Chapter 697: Hypothesis Exclusion
"Order, the radio station will immediately resume contact with Xuzhou!"
As soon as Meng Shaoyuan gave this order, everyone immediately became nervous.
Let's do it!
It's finally time to get started.
A full hour.
No one understood what Meng Shao wanted to do.
But everyone knows that once Director Meng decides to make a move, the offensive will inevitably continue!
"Let Xuzhou, in this hour, particularly nervous, manifested as, constantly sweating with a towel, drinking water often very fast, and in terms of smoking, one after another, or, obviously there is still half a cigarette in their hands, but subconsciously go to get cigarettes again, these people temporarily let them leave the yard and find another place for them to stay. In terms of continuous smoking, pay special attention to investigate whether they have been such old smokers before. ”
"These are all suspects?"
"No, these can be temporarily ruled out."
……
"What does Meng Shaoyuan mean by doing this? He wants to find out the inner demons among these people? ”
The gazes of Koichi Habara and Yasuei Itauchi fell on Kojiro Kawamoto at the same time.
"No, he's using the opposite method." Kojiro Kawamoto pondered there for a while: "This is a hypothetical elimination method. Meng Shao originally set a benchmark for the suspect. He hypothetically sketched the image of the suspect in his mind, and since he was able to lurk and complete a very important task, the psychological quality of this suspect was excellent.
As soon as he came up, he told the thirty-five people that the spy was among them, and no one wanted to be suspected of being a spy, so most of them would be nervous. And what about real spies? On the contrary, the more nervous he is, the more he has to behave as if nothing happened, and even more calm and calm than before. ”
"So, our people fell into Meng Shaoyuan's trap because of this?" Yasui Itachi was worried.
"Yes." Kojiro Kawamoto nodded: "Calm, strong psychological quality, the most basic survival conditions for an excellent spy." However, this was instead used by Meng Shaoyuan. This spy, he didn't know that he was facing an unusually powerful and terrifying enemy, and even he didn't know that the person in charge was Meng Shaoyuan! ”
It's terrible.
Meng Shaoyuan was originally in Shanghai, but he commanded remotely and set a trap in Xuzhou!
He doesn't need to meet, he has already begun to pull this ghost out of the water little by little!
……
A total of eighteen people have been temporarily ruled out of suspicion.
Seventeen left!
"Emergency!"
A telegram was sent to Xue Sixu.
Xue Sixu took a closer look:
"The latest information from the Xuzhou Station of the Military Commander, from 7 to 8 o'clock in the evening on April 23, the Japanese hidden spies and the associates lurking in Xuzhou had a secret contact, I need you to immediately tell what you have done during this time!"
"I, I say!"
"I have evidence, I have evidence that I am not a spy!"
Several people scrambled to call out.
……
"Meng Shaoyuan's telegram asked Xue Sixu to tell the remaining suspects that the sleeper spy was ...... on the night of April 23."
"Kawamoto-kun, what does this mean?"
Itauchi Yasuei just asked, Kawamoto Kojiro hadn't answered yet, and Koichi Hawara had already spoken: "Your Excellency General, do you remember what you were doing on April 23rd?" ”
"This ......" Itachi Yasuei thought for a long time: "It's been so many days, I really can't remember it for a while." ”
"yes, it's been so many days, and I can't remember." Hakohara smiled bitterly: "But what about a sleeper spy?" He lives in danger every day, and he is constantly worried that he will be exposed. When another day finally endures, he will reflect on what he has done that day and whether there have been any problems, so he will remember what happened each day clearly, and he knows that he has not been in contact with any of his companions at all on April 23rd! ”
"So ......"
……
"He'll remember that he didn't have a relationship with his own people at all on April 23." Meng Shaoyuan smiled faintly: "He can also tell his movements this day, he is not worried that he will expose himself because of this matter." Do you know why I'm making them wait an hour? I have other intentions than to see how they react! ”
……
"By the way, I know why Meng Shaoyuan made them wait for an hour." Habara Mitsuichi said fiercely: "In addition to observing those nervous people, he also kept signaling the Xuzhou side to get the so-called documents and intelligence, which is to convey a very strong message, and the military command has more and more clues."
Our sleeper spy was already in a state of high tension, and an hour of waiting, and the other party's hints were so strong, no matter how good his psychological quality was, would cause a feeling of anxiety. He has to wrestle with his own nervousness and be on the lookout for his opponent's next move, and as time goes on, he will make mistakes in judgment! ”
"No...... I mean, there will be errors of judgment! Kawamoto Kojiro's face also changed: "In many cases found in American criminal psychology research, when a suspect cannot get rid of the crime for a long time, if there is an opportunity to clear his suspicion, his first reaction is to seize this opportunity."
