Chapter 809: It's better to wait and see
Italy's declaration of war on Austria was very heartening to Yi Zhi's contentment, but after calming down and pondering it carefully, he felt that his expectations for this war were too high, for the simple reason that he had little impression of the Austro-Prussian war, which was enough to show that this could not be a large-scale war in which all European countries were involved.
After careful consideration, Yi Zhizu immediately ordered: "Send a telegram at once, and let them inquire in detail about Prussia's diplomatic activities, especially those with Britain and France." ”
Because he understood Yi Zhi's plan to take advantage of the war in Europe to expand in the northwest, Zhao Liewen was also quite excited about Italy's participation in the war, but he only listened to the investigation of Prussia's diplomatic activities, but did not give the Northwest Army a telegram order, he couldn't help but be a little puzzled, and Cao Gensheng, who was waiting for the telegram to leave, asked: "The big treasurer judged that Britain and France would not be involved in the Austro-Prussian war?" ”
"Probably not." Yi Zhi said with a full jaw: "Italy has entered the war, but France has not moved, it is very likely that Prussia has stabilized France, if France does not participate in the war, England will have no possibility of entering the war." ”
Hearing this, Zhao Liewen said tentatively: "If Britain and France do not participate in the war, will the northwest send troops?" ”
Groaning slightly, Yi Zhizhi said: "The continuous expansion of the northwest of the Qing Dynasty will inevitably touch the nerves of Britain and France, especially England, the Persian Gulf is the sphere of influence of England, and England also covets the Persian Empire.
If a major war does not break out in Europe, Britain and France will not have time to withdraw, and they will certainly not sit idly by and watch the Qing Dynasty's continued expansion in the northwest and thus endanger Britain's interests in South and West Asia.
In the current situation, the Qing Dynasty should try to avoid a large-scale conflict with Britain and France, especially a war, if a large-scale war breaks out in Persia and Ottoman Turkey, even if we can win the war in the end, we will inevitably lose our vitality and cheapen Russia in vain!
Therefore, let's not act rashly, it is advisable to wait and see, if the scale of the Austro-Prussian war is not further expanded, even if Britain and France do not participate in the war, we can wait for the opportunity to move, on the contrary, we will continue to wait, we must calm down! ”
The Prussian-Austro-Prussian War was indeed planned for a long time, and before the Prussian-Danish War ended, Bismarck, known as the "iron-blooded prime minister", had already begun to plan a war against Austria, and in order to isolate Austria, Bismarck began frequent diplomatic activities.
According to the intelligence fed back from Britain, France, Russia, Italy, and other countries, after the end of the Prussian-Danish War, Bismarck actively carried out a series of diplomatic activities to start a war, expressed goodwill to Britain, and established a customs union.
Preaching 'traditional friendship' to Russia – Prussia and Russia were allies because they were both involved in the "anti-French alliance" against Napoleon I, and when Russia suppressed the Polish uprising, Prussia also thundered and sent troops to support it.
Russia, which was already full of internal contradictions, was busy quelling the onset of the reform of serfdom, and had a conflict of interest with Austria, so it was natural to sit on the sidelines.
Bismarck met with Napoleon III three times in succession with France, which was most likely to intervene with troops, in exchange for France's acquiescence in acknowledging France's expansion of its borders in the 'French-speaking regions' of Belgium, Luxembourg and the Left Bank of the Rhine.
Finally, considering Austria's military strength, in order to ensure that nothing goes wrong, Bismarck also allied with Italy and sent troops to attack Austria together!
As a result of this series of successful diplomatic activities, Austria was completely isolated, and the Austro-Prussian War, with the exception of Italy, was silenced by the European powers such as Britain, France, and Russia!
"The Prime Minister of Prussia is not only iron-blooded, but also good at diplomacy, and Prussia's diplomacy since the Prussian-Danish War for more than a year can be called a classic." Zhao Liewen put down the information in his hand and said with emotion: "Although the war has just begun, there is no doubt that Prussia will win in the end. ”
Yi Zhi's head of the jaw agreed: "Diplomacy plays a pivotal role in the war, the American Civil War, both the North and the South actively carried out diplomacy in European countries to win support, and the defeat of Russia in the Crimean War can also be said to be a defeat in diplomacy, ending miserably.
