It is late autumn on the east coast, and the port of Qingdao, which is a trade center and a financial center, is in a depression due to the relative shrinkage of the traditional European market.

The third Qingdao Autumn Commodity Trade Fair, which lasted for a whole month, has just ended, but the number of merchants who came here in May is less than half of that of previous years, and correspondingly, the turnover at this year's fair is naturally not very optimistic. In the first two successful expositions -- the first two domestic enterprises made profits of 300,000 yuan and 450,000 yuan respectively -- the profits of the third exposition are now only less than 400,000 yuan, which makes the faces of some relevant units not look very good.

However, this is a systemic risk, which is a force majeure factor for domestic production enterprises. The rise of mercantilism in the Kingdom of France, a large continental country and the second largest market on the East Coast, led to a drastic increase in tariffs on goods imported from the East Coast, which made textiles, which accounted for a considerable share of the East Coast's exports, suddenly unprofitable and costly. Although they did not only target the East Coasters, because this group of arrogant French also imposed high tariffs on goods imported from the Netherlands, England, Genoa, Portugal, Germany, etc., their actions had in fact severely hindered the sale of goods from the East Coast, and greatly damaged the interests of the East Coast Republic.

It is well known that the East Coast now spends a lot of money every year on immigration: including shipbuilding, transportation, port construction, and the training of related sailors; development and construction of transit bases; the opening of routes for new immigrants; Which of these doesn't cost a lot of money? The main source of the government's revenue is the profits of state-owned enterprises, followed by taxes from various industries (including business taxes from state-owned and private enterprises). personal income tax, property tax, etc.). Nowadays, overseas trade has changed. The profits of export enterprises have plummeted sharply or even at a loss, and the central government's fiscal revenues are bound to shrink. Sadly, however, the central government now had no intention of cutting spending (in fact, it is difficult to cut much for the sake of social stability) or immigration, so a huge fiscal deficit in 1650 was inevitable. After all, the financial gap of one million yuan is not so easy to make up!

To make matters worse, after France took the lead, the rest of Europe followed suit. Although they did not raise taxes as dramatically as the French, they also more or less squeezed the profit margins of the East Coasters. Cutting off people's financial means is like killing their parents, and this bad incident caused by the French has caused the East Coast to lose almost more than one million yuan of net profits every year. The "sea toll booths" in the Caribbean are a stern warning! Of course, in the case of the huge and bloated bureaucracy of the Kingdom of France, it will be two years before they figure out what is really going on in the Caribbean and react.

However, for the East Coast, even if they snatch more money from the Caribbean, they will not make up for the loss of a large market. Because this is not only a question of money, but also a matter of cultivating an industrial atmosphere and building an industrial system. Snatch back more money from the outside world. Most of the people are not involved in this process, and there is no benefit to industrial development. It may have a certain stimulating effect on enterprises that depend on infrastructure (railways, roads, river transportation) for their livelihoods. After all, the government has the money to continue to build infrastructure, and their products can continue to sell, but it is of no help to the export manufacturing industry, which occupies the main industrial body on the east coast.

Without the market, there will be no profits, and without profits, there will be no profits: the training of industrial workers, the application of new technologies, the research and development of new products, and so on, will be gone, and the industrial system will be like a stagnant water that has lost its source, unable to self-renew, and unable to self-upgrade. Although the government can allocate huge industrial subsidies to sustain itself, this is not a long-term solution after all, and can only be used as a temporary emergency. Therefore, if the domestic industrial system on the East Coast is to continue to develop, it is extremely necessary to find a new market.

But that's easier said than done, and it takes time! The consequence of the delay was that in the second half of 1650, there might be a structural overproduction in the east coast, and the export industry, especially the textile industry, would be severely impacted, and the profits of the two backbone enterprises, the Dayuheji Qì Textile Factory (the East Coast Company held 60% of the shares) and the Ping An Weaving Factory, would drop sharply or even lose money.

Whenever he thinks of this problem, Xu Xin, a member of the Central Executive Committee who has taken office as a new official and is in charge of domestic industry and commerce, is anxious. Today is June 3rd, the third day after the official closing of the third Qingdao Autumn Trade Fair, Xu Xin specially found an old friend who inquired about the news for the people on the east coast, the Dutch captain Kouat, to inquire about the situation, after all, he is also one of the merchants, and he knows the thoughts of the businessmen best.

