On the afternoon of July 23, when French President Poincaré and his entourage returned to France by ship after visiting St. Petersburg, Austria-Hungary Foreign Minister Bertheold was finally ready to submit an ultimatum to Salvia.

It was a twist and turn, and it was initially the proposal of the Austro-Hungarian Chief of the General Staff, Conrad, to launch a surprise offensive against Serbia on 1 July, taking advantage of the sympathy of the countries towards Austria-Hungary. It only ended because Conrad was too big-hearted and intended to carve up Serbia so that the government could not accept it.

This was followed by a local war that was taken with German support. According to German expectations, at this time Austria-Hungary should have taken Belgrade by surprise. It is also because of the opposition of Hungarian Prime Minister Tisza that he has not been able to make the trip so far.

And now the move of Austria-Hungary has aroused the minds of various countries, especially Russia, which has close ties with Serbia. The most fatal thing was that Russia had already deciphered the Austro-Hungarian telegram and knew what was going to happen next in Vienna. At this time, Austria-Hungary, because of its own procrastination, dragged Germany to which it had given assurances.

On the evening of the 23rd, the Austro-Hungarian Minister to Serbia, Gisr, delivered an ultimatum to Acting Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer Paku. As for Serbian Prime Minister Pašić, hearing the news, he left the capital on the 22nd to go to the election campaign and has already left Belgrade.

In the face of Gessel's ultimatum, Acting Prime Minister Paku refused to accept the ultimatum on the grounds that Serbia was in the process of elections and many ministers were not available. It's just that Gisle left this ultimatum on the table, as if to say, "Whatever you want." Then he turned and walked away.

Serbia soon sent the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum to St. Petersburg, and Russian Foreign Minister Sazonov said loudly after receiving Serbia's telegram. "This is a war in Europe."

In fact, when Sazonov said this, he had not yet read the Austro-Crème ultimatum, which was also an expression of reflection on the Russian government during the crisis in Bosnia-Herzegovina in 1908. In the Bosnia-Herzegovina crisis, Russia was forced to make concessions because the wounds of the Russo-Japanese War had not yet healed, which was a shame in the eyes of the Russian government. Although later the Balkan League was formed in tandem with the Russian ambassador to Serbia, Hatwig. It received a lot of benefits from the Ottomans, but in the face of Austria and Germany's concessions, it still irritated the Russian leadership.

In the Franco-Russian alliance just now, with assurances from the French government, Sazonov does not intend to make Serbia back down even a step, otherwise Russia's influence in the Balkans will fall to an intolerable level.

He first summoned the Austro-Hungarian ambassador Szapari and told him that Russia firmly opposed the two clauses of the ultimatum and that the Serbs would never disband the National Self-Defense Forces and would not allow Austro-Hungarian detectives to investigate the assassination of Sarajevo on Serbian territory. Szapari explained that Austria-Hungary highlighted the suppression of terrorist movement riots, which was beneficial to all civilized countries.

Sazonov replied to him. "That's a mistake, you're setting fire to Europe."

After receiving the Austro-Hungarian ambassador, Sazonov called a meeting of the ministers at 3 o'clock in the afternoon and issued an urgent notice that Yanuszkovich, chief of the General Staff, and Grigorievich, minister of the Navy, would also attend the meeting. Why did Sazonov, as Foreign Minister, have so much power to convene meetings? It turned out that Goremykin, who is now the prime minister, is a nominal person, and now that Tsar Nicholas II is not (the tsar is on a yacht in the Gulf of Finland), he has the right to take over the prime minister and make decisions.

During the meeting, Sazonov asked the Chief of the General Staff to prepare the Russian army for combat readiness and put forward a plan for partial military mobilization. Then Sazonov ordered the recall of all diplomatic envoys, as well as officials of the Near East Directorate of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and demanded that they immediately report to him.

Treasury Secretary Buck was the first to respond to his plan, and he came to the Foreign Office at 11 a.m. But when Sazonov was out of town, he talked to Schilling, an assistant to the foreign minister.

Buck asked. "Is it possible to fight?"

Schilling spoke without hesitation. "Sazonov thinks it is inevitable."

In view of this, Buck wondered whether the Russian possessions in Berlin would be transferred immediately. Schilling also said yes without hesitation. Buck immediately proceeded with the same pace as the Germans, and before the Council of Ministers had even begun, he ordered his agent in Berlin to transfer 100 million rubles deposited in German banks to Paris and St. Petersburg.

While Buck was rapidly transferring Russian assets out of Germany, Sazonov was discussing military mobilization with the head of the army. At the end of November 1912, when the Balkan War was escalating, Russian Military Minister Sukhhomlinov drew up a plan for a "partial" military mobilization aimed only at Austria-Hungary.

His idea was to deter Vienna by force without alarming Germany. Because Germany might be able to carry out military mobilization in fulfillment of its obligations to its ally Austria-Hungary, a crucial conclusion arose that the Polish military districts of Russia could not mobilize troops in order not to alarm the 8th Army in East Prussia.

