Just after the Lantern Festival, a piece of news quickly spread all over the country - the order contract signed by Yuanqi and cotton farmers in various provinces expired, and Yuanqi no longer renewed the contract, no longer subsidized cotton planting, and no longer purchased cotton in a unified manner.

The news spread, the provincial merchants, especially the cotton merchants, were in an uproar, and there were many discussions, the American War has not yet ended, and the price of cotton in Europe is still high.

Many powerful and active businessmen have followed Yuanqi's example, signed purchase contracts with cotton farmers in various provinces, and paid money in advance to encourage cotton farmers to plant cotton, after all, Yuanqi's cotton trade in Europe in recent years is really eye-catching, but they don't even have the opportunity to intervene in the soup.

Now that Yuan Qi finally put his hand down, where can they still hold on, not to mention the windfall profits of three or five times like Yuan Qi, as long as they can double it, they will be content.

In recent years, the cotton business has been too hot, and there are especially many businessmen who pay attention to cotton.

Of course, there is no lack of caution, Jue's Yuanqi is in a strange position to deal with the cotton trade, and he is not in a hurry to act, but to inquire around for news.

Early this morning, Yan Shikuan rushed to Zhennan Wangfu, he has a wide range of contacts, and there are contacts between the three religions and the nine streams, so naturally there are many businessmen who have a relationship with him to inquire here, who doesn't know the relationship between Yan Shikuan and Yi Zhixin? Unable to get in the way, he deliberately came to probe the tone.

After entering the study, after briefly reporting the recent situation, he said tentatively: "The American Civil War has not yet ended, and the price of cotton in Europe is also at a high level, how can the big shopkeeper give up cotton ...... for no reason?" ”

Yuan Qi has made some money in the cotton trade in recent years, and Yi Zhishu is also quite concerned about the substantial reduction of cotton planting area, after all, it was Yuan Qi who encouraged the promotion and expansion of cotton planting, and he has the responsibility and obligation to let the cotton farmers avoid the risks caused by the cotton plummet.

Provincial businessmen follow Yuanqi and cotton farmers to sign a purchase contract, he is naturally clear, however, he did not stop it, he has no way to stop it, even he himself is not sure that this year's cotton market will fall sharply, Yuanqi gave up cotton trade, just to avoid risks to the greatest extent.

Yan Shikuan opened his mouth, he knew that this was specially to test his tone, there should be many cautious businessmen who were still on the sidelines, and groaned slightly, before he said: "This year's cotton trade is risky, Yuan Qi has made enough money in the past few years, there is no need to take risks." ”

Risky? Yan Shikuan said tentatively: "What does the big shopkeeper mean, the Civil War will end this year?" ”

"It's been four years of fighting, the Southern Union is on the verge of collapse, and the end of the war shouldn't be too far away." Yi Zhishu said slowly: "Jujube sprouts to grow cotton, the planting season of cotton is generally around the valley rain, if the war ends before that, it will inevitably cause a huge blow to the price of cotton, if it is after this," it will drag on until summer and autumn, then the price of cotton in Europe may be passable. ”

After hesitating, Yan Shikuan said: "Even if the war ends early, it will take time to recover after the war, and it is impossible for the southern United States to resume cotton cultivation quickly as soon as the war ends." ”

"Good analysis." Yi Zhizu chuckled: "It seems that your talents are limited, the Ministry of Commerce is short of people, or you go to the Ministry of Commerce to assist Xie Xiuyuan." ”

"It's not that I don't know that the idea is capable of the big shopkeeper, these are all from others." Yan Shikuan hurriedly waved his hand, he was having a good time now, but he didn't want to go to the Ministry of Commerce.

"It does take time to recover after the war, but the price of commodities is determined by supply and demand." Yi Zhishu said slowly: "The end of the war, the sharp drop in demand, and the reduction in production of textile mills will directly affect the price of cotton, so it is best for them not to touch cotton, and the international cotton trade is not something they can touch now." ”

"The great treasurer is teaching." Yan Shikuan nodded again and again, "All of them are blind, they don't know anything about the situation in Europe, and they still want to get involved in the international cotton trade." ”

Yi Zhishu said slowly: "Now that the price of cotton remains high, many people are lucky, try to persuade them, remind them that there are extremely high risks in the current cotton trade. ”

"I understand below." Yan Shikuan stood up as he spoke, he knew that the other party was very busy and had no time to grind his teeth with him.

