Chapter 26: Reflections
After the outbreak of the Central Asian War, the Persian government found that it had been cheated by the Russians, or rather, by the bureaucrats of the tsarist government.
The so-called aid is indeed given, but it is a little slower in action and a discount in quantity.
A small problem in ordinary times became a big problem in wartime, and due to the lack of support, the Persian army was pressed and beaten by the British at the beginning of the battlefield.
For the sake of its own security, the Persian government decided to bring in third-country forces to balance the power of Britain and Russia and end the war as soon as possible.
It is a pity that the Persian government officials did not have a lot of brains, and they immediately found the Americans, trying to use the power of the Americans to balance Britain and Russia.
It's a pity that the United States in this era is not the United States that will be coaxed by later generations, and there may still be a little bit of a say on the American issue, who knows them in Central Asia?
Seeing that the British and Russian attitudes were forcible and just wanted to share the privileges, the Americans naturally coaxed it at the first time. Of course, no one listens to them without cowardice.
In desperation, the Persian government once again turned its attention to the European continent and asked for help from France and Austria.
Vienna
Metternich handed a document to Franz and said, "Your Majesty, this is a diplomatic note from the Persian government, hoping that we can mediate this war in Central Asia. ”
After going through it, Franz shook his head and said, "Reject the Persian government, we have no need to participate in the affairs of the Persian region for the time being." ”
The Vienna government also wants Britain and Russia to stalemate in Central Asia, and at this time they run over to mediate, isn't it full of food and support?
As for the economic benefits promised by the Persian government, in fact, they were very bad for Austria. At present, Austria's leading products in international trade are finely processed agricultural products, but also a small number of industrial products and machinery and equipment are exported.
The Persians were self-sufficient in grain and could not afford to buy Austrian refined agricultural products. The Persians were still a traditional feudal dynasty, with little demand for industrial products and machinery and equipment, and they had to face competition from the British, so there was not much profit at all.
Before the Suez Canal was dug up, Franz was not ready to participate in the affairs of the Persian region. If he had that skill, he might as well have infiltrated the Arabian Peninsula, at least with the Sinai Peninsula as a stronghold.
"Yes, Your Majesty!" Metternich replied
Apparently, he was also not interested in interfering in Persian affairs. Maybe it's because I'm getting older and I've become conservative, or maybe it's purely from the perspective of interests.
None of this matters, in the context of continuous reforms, Franz also needs conservatives to come out and pull the brakes, otherwise it will be miserable to rush out of the line all at once.
The more reformed many old empires are, the faster they tend to die, and the main reason is that they don't grasp that degree. The one who needs to take strong medicine is already half-dead, and it is a back-to-back battle.
Obviously, the new Holy Roman Empire was not yet there, and the Ottoman Empire next door really needed to take drastic measures, and since the loss of the Balkan Peninsula, it was dying.
The Admiralty Philcos proposed: "Your Majesty, the island of Cofu has always been known as the gateway to Venice, and the Adriatic Sea cannot be considered truly safe without taking it.
Although the British have only included the Ionian Islands in their protectorate and have not stationed heavy troops, the potential threat still exists, and we must wait for an opportunity to take it. ”
Strength is always the best confidence, and with the commissioning of the Frederick, the Austrian Navy has begun to lose its patience and want to take the Gateway Land.
Franz nodded and said: "There is still some trouble to deal with this problem now, but the Foreign Office can contact the British first to see if it can be sold to us."
As far as I know, it seems that the local residents are very uninterested in the British, and the puppet government they support in the local area is not popular with the people, and they can plan local riots when necessary. ”
Whether the British will let it go, Franz is not worried. Once the Indian rebellion breaks out, the government will not be able to compromise if it wants to.
It's just that you can't have both fish and bear's paws, and once you get here, there is no way to exchange interests with the British in other regions.
Metternich replied, "Your Majesty, if it were just a Cofu Island, the British would probably let it go, and they were still worried that we would take advantage of the Ottoman Empire.
The British Foreign Office has been in frequent contact with the French lately, and it is very likely that they are trying to co-opt the French and prevent us from expanding our influence in the Mediterranean. ”
Cofu was only one of the Ionian Islands, which was very important to Austria, but it was also so important to the British.
Since 1815, when the local protectorate was granted, the London government had not stationed a heavy presence on the island. On the one hand, it is not to irritate Austria, and on the other hand, it is really unnecessary.
As for the encirclement of Austria? Whether it's in Malta or in the Strait of Gibraltar, why run to your doorstep?
Each additional military base comes with huge military spending. The London government is deep-pocketed, but they are not stupid.
Prime Minister Felix said: "There is not much left in the Mediterranean to expand, and the rest is either the territory of Britain and France, or the sphere of influence of the Ottoman Empire.
The Vienna system has just been established and is still very fragile, and we must be cautious in any action we take at this time. ”
Admiral Philcos analyzed: "Egypt cannot be touched, this is an agreement we have reached with Britain and France, and we cannot violate it."
Morocco has been abandoned, Algeria is in the pockets of the French, Tunisia is also considered meat on the board by Napoleon III, and these areas cannot be touched if you do not want to conflict with the French.