Our country's thousands of years of history, although it is also divided and combined, but most of the time is in a state of unification or a state of confrontation between the north and the south, in recent hundreds of years is a situation of great unification, the importance of diplomacy is not well understood, Prussia's diplomacy in the Austro-Prussian War can be used as a model for research, to improve the court members of the understanding of the importance of diplomacy. ”
After a pause, he continued: "Judging from the present situation, Austria is isolated, and its military strength is difficult to compete with Prussia, let alone the alliance of Prussia and Italy, if there are no other accidents in this battle, it can be said that Austria's defeat is certain, the difference is only in the length of resistance. ”
Zhao Liewen said: "The Civil War lasted for four years, and there was no shortage of protracted wars in European countries, such as the Seven Years' War, the Thirty Na War, and the Hundred Years War. ”
"Judging from the analysis of the military strength and war potential of both Prussia and Austria, it is unlikely that it will be protracted." Yi Zhizu said slowly: "Moreover, Prussia and Italy must also send troops in the hope of a quick victory, if there is no intervention from other countries, this war may not last too long."
I think Prussia should be very aware of this, once the war is protracted, Prussia will inevitably be greatly damaged, it will be a cheap France, this kind of thing of making a wedding dress for others, with Bismarck's shrewdness, will not do.
In addition, Prussia and Austria both belonged to the German Confederation, and the purpose of this war was only to fight for the leadership of Germany, not necessarily to fight to the death, once the winner was decided, the war would end. ”
Before the words fell, Lin Meilian reported at the door: "The big shopkeeper, Yan Yangtian is asking to see you outside." ”
"Let him in." Yi Zhishu commanded casually.
Yan Yangtian hurried from Dinghai, the outbreak of the Austro-Prussian War, Yi Zhizhi and ordered him to rush to Shanghai, he can be said to be full of joy, estimating that it is very likely that the navy has a big military operation, with his guess, most likely is to go to the Persian Gulf with the fleet, in order to respond to the expansion of the Northwest Army in the northwest, into the room, he neatly saluted a military salute, and said loudly: "Student Yan Yangtian has seen the principal." ”
Yi Zhishu smiled and stretched out his hand to give up his seat, and then said: "When the Austro-Prussian War broke out, how much does the navy know about Prussia's military strength?" ”
"Back to the principal." Yan Yangtian said loudly: "Prussia has 370,000 standing field troops, equipped with the best rear-loading rifled guns and metal bullets in Europe, and also has nearly 1,000 field artillery. The Austrian standing field army is 300,000, and the equipment is still Mini guns, and the difference is ....... ”
Yi Zhizu got up and took out a copy of the document on the desk and handed it to him: "This is the latest Prussian military intelligence, poor students are subject to universal compulsory military service, and young people of school age will serve in the reserve army for 11 years after serving in the standing army for 8 years, what does this mean?"
This means that Prussia has the most advanced mobilization system in the world, which can complete the war mobilization in only three weeks, and rapidly triple the number of troops.
In addition, the Prussian staff system was also a major innovation, the Prussian staff was established in 1806 and was responsible for the study of all aspects of the war, the formulation of troop mobility plans and campaign implementation plans, and the preparation of operational and mobilization plans. The first Chief of the General Staff, Baron Carl von Mifflin, took office in 1821, marking the formal establishment of the General Staff.
The staff of our Yuanqi New Army is completely modeled after the Prussian staff system, and it has not yet learned it properly, so this time we specially summoned you here to prepare for the General Staff, and you will be the first chief of the General Staff. ”
Yan Yangtian hurriedly stood up and saluted, "The student obeys!" ”
"The current Chief of the Prussian General Staff, Moltke, famously said - calculate first, then take risks!" Yi Zhishu continued: "This sentence is very reasonable, today's war is a science that requires overall planning, and the General Staff, as the brain of the army, needs to carry out accurate overall planning for every war, every campaign and logistics supply.
Candidates for the General Staff must be strictly selected, and they must be officers who have graduated from a university, are loyal and reliable, and have served in the army for more than five years. ”
"The students obeyed." Yan Yangtian said loudly, the establishment of the General Staff is not a difficult matter for the Yuanqi New Army, after all, the Nanyang Navy, the Marine Corps, and the Northwest Army have their own staff departments, and the staff of the General Staff can be quickly set up by transferring people from below.
