In May, the Battle of Chancellorsville broke out between the North and the South of the United States, which still ended in the defeat of the Northern Army, with the Northern Army losing more than 20,000 troops, while the Southern Army lost only about 10,000 troops.

All eyes of the world have focused on the civil war in the United States, two years after the outbreak of the war, the performance of the Northern Union has been really unsatisfactory, but the Southern Union has become more and more courageous in the extremely unfavorable situation, and the European powers have to re-examine the war and have to carefully consider whether to recognize the independence of the South.

After all, judging from the current war situation, the South has always occupied an advantage, if the South is completely victorious, and then recognize the independence of the South, it will obviously affect the relationship with the South in the future, England or France support the South, after all, it is to weaken the United States, and it is also hoped that the South will become their raw material supplier.

Everyone understands that the icing on the cake is far less than the charcoal in the snow, and it is precisely in this regard that the French Emperor Bonaparte III sent a telegram to England, "Is it time to recognize the independence of the South?" ”

British Prime Minister Palmerston's reply was, "Wait and see." ”

Palmerston was both cautious and contradictory about the recognition of the Southern Union, and Lincoln's declaration of abolition put the Northern Union at the highest moral point, and recognizing the independence of the South was tantamount to supporting the black slavery system, which violated the concept of equality and freedom that England had always preached, and the domestic opposition was bound to be great, which made him have to be cautious.

But as Prime Minister of England, he was extremely eager to weaken the United States, and to the Southern Union to win the war, because he knew very well that once the Northern Union, which represented the bourgeois forces, won the victory, the United States would inevitably become strong rapidly, and would become a fierce rival with Britain for the world market, and moreover, Britain would lose its southern cotton supply.

As long as the South can achieve a decisive victory, England will definitely not hesitate to recognize the independence of the South for its own interests.

He was more concerned about Russia than about the United States, which had a greater influence on Europe and seriously threatened the European balance of power policy that England had always pursued.

The outbreak of a large-scale uprising in Poland was a rare opportunity, and Britain took the opportunity to send a strongly worded note to Russia, but Russia did not respond at all, and continued to increase its troops in Poland.

Naturally, Britain would not have done the robbery of the Russian silver fleet, and he was not sure that the French had done it, but it was indeed possible for France, France had increased its troops in Mexico on a large scale, needed a large amount of military spending, and wanted to use the Polish uprising to weaken Russia, it was not impossible to do this kind of thing, but this matter is not easy to ask and cannot be asked, and even if it is asked, there can be no answer.

The Battle of Chancellorsville and the defeat of the Northern Union led to the continued rise in the price of gold in New York, and also caused the price of cotton in the European market to continue to fall.

Xie Xiuyuan once again doubted Yi Zhi's words, the price of gold continued to rise, but he threw away the gold in his hand, the price of cotton continued to fall, but Yuan Qi continued to expand the scale of cotton planting, and besides, the Northern Federation could really achieve the final victory?

It was not only Xie Xiuyuan who was suspicious, but also Zhao Liewen, early this morning, the two of them entered the Changle Book House with the latest gold price and cotton price, Yi Zhizu read the telegram, and put the telegram on the desk casually, he was also quite puzzled in his heart.

Originally, it was judged that this year should be a key year for the Northern Federation to turn the tide of the war and turn the defense into an offensive, and it was based on this judgment that he ordered to throw away the gold in his hand and continue to expand the scale of cotton planting.

Seeing that he was silent, Xie Xiuyuan said tentatively: "It's already May, but the big shopkeeper still firmly believes that the Northern Federation can turn the tide of the war?" ”

Zhao Liewen said cautiously: "Since the issuance of the "Emancipation Proclamation", the north has taken a series of major measures, such as the promulgation of the "Homestead Law", the arming of blacks to form a black regiment, and the implementation .......of the "Conscription Law", but it is still difficult to turn the tide of the war, and the war situation seems to be more and more favorable to the south. ”

The two of them were questioning his judgment, Yi Zhishu glanced at the two of them, to be honest, he himself had some doubts about whether history had deviated from the original trajectory, after all, the history of the Qing Dynasty had changed, but the wood was already in the boat, even if there was a deviation in history, it would be difficult to make up for it, not to mention, his previous judgment was not unreasonable!

