Chapter 156: The General Trend of the Gold Standard Reform
In this world, there are always people who are proud and some people who are frustrated.
The biggest losers at the London Peace Conference were undoubtedly the Ottoman Empire and the Kingdom of Poland, the former having lost its city and land, and the people were exhausted and half-dead, and the latter even had autonomy.
Leaving aside the details, in terms of overall strategy, Britain, France, Austria, Russia and Prussia are all winners, and each has achieved its strategic goals.
The Russians were particularly outstanding, taking advantage from both ends, as if the unstoppable Russian Empire had returned.
But Alexander II, who was considered the biggest winner, was not happy now. The reconquest of the lost territory this time greatly boosted the morale of the army, which was originally a good thing.
It's a pity that the tsarist government can't afford to use it, and it's all one word - "poor". After the war is over, rewards for meritorious deeds are always indispensable, and the pension must also be given.
The destructive power of the war is enormous, and the lost territory regained by the tsarist government now needs to invest money to restore people's livelihood, and there is no return in the short term.
All of this requires money, which seems inconspicuous, but in fact it is really not enough without hundreds of millions of rubles.
Loans Alexander II did not count on for a long time, the international financial institutions were all scared by their play, and whoever lent them money was a fool.
St. Petersburg, Hermitage
Alexander II asked uncertainly: "Will the reform of the gold standard really help us survive the financial crisis?" ”
At present, only Britain and Austria have completed the reform of the gold standard among the major powers, and everyone knows that the gold standard is conducive to stabilizing the value of the currency and increasing the international competitiveness of the currency, but everyone is still waiting and seeing.
It's not that I don't want to follow suit, the question is what if I don't have enough gold reserves? Britain and Austria monopolize more than 75% of the world's gold, leaving other countries desperate.
The Russian Empire was fine, because the purchasing power of the market was low, and the Russians did not have much demand for foreign industrial and commercial products. After the foreign exchange created by the export of agricultural products has smoothed out the expenditure, it is still in a state of surplus.
However, this good life lasted only until the Russo-Prussian War, because of the war, the tsarist government's finances deteriorated, and it owed a large amount of foreign debt, and began to flow out of gold and silver in order to pay off the debt.
The outflow of gold and silver led to deflation in the country, further deterioration of government finances, and the tsarist government was forced to declare bankruptcy in order to avoid an exacerbation of the crisis.
It took a few years of recuperation before the Russian Empire breathed a sigh of relief. Through diplomatic means, most of the debts were erased, and an agreement was reached with the British to use grain offsets for repayment, and the economy of the Russian Empire was gradually normalized.
However, the financial problem remained the biggest problem for the tsarist government, and in order to change the financial difficulties, the tsarist government issued paper rubles in 1871 with the help of Austria.
This was just a test of the waters, the first batch of issuances amounted to only 50 million rubles, the gold and silver double standard system was implemented, and the reserves of the tsarist government were very large, which were quickly digested by the market.
As Russian-Austrian relations deteriorated, and the financial community of the tsarist government tended to cooperate with the British, the situation took a turn for the worse.
Without the endorsement of Austria, the second batch of paper rubles was issued in too large a volume, and it was cold in the capital market. In order to preserve the ratio, the tsarist government had to stop printing.
Britain and Russia agreed that the ruble would join the pound-gold system, and then the tsarist government would have to reform the gold standard.
The Russian Empire was also the world's leading producer of gold and silver, its economy was small, and its import and export trade was generally in a balanced state, so theoretically the tsarist government had no problems reforming the gold standard.
This was only theoretical, and with the credibility of the tsarist government, this changed. International capital did not recognize it at all, and unless it was pegged to the international currency, the tsarist government alone could not complete the gold standard reform.
This again involves the issue of currency settlement, whether it is pegged to the British pound and Aegis, people are very welcome, and the condition is very simple that you can only use other people's currencies to settle.
No matter who it approached, the Russian Empire was inevitably sheared. Alexander II didn't care about being sheared, he was more concerned about how much benefit the currency reform would bring and whether he could get out of the financial crisis.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Cristanval: "Your Majesty, theoretically after the completion of the currency reform, we can receive a seigniorage of 52 million ~ 55 million gold rubles per year.
This money is still increasing as the economy grows. It will be of great help to improve our financial situation. ”
(Note: 1 new ruble = 0.774 grams of gold)
More than 50 million gold rubles, this figure is already not small, more than a tenth of the revenue of the tsarist government.
In order to keep the seigniorage growing, in addition to economic growth, it is necessary to ensure that there is enough gold.
Cristanval was not worried about the reserves, and the annual gold production of the Russian Empire was still enough for reserves. Otherwise, he would not dare to reform the gold standard.
You must know that after the currency reform, the newly issued gold ruble will be pegged to the pound sterling, and the exchange rate will fluctuate, and there will not be enough reserves to stabilize the value of the currency.
After a moment of hesitation, Alexander II made a decision: "Then let's start!" However, when working with the British, you must be vigilant and not be fooled by them. ”
This step means that Russia and Austria have begun to split financially, and it also marks that the end of the Russian-Austrian alliance is not far off.
There is no way, it is all the fault of interests. The tsarist government disliked Austria's bid too low, and Franz felt that the Russians were too greedy and invested too much to recoup the cost.