The course of the Austro-Prussian war once again confirmed Yi Zhi's judgment, and on 3 July, the two sides fought a decisive battle in the village of Sadowa near Koenig Gretz, at the confluence of the Elbe and Oder rivers. Both sides committed 500,000 troops, setting a new scale for the European campaign.
After only eight hours of fierce fighting, Prussia quickly won this decisive battle with a huge advantage in firepower - the Austrians suffered 44,000 casualties and prisoners, and the Prussian army lost only about 10,000.
The Battle of Sadois opened the door to Vienna, the capital of Austria, and the Austrian army was no longer able to stop the advance of the Prussians, but when the Prussian army approached Vienna, Prussia accepted the mediation of France, and on August 23, the Prussian and Austrian sides formally signed the Treaty of Prague.
The Austro-Prussian war ended after only seven weeks.
After reading the terms of the "Prague Peace Treaty", Zhao Liewen couldn't help frowning, according to the terms of the peace treaty, the German Confederation was dissolved; Austria was excluded from German affairs, and Prussia annexed Hanover, Schleswig-Holstein, and other places occupied in the war, and gained the right to establish a North German Confederation north of the Main line.
Glancing at Yi Zhicontent, he couldn't help but say: "Big treasurer, it seems very abnormal for Prussia to launch a war of no small scale, and all it got was a small amount of land and a negligible reparation. ”
"You've overlooked the most important thing." Yi Zhizu said slowly: "The establishment of the North German Confederation is the result that Bismarck wants most, this is an indispensable step of German unification, and it will not take a few years for Germany to complete the unification, but before the establishment of the German Empire, Prussia must win the war against France." ”
Yan Yangtian, chief of the General Staff, said in surprise: "Will the Franco-Prussian War break out?" ”
"Definitely!" Yi Zhizhi said: "At this point, Europe can no longer prevent the unification of Germany, and the Franco-Prussian War is a matter of three or five years. After a pause, he instructed: "The General Staff should sum up the gains and losses of both sides in the Austro-Prussian war and form a precedent, and the wars of all countries in the world and the wars of Yuanqi must be summarized in detail, and the gains and losses must be analyzed as a reference." ”
It was not only Shanghai that paid attention to the Austro-Prussian War, but also the war that broke out in Europe, for the simple reason that Yuan Qi shared the intelligence of the Austro-Prussian War, and emphasized that Prussia's diplomacy in this war was a major highlight.
Gong Wang Yixun was not only concerned with diplomacy, he knew very well that Prussia's quick victory in this war was not far from the completion of German reunification, and as early as a few years ago, Yi Zhifu pointed out to him that the completed reunification of Germany would become a great power in Europe.
He believes that even in the whole of Europe, no one can have such amazing insight as Yi Zhicontent, it is obvious that if anyone could foresee that Prussia would become a new European power after completing the unification of Germany, whether it was England or France, it would have sent troops to intervene a long time ago, not to mention the Austro-Prussian War, that is, the Prussian-Danish War, Prussia would not have won so easily!
What he is now thinking about is whether the Qing Dynasty should start to strengthen its ties with the North German Confederation from now on, and this is a good time to send charcoal in the snow! Making friends with a future European power in advance naturally has infinite benefits for the Qing Dynasty.
Shanghai, Changle Book House.
Cao Gensheng walked into the room quickly and reported: "The chief treasurer, King Jingshi Gong has called, asking for instructions on whether it is necessary to send a congratulatory telegram to the North German Confederation and send an ambassador. ”
It seems that the victory of the Austro-Prussian War made Yixun believe his judgment, so he was in a hurry to show favor to Prussia, and only after a little muttering did he say: "Call back and establish diplomatic relations with future powers, this is an important step in the diplomacy of the Qing Dynasty, but it must be remembered that between countries, interests are paramount, historical origins, traditional friendship and even friendship coagulated by blood are not worth the word interests." ”
Hearing this, Zhao Liewen raised his eyebrows, faintly feeling that his words seemed to be deliberately aimed at Prussia, Yi Zhishu paused and then ordered: "Tell the Ministry of Commerce to strengthen commercial and trade cooperation with the North German Confederation, especially in the fields of metallurgy, shipbuilding, and railway construction, and furthermore, the General Staff can also consider sending the officer corps to the North German Confederation for military exchanges." ”