Shanghai, Zhennan Wangfu, Changle Book House.

The large map on the wall of the study has been replaced with a map of Europe, and the two major battlefields of the Danube and the Caucasus are marked with red and blue pencils on the offensive and defensive routes of the Russian army and the Turkish army, Yi Zhengxing pointed at Plevin with a small wooden pole, "The Russian army has carried out three strong attacks on Plevin, and the losses have been heavy, but with the arrival of follow-up reinforcements, Plevin has now been encircled, but the Russian army's battle plan for a quick battle has also failed......." ”

Yi Zhixiang glanced at him, "Xingzhi doesn't seem to be optimistic about Russia?" ”

After a slight sigh, Yi Zhengxing said: "The Russian army occupies the advantage of troops, and is stronger than the Turkish army in terms of military organization, troop training, quality of command personnel and troop morale, but it is slightly inferior in the quality of weapons and equipment, and the Turkish army's weapons are all from Britain, Germany and the United States. ”

Yi Zhixiang has no impression of this Russian-Turkish war, but he knows that in all previous Russian-Turkish wars, Turkey has only won the only victory, which is the Crimean War, and he has no impression of this war, which is enough to show that Britain, France and other countries have not carried out armed intervention, and the scale of the war has not expanded.

After thinking for a while, he spoke: "In terms of the military strength of the two countries, Russia has a very obvious advantage in terms of military strength, even if the weapons are slightly inferior, the gap is not very obvious.

In the Balkans, Turkey is completely isolated, with Romania, Serbia, and Montenegro all sending troops to help Russia, and even if the Russian army's plans for a quick victory are shattered, it will be very difficult for Turkey to win this war. ”

Yi Zhengxing hesitated: "Will Britain and France sit back and watch Turkey lose?" ”

"The heart is more than enough, but the strength is insufficient." Yi Zhizu said slowly: "France has just experienced the defeat of the Franco-Prussian War and suffered a large-scale economic crisis, which is already a false appearance. Russia had already used diplomatic means to gain the support of Germany and keep Austria neutral before it sent its troops to Turkey. If Britain were to send troops to Turkey alone, it would very likely be suppressed by Russia and Germany. ”

Before the words fell, Zhao Liewen walked in quickly with a telegram, "Big shopkeeper, call from London——。 ”

The telegram was sent from London by Guo Songtao, the minister to the United Kingdom, and the content was very concise, and the Ottoman Turkish minister to the United Kingdom, Mora Shot, paid a special visit to the house, hoping that the two countries would be able to establish normal diplomatic relations.

Seeing it, Yi Zhizhi raised his head, and Zhao Liewen said with a smile: "Turkey is not a drunkard, this is a test of whether our country will take advantage of the fire to invade ...... from the southeast." ”

Yi Zhixiang smiled and said: "Once the two countries establish normal diplomatic relations, Turkey will also implore our country to mediate, after all, our country and Russia are allies, and in this war, our country has not exported weapons to Russia, and the Makqin machine gun and rear-loading rapid-fire cannon are land weapons." ”

As he spoke, he stretched out his hand, "Let's sit down, let's talk about whether to establish diplomatic relations with Turkey?" ”

After taking his seat, Zhao Liewen said straightforwardly: "The establishment of diplomatic relations with Turkey is conducive to consolidating the Persian Gulf, and furthermore, it is necessary to curb Russia's expansion into Asia." ”

Yi Zhengxing pondered and said: "Throughout this war, the Turkish army is tenacious and dares to fight, and it is not much inferior to Russia. If China has no intention of getting involved in Turkey, the establishment of diplomatic relations with Turkey will have more advantages than disadvantages, which will not only curb the expansion of European powers into Asia, but also maintain the existing pattern in Asia, mediate in the middle, and improve China's international status. ”

Glancing at the two of them, Yi Zhizhi said slowly: "In the battle of Plevin, the Turkish army did fight extremely bravely and tenaciously, and the loss was that it was isolated and insufficient troops, and the establishment of diplomatic relations or even an alliance with it was indeed conducive to consolidating the Persian Gulf, maintaining the existing pattern in Asia, and containing the expansion of Russia or Germany into Asia."

However, the Balkans have always been the powder keg of Europe, and if we intervene, it is very likely to affect the future pattern of Europe and the outbreak of a major war in Europe. ”

Yi Zhengxing was stunned when he heard this, "Why do you say that the Balkans are the powder keg of Europe?" ”

"That's a long story." Yi Zhishu got up and walked to the map and pointed to the Balkan Peninsula, and explained: "The Balkans are located at the junction of the three major plates of Asia, Europe and Africa, bordering the European continent in the north, the Black Sea in the east, Turkey across the Aegean Sea in the south, and the Adriatic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea in the west.

Not to mention the geographical location, it is also close to the important shipping routes of the Mediterranean, holding the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, and it is definitely a world-class battleground!

The Balkan Peninsula is crisscrossed by mountains, the whole peninsula is divided by mountains and fragmented, the typical mountains are more and less land, because of the underdevelopment of agriculture, this region has never formed a strong unified local power in history, but because of its important geographical location, it has become the object of conquest of the surrounding strong civilizations.

The Balkans, which had long been under the rule of the Roman, Byzantine and Ottoman Empires, were now in decline, making the Balkans a natural target for the European powers. And that's just one of them. ”

After a pause, he continued: "Second, there are many ethnic groups such as Yugoslavs, Greeks, Turks, and Albanians in the Balkan Peninsula.

The root cause of this Russo-Turkish war was the outbreak of large-scale uprisings in Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Bulgaria, which was in fact a national liberation movement, and all ethnic groups wanted independence from Turkish rule.

There is also the issue of religion, because the Balkans have long been ruled by many foreign forces such as the Roman Empire, the Byzantine Empire, and the Ottoman Turkish Empire, so the residents mostly believe in Christianity, Orthodox Christianity and Christianity, and religious contradictions are very prominent.

The land where soldiers must fight, their own national and religious contradictions are complex, and none of the European powers are willing to let the Balkans fall into the hands of other countries, and they have intervened in the process, so that the Balkans can't be chaotic! ”

Speaking of this, he pointed lightly on the map, "This is the root cause of the chaos in Europe, this war can be said to have laid the groundwork for the outbreak of a big war in Europe, we have no need to intervene, even if it is covert support and assistance."

As for the Persian Gulf, once normal diplomatic relations with Turkey are established, it will be unjustifiable for us to continue to expand in the Persian Gulf. Turkey is strategically located between Asia and Europe, and controls the straits between the Black Sea and the Aegean Sea. ”