"By the way, go and call Xie Xiuyuan." Yi Zhizhi commanded, when he retired, he took out the jade pipe and lit a cigarette, before talking, he faintly flashed a thought, during the American Civil War, although the price of cotton was high, but the textile industry in England was extremely prosperous, which can be reflected from the cotton trade, so the end of the war, will it be a heavy blow to the textile industry in England? The textile industry can now be said to be the pillar industry ....... England.

Economic crisis! The thought that flashed through him was an economic crisis! When was the last time an economic crisis broke out? In 1857, eight or nine years have passed now, and it is said that it is also the time for an economic crisis, and perhaps the end of the Civil War is the trigger for the economic crisis!

Thinking of this, he got up and walked to the door, and was about to order someone to call Zhao Liewen over, but when he raised his eyes, he happened to see Zhao Liewen pacing into the courtyard gate without hurrying, and when he came out, Lin Meilian hurriedly greeted him, "What do you want from the big shopkeeper?" ”

Yi Zhishu nodded, beckoned to Zhao Liewen, and when he hurried to him, he ordered: "I need the economic crisis situation that has broken out in England over the years. In addition, you should also go to the Intelligence Bureau to sort out and send relevant information on finance, companies, railways, metallurgy, textiles, shipbuilding, and so on since the economic crisis of 1857 in Britain, France, the United States, and Russia. ”

Is it possible that another economic crisis will break out? Zhao Liewen's heart sank, and he hurriedly bowed his head and said: "Relatively speaking, the United States has the most complete information, followed by England, and there are not many information from France and Russia....... ”

Yuan Qi's overseas intelligence collection is most important to England and the United States, these two countries are the largest foreign trade countries in the Qing Dynasty, and England is also the world economic center, the most developed industry, and the strongest military strength, so naturally it is particularly focused, Yi Zhizhi nodded and turned into the room.

If the economic crisis can be accurately judged in advance, Yuanqi will be able to avoid risks to the greatest extent, which is extremely important to the economy and military of the Qing Dynasty.

Not long after, Xie Xiuyuan hurried over, and after bowing his hand, he said, "What do you have to say about the big shopkeeper?" ”

"Yuanqi gave up the cotton trade, and the merchants in the cotton-producing provinces followed Yuanqi's practice and signed contracts with cotton farmers to encourage cotton farmers to plant cotton because they were profitable." Yi Zhizhi said without hurry: "There is a great risk in the international cotton trade, and the domestic textile industry can not digest so much cotton, this matter, we must order the following, try our best to discourage cotton farmers from planting cotton, and we must resolutely implement the substantial reduction in the scale of cotton planting, otherwise it will cause great harm." ”

Xie Xiuyuan also heard about this, and even said: "The big shopkeeper, those businessmen are lucky, why should we bother, if the price of cotton remains high this year, we will inevitably be embarrassed ........" ”

"That's why I said I would do my best." Yi Zhizhi said: "Once the price of cotton plummets or even plummets, cotton cannot be sold, and it is not only those businessmen who are unlucky, but also cotton farmers." After a pause, he continued: "Through the cotton merchants we are familiar with, try to control the scale of cotton planting ........ ”

Xie Xiuyuan said: "Can the big shopkeeper appeal in the newspaper?" The effect could be better. ”

Appeal in the newspapers? Yi Zhizu rolled his eyes, "Can it be useful to appeal in the newspaper?" How many cotton farmers are literate? After a slight groan, he said in a deep voice: "Greatly reduce the cotton order price, cancel all subsidies, so that cotton farmers feel that cotton planting is unprofitable, for cotton fields to change to grain, subsidies, sign grain order contracts, increase the grain purchase price of one to two percent!" ”

This is rather losing money than reducing the scale of cotton planting, Xie Xiuyuan realized the seriousness of the matter, and hurriedly said: "My subordinates will arrange it." ”

In the afternoon, Zhao Liewen walked into the study with a sorted document, and said while presenting it to Yi Zhicontent: "The big shopkeeper predicts that the economic crisis will break out again in England?" ”

"Economic crises are cyclical." Yi Zhizu said slowly: "There is no doubt that the economic crisis will continue to break out in England, the problem is the time of the economic crisis, if it can be accurately predicted, this is of great significance to Yuanqi and the Qing Dynasty, which can minimize losses or even avoid losses." ”

Zhao Liewen said worriedly: "Will an economic crisis break out in the Qing Dynasty?" ”

"Yes!" Yi Zhizhi said without thinking: "When the industry develops to a certain scale, it is inevitable that there will be an economic crisis, although we have developed rapidly in recent years, but compared to the entire Qing Dynasty, the scale is still too small, and it is not qualified to break out of the economic crisis."

