Ingram's words sparked another topic of discussion: Can Trinidad and Tobago be lost? If you can give it up, what will happen if you lose it? If you can't lose it, how can you keep it?

The vast majority of people, including himself, believe that the island cannot be defended unless there is another 1:4 battle of Midway, and even Nimitz, who commanded the Battle of Midway, does not have such extravagant expectations, and now the gap is even greater than it was then, and the situation is even more severe than it was then, and another 1:4 is simply a fantasy. Even in the Battle of Midway, I didn't think about fighting 1:4 at the beginning, at best it was considered a draw or a small victory, and the final result was completely accidental.

He thinks that if it works properly, it may be possible to win a small 2:3 win - the probability is less than 30%, but the probability of a draw or a small loss of 3:2 is greater than 60%, and as for the probability of a 1:4 outcome, he thinks it is less than 5%.

Dewey naturally asked: "After losing Trinidad and Tobago, what will be the situation of our army?" ”

"The German occupation of the island officially has a springboard for invading the Caribbean Sea, to the west can attack Venezuela and Panama, to the east can cooperate with the South American defenders to deal with the Recife cluster, and to the north can attack Puerto Rico first......" Ingram outlined the offensive arrow on the map, while analyzing, "From the Virgin Islands to Grenada, this semi-arc island line, there are dozens of large and small islands, with different strategic significance, Martinique and Dominica have a certain garrison, but unfortunately the strength is very weak. Martinique only has more than 3,000 Free French troops, Dominica has about more than 1,000 marines, if even the largest Trinidad and Tobago can not be kept, these islands can not be defended, counting on this semi-arc island chain to seal the German army is completely extravagant, the real strategic is Puerto Rico, Haiti Island (Haiti and Dominica), Jamaica and Cuba 4 large islands, they are the last line of defense against the Florida Peninsula. ”

This was the main disagreement between him and Turner, who believed that after the German army occupied Trinidad and Tobago, it would naturally cut off the ability of the American army to supply Recife through the Caribbean internal line, and that to supply Recife, the main force of the Atlantic Fleet must cover the line of the Mid-Atlantic.

"Unless the Germans don't care about our forces in Venezuela and Recife and attack directly to the Caribbean deep front, I don't think they will attack the half-arc island chain in the short term."

Dewey frowned and asked, "How many troops do we have on these four big islands?" ”

"After continuous dispatch and troop deployment, Cuba has 100,000 defenders, Haiti and Dominica 50,000, Puerto Rico and Jamaica more than 30,000 each, and a total of more than 2,000 army aviation aircraft and more than 500 naval aviation aircraft have been deployed. Clark said, "The main problem lies in three points: first, the naval strength is insufficient, there are only destroyers and submarines on the four large islands, and there is no fleet above the rank of cruiser, so it can only attack and harass and cannot fight head-on; Second, the coastal fortifications were still insufficient, and the large-caliber coastal defense artillery and permanent fortifications were too few to stop the shelling of the enemy's main fleet, and the level of defense could not be compared with that of Oahu, and even that of Sife and Panama; Third, the majority of novices in the air force are questionable......

The third point was confirmed by Admiral Arnold, in the Panama Campaign, the army aviation fought desperately once, suffered many casualties, and has not yet been able to recover its vitality, and only more than 500 of the more than 2,000 army aviation aircraft deployed are skilled crews, and the proficiency of the Hainan Airlines is slightly better, and it will not exceed half. In other words, the number of aviation troops that can really fight is about 800 aircraft, and the remaining 1,700 are all rookies who are chasing ducks and are still undergoing field training, and it is unknown whether they can survive the first operation. If you survive 3 battles, you can immediately become a veteran - this is the experience of the Soviet Red Army.

"From the perspective of geographical situation, the four islands are connected in a series, and the closer to the mainland, the stronger our army's defense capability and aviation strength, and it can also get reinforcements from the first line of Florida in case of emergency, so the navy has formulated a plan to resist step by step, weaken the German offensive capability with island-by-island campaigns, and finally put the main naval counterattack into action. Admiral Ingram's outline of the direction of the offensive did exist, but in comparison, I would have preferred the Germans to go north – it would have helped knock out their big teeth. "It was estimated that the German attack on the four islands would begin no earlier than March 1945, but the current progress is basically the same, and there may be a slight delay," Turner said. ”

Turner's plan was too imperfect and idealistic in the Army's view: the island's defenders and air defenses simply did not have the ability to hold out for more than a month. The air force complained that it could not draw so many skilled crews at all, and now that the skilled crews had just risen to the 3,000 mark, the west coast should be defended, Recife should be managed, and the east coast should also deploy troops, and it is impossible to deploy too many aviation forces in the Caribbean.

