Chapter 116: Currency Wars 1

"Yes, money, military power, and political power can be kings together, and from this point of view, I really can't compare with him." Thinking of this, Laura's eyebrows twitched slightly, and she lowered her head obediently.

"It's time for you to stop it, right? Some people in your parliament have suggested a détente with Japan, and your father seems to mean the same. Laura asked cautiously.

"But when will it be eased? A month, or half a year? I don't care, can you? Speaking of which, Ruprecht glanced at his cousin, and the attitude of the cheap dad must have been revealed by his cousin! There are not many people in the Bavarian palace who know about this, and even fewer dare to interject casually, and the only one who can get the news and dare to speak out is his cousin, right?

"Look at the need! The Japanese money can indeed buy a group of people, but the decision of the Reichstag does not affect the Federal Assembly, the Kaiser's attitude is indifferent, and it is the Bavarian Blue Army that can directly control the process in the Far East, the Qing State has just recently paid us an honorarium of 700,000 pounds, and the kingdom has decided to send another regiment of troops to maintain control of the situation in the Far East, and Russia will buy more weapons, which will be shipped directly to the Far East. If these actions are holding you back, then I can only say sorry. Ruprecht said with a smile!

"Before the outbreak of the war, you can see that the victory or defeat of this war shows that you still have a certain vision, judging from the introduction of Her Royal Highness the Princess, your warships in the past few years are quite okay, and the means are more than enough, but the capital is very limited. How big are you doing Japanese government bonds? Ruprecht asked.

"5 million marks." Laura hesitated a little, but decided to be honest, now she wants to climb the big tree of Bavaria and get foreign aid, a princess with no real power can not support her plan, whether it is money or power help, it is far from enough, but the prince in front of her is different!

"Cut, forget about your bonds, let's play a more fun game! More Principal, More Exciting Trading! It's not interesting to get a piece of the leftovers from the Japanese, but it's interesting to steal the fruits of their victory into your own hands! Ruprecht said.

Ruprecht is quite disgusted with the Japanese, whether it is the reason of his previous life, or the experience of being almost destroyed in the Battle of Toshima, or the history of World War I, Japan's invasion of the islands in the Pacific Ocean of Germany, since the trip to the United States, this Ruprecht has been thinking about how to do the Japanese again! Make some money along the way! Japanese bonds can't catch up now, but there are other opportunities!

In this era, there is already options trading, and options are actually similar to gambling to put it bluntly, and they are all about buying big and buying small. However, there is a very special thing about options trading, that is, it is a certain right that is bought and sold! With very little money and huge leverage, you can make a huge difference!

For example, the current market price is 1 yen and 1 tael of silver, and the current trend is the decline of silver, and everyone predicts that it may fall to 1 yen for 2 taels of silver in the future, then you can buy an option, and agree that at some point, you are willing to buy a batch of silver at the price of 1 yen and 1.5 taels of silver, maybe this silver needs 1000 yen, but in fact, you can get this right with 100 yen!

Well, after this option takes effect, depending on the market situation, if according to the public's prediction, the final ratio of the yen to silver becomes 1 to 2, then you will naturally lose! 1,500 taels of silver, you spend 1,000 yen, and when it comes to you, it's only worth 750 yen. If it is officially delivered, then you lose 350 yen (250 yen for the spread and 100 yen for the cost of buying the option). Of course, at this time, you generally choose to refuse delivery and give up the option, then your loss is only 100 yen.

But what if the price of silver rises instead of falling? For example, if you exchange 1 yen for 0.5 taels of silver, then you will make a lot of money! When the option expires, you can buy 1,500 taels of silver for 1,000 yen! The market value of these silver is 3,000 yen! Then you will make 1,900 yen! (Principal and 100 yen cost are excluded)

Of course, in addition to bullish, there is also bearish! Buying can make money, selling can also be earned, the whole process is reversed, the same example just now, the same setting, if everyone is bullish! If you think that in the future, 1 yen can only buy half a tael of silver, then you are willing to sell it at a price of 1.5 yen per tael of silver, and if the price of silver does not rise in the end, but falls, and becomes 1 yen can be sold for 2 taels of silver, then you buy 1,000 taels of silver when you buy 1,000 taels of silver when you buy 1,000 taels of silver, and then buy an option of 1.5 yen per tael of silver, and when the delivery date comes, then 1,000 taels of silver can be exchanged for 1,500 yen instead of the current 500 yen!

Sometimes, in order to prevent the risk of misseeing the rise and fall, people who play options will generally buy up and down at the same time. This is called hedging. In addition to this basic principle, there are some other amplification methods, so the financial market is a place where you can get rich overnight or be destitute overnight, and it is the means, information and capital that are completely competitive! And this time, Ruprecht is going to speculate on Japanese silver!

Why speculate on silver? It's easy to be willing! The indemnity of the Qing Dynasty is silver! When silver arrives in Japan, it has to be exchanged for yen or other currencies! However, according to the situation at the time, the currency and precious metals were freely convertible, and the value of the pound against silver was still rising. It is conceivable that if a large amount of silver had been poured into Japan as it has historically, the price of silver in Japan would have fallen!

230 million taels of silver, which is 40 million pounds when converted into pounds! 364.59 million yen! Japan's expenses for the First Sino-Japanese War were about 230 million yen, and before the war, Japan had a large amount of war funds in reserve, but in fact there was only a vacancy of 78.95 million yen. That's only one-fifth of the total amount of reparations. Moreover, the money to be considered is withdrawn over three years, and interest will accrue every year, and in the end, after the Japanese remove all the expenses, they will have about 300 million yen left! This silver will eventually be exchanged for the yen and other currencies, and the Japanese private and international silver markets will definitely fluctuate because of the inflow of silver!

If nothing else, the futures and options market will be bearish on silver! After all, both yen and silver are exchangeable, and the Japanese government must exchange silver for yen before it can be used. The Japanese people will also consider selling silver as soon as possible to arbitrage the yen. But the prince decided to do the opposite! Aren't you bearish on silver? Brother has to make a bullish one for you!

The second is more present~~, ask for Sanjiang tickets, ask for collections, ask for recommendations!