However, our industry already has a certain foundation, and it will be affected by the large-scale economic crisis in the West to a certain extent, and if we can accurately predict and judge, we can reduce or even avoid the impact of the Western economic crisis.

As the saying goes, blessings and misfortunes lurk, and misfortunes and blessings rely on. Seon lost his horse, but he didn't know if it was a blessing. The large-scale economic crisis in Western countries is not only bad for us, but also beneficial, in fact, since the establishment of Yuanqi, the West has broken out several economic crises, Yuanqi has benefited a lot from it, the most typical is the domestic railway construction!

Moreover, every large-scale economic crisis is followed by a new technological revolution and an industrial revolution. If a large-scale economic crisis breaks out in Western countries this time, it will also mean the beginning of the electric age, which is an extremely rare opportunity for our Qing Dynasty! ”

After speaking, he stretched out his hand and pointed to the chair, and then looked down at the information, because of the importance of Yi Zhi, Yuan Qi attaches great importance to the collection of intelligence, whether it is at home or abroad, it has now developed a huge intelligence network, and a large amount of information is gathered in Zhennan Wangfu every year.

The information compiled by Zhao Liewen is quite detailed, and after a long time, Yi Zhizhi was content to read it, and after a long period of silence, he said: "Send a report to Hu Xueyan in London, pay close attention to the stock market of several major banks, railway companies, and textile factories in England, and report any abnormal situations in time." ”

Zhao Liewen hurriedly picked up his pen and quickly wrote down the telegram, and then said: "The scale of railway construction in England began to shrink significantly since last year, and the shipbuilding industry began to decline last year, but the textile industry is a prosperous ....... ”

"As soon as the Civil War ended, the English textile industry was hit worse than the railroad!" Yi Zhizhi said: "Compared with the railway, shipbuilding, textile industry, finance is the most important, in recent years, England has imported a large amount of cotton from China and India, and the foreign trade between Britain and India has formed a huge deficit, resulting in a serious outflow of gold and silver.

In addition, because of the support for the Southern Alliance, it will also cause huge losses to the financial power of England, and Yuan Qi has made a lot of money in the London financial market, and on the whole, I expect that there may be turmoil in the financial sector of England! ”

Zhao Liewen smiled when he heard this, "The turmoil in the financial industry in England is a rare good thing for us, at least we don't have to worry about them coming to Guangzhou and Shanghai to stir up trouble ........" ”

"Not necessarily." Yi Zhizhi said: "As the saying goes, rabbits bite when they are in a hurry, the more times like this, the more cautious we must be, and we have to beware of them taking risks!" As he spoke, he waved his hand, "Hurry up and send the telegram." ”

On April 3, 1865, the Confederate Army captured Richmond, the capital of the Confederate Army, and on April 9, General Robert Lee, commander-in-chief of the Confederate Army, led 30,000 troops to surrender to the Confederate Army, and the Civil War ended with the victory of the North, and the United States was restored.

Cao Gensheng and Xie Xiuyuan pinched the telegram and walked quickly into the study, Cao Gensheng said in a calm tone: "Big shopkeeper, the war is over!" The Southern Union has surrendered! As he spoke, he bowed down and handed over the telegram.

Xie Xiuyuan was excited, "The big shopkeeper is really clever, as soon as the news spread, the price of European cotton fell in response, and it has now fallen to twenty-eight cents, while the price of gold in New York does not fluctuate much, it is still one hundred and thirty-two." ”

After reading the telegram, Yi Zhixiang had enough corners of his mouth and showed a smile, this war finally did not deviate from the track of history, and he groaned slightly, and then he said: "Pass my order, all merchant ships loaded with cotton in the port are all seized and not allowed to leave the port, and the cotton will be recovered on the spot at the price of twelve cents!" ”

Xie Xiuyuan was stunned when he heard this, "Big shopkeeper, I'm afraid this will arouse public anger!" At this price, they are unlikely to accept it! ”

"Tell them." Yi Zhizhi said slowly: "If the price of European cotton is higher than twelve cents after two months, all the price difference, Yuan Qi will compensate according to the price, if it is lower than this price, Yuan Qi will not need them to recover the difference, it can be regarded as saving them freight." ”