The report on the casualties of Prussia and Russia released by Austria quickly detonated public opinion, and the figure of "eight million" was so staggering that everyone's attention was immediately attracted.

Countless people are amazed that it was another "thirty-year war", but unlike the last time, the Russo-Prussian War lasted less than two years.

Is there a winner?

Perhaps the uninformed ordinary will say that the Russians won, and anyone who really knows the Russo-Prussian War knows that it was a lose-lose war.

Both Prussia and Prussia were losers, and the victors were the three fishermen of Britain, France and Austria, and the position of the three major powers after the war became even more unbreakable.

As the nominal victor, the Russian Empire, which seems to be called the "fourth largest country in Europe" by the media, has actually earned a name.

From the political structure of the three major countries to the four major countries, it is enough to talk about it, and whoever takes it seriously will be stupid.

Now the Russian Empire has only the potential to become the fourth foot, not the strength. If the future development goes well and the national power catches up, then there is a chance to reproduce the pattern of the four major European empires.

Before the start of the First Russo-Prussian War, the Russian Empire was one of the four great empires of Europe, and was the top seed in the struggle for world supremacy with the British.

Tossing around, after two Russo-Prussian wars, losing millions of troops, paying tens of billions of rubles in military spending, exhausting the accumulation of successive tsars, and carrying huge debts.

The final gain was a drop from the European hegemon to the fourth place in Europe, and a drop of territorial expansion that the Russian Empire did not need.

"Reflection" is perhaps the greatest virtue of the European people. Looking at the list of losses of Prussia and Russia in the newspaper, everyone subconsciously came to the conclusion: the war is really fucking terrible!

It's not just ordinary people who are scared, politicians are also scared by the data. For a time, the hawkish forces in various countries were greatly reduced, and the anti-war ideology began to spread to the whole world.

At the Palace of Versailles, the cold casualty figures of the Russo-Prussian War dealt a blow to the ambitious Napoleon IV.

Napoleon IV is very confident in the combat effectiveness of the French Army, and the French people are equally confident, everyone believes that the French Army is the first in the world, and the hegemony of the European continent will be French sooner or later.

As for the Austrian Empire, which stood in front of France's road to hegemony, if it were not for the fact that the international situation did not allow it, they would have fought it long ago.

Well, that's just talk. War is not child's play, and France has been busy digesting the Italian region all these years.

Now that Italy was stabilizing, the Parisian government had the energy to consider expansion, but they were not ready for war with Austria.

Although European hegemony is important, the prerequisite is that its own strength is strong enough to be able to maintain the fruits of victory. Since the annexation of Italy, France has embarked on a long farming career.

Originally, it was planned to wait for the defeat of Prussia and Russia, and then expand into Central Europe and take the coal mines that France needed most.

Napoleon IV believed that Austria would not have the strength to stop them from taking this step after the defeat of both Prussia and Russia, otherwise France would not have had the opportunity to annex Italy.

According to the plan, with the Rhine as the boundary, France would eat Belgium, Luxembourg, the Rhineland and other regions, and pacify Austria with the remaining territories of the German Federal Empire.

It's not that I'm afraid of Austria, it's tactical. In military parlance, this is the cutting of the enemy's wings.

Without Belgium and the Federal Empire of Germany, Austria would have lost two allies when the Franco-Austrian War broke out in the future, increasing France's chances of victory.

After digesting these regions, France's shortcomings were filled, and then defeating Austria to seize hegemony on the European continent was a perfect strategy.

Militarily, Napoleon IV had a psychological advantage, his ancestor Napoleon was awesome, he beat the European continent one by one, and almost won, and there is no reason why it will not be his turn here.

The situation is much better now than it was then, Italy has been occupied, Spain is an ally, and Prussia and Russia have been greatly damaged by the war.

There are few independent countries left, except for Austria, there is no one who can fight, it is basically negligible, and there is no reason not to win alone.

However, the plan did not change quickly, and seeing the casualty figures of the Russo-Prussian War, Napoleon IV's dream of hegemony was shaken for the first time.

There is no way, as an old rival, the French government still knows Austria very well, and the huge number of reserve troops cannot hide from their eyes.

Originally, Napoleon IV did not take the reserves seriously, and no matter how many people there were, they were all stabbed in front of the French army.

