On September 10, when the Shenyang Arsenal had begun to move, Zhou Hexuan came to Zhang Xueliang's Beiping residence again.

Zhang Xueliang smiled bitterly: "Are you going to persuade me again?" ”

"Sixth Marshal, the first two times I was too impulsive to explain things clearly," Zhou Hexuan tried his best to make his tone more relaxed and slow, "Let's not bring up the army or not today, let's discuss the current situation first, okay?" ”

"You say." Zhang Xueliang nodded.

Zhou Hexuan asked: "How many troops are there in Shenyang?" ”

Zhang Xueliang did not hide it, and said: "There are 8,000 elites in the Beida camp, there are several policemen in Shenyang City, and there are thousands of garrisons around. ”

Zhou Hexuan nodded and said: "That is to say, there are only 8,000 soldiers in Shenyang who can really fight a tough battle, so what about the entire Liaoning Province?" ”

"The total strength of Fengtian Province is 90,000, but most of them are garrisons with low combat effectiveness, and the elite troops are less than 20,000." Zhang Xueliang said.

Zhou Hexuan asked again: "How much is the total strength of the Feng army?" ”

"400,000, but more than 100,000 belong to the cantonment army, these soldiers are all old, weak, sick and disabled, not much different from the peasants," Zhang Xueliang said, "Most of the elite of the Feng army are in North China, and the soldiers who remain in the northeast are mainly local garrison troops." ”

"In other words, there are at least 200,000 occupiable troops in the four northeastern provinces today, and once the war starts, more than 100,000 elites can be transferred back from North China," Zhou Hexuan asked, "What is the strength of the Japanese Kwantung Army?" ”

Zhang Xueliang was very clear about this, he said: "The 2nd Division of the Japanese Army is fully formed, with a strength of 10,000 and 500 troops. However, the actual situation is more than that, there are 10,000 township soldiers (veterans) and 3,000 police officers in Tohoku, and the Japanese military strength in Tohoku is about 23,000 people. In addition, Japan has 30,000 North Korean divisions that can be quickly supported, with a total strength of more than 50,000. ”

Zhou Hexuan said: "In other words, once the war breaks out in Shenyang, the ratio of troops between the two sides is 8,000 elite troops and more than 10,000 local garrisons, against the Japanese 10,000 and 500 Kwantung Army." If the fighting escalated, it would be 100,000 Feng troops against more than 23,000 Japanese troops. The war escalated further, with 300,000 Feng troops versing more than 50,000 Japanese soldiers. Are you afraid that you won't win? ”

Zhang Xueliang said speechlessly: "It can't be counted like this, more than ninety percent of the main elite of the Feng army are deployed in North China. These troops cannot be easily transferred, otherwise there will be a big chaos not only in North China, but also in the northwestern provinces. ”

Zhou Hexuan said: "Once the Feng army and Japan go to war, it will be a national war, Yan Xishan and Feng Yuxiang dare to risk the world's condemnation to add to the chaos? ”

"That's not accurate," Zhang Xueliang said, "Mingcheng, don't forget, Yan Baichuan is returning to Shanxi on a Japanese military plane this time." In addition, I have received information that the Guangdong-Guizhou coalition forces in the south are likely to have a secret agreement with the Japanese War Department. ”

Zhou Hexuan persuaded: "Even if you completely give up the northwest and give up part of the territory in North China, it will only be a brotherly wall." The loss of the Northeast is the loss of teachers and humiliation of the country, which is more important, please think twice. ”

Zhang Xueliang patted his chest and said: "No, be honest and reassuring." According to the available information, the Japanese War Department has abandoned its conspiracy plan after being reprimanded and warned by the cabinet, and the Kwantung Army is also very quiet these days, and it no longer even takes the initiative to stir up trouble. ”

"If something goes wrong, it must be a demon, does the sixth marshal believe that the Kwantung Army, which has always been domineering, will become so well-behaved? It's paralyzing you! Zhou Hexuan said.

