Zhuge Liang's speculation was unanimously agreed by everyone, but there are a few key issues that make everyone very puzzling. Pen? Interesting? Pavilion wWw. ｂiquge。 ｉｎfo

The first is that Yuan Shao will never help Yuan Shu and himself form a strong momentum.

The purpose of the rebels attacking Hebei is the same, that is, to consume the strength of Hebei and other forces and buy time for their own development.

Under this premise, Yuan Shao's ultimate goal may be to use Yuan Shu's defection blow to make Cao Cao's three alliances and Yuan Shu scuffle, and then he swallows the Central Plains in one bite. In this way, he can not only control the imperial system, but also form a confrontation with Hebei with strong strength.

Yuan Shao's thoughts, it is impossible for Yuan Shu not to know. So why does Yuan Shuwei want to jump into this trap?

The second is that since Hebei knew about Yuan Shu's strategy, it could immediately reveal this strategy to Cao Cao's three alliances. In this way, Hebei can not only avoid this big war, but also send Yuan Shu into a desperate situation and let the Central Plains be in flames.

At this moment, as long as Hebei restrains Yuan Shao and allows Cao Cao and Liu Bei to attack Yuan Shu, Yuan Shu may have no choice but to flee to Jiangdong.

Could it be that Yuan Shu knew that the purpose of this battle in Hebei was not to repel the rebels, but to destroy the three-legged momentum, and he would never give up this battle?

In this case, what method did he use to avoid his army from entering the Jizhou battlefield? Could it be that just the Jiangdong battlefield can dispel Cao Cao and Liu Bei's vigilance against him?

Third, Cao Cao gathered the strength of the three families to rebuild the imperial system, took the initiative, and dealt a severe blow to Yuan Shao. In this case, he did not try to stabilize the three-legged situation, but actively united with the Yuan clan to send troops to attack Hebei, and his intention was by no means simple.

Xu Maogong and others believe that Cao Cao's Jianfeng may not be referring to Hebei, but Yuan Shu.

If Cao Cao's ultimate goal is Yuan Shu, then this is an excellent strategy to replace defense with offense, on the one hand, he can use this battle to severely damage Yuan Shao, and on the other hand, he can eliminate Yuan Shu in a grand manner, and quickly consolidate the three-legged momentum.

If Cao Cao has a plan, then should we put the plan on the plan and put the rebels into Jizhou?

This leads to the fourth question, is all this a ruse of the rebels? If it is a rebel ruse, Hebei will be under great pressure.

The lights in the tent were bright, and Li Yi and his nine subordinates stayed up all night and continued to discuss.

Yuan Yao is the only eldest son of Yuan Shu, with Yuan Shu's personality of not seeing rabbits and not scattering eagles, he will not lose his son for the benefit of others, he will not do this kind of thing no matter what, so Yuan Shu's strategy is still credible.

There are many contradictions among the rebels, and even if there are hundreds of thousands of troops, it is difficult for them to form a huge combat strength from top to bottom. It is not a good idea to put them into Jizhou, disperse their forces, and annihilate them.

The Northern Xinjiang Army fought in Jizhou, which not only occupied the right time and place, but also saved a lot of manpower and material resources, and also just met the wishes of the generals, which could fully stimulate the morale of the soldiers and strive to inflict heavy losses on the rebels with flexible and changeable tactics.

On the contrary, because of the elongation of the battle line, the rebels have encountered great difficulties in both command and transportation of grain and grass, and the balance of power between the enemy and us will change as the war continues.

When we hit the Central Plains, it was like an open five fingers hitting an iron fist, but now that the rebels are fighting Jizhou, we are an iron fist, and the rebels have become open five fingers. Comparatively speaking, we have a greater certainty of defeating the enemy.

In the past, we have always kept our eyes on the Central Plains, wanting to burn the flames of war to the Central Plains, lest Jizhou be damaged. As a matter of fact, in the Central Plains, the price we paid was also very large, both in terms of the loss of troops and the consumption of money and food. Moreover, we have not yet been able to seize the initiative on the battlefield to ensure that the objectives of the war are achieved.

After putting the rebels into Jizhou, we have completely grasped the initiative on the battlefield, and we can choose suitable targets to attack and annihilate to ensure the defeat of the enemy and destroy the three-legged pattern.

When the war was about to begin, it was a taboo for soldiers to suddenly completely change the entire attack strategy and change from fighting on the outside line to fighting on the inside line.

Therefore, several major strategists such as Li Yi and Xu Maogong appeared very hesitant.

Although Zhuge Liang and Sima Yi have outstanding talents and abilities, they participated in this kind of battle of hundreds of thousands of people for the first time, and they didn't have any bottom in their hearts, and they didn't dare to say a word when they sat there.

Shi Xunyu, the head of the General's Mansion, began to count the accounts with his fingers: "Now, we have mobilized five infantry legions of 160,000 people, three cavalry legions plus the lord's personal guards, a total of 60,000 iron cavalry, and we have a total of 220,000 troops. ”

"If the army crosses the river to the south, it will need to recruit about 800,000 to 1 million people. That is, about 1 million to 1.2 million people need to consume money and food in this big war. According to the prediction of Dasi Nong Zhong Xuan, if we start to cross the river in mid-April, the imperial court's wealth, especially the amount of grain, even if we add the grain harvested in May this year, we will only be able to support it for four to five months at most. ”

"Therefore, the great army must end the fighting by October. However, according to the situation of the rebels, we may not be able to gain a foothold in the Central Plains in four to five months, and the final outcome may be to withdraw from Hebei and gain nothing. ”

"The number of rebels is about 400,000 to 500,000, but because of the small number of cavalry, the consumption of each force is much lower, and the number of people required is about 1.5 million, and the consumption is also very large, but judging from the wealth of Sili, Jingzhou, Yuzhou, Yangzhou, Xuzhou and Qingzhou, they can fully support more than five months."