The Russo-Prussian War changed his view, and the Paris government also sent a military observation mission, and the harsh reality told them that the reservists were also capable of fighting.

As long as qualified officers are appointed, the reserve force will soon be able to be reorganized, and its combat effectiveness will be inferior to that of the regular army, and the qualitative defects can be completely compensated for by quantity.

Considering the number of standing armies in France, Napoleon IV felt that it might not be enough. If they really fight with Austria, their baby pimple army is likely to be killed by the number of enemies.

If the army is expanded, the superiority of the French army in combat effectiveness will no longer exist.

If the war cannot be resolved quickly, the-stirring sticks across the Channel will intervene, and even if the war is won in the end, France will not have the strength to dominate Europe.

There is nothing wrong with it, France and Austria both put the British on the side of the enemy when making strategic plans, because the risks of being allies with them are just as great.

The original plan was bankrupt, and Napoleon IV was hesitating whether to continue the implementation of the "strategic plan to cut off the enemy's wings" or to change it.

As for promising the British support for the creation of the North German Empire, that's a joke. How can you paralyze them without releasing kindness?

You must know that most of the armies of the Federal German Empire were used to defend against France, and the rest of the country was almost unfortified, as if no one would invade them except France.

As it turned out, this judgment seemed to be correct. Prussia and Austria will not invade the German Confederation, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland cannot defeat them, and there is indeed only one France that threatens.

Before Napoleon IV could make a decision, the French people made a choice for him. Anti-war sentiment broke out again, and it spread all over the world, starting from Paris.

This is all young and inexperienced, otherwise Napoleon IV would have thought of it a long time ago. Various currents of thought, new ideas, and new doctrines in Europe...... That didn't start in Paris, and the "Holy Land" wasn't for nothing.

Napoleon IV should have rejoiced that he did not act in advance, otherwise the French people would have taught him how to behave in the wake of the anti-war wave.

In a sense, Austria also missed a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and European hegemony has never been so close to them.

If the French had known about their plans, Franz would have found a way to delay the release of the Prussian and Russian casualty data until the French took military action.

Everyone knows that the combat effectiveness of the army is closely related to people's thoughts, and the combat effectiveness of the French army in the anti-war wave is undoubtedly the lowest.

When the French invaded Germany, it was only the French army that was affected by the anti-war, and the troops of the German Confederation were defending their homeland, and the soldiers did not shout against the war.

The Austrian army could also defend the territorial integrity of the German region unaffected, which was a national interest. No matter how much you oppose the war, it is impossible for the enemy not to fight back.

Those who have studied the history of France know that the time when a wave of ideas breaks out is often a period of rapid transmission of revolutionary ideas.

Against the backdrop of the nation's opposition to the war, if the French army on the front line suffered another major defeat, perhaps they would have to make another revolution.

The success or failure of the revolution is not important, the most important thing is that revolutionary ideas will be contagious, as long as a revolution breaks out from within, the mighty and coaxing French Empire will be finished.

The enthusiasm for independence of the Italians was also not low, and the outbreak of the revolution in France and the Franco-Austrian war made it difficult for the Italian independence organization not to break out.

So many people are pulling their backs, not to mention Napoleon IV, even if Napoleon himself went into battle, he would not be able to return to the sky.

After winning the Franco-Austrian war, it was difficult for the German regions not to be reunified. At that point, no one can stop it except God.

With the unification of the German region, the hegemony of the European continent is a certainty. Even if France and Russia can recover from it, it will be ten or twenty years later.

That's a long time, enough time is enough for a lot of things to happen, for example: to make Italy independent, to bring Spain over, or to create a coalition to tie Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the Nordic Confederation to the ship.

There were no ifs in reality, and Napoleon IV, who was sulking, did not know that the anti-war wave that depressed him saved his dynasty.

……

Foreign Secretary Dumbledore reported: "Your Majesty, the Government of Vienna has sent us a diplomatic note wishing to join us in leading the development of a European Army Armament Convention to avoid another continental war. ”

I have to say that now is a good time to limit the armament of the army, the Russo-Prussian War has just ended, and everyone is still immersed in the "eight million" loss figure and cannot extricate themselves.

The anti-war wave is still spreading, and the fear of war is at its peak, both among the public and politicians.

