Chapter 67: Friend and Foe Are Inseparable
Although the British government did not follow up directly, they went into parliamentary brawling mode, which frightened a lot of people.
Anyone with a modicum of political acumen knows who this is for.
The loss of both the British and French food consumer markets would drop Austria's total exports by one-sixth.
The Russians, who are dominated by agriculture, are even worse, and they can keep half of the trade exports, which can be regarded as God forbid.
Under the fierce market competition, the Russian agriculture, which is backward in terms of productive forces, will directly lose its market competitiveness because of the relationship between production costs.
However, the tsarist government did not dare to promote new agricultural technologies, because production capacity is not equal to profit, grain cannot be sold, and no matter how high the output is, it will be in vain.
Even industrial upgrading, the tsarist government did not dare to engage in it, which was similar to Austria in the last agricultural crisis.
Limited by the level of domestic economic development, Franz has to take a leisurely approach to the development of animal husbandry, for fear of overcapacity in animal husbandry again.
Austria's livestock industry has only developed in the last two or three years. The main reason is that the purchasing power of the people has increased because of economic development.
First there is market demand, and then there is commodity production. This order must not be reversed, otherwise there will be a big mess.
The tsarist government was in a hurry, and so was the Vienna government. It's just that the Russians are really in a hurry, and the Vienna government is just putting on a show.
The diplomatic slogans were shouted earth-shattering, and the government operated like a tiger for a while, but the actual effect was 0.5, and it looked like it was in a hurry.
For example, after the French announced the big farm plan, the Vienna government announced that it would suspend the qualification of agricultural processing enterprises.
When it was learned that the British Parliament had begun to discuss whether to follow up, the Vienna government issued another notice on agricultural transformation, advising the public to reduce the area under grain cultivation in response to the agricultural crisis.
The direct sequelae is that the stock prices of domestic agricultural companies have plummeted, and even some food production enterprises with little impact have also been implicated.
Of course, not long after the economic crisis, the current stock price is not high, and it can't fall anywhere.
To put it bluntly, the French have only announced a plan, and the Paris government itself has not yet figured out how to implement it.
The refusal of capitalists to invest, and the fact that they have to be bought at a loss by the government itself, is not as simple as it is said.
How to do it, everyone has no experience. The government directly sends officials to manage it, which will greatly increase administrative costs, and corruption is also a big problem.
If the sky-high price of food is finally produced and the people cannot afford to eat it, it will be a big trouble.
Contracting to capitalists seems simple, but the problem is the discipline of capitalists, and it is really difficult to be reassured.
Take an empty shell project, cheat the government of subsidies, and finally import cheap grain from abroad to fill the hole, and the Paris government will be wronged.
Supervision is simple to say, but the problem is that the farms are built in colonies, and although the French government directly administers them, the central government is doomed to lack control from far away from the emperor.
In addition to the management problems, the indigenous people in the colonies were also a headache. French Africa is not Austrian Africa, and most of the land is ownerial.
You can't avoid it, you can't put all the farms in the desert, right?
Desert agriculture is still in the research stage in the 21st century, and the French have not been able to open it up in these years.
It is not possible to expel directly, and a bad colony will be full of wolves. Given the lessons of the Egyptian rebellion, the French government had to be cautious.
After all, indigenous rebels are easy to deal with, but indigenous rebels with external support are different. If there were a few more Egyptian rebellions, the French government would have no money to carry out the big farm program.
There are so many problems to think about, and if one is not operated well, the big farm plans of the French will be reduced to a laughing stock.
Not to mention the British, those who know a little bit about the British Parliament know that if they can agree on opinions in a year and a half, it is all a super-level performance.
This kind of grand strategy is possible for three or five years. In particular, the major food-producing countries have mobilized their forces to lobby the British Parliament.
Many people are still looking forward to a turnaround, and some even believe that Britain and France are just waiting for the price to sell, using the "grain self-sufficiency plan" to force Russia and Austria to make concessions in international politics.
There are still many people who support this statement, including many people in Britain and France, who think so.
At the Vienna Palace, with the news of the Anglo-French "food self-sufficiency plan", Franz also felt the pressure.
From the people to the government, there is a call to negotiate with Britain and France to settle disputes.
After all, this is a secret plan, except for a few high-level people, everyone else knows nothing, and it is almost inevitable that this kind of thing will happen.
Influenced by this, on August 16, 1885, the Vienna government also sent a note to the British and French ministers to Austria for an in-depth communication.
After the Vienna government deliberately showed a hint of compromise and concession, Britain and France, which thought they had found Austria's soft underbelly, naturally opened their mouths.
And then there is no then, and if you can't talk about it, you can't talk about it. The Foreign Office in Vienna is anxious and paddling, it looks like a lot of work has been done, and it is still tough in the substantive negotiations.
Franz incredulously: "The Russians are going to withdraw from the free trade system, is the news confirmed?" β
The French have already withdrawn from the free trade system, and the United States has withdrawn from the free trade system, and if the Russians withdraw from the free trade system, it is estimated that this thing will be doomed.
Foreign Secretary Wessenberg nodded: "To be exact, the Russians are only showing signs of withdrawal, and it may also be a cover played by the tsarist government."
Yesterday afternoon, Alexander III summoned the British minister to Russia, and the British grain self-sufficiency plan was put into business, which ended in an unhappy dissolution.