So a new round of quarrels began around this topic, and Dewey was at a loss to listen, and finally he could only grab Spruance and ask: "If the German army occupies Trinidad and Tobago first, and then attacks the four major Caribbean islands or one of them in March, will the navy be sure of victory?" ”

"There is a certain certainty, the probability is more than 50% ......"

According to the results of the war games of the staff officers, in the early stage of the island-by-island battle, the German army will have to pay the price of 1-2 battleships and 1-2 fleet aircraft carriers, and the Atlantic Fleet, which was put into operation in March, can reap the two new aircraft carriers that were completed and commissioned in January, and can form a 7vs3 or 7vs4 advantage in the vital aircraft carrier force, so that the chance of winning will be much greater, even if the German army does not lose an aircraft carrier, there is also a certain chance of winning in the 7vs5 state.

Dewey nodded, he finally understood why the army generals' faces were so ugly, the navy was still the same old way: let the army and the army air force go to the German superior fleet to consume, and then put the main force of the naval fleet into a counterattack when the opponent was almost exhausted, and if the battle was won, the navy would save the country, and if the battle was lost, the army would not be able to do anything in the early stage, but he didn't want to pierce this layer of window paper, and the land and sea could not get off the stage, just like the act of redeeming the civilians of Hawaii, some things can only be done but not said.

"Who is the current commander of the Caribbean Army?"

"Lieutenant General Walter Kruger, who was formerly commander of the Third Army and commander of the Southern Defense, was transferred to the post of commander of the Central American-Caribbean Theater of Operations and also commander of the Army just two months ago — an order signed by President Truman before he left office."

As soon as he said this, Dewey had an impression, Truman talked to him at the time, because Dewey was not very familiar with military generals, so he nodded and agreed without interference, but the name Kruger still gave him an idea, and he hesitated and asked: "He and Marshal Kruger of Germany?" ”

"There is a certain historical origin, probably the main line and side branch of a family in history...... However, it was quite a long way off, and General Kruger moved to the United States when he was 8 years old. Clark didn't know what Dewey was worried about and explained as carefully as he could.

Walter Krueger is an out-and-out German, born in 1881 in Platau, West Prussia, moved to Ohio, USA in 1889, caught up with the tail of the Spanish-American War, and served in the Philippines for a long time, and then taught at the Army Service College, because he knew German and translated several German tactical books, became an expert in the study of the German army, very much appreciated by Papa Pershing, served as a staff officer in World War I, and after the armistice, he served as chief of staff of the 4th Army in Germany (his permanent rank was only captain, Serving as chief of staff of the army at such a military rank shows how extraordinarily reused).

From 1923 to 1925, he served as the chief of the War Department's Operational Planning Division, and even more amazingly, he graduated from the Naval Academy in 1926 and then stayed on to teach for four years.

The selection of him as the commander of the Caribbean Theater Army was Clarke's recommendation, and he believed that a person like Kruger who knew the army, the navy, had island service experience (he had been in the Philippines for a long time), and was of German origin and understood the German army was the only one in the army, and his qualifications, age, and rank were all qualified, and he was simply a Caribbean theater commander tailored by God for the United States.

In order to better defend the southern flank, Clark proposed to separate Central America and the Caribbean from South America and form an independent Central American-Caribbean theater, and Walter Kruger became the first commander of the newly formed Central American-Caribbean theater, and his status was equal to that of Lieutenant General Stilwell, commander of the South American theater.

Dewey nodded and was relieved, it turns out that the most capable of fighting in the army are still German generals, not to mention that Kruger immigrated to the United States very early and made great contributions to the United States, even if he is really related to Marshal Kruger, it is not a big deal - wasn't the latter hanged by the Führer for treason? Isn't the traitor of the enemy the helper of the enemy?