Hearing this, Napoleon IV's depressed mood was slightly relieved, and he pretended to be contemptuous: "The Austrians are afraid, it seems that they are really not very bold!" ”

Everyone is an old fritter, and it is natural to see that Napoleon IV is insincere. Everyone is a normal person, who can not be afraid of the cruelty of the Russo-Prussian War.

The most typical is the members of the military observer group dispatched, many members of the main war faction, after personally feeling the cruelty of the war, one by one became the vanguard of the anti-war.

It's not that they're afraid of war, it's just that they've matured, they've become rational, and they know how to weigh the pros and cons.

Relieving his depressed feelings, Napoleon IV continued to ask: "What else, Austria is not short of money now, they can't limit armaments just for the sake of world peace, right?" ”

When the words "there is no shortage of money" are mentioned, Napoleon IV still has a hint of unnaturalness. There is no way he is jealous, and now the most powerful financial resources in the world are Britain and Austria.

Although France is one of the three major countries, it has fallen behind financially. Don't look at the fiscal revenue, France does not have to be less in Britain and Austria, that is because everyone's calculation method is different.

In Austria, for example, the central government finances and the state government finances are separated, and there are only a few taxes included in the fiscal revenue, and most of the fiscal revenue stays in the hands of the state government.

The same is true in Britain, where the London government's tax revenues are similarly separated. Otherwise, with only seventy or eighty million pounds of income a year, the navy would take half of it, and the rest would probably not even be enough for the salaries of public officials.

Among other things, the Indian colonies alone cost tens of millions of pounds a year to maintain, and the British Empire's colonial expenses were astronomical.

On the surface, France has the highest fiscal revenue, almost equal to the British and Austrian combined, but in fact they are the poorest.

The high amount of fiscal revenue is the result of being uniformly included in the central financial settlement. All expenses need to be allocated by the central government, and it seems that the government has a lot of money, but in fact it is just a hand.

Foreign Secretary Dumbledore replied: "There is information from the Embassy in Vienna that the Austrian Admiralty has recently submitted to the Government a plan for the expansion of the army, which is now under discussion.

Perhaps stimulated by the Russo-Prussian War, the Austrians gave up the European hegemony, and their proposal to limit the armament of the army at this time may be a precursor to the shift of strategic focus to the sea. ”

Napoleon IV was not surprised by the shift of Austria's strategic center of gravity outward, and in fact the Paris government agreed with the proposal to abandon the European hegemony and shift the strategic focus to the sea.

"Do you think we need to follow up?"

Undoubtedly, the result of the follow-up was to agree to the Austrian proposal to limit the size of the army and invest the money saved in the navy.

Hamdi Halbowey, the Minister of the Admiralty, was the first to reply: "Your Majesty, the European continent is too small, and there are more than a dozen countries in a single corner, and the most powerful countries in the world are gathered here.

It is too difficult to make a difference on the European continent, and with the same investment of resources, we can benefit tenfold and hundredfold overseas.

Facts have proven that the future of the world lies in the ocean, and whoever controls the sea power will control the world. ”

"If Your Excellency's so-called gain is territory, then I have nothing to say. The cost of expanding on the continent was more than enough to gain ten times the size of a colony overseas.

It's just that there is a difference between the land and the land, and can the land of the colonies be compared with the land of continental Europe? War Secretary Patrice McMahon retorted

Axiology, which is the most common view. Almost all Europeans feel that European land is more valuable.

Admiral Hamdi Halbowey shook his head: "Overseas land is no worse than in Europe, it's just not developed. All the resources we need can be obtained from overseas, but this is not possible on the European continent.

Even if it could not be developed, it reduced the value of overseas colonies, but quantitative changes caused qualitative changes. With the same input, the benefits from overseas colonies definitely outweigh those from expansion on the European continent. ”

It is a fact that investment on the European continent does not necessarily pay off, and overseas colonial expansion basically pays off.

In continental Europe, France must be cautious, and if it is not careful, it will be beaten by the masses, and the Paris government does not even dare to take a big step.

It's different overseas, France's strength is swept overseas, and it basically can't meet decent opponents, and its competitors are only a few colonial empires.

Compared with the timidity on the European continent, overseas can start to do it without saying a word. Anyway, there are many colonial conflicts, as long as you don't have too much fun, you can't trigger a big war.

……