"The times create heroes, do not show benevolence and righteousness, are unreasonable, traitors are everywhere, and even natural and man-made disasters. Pen, fun, pavilion www. biquge。 info and so on, all these reasons can try to explain the rise and fall of this history from various angles. Explain the cycle of chaos. But in my opinion, everything here is true. But it's not the main reason. In my opinion, all the reasons fall to the root, which is people. Zhu Cihong looked around and said, "Everyone, you can turn the meeting materials at hand to page 219." ”

There was a sound of turning pages.

Above, there is a list of data compiled by the Hanlin Academy in the annals of the past dynasties.

And this data is quite novel.

Above, is the yield of millet per acre.

In the early Warring States period------ mu yielded 205.8 catties of millet.

In the late Warring States period----- mu yielded 247 catties of millet. The yield per mu is 232 catties.

In the Han Dynasty------ yield per mu was 281 catties; The yield of beans per mu is 264 catties.

The Wei, Jin, Southern and Northern Dynasties maintained ----- level of 3 stones per mu.

Tang Dynasty ------- yield per mu 334 jin (all grain crops average)

In the Song Dynasty------- yield per mu was 309 catties. (Average for all food crops)

The yield per mu of ------- in the Yuan Dynasty was 338 catties. (Average for all food crops)

In the Ming Dynasty------- yield per mu was 346 catties. Average for all food crops)

A buzzing sound sounded, and everyone looked at this statistic, but they all felt very novel. As the head of the hundred officials, Li Banghua fell into deep thought, and after a while, he continued to turn the page.

Sure enough, on page 239, there is another row of data that I didn't notice when I skimmed through it.

At the time of Qin Shi Huang's unification, the population of the Qin Dynasty was estimated at 30 million or more. By the beginning of the Western Han Dynasty, only about 15 million to 18 million remained, and by the end of the Western Han Dynasty, in 2 AD, it had increased to 60 million. By the time of Wang Mang to the beginning of the Eastern Han Dynasty, the total population had dropped to 35 million. It was not until the third year of Yongshou in the late Eastern Han Dynasty that it exceeded 60 million again.

During the period between the outbreak of the Yellow Turban Rebellion and the formation of the Three Kingdoms, the population loss was estimated to be 60%, and only about 23 million remained.

There were about 35 million in the Western Jin Dynasty. After that, the north and the south were divided, and the north entered the era of the Sixteen Kingdoms, and the population declined sharply many times, until the Sui Dynasty was reunified in the fifth year of the great cause, which recovered to about 60 million. The war at the end of the Sui Dynasty caused the population to drop by more than 50%, and by the beginning of the Tang Dynasty, there were only 25 million. In 755, on the eve of the Anshi Rebellion, the number increased to about 90 million, reaching a new peak.

The wars of the late Tang Dynasty and the Five Dynasties led to a sharp decline in the population, with an estimated population of only 40 million when the Song Dynasty was first established, and only about 30 million in its territory.

During the Northern Song Dynasty, the population continued to grow, with a population of more than 100 million in the four years of Daguan, and a total population of more than 10 million in the Liao (Jin), Western Xia, and Dali regimes.

The destruction of the Mongol Jin and the Western Xia caused unprecedented catastrophe, and the population of the north was as high as 80%, leaving only more than 1,000 people. At the time of the unification, the actual population was about 70 million. By the end of the Yuan Dynasty, the number of people in the country had increased to about 85 million.

So far, in the early years of the founding of the Ming Dynasty, the population was less than 60 million. But by the time of the Chongzhen period, the population would reach 120 million. Even, it may be a conservative estimate. It's just that due to the management ability of the empire, it is impossible to count all the black households.

Obviously, in troubled times, the population drops dramatically. But as soon as the population drops, after the troubled times are over, there will be a prosperous era quickly. The population reached its peak in the prosperous times, and then crises lurked, brewing the signs of troubled times.

It seems like it's a spell that cures the cycle of chaos.

Thinking back to what Zhu Cihong mentioned earlier, and comparing the changes in grain output in previous dynasties, Li Banghua's eyes were shining, and he obviously understood.

Zhu Cihong continued: "It can also be said that at the peak of the Han Dynasty, the population was up to 60 million. Exceeding this number means that the empire has reached its limit and will go to the end times. By the time of the Sui and Tang dynasties, the population at its peak was 90 million. By the time of the Ming Dynasty, it had reached 60 million in the early years, reaching the level of the Han Dynasty, and so far, there have been 1.2 billion, which is higher than the heyday of the Sui and Tang dynasties. For most people, it means prosperity, which is the atmosphere of prosperity. Yes, most of the time, it is. But any matter is one and the same, which also means that behind such so-called prosperity and development, there is danger and chaos. Like what...... Daming, is there so much food that can feed the stomachs of this 200 million people? ”

Everyone looked at the table of the mu yield and had different thoughts.

Huang Daozhou frowned and said: "According to the statistics of this mu yield, this has risen in all dynasties. Now the calamity has passed, and the war has subsided. This year is also a little more favorable than in previous years, so it should not be a problem. ”

"What Huang Aiqing said, there is some truth in standing up." Zhu Cihong said with a smile: "But after the catastrophe, you can still see countless people alive, which doesn't mean that no one has died in this catastrophe." It's just that we can only see living people. This is survivorship bias. Our eyes don't see the truth all the time. If our minds are not able to stay awake, then many times ...... We, too, will be deceived by our own eyes. ”

Everyone was slightly silent.

Li Banghua slowly bowed his head and said, "From the minister's point of view, there are only so many people in these dynasties. For example, the 60 million in the Han Dynasty is not that the Han Dynasty could not afford to give birth to more people, but ...... It can only feed so many people. Comparing the yield per mu with the total population, the ratio is broadly consistent. That is, there is a limit to what an empire can accommodate the population. The Han Dynasty had about 60 million people, and the Sui and Tang dynasties had about 90 million people. ”

When everyone heard this, the voices of discussion suddenly became more eager.

The prosperous era of the Han and Tang dynasties, this is the impression of countless people after reading history books. Every Chinese son and daughter will be proud of this, but if one day it is said that today can be compared to the prosperity of the Han and Tang dynasties, I am afraid that the first time is not pride, but disbelief.

Similarly, if the limit population in the Han and Tang dynasties was 90 million, then what would happen to the Ming Dynasty, which had far exceeded the limit population in the Han and Tang dynasties?

Since I can't believe that I can surpass the Han and Tang dynasties......

Then it clearly means that the empire is at the end of its life and is about to decline......

If, of course, only if, if there is no Zhu Cihong in this time and space, there is no series of great victories that turn the tide.

This Ming Dynasty seems to be really a post-apocalyptic atmosphere.

……

"That's right!" Zhu Cihong nodded appreciatively, and let the room regain quiet: "The total level of social development in a period of time has a concept of extreme accommodation. But note that this does not mean that he will not necessarily exceed such a limit population concept. For example, according to my theory, the optimal population of the Ming Dynasty is about 60 million. But in fact? It's twice as much! Can I stop this? Can the imperial court stop it? No, if anyone dares to do so, then he must be punished by God. The established laws of operation in this world will certainly give a profound negative lesson. Even if the empire really only has so much food to feed so many people, any more mouth will starve to death. But there will definitely be more people who will be born......"

Inside, there was silence. (To be continued.) )