After a slight hesitation, he slowly spoke: "A series of major measures taken by the Northern Federation are conducive to the North winning this war, don't easily doubt your judgment, isn't this only May, the Battle of Chancellorsville is only the first large-scale battle between the North and the South this year, don't worry." ”

Don't be in a hurry? Can you not be in a hurry? Xie Xiuyuan secretly slandered to himself, once the north is defeated, Yuan Qi's loss will be great, gold is nothing, after all, it is a profit, nothing more than to make less, cotton is likely to lose, the south has won again and again, cotton production is not affected by the war, and all countries in the world are expanding the scale of cotton planting, and it is strange that prices do not fall sharply!

Yi Zhishu seemed to be able to see through his thoughts, and continued: "Financial investment can never pursue the highest price, this is an iron law!" Because when the price is the highest, it is also the time when the risk is the highest!

As for cotton, although the northern army has suffered frequent defeats, the coastal blockade of the south is becoming more and more severe, even if the cotton production of the south is not affected, it is difficult to export to Europe on a large scale, and Hu Xueyan pays close attention to the supply quantity in the European cotton market, especially the amount of cotton from the south. ”

After hesitating, Xie Xiuyuan said boldly: "The art of war is cloudy, and if you don't think about winning, you should think about defeat first." If the Northern Confederacy is defeated....... ”

Yi Zhizhi smiled contentedly, "Even if the north is defeated, it is not this year's thing, the American civil war has been fought so far, the two sides are already endless, the south may have the possibility of surrender, but the north is impossible!" Moreover, even if the North is defeated, that is, more than ten states in the South are separated, and the Northern Federation will not be destroyed, it can be said that we support the Northern Federation, and we will not lose money.

As for cotton, if you put your heart in your belly, the cotton trade will not lose money for a day until the American Civil War ends. ”

Hearing this, Zhao Liewen said with a smile: "It seems that the big treasurer's confidence in the Northern Federation has not wavered. ”

It is false that he has not wavered, the Northern Federation has been defeated one after another, just like mud that can't support the wall, Yi Zhishu once doubted whether the North could win in the end, but in front of the two of them, he couldn't be discouraged, "Huifu also said that the North has taken a series of major measures one after another, and these measures have greatly enhanced the war potential of the North, but they have not had an immediate effect.

This is actually normal, even if it has huge war potential, it is impossible to immediately transform these potentials into combat effectiveness, this takes time to transform, it takes a process, don't worry, don't doubt, the final victory will definitely be the Northern Federation. ”

Hearing him say this, both of them stopped talking, this is indeed not unreasonable, as far as the war potential is concerned, the north is far greater than the south, this series of major measures is to increase the war potential of the north, if nothing else, in the final outcome, the north will indeed have a much greater chance of winning.

With a slight groan, Zhao Liewen turned his head, "Will there be a war in Europe?" The note sent by the British Foreign Secretary Russell to Russia was full of gunpowder, which was not a precursor to the armed intervention of England in Poland. ”

This is a telegram received yesterday, and the British Foreign Secretary Russell has sent a note to Russia that since Russia is not capable of governing Poland well, it has no right to continue to rule.

"It was indeed a note full of gunpowder, a declaration of war!" Yi Zhizhi said: "However, the possibility of Britain annexing Poland is very small. He smiled, "There is another situation that Huifu does not know, the contents of this note have been leaked to the French before it was handed over to Russian Foreign Minister Gorchakov. ”

Leaked to the French? What do you mean? Zhao Liewen pondered for a moment before he said: "England wants to unite with France to send troops to Poland?" ”

"It's not a coalition, it's an instigation." Yi Zhizhi said with a smile: "Napoleon III was warlike, France also regarded itself as the hegemon of the European continent, and it was Napoleon III's dream to contain Russia's expansion into Europe and weaken Russia........ ”

Xie Xiuyuan said puzzledly: "Doesn't that mean that there is a great possibility of war breaking out in Europe?" ”

