Chapter 2: Promoting Aegis
Everyone knows the benefits of monetary hegemony, but few countries are qualified to participate in the competition. As an international trade settlement currency, it must have at least the following basic conditions:
1. The economy of the country issuing the currency must be large enough;
2. The import and export trade volume of the currency issuing country must be large enough;
3. The exchange rate of the currency itself is stable;
4. The ability of the currency issuing state to guarantee the redemption of currency;
5. If the country that issued the currency itself was the world's policeman.
In modern times, it was the British who were the first to meet these basic conditions, so the British pound became the earliest international currency.
However, due to the limited communication and the low degree of economic globalization, the pound is not smooth in the promotion process, and everyone is still more keen to use gold and silver in international settlement.
With the continuous increase in the volume of international trade, the simple settlement of gold and silver has become outdated, and the pound has stepped onto the stage of history and become the earliest international currency.
Unfortunately, at this time, Britain's economic hegemony was no longer stable, and it was challenged by the franc and Aegis in the process of establishing monetary hegemony.
Once an opportunity is lost, it is no more. With the passage of time, Britain gradually lost its advantages in industry and economic size, and the dream of hegemony of the pound came to an end.
Especially after the end of the European War, the Holy Roman Empire was once again unified, and Aegis was established as a strong competitor on the European continent as the most favorable contender for monetary supremacy.
Advantages are advantages, and before the dust settles, no one can guarantee that there will be no accidents again. Franz clearly remembers that there is still a chosen country, and he is working hard at the moment.
There is no way, the natural conditions of the Americans are simply too superior. Virtually all resources are self-sufficient, and even if they are divided into three, they still have the potential to become the top powers.
Both the United States and the Union have far surpassed Britain, France and Spain in terms of development potential. The United States, in particular, has even more development potential than Russia.
The current defect is nothing more than a lack of population, quality and quantity, which has become an important factor restricting the economic development of the two countries.
Although Franz prepared in advance and sent a time bomb while the Americans did not react, it is unknown whether this thing will explode or when.
Franz did not want to pin his hopes on the unknown, and instead of waiting for the challenger to develop, it was better to use the existing advantages to determine the general trend in advance.
Once monetary hegemony is established, it is not so simple to overthrow it. In later generations, the United States did everything to make all countries miserable, but the hegemony of the dollar has not been shaken.
The reason is very simple, it is the siphon effect. Monetary hegemony brings together money from all over the world, and with money, the speed of technological development is faster, and military hegemony is consolidated.
One step at a time, one step at a time. Once the position of the hegemon is established, it will be like the leader of the Internet industry, and it will be crushed by the latecomers.
Once the monetary supremacy of Aegis is established, "the only one who can play the Holy Roman Empire to death is the Holy Roman Empire itself." ”
Economic Minister Reinhardt analyzed: "Your Majesty, if you want Aegis to become an international settlement currency, then our economic model must also change.
In order for Aegis to become an international settlement currency, the biggest problem it faces is export. With the increasing volume of international trade, it is no longer enough to simply issue international loans.
In the early years, in order to reduce capital loss, we adopted a foreign trade balance model. For the past four decades, we have had a trade surplus for most of the time.
It is not that this kind of surplus is bad, in fact, in the past years, we have relied on the surplus of foreign trade to accumulate little by little, and it has developed.
But to crush the pound and make Aegis the mainstream currency in international settlements is anachronistic.
When it comes to monetary output, the British are the best learners. At present, the export of the pound mainly relies on the trade deficit model of the British.
If we want to move back into trade deficit mode, we have to make trade-offs between reducing exports or importing more.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs believes that some unimportant low-tech industries can be given up to other countries, while we focus on developing high-tech industries. ”
The issue of the export of Aegis has been discussed many times by the Vienna government. In order to better promote Aegis, as early as 20 years ago, the Vienna government continued to issue international loans to countries around the world.
If there was no background in exporting Aegis, no matter how much political needs were needed, it would be impossible for an inferior customer like the tsarist government to borrow so much money from the empire.
The speed of lending is fast, and the speed of capital return is equally fast. As the world's largest industrial power, all industrial and commercial products can be found here. Most of the debtors, after getting the money, did not cover the heat, and took it out for consumption again.
Needless to say, in this context, even if the Vienna government only wants to balance trade, the end result will be a trade surplus.
The result of the surplus was an influx of capital, which boosted the empire's economy while hindering the development of international trade.
To put it simply, there was a massive outflow of gold and silver, and trading partners became poor and had no money to buy more goods.
Knowing is knowing, and changing the economic model is not an easy task. A bad operation will bring a lot of losses.
Now Franz somewhat understands why later generations of Americans are playing deindustrialization. Aren't industries with high dependence on labor, medium pollution, and low technology content being the ones to be abandoned?
