Once the seeds of doubt are planted, they never linger. After a closer look at the actions of the Vienna government in recent years, Dumbledore became more and more confused.

If Austria wanted to target France, why let them annex the Italian region?

When it comes to propaganda to the public, it can be explained by the power of France. As a high-ranking member of the government, Dumbledore would not have thought so.

No matter how strong France is, it cannot compete with the European countries. If the European countries put pressure together, they can only retreat.

Expanding territory on the European continent was never easy, and the Italian region was not a backcountry, and Dumbledore did not believe that Austria had no ambitions.

The French government studied this issue for many years, and finally came to an incredible conclusion that the Vienna government kept the spirit of the contract.

The truth doesn't matter anymore, the meat is eaten anyway. No matter how doubtful it is, the French government will not be able to abandon the Italian region.

It doesn't matter if you can't figure it out, just look at the military strength of Austria. The so-called "threats" are all based on strength.

After sorting out the information on the Austrian army in recent years, Dumbledore breathed a sigh of relief. Although the threat did exist, France still parried.

Take action?

Sorry, but being a qualified bureaucrat is first and foremost about weighing the pros and cons, rather than acting blindly.

The Austrian threat was only a latent one, and there were not enough benefits, and it was simply impossible for France and Austria to fight for no reason.

In the wars of this era, it is obvious that the defending side has the advantage. If nothing else, it is decided by the projection of troops alone.

In contrast, as a member of the Cabinet government, Dumbledore was more worried about the military becoming bigger. It's fair to say that from the very beginning, Jeffrey Friedman was looking for the wrong person.

Franco-Prussian and Franco-Prussian countries are not the same, one country has an army, and the other has an army that owns a state. What is taken for granted by the Berlin government is very different from that of other governments.

Because there may be a threat, it is the mindset of the military to take direct measures, and politicians have always put their interests first.

Knowing that others are sowing discord, without thinking, jumping out to use others as gunners is reckless behavior.

Jeffrey Friedman succeeded in sowing discord between France and Austria, but did not change the outcome of the negotiations. If you want France to contain Austria, you can exchange it for benefits.

In the face of interests, the Paris government is still holding on to an inch. Because of the Austrian threat, the Pupo Federation was propped up, which did not exist.

Everyone is a continental country, and for France, Austria is a potential threat, and it is nothing more than a question of "the size of the threat".

……

At the critical moment of the Franco-Prussian negotiations, the Russian-Austrian negotiations have also come to an end.

Foreign Secretary Wessenberg: "Your Excellency, I do not see the sincerity of your country. Your country has taken out too little collateral, and the value is not equal at all.

If there is only this collateral, I very much doubt that your government will simply abandon these areas, then we will lose a lot. ”

Russian Minister Niklaevich: "No, we are very sincere. Your Excellency, don't forget, we have even staked our gold reserves, and there is no possibility of default. ”

Wesenberg was unmoved, if it weren't for the gold reserves of the Russians and the promotion of monetary hegemony, he would not have talked to the Russians here at all.

The so-called territorial mortgage, the tsarist government was not sincere at all. Perhaps in order to block Austria's access to the Black Sea, none of the territories mortgaged by the Russians had access to the sea.

The Bulgarian regions, west of the Dnieper (central and western Ukraine + Moldova), which the tsarist government took out as a mortgage, lacked the most critical coastal areas.

In the era of sea power, there were no ports, all of them were inland, and the value of these territories was naturally greatly reduced.

From the point of view of the Russians, they have a reason to do so. It was easy to let the Austrians into the Black Sea, but it was even more difficult to expel the Austrians.

As far as the few broken ships of the Black Sea Fleet are concerned, once the Austrian Navy enters the Black Sea, Russia's interests in the Black Sea region will be seriously threatened.

In the face of interests, the tsarist government did not dare to test the Austrian discipline. If the stakes are so great that perhaps the Viennese government will deliberately defeat them for the sake of collateral.

Even with the current territorial mortgage, the tsarist government made a risky decision after weighing the pros and cons repeatedly.