Now Sazonov asked the Chief of the General Staff Yanushkovich precisely to develop such a plan, and Yanuszkovich agreed to the request of the Minister of Foreign Affairs.

However, after returning to the General Staff, Yanushkovich summoned General Dobzherosky, the head of the military mobilization department of the Russian army, to discuss this partial military mobilization plan. To this, Dobrzerowsky told the chief of the General Staff that it was a thankless stupid task. Because in order to effectively mobilize the military against Austria-Hungary, it was necessary to make full use of Warsaw as a railway stopover. It would also be unrealistic that the military mobilization would not reach Poland, which would mean that Austria could only be attacked in the narrow territory of Galicia or through Romania.

At 3 p.m., the Council of Ministers convened a special session of 2 hours, at which Sazonov, as convener, prepared a five-point proposal for action to be discussed.

First, Russia promised to join other powers in forcing Austria to extend the ultimatum. Second, Russia advised Serbia to declare that it would not prevent the Austro-Hungarian invasion, but leave its fate to the great powers. (Russia has just sent a large shipment of weapons and ammunition to Belgrade.) ）

Thirdly, tomorrow the Chief of the General Staff and the Minister of the Navy will go to the Tsarschasya to attend a meeting of the Privy Council, at which the Tsar will be asked to approve the military mobilization of the four military districts of Kiev, Osad, Moscow, Kazan, and to put the Black Sea Fleet and the Baltic Fleet in combat readiness (interestingly, Austria-Hungary is not adjacent to either fleet). Fourth, the Russian army should begin to stock up on military supplies and prepare for war. Fifth, Russian assets were to be withdrawn from Germany and Austria-Hungary.

The five-point proposal for action was adopted at this meeting, and after the meeting, Sazonov proposed to mobilize secretly, which was also promised by the chief of the General Staff Yanuszkovich.

After a busy meeting, Sazonov summoned Serbian Ambassador Spalakovic. This time, the Serbian ambassador brought the latest instructions from the country, and Serbian Prime Minister Pašić informed the Russian Foreign Minister that the current state of the Serbian army was completely unable to resist the Austro-Hungarian attack, so he begged Russia for advice.

Sazonov told the Serbian ambassador in front of him to ask them to toughen up. As a sign of good faith, Sazonov suggested that Serbia accept the terms of the ultimatum that would not be afraid of insults, but never accept articles 5 and 6. He also persuaded Ambassador Spalakovic to allow Austria-Hungary to enter Serbia on its own, and at the same time Sazonov assured Serbia that Serbia would receive Russian assistance. The general implication is that Serbia can accept certain terms, but will not obey them. In the event of a war, Russia will fight for Serbia.

After receiving the Serbian ambassador, Sazonov summoned the German ambassador Puttales. From the morning the German ambassador had been trying to negotiate with the Russians about the ultimatum in Vienna, but without success. Now facing the Russian Foreign Minister in front of him, Ambassador Puttales tried to localize the contradictions between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, but this provoked a strong rebuttal from Sazonov. He pointed out that the Vienna ultimatum undermined the solemn declaration made by Austria-Hungary to Serbia in March 1909 for the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was subordinated to the will of the European powers, not only Austria-Hungary.

After a bit of bickering between the two sides, Sazonov finally began to get to the point. He addressed Ambassador Putares. "I do believe now that Austria-Hungary wanted to find an excuse to annex Serbia. If this is the case, Russia will go to war with Austria-Hungary. ”

Putales was shocked by this, and he tried to reassure Sazonov. The worst outcome of the ultimatum was that Austria-Hungary launched a punitive military campaign against Serbia, which was by no means a territorial battle, and Austria-Hungary had no plans to annex Serbia.

However, the assurances of the German ambassador did not convince Sazonov, and the two continued to talk to each other, but neither convinced. After negotiations with Sazonov were fruitless, Putales sent a telegram to the German Foreign Office, in which he reassured Jagau that despite Sazonov's heated rhetoric. But his aim was to Europeanize the ultimatum. He expects that Russia will not intervene.

That evening, Sazonov met with the last French ambassador, Pareologue, who had arrived, and he spoke to the French ambassador. "Germany's wholehearted support for Vienna had no intention of calming the situation. So I told Puttales very frankly that we should not let Serbia and Austria-Hungary have a separate grudge. ”

Sazonov made an astonishing decision on the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum in just a few hours, and he took matters into his own hands without consulting three other people who had a direct influence on Russia's foreign policy. The Tsar was on a yacht in the Gulf of Finland, but he had already received an invitation to a meeting of the Privy Council in Tsars' Village the following day. French President Poincaré is sailing in the Baltic Sea and returning to France. Serbian Prime Minister Pašić has not yet launched the election of prime minister, returning to Belgrade. When the three wake up on Saturday morning, they will see a different world.