In 1925, in the serial murder case in San Antonio, Texas, the police caught a suspect, but without any evidence to convict them, they enlisted the assistance of Karen, a female psychologist. Honey set up a plan to deliberately give the suspect a chance to get away with it, and sure enough, the suspect with extremely strong psychological quality quickly seized this opportunity when he found out during the long interrogation process of the police.
As a result, Honey leads the suspect into a trap that has been set up a long time ago, and the method she takes is to make you prove your innocence......"
……
"Suspect, let him prove his innocence." Meng Shaoyuan played with a box of cigarettes in his hand: "When you interrogate him, take the initiative to attack, and he will build a strong defense line to protect himself." On the battlefield, there will always be more trouble in the offensive than in the defensive battle. But what about letting him take the initiative to attack? Then the situation will be reversed.
The suspect will be eager to seize this opportunity and try his best to prove his innocence. And in this process, he needs to use the second evidence to prove the first evidence, and the third evidence to prove the second evidence. Evidence after evidence, lies and lies, he will be completely messed up, he will expose himself! ”
……
"This is the 'Karen Honey Theory', let the suspect prove himself guilty!"
"Our sadness is that we can only watch our people be exposed step by step." Hakuhara Koichi sighed: "There's no way to remind him, I know that he is heading towards the trap, but I don't even have the ability to pull him!" ”
……
"Let those who can't answer for a while be temporarily dismissed."
Meng Shaoyuan gave a new order: "How many people take the initiative to report their movements?" ”
"Eleven!"
"What about those who take the initiative to report, but when it is really time to report, they think about it for a long time before remembering what they did that day?"
"There are six more."
"There is a good chance that the suspect is among these six people. If you open your mouth, you can tell what you were doing that day? ”
"Four. Chen Yishao, it was his birthday, and he invited a few people to drink together...... Liang Zicheng was on duty that day, and their shifts were regular, so I remember it very clearly......
Fu Binsheng, who was promoted that day, drank a few glasses in the officer's dormitory in the evening to celebrate...... Shi Desen, it's a little funny, he raised a little wife outside, but he was discovered by the eldest wife, and the eldest wife was caught raping in bed that day, and many people know it......"
"The point of hypothetical exclusion is that you have to be sure that your assumptions are completely correct." Meng Shaoyuan looked at these four people:
"The inner ghost is a cautious person, he won't do anything that might expose himself, the battle on the front line in Xuzhou is so tense, and he invites others to drink on his birthday? That's a building on the tuyere, and the inner ghost won't do that. Chen Yishao's suspicion can be ruled out for the time being.
The same is true for Shi Desen, raising a young wife and being caught raping in bed, even if he is acting deliberately, he will be distrusted by his boss, which is not good for his latent work. He can basically rule out suspicion.
The two people left? A person who has a regular life and clearly remembers his shift schedule. One gets promoted, and just celebrates by himself, and he is very able to control himself. ”
Hypothetical Exclusion:
Regardless of whether it is right or wrong, under the benchmark of the inner ghost that has been established, all those who do not meet the conditions are excluded, and then all that remains is the target to be found.
If it turns out that your benchmark is wrong, then there is no doubt about the goals set under the benchmark, and a new benchmark needs to be set anew.
Meng Shaoyuan didn't have any suspicions: "Immediately control Liang Zicheng and Fu Binsheng!" ”
"How do you find that real target from the two of them?"
"You still haven't understood?" Meng Shaoyuan smiled: "The criminal needs to use the second evidence to prove the first evidence, but the second evidence may put him to death!" ”
……
"Liang Zicheng, Fu Binsheng!"
"Here!"
"According to our intelligence, in addition to meeting with his companion on April 23, that spy also sent out a piece of information on April 26, the specific time was 3 p.m., what are you doing on this day?"
"This?" Fu Binsheng hesitated: "I think about it, I think about it, I can definitely think of it." ”
"Report sir!" Liang Zicheng replied loudly: "From 2 to 4 o'clock in the afternoon that day, I have been in the office to study an intelligence sent from the front, and many colleagues are with me!" ”
"Oh, really?" Xue Sixu smiled: "You remember it so clearly." ”
……
"It's over." Itachi Yasuying's face turned pale: "The spy we arranged, codenamed 'Kappa', his Chinese name, Liang Zicheng!" ”