This morning, the Russian Foreign Ministry sent a note to Britain, warning the London government not to play with fire, accusing the British of seriously undermining the free trade system with their food self-sufficiency plans.
If the British do not abandon the food self-sufficiency program, then the Russian Empire will impose trade sanctions against Britain. β
The destruction of the free trade system may probably happen, but it depends on who is on the side.
Theoretically, as long as the British did not raise tariffs and rely on political means to suppress competitors, but adopted a fair competition method to achieve food self-sufficiency, it would be in line with the spirit of free trade.
Of course, it is reasonable to criticize the British government for funding agriculture, interfering with the normal development of the market, and violating the principle of "freedom."
After all, Britain advertises "absolute freedom", and if you say it, you must be responsible.
It's just that on this issue, as far as the Russians are concerned, Austria has no say.
From beginning to end, Franz did not speak out on this issue. It's not that it doesn't see, the problem is that Austria has gone even further.
Isn't it just a state-owned farm, and there are still fewer things in Austria? Do you really think that during the last agricultural crisis, Austria's grain production capacity was rapidly reduced, and the people took the initiative to reduce the grain planting area?
How naΓ―ve!
Tens of millions of farmers, at most one-tenth of the people under the government's call, have cut some of their production capacity, and the rest is still what to do and how to continue to do it.
It's not a question of listening or disobedience, the key is not to grow food, let them grow what?
Cash crops are easy to say, but they also require technology. If you don't sow seeds, you will reap them.
At most, the price of grain will fall, and if you can't sell it, you can keep it for yourself or feed your livestock.
Once the cash crops are misjudged and cannot be sold, they can only rot in the ground.
The government's encouragement and promotion will also promote vegetable cultivation in the surrounding areas of the city, and remote mountainous areas will not be afraid at all.
The key is that Austria is a market economy, not a planned economy, and the government does not know the demand for every cash crop in the market.
Rather than leave the decision to the bureaucracy and make people angry, Franz preferred to let the people continue to grow food.
The big deal is to adjust the production capacity and leave it to the state-owned farms. I really don't know what to plant, it's a big deal to leave the land fallow for a few more years.
After pondering for a moment, Franz asked, "What are the chances of the British compromising?" β
With great difficulty, he managed to lure the British to the edge of the cliff, and almost kicked them down with a kick, and Franz did not want the British to be pulled back again.
Nothing else is known, as soon as the British start the food self-sufficiency program, they will start a long-term loss pattern, which is worse than the loss of the French.
Due to the restrictions of the free trade system, Britain must import food from all countries equally, and it must continue to have low tariffs that are now close to zero.
This meant that Britain could not support a little brother as a granary and squeeze Austrian agricultural products out of the market.
Opening a farm in the colony seemed to be easy for the British, but in fact it was very cheap.
The first is the population, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other regions, are typically sparsely populated.
Even if it is mechanical agriculture, it requires a lot of labor. At least until water conservancy projects are built and road traffic is improved, the demand for labor will be low.
Recruiting workers from the country, the labor cost alone is enough to make the British government feel pain, and amortization is amortized to the cost of food production, which is absolutely sky-high.
There are no barriers, and the more you grow this food, the more you lose. It is estimated that after a few years of loss, the British people will realize that there is no "way to make money" to grow food.
When the opposition party comes to power, it will cut this money-losing strategy in half, leaving behind a pile of unfinished projects to prove the incompetence of the previous government.
Of course, India has a large population and fertile land, which is very suitable for agricultural production; The problem is that there are a little too many Indians, and it is a problem to develop agriculture here, to feed the locals.
It is estimated that the food produced will be eaten up before the domestic support is provided. It is not impossible to give priority to satisfying the country, the key is that the stomach is extremely hungry, and people are also going to rebel.
The planting of cotton in front of it has triggered a major uprising, and now there are two new neighbors from Russia and Austria, and the British government will never dare to toss at this time.
After pondering for a moment, Wessenberg replied slowly, "Half to half!"
The Russian market, as large as it may seem, has very limited purchasing power in reality. This limited market is still occupied by us for nearly seventy percent, and the British only get some scraps.
Even if the Russian market is lost, the total export trade of the British will fall by one or two percentage points at most, and the British can still bear this fluctuation.
But the British government was not keen on the food self-sufficiency plan, and Gladstone gave the choice to Parliament, and the cabinet did not even make a position clear. β
This answer is equal to no, half to half, which is not so much an analysis and judgment as a gamble.
I have to admit that although the Russians' methods were a little rougher, the effect was very good.
The tsarist government gave the British half a chance of giving up. Under normal circumstances, Austria would have done a little more, and in the end the British Parliament would veto, or set the bill on hold indefinitely, and the matter would have passed.
A series of proposals came to Franz's mind, and he rejected them again.
"At this point, it's no longer appropriate for us to do anything.
Next, it's up to the French to perform, and presumably Napoleon IV will not give up this opportunity. β
As soon as he finished speaking, Franz felt that something was wrong. I don't know when Austria spent more time cooperating with the enemy than with its allies.
Whether this is a moral degradation or a distortion of human nature is a question worth pondering.
But what is certain is that this opening is not operated in the right way, and if it continues like this, Franz will have to wonder if he can still distinguish between friend and foe.
"There are only eternal interests among nations, and there are no eternal enemies". Now Franz's approach fully illustrates this sentence.