In Guan Zhuofan's eyes, there are four stones in the way of China's rejuvenation and rise: Japan, France, Russia, and the United Kingdom.

The first stone, Japan, has been moved; Next, Kwan Zhuofan set the order of "processing": France, Russia, and the United Kingdom.

The reason why France was put first was because in another five years, that is, around 1870, Guan Zhuofan's first "Five-Year Plan" was completed, and the first round of reform, opening up and modernization was successfully implemented, and China would initially have the ability to challenge the great powers on its own land and on land. At that time, according to the trend of history, the Franco-Prussian War broke out, and "taking advantage of your illness to kill you" was a God-given opportunity to deal with France.

Next up is Russia.

When the second "Five-Year Plan" was completed, that is, around 1875, Guan Zhuofan's plan for the "first phase of the Chinese railway project", that is, the "two vertical and two horizontal" railway network, should have begun to take shape. Among them, the "two horizontals" should be extended - the "Jingfeng Line" extends north to Alejin, that is, Harbin in later generations; The "Shitai Line" extends west to Lanzhou.

In this way, if troops are used in the northeast and northwest directions, they will have enough confidence. The construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway in Russia will not begin until 1891, that is, fifteen or six years later—no matter how "butterfly effect" it is, it will inevitably remain on the drawing board in 1875. Without the Trans-Siberian Railway, Russia would not have been able to use troops on a large scale in the far east, and could only bluff against China, which had already grown muscles at that time.

At that time, the "Aihui Treaty" and the "Beijing Treaty" were lost. I'll be able to get it back.

Five years later, when the third "Five-Year Plan" was completed, around 1880. It's the turn of the UK.

Putting Britain last, of course, is because Britain is the most powerful and difficult to deal with, but there are three other reasons, which are also important.

First, we must wait until China's nascent navy is completely out of the division before we can turn against the teacher. The navy is different from the army, and it is not something that can be hastily formed in three or two years. To "completely leave the division", fifteen years, not long or short. It's a relatively reasonable time period.

Second, France, Russia, and Britain are old enemies, and they will attack France and Russia first. It will be welcomed by the UK. It will even be supported by the British in the open and covert.

Third, it is necessary to wait for the Boer War to be detonated in advance.

Detonating the Boer War early would be tantamount to triggering a strategic contraction for Britain ahead of schedule.

As mentioned earlier, the Boer War involved a lot of British energy, so that it had no time to look eastward, and if China had any demands and actions at that time, it would even "take advantage of the fire to rob". The British could only endure it; Second, after the Boer War. Britain began to shrink strategically, and was even more powerless in the far East, and the unjust benefits obtained through unequal treaties in China certainly could not be spit out; Britain could not fail to respect China's wishes in the redivision of power in Asia.

There was an "Anglo-Japanese Alliance" in the original space-time; In this time and space, make a "British-Chinese alliance" to play, as a transition before China's complete revival and rise, Guan Zhuofan thinks that it is okay.

Let's take a look at the timing of the "early detonation of the Boer War".

In 1884, Johannesburg discovered the world's largest Rand gold mine; In 1899, the Second Boer War broke out. From the discovery of gold to the big fight, it was exactly fifteen years.

That is to say, if we follow the historical process of the original time and space, around 1880 in this time and space, the British and the Boers started fighting.

The timing is just right.

There is no doubt that the British and the Boers will turn their faces as they did in history for the sake of yellow and clear gold, which is the fate of human nature and history. Moreover, there will be no more First Boer War, it will definitely go straight to the Second Boer War.

The problem is that since the starting point is different, the end point may not be the same, and no one can guarantee that the film will be opened in 1880 on schedule.

However, the contradictions between the two countries have their own fixed trajectory of accumulation, intensification, and eruption, and there is no substantive difference between the original time and space and the original time and space on this issue. Kwan believes that the year 1880 is not far away, although it is not in the middle.

It doesn't matter if it's early, it's good not to delay it significantly.

What's more, I can work on it and do proper "regulation".

There are two main variables.

The first variable is the situation east of the Transvaal.

