there is no profit from the processing of agricultural products, the capitalists will not mind abandoning it immediately.

From 1872 onwards, the shrewd capitalists were undergoing a transformation. Now that we are in the outbreak of the second industrial revolution, there are still many projects that can be invested, and there is no need to hang yourself from a tree.

If the Russians are willing to reduce the total amount of grain exports, everyone's profits will be guaranteed, and business can continue.

Otherwise, things won't be easy. Affected by the collapse of grain prices, almost every grain capitalist has a warehouse full of grain, waiting for the market to pick up.

If there is no hope, everyone can only endure the pain. This is definitely not a good thing for the Russians, because of the Russian-Austrian alliance, Austrian processing companies have always given priority to Russian agricultural products.

On the European continent the situation was quite different, and under the same conditions, almost no capitalist was willing to cooperate with the Russians.

This is the sequelae of the loss of credibility and cannot be remedied in a short period of time. At present, Russia's agricultural exports rely on cheapness.

The continuous decline in international grain prices is actually being dragged down by Russian grain exports. In order to sell the grain, they had to reduce the price.

As soon as the Russians lowered the price of grain exports, the market had to follow suit. The current international food price is the lowest price in decades, and everyone's profits have been wiped out.

Alexander II knew the consequences of doing this, but looking at the mountains of grain, they could only sell it if they lost money.

Moreover, the definition of "losing money" cannot be generalized, and the export of grain is exchanged for foreign exchange, while the domestic circulation is paper rubles.

The paper ruble issued by the tsarist government was not recognized by the outside world. In international trade, gold, silver, British pounds, Aegis, and francs are currently the most used.

The international credibility of the ruble is not as good as the krona of the Nordic Confederation, nor is it as good as the guilder of the Netherlands, and even the Swiss franc and the Prussian mark are more popular than the ruble.

From the perspective of national development, even if it suffers a loss, the tsarist government must obtain as much foreign exchange as possible, otherwise it will not be able to balance the trade deficit and will lead to an outflow of gold and silver.

It's just that it is not a way to keep losing, and in order to smooth out the losses, the tsarist government has already devalued the ruble twice.

This is undoubtedly a heavy blow to the ruble, which has just carried out the reform of the gold standard, and has dealt a serious blow to market confidence.

It is impossible for the currency to depreciate forever, and economists have warned Alexander II that if the game continues like this, the market will be rotten, so it is better to continue to use gold and silver as currency!

Adjusting his emotions, Alexander II: "What do you think of the telegram from the Austrian Association of Agro-processing Enterprises?" ”

Any guild could send him a telegram threatening directly, much to the chagrin of Alexander II. If it weren't for the lack of choice, he really wanted to cut off the deal between the two sides.

Of course, if you think about it, if you really want to do it, forget it. Without this biggest buyer, their lives would be even more difficult.

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Cristanval: "Your Majesty, we must not cut our exports unless all countries work together to reduce food exports and raise food prices.

At present, there are still a large number of unsalable agricultural products in the country, especially in the newly developed Siberian region, where no one cares about local grain at all, and the government's tax revenue is all grain.

The Ministry of Finance is organizing manual transportation, and if it can't be sold, these taxes are all gone.

If there is really no way to solve the problem of unsalable grain, it is better to use the grain to repay foreign debts. Whether they accept it or not, we only pay with food. ”

In Cristanval's view, everyone can tolerate the previous debts. Now that the tsarist government is willing to admit the previous debt, this is already very face-saving, and it still wants to pick and choose?

Foreign Minister Chris Basham shook his head repeatedly: "No, we have reached agreements with other countries with great difficulty, and if we do this, we will immediately find ourselves in a diplomatic dilemma."

According to the prior agreement, the countries have agreed that we will use agricultural products to pay off our debts in batches, and there is no need to go to such extremes. ”

Grain repayment is the greatest achievement of the Russian Foreign Ministry, which repays all debts in 15 years. If they had paid off their debts with all the grain at once, they would have solved the agricultural crisis, but the creditors couldn't stand it!

Grain that can't be sold is worthless. Chris Basham does not want the Foreign Ministry's achievements to be ruined, and that would be a disaster for the Russian Empire.

When it comes to reducing production capacity, everyone tacitly does not propose it. Austria's call for production cuts last year has turned into a joke.

Except for Austria, which itself cut the area under grain cultivation, the three countries of Russia, Pupu and Poland only shouted slogans and issued several laws.

When it came time to implement it, everyone realized that it was not the case at all. It is not possible to stipulate which piece of land can be grown for grain and which piece of land cannot be grown for grain.

If any law is to be implemented, it is not a leap away. Even if the fallow law, which is widely recognized by society, is implemented in detail, the officials below do not know which piece of land has been fallow and which land has not been fallow.

If there is no statistics in advance, how can we talk about implementation? In the face of reality, the tacit choices of officials in various localities will be counted from now on.

If food is planted this year, then next year this land should be fallow. Everyone has a clear statistic, and no one has anything to say.

As a result, this year, the grain planting area of various countries has increased instead of decreasing, and the government is also powerless. It can take years for regulation to work.

The role of market self-regulation may be more effective than that of government decrees. Losing money for several years in a row, the common people may not reduce the area under grain cultivation, but the aristocracy will certainly reduce production.

Agriculture Minister Manilov interrupted: "There is no point in arguing about these things, unless the agricultural crisis is fundamentally resolved, otherwise the crisis will only become more serious."

Even if grain is forcibly thrown away to creditors, it will only cure the symptoms and not the root cause, and the agricultural crisis will not be able to get rid of in a year or two.

According to data released by the Austrian Ministry of Agriculture, if measures are not taken and the market is left to regulate itself, this agricultural winter could last for more than a decade.

Russia is a big agricultural country, and if the agricultural crisis lasts for more than 10 years, it is initially estimated that tens of millions of peasants in the country will go bankrupt as a result, and it may even be 20 million or 30 million.

The industrialization of the empire is developing rapidly, but it is not possible to accommodate such a large number of bankrupt people in a short period of time.

The biggest problem we have now is not the unsalable grain in the country, but how to ensure that the peasants do not go bankrupt on a large scale.

According to the current situation, this year's domestic bankrupt farmers will be several times that of last year, about 5~80,000 families will go bankrupt, the agricultural crisis continues, and this number will increase geometrically every year. ”

It's almost unclear: If you can't eat all the food, let's go to war!

The agricultural crisis had not come at an opportune time, and if it had been a few years earlier, just in time for the Russo-Prussian War, the outcome of the war might have been rewritten.

Grey cattle were worthless, and as long as they had food in their hands, the tsarist government could carry on the war. A tsar who can feed the soldiers, that is already a good tsar, and other problems can be overcome.

Don't look at the current Russian Empire, it seems that it is a small circle, if a war breaks out, the war potential of the Russians will definitely be far greater than a few years ago.

This is the advantage of having more grain, and no matter how unsalable the grain is, as long as the peasants do not go bankrupt on a large scale, the problem will be under control. To put it bluntly, everyone is full, and no one is back.

The agrarian crisis was so severe that the Russian peasants did not blame the tsarist government, and Alexander II's prestige was not lost in the slightest, that is, the benefits of having enough to eat.

After pondering for a moment, Alexander II decided to give in to reality. "Dead friends don't die poor", it's better for others to be unlucky than to be unlucky.

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has communicated deeply with the Vienna government, and this time we will pull them into the water at all costs."

After a defeat, Alexander II's arrogance had diminished a lot, and he had restrained a lot in his actions.

This is a crisis, but it is also an opportunity. If done well, the Russian Empire could also use the power of Austria to take out an enemy.

……