"What I just said is just the wishful thinking of British Prime Minister Palmerston." Yi Zhizhi said with a smile: "Britain, France, and Spain sent troops to Mexico, and England not only sent a pitiful small number of troops, but also left as soon as it was touched, how could France be easily fooled?" Moreover, France was invading Mexico on a large scale, and if it was willing to fight on two fronts, it was not even thought that Napoleon III would be indifferent, and the interference with Poland would probably be over. ”

Napoleon III turned a blind eye to the English declaration of war note, and Russia, in order to keep Poland and the guarantee of Yuanqi's follow-up funds, increased its troops to Poland and mobilized more than 300,000 troops into Poland to suppress the rebellion, not so much to suppress the rebellion, but to Chen Bing Poland, ready for war with Britain and France.

Seeing this, England's attitude towards Poland also took a 180-degree turn. Russell openly declared: "Neither the duty of Great Britain, nor the honour and interests of Great Britain, can compel us to fight Russia for the sake of Poland." ”

The crisis of Anglo-French intervention in Poland had just passed, and the Battle of Gettysburg broke out between the north and the south of the United States.

The Confederate army invaded Pennsylvania with 80,000 troops, and the North was in a hurry again, Lincoln urgently ordered the Potomac Army to meet it, and the Northern army met with 110,000 troops, and the two sides fought fiercely at Gettysburg, the main transportation route.

Although it was a disastrous victory, this hard-won victory was of great strategic significance, and in one fell swoop reversed the situation in the North on the Eastern Front, and the Northern Virginia Army of Robert Edward Lee was basically crippled and lost its combat effectiveness, and the North thus grasped the initiative on the Eastern Front.

After receiving the telegram, Yi Zhishu breathed a sigh of relief, the Northern Army finally fought for breath this time, if he lost the battle again, not to mention Zhao Liewen and Xie Xiuyuan, he was afraid that even he would be shaken, in fact, he had always been very worried, he knew very well that as long as the Southern Army won two or three more or even one or two major battles in succession, European countries may change their neutral position and support Southern independence, if that situation really occurs, it will be a heavy blow to the Northern Federation!

In his view, this victory was too timely, and its significance was not only that the Northern Army had seized the initiative on the Eastern Front, but also greatly encouraged the morale and morale of the Northern Army, and also shocked European countries.

However, only two days later, the Northern Federation once again achieved a great victory, an unprecedented victory, after months of siege, the Northern Army finally conquered the Western Front town of Vicksburg, is a battle, the Northern Army captured more than 40,000 enemies, killed more than 10,000 enemies, but its own casualties were only 10,000, which can be called the most brilliant victory of the Northern Army since the outbreak of the civil war!

More importantly, Vicksburg was a strategic point for controlling the Mississippi River and the Western Railroad network, and was the only point connecting the parts of the Southern Union separated by the Mississippi River, and was known as the "Gibraltar of the South". When the Northern Army took control of Vicksburg, it split the Southern Alliance in two.

After reading the information about the Battle of Vicksburg, Zhao Liewen said with sincere admiration: "It's still the big shopkeeper who is thorough, Vicksburg is a unique strategic location in this battle, and this battle can be called a turning point in the Civil War!" ”

Yi Zhifen glanced at him and said, "Strictly speaking, this war can only be regarded as a turning point in the military, as early as last year, the turning point of the Civil War appeared. ”

Last year? Zhao Liewen listened, "Which battle does the big shopkeeper refer to?" ”

"The fall of the port of New Orleans in the South was the turning point of the whole war." Yi Zhishu said slowly: "The fall of New Orleans cut off the economic lifeline of the South, and that was the real turning point. ”

This is from the economic aspect, Zhao Liewen smiled, "The big shopkeeper can always find another way." As he spoke, he couldn't hide his excitement and said: "The victory in the Battle of Vicksburg will greatly affect the cotton market in Europe and the gold in New York, right?" ”

"In this regard, Xie Xiuyuan should know better than me." Yi Zhizhi smiled contentedly, in fact, there is no need to ask, I also know with my toes that the price of cotton in the European cotton market will inevitably grow wildly, and the gold price of the gold exchange in New York will inevitably plummet!