Zhang Xueliang said: "The Kwantung Army does not have the support of the Japanese cabinet, they do not have the strength to fight for a long time, at least there are great difficulties in military supply. Your proposal to relocate the arsenal is a good strategy after thinking about it repeatedly, as long as the Kwantung Army cannot obtain ammunition supplies, they will not have the ability to expand the war. ”

Well, Zhang Xueliang agreed to relocate the arsenal, but he didn't want the Kwantung Army to have a successor.

What is this crooked?

Zhou Hexuan asked: "What if the Japanese military staged a coup d'état and overthrew the cabinet government?" ”

"How is that possible? State affairs are child's play, and there is no reason to say that a coup d'état is a coup d'état. Zhang Xueliang did not believe this prediction at all.

Not only Zhang Xueliang, except for Zhou Hexuan, a traverser, I am afraid that no one will believe that the Japanese military can carry out a coup d'état - even the Japanese War Department itself does not believe that the coup was carried out by a small group of young Zhuang officers.

How does this make Zhou Hexuan explain?

The prophet of the unknown also needs others to believe it.

Zhou Hexuan's exhortation fell into a dead end, and the disagreement between him and Zhang Xueliang was whether the Japanese cabinet would support the Kwantung Army.

If the Japanese cabinet had consistently opposed the Kwantung Army's plan, then the situation would have developed according to Zhang Xueliang's assumption, and the Northeast side would at most sell out a little more interests. Judging from the historical trajectory, half a month after the Kwantung Army launched the September 18 Incident, the Japanese cabinet was frightened by the military coup and began to support the actions of the Kwantung Army to a certain extent (but not all of them).

The coup d'état is a small probability event and cannot be used as an argument to convince Zhang Xueliang.

Zhou Hexuan changed his thinking and said: "Six marshals, let's think about it in a different way. If the Kwantung Army creates soldiers and you resolutely resist and fight back, the Japanese cabinet will inevitably continue to oppose the suppression of military actions when it sees no benefit. And if you choose not to resist, the Kwantung Army will be able to obtain a lot of resources in Shenyang, and the Japanese cabinet will see that it is profitable, and it is very likely that it will change its attitude in favor of the military! Japan is divided into the main battle faction and the main peace faction, and the more fierce your side fights, the more advantageous the Japanese main peace faction will be. So, no matter what, you have to fight head-on! ”

"It's not proper, it's not proper," Zhang Xueliang shook his head again and again, "Fighting back can only give the Kwantung Army an excuse to continue sending troops." In the past ten years, the Japanese army has repeatedly sent troops to Northeast China, Tianjin and Shandong, and as long as the Chinese side compromises and retreats, they will retreat on their own. Even if you want to hit the Japanese, you need to wait for North China to stabilize, and then it is not too late to fight again. ”

Zhang Xueliang said it so reasonably, Zhou Hexuan was speechless.

If he were replaced by Lao Jiang at this moment, most of them would not listen to Zhou Hexuan's advice, after all, no one could have predicted a coup d'état in the Japanese cabinet. But Lao Chiang is likely to start not listening to persuasion, and when he finds out that the Japanese are expanding the war indefinitely, Lao Chiang's waist will inevitably harden, instead of retreating to the end like Zhang Xueliang.

Zhou Hexuan said helplessly: "Sixth marshal, then I will leave first, and after the Kwantung Army completely occupies Shenyang, I will persuade you again, I hope you will not make mistakes again and again." By the way, you'd better transfer the real money in the Shenyang Bank, so as not to be picked up by the Kwantung Army in vain. ”

"Don't worry, I've already made arrangements." Zhang Xueliang smiled confidently.

Zhou Hexuan shook his head and sighed, he said so much, I hope the situation is better than in history. At least Zhang Xueliang has been alert, so that he will not be occupied by others and be at a loss.

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