Not to mention the Ottoman Empire itself, if we really defeat them, it will only cheapen the Russians, and it will be more than worth the loss for us.
The most strategically important place left is Crete. By occupying this place, our sphere of influence extends to the Aegean Sea and increases our voice in the Mediterranean. ”
As for Cyprus, which now has a strategic value only for the Ottoman Empire, it may not be until the middle and late next century for Austria that the strategic value will be seen.
Not to mention Libya, the country of the desert is not in vain, the total population is only five or six hundred thousand nomads, Britain and France have not expanded here, not because they have no strength, but mainly because they have no value.
The elites of the same era, everyone's vision is about the same, and where Britain and France are not eye-catching, the Vienna government is naturally not interested.
Franz said casually: "The Ottoman Empire's finances are very bad, and if it were not for the sale of the remaining territory in the Balkans to the French, it is estimated that they would not even be able to pay the interest."
Now that the Sudanese government is reforming, it must be very short of money, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs can contact them to buy or lease Crete and Cyprus.
If they are willing to sell the suzerainty of the Libyan region, they can also take it. In the future, we may be able to build a railway from Libya to the Gulf of Guinea, which will be very helpful for us to consolidate our local rule. ”
It's useless to say anything else, what kind of prediction of the future, strategic vision, that's all brain-dead things to do. Without the aura of the protagonist, they are the kind that can't survive three episodes.
It's okay to fool ordinary people, but don't dream about fooling the elites of this era. People will only come to one conclusion - the emperor is crazy!
It is most effective to speak directly about the interests that everyone can see. If you can't convince everyone, you will be forced to do it, then be prepared to be a loner, or the kind of person who may betray and leave at any time.
Just as now, Franz considered the Congo Basin to be Austria's most valuable colony, and the Vienna government considered the Gulf of Guinea to be Austria's most valuable colony.
Knowing is knowing, but Franz is not prepared to convince everyone.
The benefits of the Gulf of Guinea are visible and will be profitable in another year or two, while the Congo Basin will not see a return without three or five years of continuous investment.
Saying that the future is the most nonsense, the international situation is ever-changing, and the future ownership of the colony is unknown, what are the development prospects to talk about?
The attitude of European countries towards colonies is similar, the colonies that can make profits in the short term are good land, and the areas that cannot be profitable are bad land.
Archduke Louis objected: "Your Majesty, there is no need for us to invest too much energy in the Mediterranean region, except for the island of Cofu, which is very weak.
There is little strategic value and no economic value in sight. It is better to take the opportunity to develop forces in the Pacific region, and not long ago there was news from the Far East that Britain and France are preparing to carry out a major operation, and we can also participate in it. ”
Franz shook his head and said, "How much benefit can we get by following behind Britain and France?"
A year passed for the navy to go back and forth to the Far East, and with the time of the war, it might take two years.
If we had done so, we might as well continue to colonize the continent. It is not good for us to stretch the battle line too long, and the interests that can be defended are the real interests. ”
This reason is not sufficient, but it is very appealing to everyone. There were no radicals in the Vienna cabinet, and Franz thought he was radical enough, and if a few more radicals were added to the Vienna government, something would happen.
Throughout the history of the world, all countries where radicals have been in power have ended in tragedy. Even if it is successful, it is only a temporary success, and it will inevitably be lost with interest in the end.
Just like now, if the radicals were in power, who would use diplomatic means would have gone straight to the top.
In the eyes of many people, bullying the Ottoman Empire is just a matter of worry, and there is no need to worry about it at all.
Actually? While constantly expanding and grabbing land, the number of enemies is also increasing, and behind each success, it is closer to defeat.
There is a bottom line for tolerance in all countries, and the First World War in history was definitely not just because countries saw the threat of Germany and started the war.
What's more, Germany's continuous expansion has stirred up the nerves of various countries, and once or twice the benefits involved are not great, so everyone will endure it, and after ten or eight times, what else is there to say, of course, it is to beat him.
If Wilhelm II's government could hold back, not to provoke the British, and pretend to be grandchildren for a few more years, would the situation still be so bad?
The answer is: no!
As long as the Germans did not blindly expand their navy and were not in a hurry to pull Italy on board. From the outside world's point of view, the German-Austrian alliance and the Franco-Russian Entente are evenly matched, and out of the balancing strategy of the European continent, John Bull cannot personally end up.
In other cases, there is no guarantee, but it can still be done by trying for an extra ten years.
What does ten years mean? This means that Germany's national strength can be further advanced, the population can increase by 10 million, and the advantage over Salted France will be more obvious, and the French will not be able to afford a war of attrition on the Western Front.
It also meant that the Russian Empire was in greater decline, internal contradictions were more intense, and the pressure on the Eastern Front was reduced.
Even if they cannot achieve a complete victory, they can defeat France and Russia, force the British to compromise and share world hegemony.
History has no ifs, and the radical Junker aristocracy single-handedly created the glory of the Second German Empire, and also single-handedly buried this empire.