When they had almost given up, people of insight suddenly discovered that the country had been hollowed out. However, this time it was too late.
Competitors have developed by relying on cheap labor, and if they want to regain industrialization, the only way to speed up artificial intelligence research and rely on robots to compete with cheap labor is to rely on robots.
What the final result will be, Franz does not know, anyway, before he crosses, artificial intelligence has not yet replaced human.
"What industries is the Ministry of Economy ready to give up?"
It was inevitable to give up some industries, and Franz was not an idealist. How is it possible to enjoy the dividends brought by monetary hegemony and not want to bear the sequelae of hegemony?
It's just that the specific industry to give up remains to be studied.
Reinhardt, Secretary of State for the Economy: "The industries that the Ministry of Economy is preparing to abandon are mainly concentrated in low-end manufacturing and non-renewable resource extraction.
Mainly: mining of rare resources, textile industry, printing and dyeing industry, low-end clothing and footwear production......
Considering the needs of domestic economic development and employment, it is obviously unrealistic to directly shut down these industries, and the measures we have taken in the short term are to strictly approve the registration of new mining and low-end industrial enterprises.
At the same time, import tariffs on products in related fields will be reduced, and these backward production capacities will be phased out through time and market competition.
If the plan goes well, in about five years, we will be in the era of trade deficits. ”
Franz was relieved that there were no core industries among the industries that were ready to be abandoned. It seems that the Ministry of Economy is still qualified and knows what the foundation of the country is.
If there is a proposal in the top echelons of the government to abandon core industries, Franz will have to consider whether to turn the tables and change the way in which monetary hegemony is contested.
After all, the leaders of this generation are all carefully selected by him, and they are all so short-sighted, let alone a future successor.
In later generations, Americans engaged in industrial hollowing out because they dared to play so much because artificial intelligence was developing rapidly and could be picked up at some point in the future.
Because of a mistake in judgment, the expected technological breakthrough did not happen, and everyone regretted it.
If you play like this in the 19th century, you can refer to the French in the original time and space, who did not get the hegemony of currency, and turned themselves from an industrial empire into a usury empire.
With the lessons of the past, Franz naturally did not dare to take it lightly.
In the same struggle for monetary supremacy, the Viennese government was faced with two choices. The most lucrative ones are naturally their own families; By the end of the equation, Franz could also push the continental alliance to seize monetary supremacy.
In a sense, the latter has a greater chance of success. This year has gathered the power of the European Continental Alliance, not to mention the British, even the whole world combined is not enough to see.
The only problem is that the return on investment in the largest Holy Roman Empire is not very high, and it may only be slightly more than what you get now.
After pondering for a moment, Franz shook his head: "The risks of changing the economic model are very large, we are different from the British, we can learn from it, and it is not necessary to imitate it."
For the sake of safety, what we can do in the short term is to reduce mineral mining, regardless of the mines that have been developed, and the mines that have not yet been developed should be strictly audited.
The government must have a bottom in mind which minerals must be developed, which minerals can be reduced for development, and which minerals can be temporarily not developed. We must not blindly mess around and affect the economic development of the country.
It would be desirable to introduce a natural resource law that would legally prohibit the export of mineral raw materials. Including coal and oil, these energy sources can also be temporarily included in the resource control list, and exports are strictly approved.
Strict review of low-end manufacturing industry, reduce capital inflow can be done, and the rest is left to the market to choose, and there is no need to specifically reduce tariffs, which is too deliberate and not beautiful.
In the short term, the government's focus can be on pollution remediation, especially in the core areas of the country, where heavy polluters in the upper reaches of lakes or rivers must be relocated or shut down. ”
It is not realistic to control pollution in a comprehensive way, not only does it not have the technology, but the Vienna government does not have that much money.
However, Franz still has the confidence to carry out a certain degree of fine-tuning, relocating or closing some heavily polluting enterprises.
Anyway, in order to promote Aegis, the Holy Roman Empire will gradually enter an era of trade deficits, just in time to take the opportunity to eliminate some heavily polluting industries.
In order to promote Aegis, Franz also fought hard. Even its own oil industry can be included in the resource control list.
Of course, this is also a limitation of the times, the demand for oil in the international market is not high, and the "oil-Aegis system" is a shadowless thing.
Moreover, restricting oil exports is not a benefit. On the surface, the money is less profitable, but in essence, it hits the competition.
As an important oil exporter, once the Holy Roman Empire reduces its crude oil exports, international oil prices will inevitably rise.
Affected by this, the promotion and use of internal combustion engines will inevitably be affected. This is a critical period for the second industrial revolution, and it will be difficult to catch up once you miss it.
Franz doesn't mind sacrificing a little money for the time being. Anyway, the oil is buried in the ground, and it can't escape.