The French in the original time and space were cried in the pit, the tsarist government fell, and all the huge debts were lost, and the French consortium was hit hard.
With lessons from the past, Franz naturally chose to be cautious. Austria is more risky to invest in the Russians than the French, and with the Russian style, no one can guarantee that the debts will be too high to a certain extent, and the Russians will not provoke a war between the two countries in order to repay their debts.
Of course, the fact that the Austrian financial community does not have the British financial tycoons is also an important factor. After all, Austria itself also has a great need for funds, and it cannot afford to fill the hole with money for the Russians.
If the tsarist government does not come out of the financial crisis as soon as possible, once the currency reform is completed and the ruble is tied to the pound, it is unknown whether the British will be willing to lend money.
The debt between Russia and Austria is already a dangerous figure, and Franz does not dare to risk hundreds of millions of Aegis with the Russians, and once he loses it, Austria's economy will also be hit hard.
……
It was not only the Russians who wanted to reform the gold standard, but the French, who were even more anxious than them.
In recent years, silver production has been increasing, and the ratio of gold and silver exchange has been changing, which is a big problem for the settlement of double standard currencies.
The value of the franc also changed from time to time due to the ratio of gold and silver exchange, which made it difficult for merchants engaged in international trade.
The instability of the franc has undoubtedly weakened the competitiveness of French goods abroad. With the boom in international trade, this change is becoming more and more serious.
Before 1854, France's total export trade was more than 1.5 times that of Austria, and by 1870 the total export trade between the two countries was almost the same.
Of course, there are natural resource advantages, for example, the development of the Austrian agricultural product finishing industry has increased the added value of products and led to the growth of exports. and the benefits of being the first to start the second industrial revolution.
The instability of the franc currency is also an important factor, and in order to avoid the risk of uncertainty caused by currency changes, many capitalists prefer to choose British and Austrian products under the same conditions.
In the last five years, the average annual growth rate of export trade between Britain and Austria has not been less than 3%, while France has only a pitiful 0.8%, and this figure is still declining.
Are the products of French commercial and industrial products poor? The answer is no. Except for individual industries, there is no epochal gap in the industrial technology of Britain, France and Austria.
Now the market competition has not reached the stage of white heat, everyone maintains a relatively high profit, otherwise they will not grow together.
However, it is also an indisputable fact that France is gradually falling behind, and the market share of French goods in the international market is getting smaller and smaller.
Of course, compared to the original time and space, the current situation in France is still much better, and the domestic economy has not been hit hard.
In order to increase the competitiveness of export goods, the reform of the currency of the franc was gradually put on the agenda, and it was Napoleon IV who led the reform of the franc gold standard.
This is also the political legacy left to him by Napoleon III, as long as the reform of the franc gold standard is completed and the international competitiveness of French goods is increased, it can be supported by the capitalists.
As early as 1870, the French government began to prepare for the reform of the gold standard, and continued to buy gold from the international market. There is no way, who let France not produce enough gold?
God did not favor France this time, and in addition to the lack of coal in the French colonies, the gold production was very low.
If you don't have it, you can buy it, and compared to the bitter tsarist government, the French government can be called rich.
After several years of preparation, the French had scraped together 800 tons of gold, and Napoleon IV was not satisfied.
This is a lot for most countries, but it is still far from the United Kingdom and Austria.
Moreover, with the current economic size of the Great French Empire, it is really not much to take 800 tons of gold as reserves. The bottom line in Napoleon IV's mind was a thousand tons, and if the reserves were low, it would be a big trouble for someone to speculate on the franc exchange rate.
Paris, Palace of Versailles
Napoleon IV asked incredulously: "What, the market does not receive gold?" ”
This is definitely big news when it gets out, and at least the price of gold will soar significantly.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Allen explained bitterly: "Your Majesty, there are many countries that have carried out gold standard reform in recent years, and everyone is rushing to buy gold in the market.
At present, the world's main gold producing areas are in the hands of Britain and Austria, and they deliberately control the outflow of gold, and the amount of gold circulating in the market is seriously insufficient.
In recent years, due to the lack of gold circulation, the price of gold has been rising, and the gold-silver exchange ratio has risen from 1:18.6 last year to 1:23.5 now.
Even at this price, it's hard to buy enough gold. At present, only two or three hundred tons of gold flow out of the international market every year, which is simply not enough for everyone to share. ”
There is no way, there are really many countries that have recently carried out gold standard reforms.
In 1873, the Nordic Confederation began the reform of the gold standard, followed by the German Federal Empire, the Kingdom of Prussia, and now the Russian Empire.
Regardless of the Russian Empire, the amount of gold in circulation in the country was basically sufficient for the currency reform, and the few remaining countries were not major gold producers.
The production of gold may not be enough, but the reserves for issuing currency must be sufficient, so it can only be bought on the international market.
At the critical moment of the gold standard reform in European countries, it happened to meet the joint investment of British and Austrian capital, which made huge profits.
It should not be said that it is just right, it is an inevitable result. Capital is profit-seeking, and the bamboo poles sent to the door are not knocked on the white side.
In this context, not only the French are short of gold, but other countries that are undergoing the gold standard reform are also facing the problem of gold shortage.