"If your government took out all of its gold reserves as collateral, we would not be worried that you would default, but your country has only taken out half of its gold reserves.

Your country has always been a major gold producer, with dozens or even hundreds of tons of gold being mined every year, and it is not difficult to replenish this part of the reserves.

Your Excellency the Minister should be aware that we are not interested in your territory. Not all land is worth a lot of money, especially after the loss of access to the sea, it has greatly depreciated. ”

Minister Niklaevich frowned, it is not difficult to replenish gold reserves, this is for Britain and Austria. In other countries of the world, it is very difficult to increase the amount of gold reserves.

It is true that Russia is the world's major gold-producing country, but it can't stand the outflow every year! Especially since the war is about to start, and a massive outflow of gold and silver cannot be avoided.

To take out all the gold reserves, that is, to put all the lifeblood of their economy into the hands of the Austrians, and if they don't want the ruble to become waste paper, Russia can only be obediently a little brother.

Minister Nikolaevich: "Your Excellency, this is impossible. Staking half of the reserves is already our bottom line.

The territorial mortgage can be negotiated above, and we can add part of the port. In return, your country guarantees our loans and those of the Nordic Confederation and guarantees that your navy will never enter the Black Sea. ”

In order to raise money, the tsarist government repeatedly lowered its bottom line. Especially after the bad news from London, the bottom line of the tsarist government was lowered again.

To this day, Alexander II has no way out. If you don't start a war in advance, and when the enemy is ready, it's too late.

The word "compromise" has never been in the Russian dictionary. The Russo-Prussian War had essentially become a way for the tsarist government to divert its internal contradictions, and if it stopped, the consequences would be unimaginable.

Knowing that the war broke out now, it might suffer heavy losses, and the tsarist government had to bite the bullet.

Wessenberg: "Yes, but your country has to come up with an equivalent amount of collateral." In the event of a default by your government, we will have to repay the debt on our behalf, and security must be guaranteed.

The Navy will never enter the Black Sea, and I cannot guarantee this. However, we can make an agreement that the Austrian Navy will not enter the Black Sea as long as your government does not breach the contract. ”

"Collateral" has almost become Niklaevich's dream demon, and the thought of this word makes his scalp tingle. The Russian-Austrian negotiations have already consumed a lot of his energy.

On the contrary, it is a small problem whether the Austrian Navy can enter the Black Sea, and no matter how many guarantees there are for this thing, it is nonsense, and as long as the interests are in place, no one can stop it.

Niklaevich hurriedly said: "Your Excellency, this is just a normal business loan guarantee, and we can pay the guarantee. There is no risk, and your country can rest assured. ”

Wessenberg shook his head: "I'm sorry, Your Excellency. War is about to break out, and if your country can win it, then I am sure that there will be no problems.

Once your country loses the war, or it is a draw. When the time comes, your government will not be able to repay its debts, will you really be able to fulfill the contract? ”

It is almost impossible to say that the credibility of the tsarist government is doubted. In his opinion, if the tsarist government lost the war, it would definitely be able to fulfill the treaty normally, but if it won the war, it could not be guaranteed.

The defeated Russian Empire, even if it wants to refuse, the Nordic Federation can send troops to take it by itself, and everyone is very good at it.

In contrast, the collateral in Austria is a bit cumbersome. Parts of Western Ukraine are likely to fall into the hands of the Popo Confederation after the war, and the Vienna government's desire to acquire these areas is another storm.

……

On October 10, 1879, after a war of words, Russia and Austria signed the Russian-Austrian Trade Agreement in Vienna, which stipulated:

The Russian Empire mortgaged the area west of the Dnieper River and the Russian Balkan Peninsula to raise 480 million Aegis funds from Austria, including 180 million Aegis loans and 300 million Aegis bonds. (Note: Osad and Constantinople are not included)

Loan interest: 3.5‰/month

Bond interest: 8.4%/annum

Handling Fee: 3%

……

A week later, representatives of the three countries of the Russian-Austrian Nordic Federation signed a "Debt Guarantee Contract" in St. Petersburg, and the Vienna Government provided a security guarantee for the debts of Russia and the Nordics.