"Not very optimistic." Captain Coot, though he was no longer young, was still very loud, and he could only be heard in French: "I have taken the opportunity to inquire about Mr. Hill and Mr. Hampton from New England, and Mr. Flores from France, and Mr. Adrian from the South Netherlands, and they have all bought much lower than in previous years. Although the dyed cloth and calico produced on the east coast still sell well, after all, it is a good cloth with bright colors and is not easy to fade, but the price is too expensive, and only some wealthy people will buy this high-end goods. But you know, the bulk of the profits often come from the lowest-end goods, the textiles of the East Coast, and the outlook looks bad for the time being. ”

"Now it seems that there are only a few products that continue to be popular in Europe, such as steel bars, medicines, and bean cakes. You used to sell good metal tools, farm implements, dyed leather goods, munitions, grain, and refined flour, but now they are not selling as well as they should, hindered by high tariffs. The West India Company has made a detailed investigation into this, especially the sale of grain, metal tools, farm implements, and munitions, and as the large-scale wars in the Old Continent gradually subside, and the order of production gradually restores, these few goods of yours are becoming more and more unsellable. You should notice that the grain exports of the Luocha commodity trading market fell sharply by at least 20% last year, and this year's sales have fallen a lot compared with the same period last year, and it looks like it will continue to fall next year. Therefore, you should not have much chance in the grain market, so forget about this business in the future. ”

"Also, your influence in the Old World is too weak. Seriously, few people know about you, and few people want to know about you, and you don't have many powerful commodity agents, so no one wants to promote your products. Your reputation is also poor, and the news of the persecution of Catholics in the New World is now well known, and the large number of Polish slaves you have bought from the Tatars and Cossacks further exacerbates the bad impression of Christendom towards you. Actually, to be honest, I am also very puzzled and disgusted by your wanton purchase of Polish prisoners of war and innocent civilians. After all, they are the Lord's people, after all, they are civilized people, and you should not humiliate them in this way. This is my advice as a friend, and I wouldn't say that in front of others. Your policies have been deviated and urgently need to be corrected, otherwise you may lose more and more of the Old World market. You have to figure out where your market is now, and you shouldn't offend Christchurch so much. ”

Listening to Captain Kuat's merciless criticism, Xu Xin's face became more and more ugly. In fact, if you think about it carefully, there are really a lot of people who have been offended by the East Coast over the years, such as the Spaniards, the Dutch East India Company (of course, the two sides have long since restored normal relations), the British East India Company, the Kingdom of Poland and Lithuania (because of the purchase of prisoners of war and slave girls), the Republic of Venesia (because of the sale of battleships to the Ottoman Empire and commercial competition), and now they have a holiday with the French (although the French did not specifically target the East Coast people at all), which really offended people.

But in this fucked-up 17th century, there really wasn't anything that developed without offending people. If you want to export goods, you will inevitably touch the interests of vested interests; If you want to develop a market and allies, you will inevitably offend the countries and forces that are hostile to it; Even your skin and your faith are original sin, and you really think that Europeans will talk to you and drink all day long because you are from the mysterious East? That's pure stupidity! People respect you only because of your strength, no other factors, the East Coast people won Spain, then they have a little status, but they still suffer from the deep-rooted discrimination of the old countries, which is the current mainstream political ideology in Europe.

How difficult it is to develop! Xu Nobunaga sighed, feeling that in order to break the current predicament and sweep away the decline of the domestic export manufacturing industry, it is still necessary to expand new markets. For example, the Greater Spanish market, which is currently increasing its market share rapidly on the east coast, the Moscow market, which is trying to develop, and the Persian Kingdom market, which is a long-term plan. Even the African market can be considered, those blacks are not all fools with a tendon, they will also trade with outsiders, and they will also produce some primary agricultural and mineral products, if they are operated well, it may not be impossible to digest some excess capacity for domestic industry.

In short, go for it! Xu Xin secretly reassured himself that now that the country was in difficulty, and that the East Coast Republic had been developing for almost twenty years, the Europeans, especially the Spaniards and Portuguese, would not let the East Coast continue to develop so unlimitedly. In the future, the situation facing the East Coast will be more complicated, so it is inevitable to make some precautionary adjustments to the domestic industry and the foreign market. However, before that, Xu Xin planned to go to Xingnan Port in the South Cone first, to alleviate the dilemma of foreign trade on the east coast, and the business of the Southern Railway Company was an extremely important part of it. (To be continued......)