When gold was discovered in the original plane, the Zulu Kingdom, the most powerful external threat east of the Transvaal, had been destroyed by the British; On this plane, at this point, both the kingdom of Pedi and the kingdom of Zulu are staying in the east of the Transvaal, staring at the Boers.

After the Transvaal Republic became rich, it must expand to the east—the Boer Nianzi Zaiz had an outlet to the sea in the east. In this way, the Transvaal must be in conflict with the black kingdom, and the British must support the black kingdom openly and covertly against the Transvaal—the key is to strangle the Boers' desire to gain access to the sea.

The black kingdom is not easy to follow. In the original time and space, the Transvaal in the era of poor dicks, had suffered a big loss at the hands of the Pedi Kingdom; And the British also spent a lot of effort to destroy the Zulu Kingdom. Although the two black kingdoms were not the opponents of the Boers after the outbreak, it is difficult to say what kind of battle this battle could be fought and what kind of impact it would have on the relationship between Britain and Brazzaville.

Of course, this kind of influence is probably always the kind that Guan Zhuofan likes to see. For this, the Boers opened the film with the British in advance, and it is not perhaps.

The second variable is the foreign aid of the Boers.

In the second Boer War, the Boers received universal sympathy from the "civilized world" - both sides were Caucasian, and the Boers were weak against strong, so it was naturally easy to gain sympathy. What's more, the big guy already looks down on the high-ranking Ying Boss, who is not pleasing to the eye.

A group of volunteers of the same language and species came to South Africa from all over the world to join the Boer people in the "just cause of resistance to aggression". However, this group of people is lively, after all, it is only a drop in the bucket, and the real foreign aid of the Boers is Germany - to be precise, Kaiser Wilhelm II.

It stands to reason that it was their native Netherlands that would have supported the Boers at the national level. It's a pity that the "sea coachman" has long lost the courage of the past, and he didn't dare to really turn his face with the British, so he had to raise some money for South African compatriots by the people, donate some medical equipment or something; The government could only give the Boers "moral support".

It was Kaiser Wilhelm II who really sent guns and cannons to the Boers.

Wilhelm II really had the heart to wrestle with the British, and he saw that he could block the British in South Africa, so he made eye contact with the Boers, hooked up, and was very energetic.

The British had a great headache. In the end, although British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain finally made a deal to lure Wilhelm II to abandon his support for the Boers, the strength of the Boers had already grown considerably as a result of previous German aid.

However, Kwan believes that even if Wilhelm II does not change his course, it will be difficult for Germany to continue to support the Boers after the British and Burnese start fighting. The reason is the most fatal weakness of the Boers - the lack of access to the sea. Britain's powerful navy could easily blockade the east coast of South Africa, and it was difficult for foreign weapons and strategic supplies to reach the Boers.

So, to provide support to the Boers, primarily weapons and ammunition, had to be done before the war, and the sooner the better.

Support for the Boers was absolutely necessary. The stronger the Boers, the greater the trouble for the British; After the war, the "attitude" of the British towards China became better.

So, in this time and space, can this job still be done by the Germans?

It's hard.

Around 1880, the German emperor was Wilhelm I, and the ruling prime minister was Bismarck, Wilhelm I was much more rational and gentle than his grandson, who provoked the First World War; And with Bismarck's wisdom, he would not have thought that Germany in 1880 was capable of challenging Britain's global hegemony.

Therefore, if the Boer War had broken out earlier, the Germans should not have intervened in the entanglement between the British and the Boers as they had done in the original time and space.

The old enemies of the British are the French and the Russians - what about these two?

Around 1880, Russia had just won a crushing victory in the Tenth Russo-Turkish War, and it was exhausted and had no time to digest the fruits of the victory. If the time point of the Boer War had been brought forward a little earlier, Russia would have started a film with Ottoman Turkey, and it would have been impossible to get involved in South Africa.

In fact, even if the Russians have nothing to do at this time, the bear's paw will not reach the far southern hemisphere.

So, don't count on the Russians.

The French are left.

*(To be continued......)