"Sili, Yuzhou, Xuzhou is the rich land of this dynasty, there are many fields and fertile, and because of the continuous wars and disasters, resulting in a large number of population deaths and migration, less people and more fields, the recovery is naturally faster than Hebei, where there are many people and less fields."

"As for Jingzhou and Yangzhou, because they did not suffer from large-scale wars, they have always been in a relatively stable state, and they are one of the richest places in the Han Dynasty today, comparable to Youzhou, which has been carefully built by the lord for more than ten years."

In addition, since Dong Zhuo's chaotic government and the princes supported their own troops, the number of displaced people has surged, and it has become easy to recruit troops in various places, and the military system has also undergone great changes. Yuan Shao, Liu Biao and others all used the conscription system, but no longer paid military salaries, but replaced them with food. The soldiers only had to eat enough, and they didn't want anything else. Since last year, Cao Cao has adopted the military cantonment system to raise soldiers, and he has not released military salaries, and the number of troops has grown rapidly. ”

"As for the forced labor in the states and counties, it is now more than thirty days, and the princes have the final say. In this kind of war-torn situation, it is very common for various places to build bridges and roads, control rivers and canals, and transfer Caogu, but how dare the poor people not obey in order to survive? As long as you can give them one meal a day, you can tell them to do anything. ”

"The rebel leader does not need to pay the rebel soldiers or pay the men for more than the prescribed period of forced labor, as long as he keeps the lives of these people, the battle can go on forever."

"Although Hebei has a large territory, it is mostly a newly developed territory, basically in a state of ruin, and the population is also large, but more than seventy percent of the population is a displaced person who has migrated to the north in recent years, so in addition to Youzhou and Jizhou, other places are now just able to achieve self-sufficiency, and it is not bad to provide much wealth, so Hebei cannot support a protracted war."

"And the rebels occupy seven prefectures south of the Yellow River, including Sili, Yan, Xu, Qing, Jing, Henan, and Yang, except for Guanzhong and Guanxi in Sili, other places can provide money and food, and they can fight for a year and a half, and they can drag us down."

Xun Yu sighed and continued: "In comparison, it is far more advantageous for the Northern Xinjiang Army to fight in Jizhou than in the Central Plains. ”

"Fighting in Jizhou, first of all, the suffering of long-distance transportation of grain and grass was eliminated, so that the number of people needed and the consumption of grain during transportation would be greatly reduced, and at least more than half of the grain could be saved."

"Secondly, the rebels entered Jizhou and aroused the anger of the people in Jizhou, and we can take advantage of the people's sentiment to defend their homes and the country and encourage them to extend their service without compensation, so that we can save a sum of money for the imperial court."

"We have enough food and money to drag this war on, but we can drag the rebels to the end of their wealth until they are exhausted, and when they are no longer able to attack again, it will be the end of their defeat. The defeat of the rebels was not only a defeat on the battlefield of Jizhou, but also a defeat of their complete defeat. In this way, we will be able to attack southward on a large scale next year, and the day of pacifying the world will be just around the corner. ”

"But the rebels have hundreds of thousands of troops coming in, and the losses in Jizhou are beyond what you and I can imagine." Li Yi looked at the map on the desk, shook his head and sighed.

Xu Maogong stretched out a hand, lightly drew a line along the Qinghe River on the map, and said: "Starting from Yecheng, along the Zhangshui River to Quzhou, and then from Guangzong, along the Qinghe River to Nanpi, this is our last line of defense." ”

"Three hundred miles, three hundred miles north from the Yellow River." Li Yi frowned, looked at the map with full attention, and muttered to himself, "There are many rivers in these three hundred miles, and the Yellow Flood Area is one after another, and it is difficult for the Iron Cavalry to give full play to the advantage of running." ”

"I can't go back." Xu Maogong said resolutely, "Within three hundred miles, there is the entire Qinghe country, more than a dozen counties in the south of Wei County and Bohai County, and more than a dozen counties in Dongjun and Pingyuan County, with a population of nearly two million. We can evacuate all these two million people to the counties in the north of Jizhou, turn all the fields in these dozens of counties into fallow land, and turn them into deserted battlefields. ”

"Although there are more than 1,000 miles from Wei County to Bohai County, the depth of the entire battlefield is too short, and hundreds of thousands of troops are fighting here, and it is difficult to guarantee that the rebels will not kill the Qinghe." Li Yi shook his head again and again, "If the rebels start to cross the river in the second half of April, it will be difficult for us to withdraw more than two million people, and there is obviously not enough time." ”

"Immediately send someone to cross the river to the south, try every means to meet Yuan Shu, and tell him to delay the attack until late May, otherwise, we will not help him." Xu Maogong thought for a moment and said.

Li Yi hesitated. (To be continued.) )