“…… But Shirley, the north of this era is what people call a bitter cold place, and the population base is not very large. Pen, fun, pavilion www. biquge。 info 300,000? Really calculated, we have basically emptied all the states and counties in the Beiping area! I'll give you an account here, and maybe you'll be able to understand. ”

As he spoke, Lu Ren took a blank piece of paper and settled the account with Shirley.

At the peak of the Han Dynasty, the population was about 40 million, but with the decline of the Eastern Han Dynasty, this population base has been decreasing. Counting from the era of Huan Ling in the Eastern Han Dynasty, natural disasters and plagues have continued, and man-made disasters have not ended. The Yellow Turban Rebellion, Dong Zhuo's Rebellion, and the melee of the division of the heroes all directly led to a large-scale reduction in population.

Another example is Cao Cao, who is also a well-known butcher, who will slaughter the enemy's prefectures and counties from time to time, and killed Yuan Shao's 70,000 or 80,000 soldiers in one breath during the Battle of Guandu...... This matter did not change because of Lu Ren's appearance. It's not that Lu Ren doesn't want to change, but Lu Ren at that time knew that he couldn't change. Lao Cao is going to clean up Yuan Shao's family to avoid future troubles, where will he be soft in this kind of matter?

Don't say more, what is the concept of these 70,000 or 80,000 young and strong men? Cao Cao checked his household registration after occupying Jizhou, saying that Jizhou could get 300,000 soldiers. Based on this, the population of Jizhou should be about 1.5 million at that time. However, Cui Yan reminded Cao Cao that Jizhou was in chaos under Yuan Shao's governance, and that after fighting for so long, the household registration figure was not very reliable, so it is not difficult to see that the actual population of Jizhou at that time may be about 700,000 at most, and there is a lack of young and strong labor...... It's all war, and it's gone.

And Jizhou was the richest and most prosperous state in the world at that time, and even Jizhou only had a population of 700,000, where could there be more bitter and cold states and secluded states? According to the household registration statistics of the Wei period of the Sima Zhao Dynasty, there were only local wars in the three parties of Wei, Shu and Wu for decades, and the population loss in the core area was not much, but by the time of the Sima Zhao Dynasty, the total population of the Wei realm was only between five and six million, and most of them were concentrated in the relatively prosperous areas of Sili, Qing, Xu, Hanoi, and Hezhong, and the population of the north could have about one million. During the same period, Shu had only 940,000 and Wu had only 2.3 million.

It's a bit of a stretch, so I'll stop there. In short, after a few decades of relative stability, the population of the northern border is only about one million, then in the original history, around 20 years after Jian'an, the total population should be less than one million. And most of them should be located in Jizhou and Hezhong, and the population of the two states will never be too much. However, if these populations gather together and form a spontaneous village army, it is no problem to resist small-scale Wuhu harassment and looting.

Now the problem arises. Lu Ren assumed that Lao Cao's three sons with Yuan Shao, and the subsequent period of the conquest of Karasuma, the population of the northern territory was about 700,000, then it had grown to about 800,000 at most in the past six years. And Yizhou took away 300,000 of them, and only about 500,000 were left in the north.

The most important thing is that everyone wants to live a peaceful life, and the relocation is led by Yizhou, and in terms of mentality, how many people in the north are willing to continue to stay in a place where they will be constantly harassed by Wuhu nomadism and live an unstable life? And in the world, Yizhou is not the only one to go. The nearby Jizhou, Qingzhou, and Xuzhou are directly under Lao Cao, and the military and military defenses are substantial, and the Wuhu nomads dare not go over, isn't it much better than these places and secluded places?

From this point of view, it would be very good to have 300,000 or 400,000 people in the north now. And the population has become so small, and the people live relatively scattered, and the spontaneous armed defense force is naturally weak. And then the population is getting smaller and smaller, and the smaller it is, the easier it is to be robbed......

"So if my analysis is correct, what have we done?"

After Lu Ren let out a long sigh, his palm slammed on the table.

Shirley shook her head gloomily and said, "A flutter of the little butterfly's wings will cause a large-scale storm...... Senior brother, I originally thought that the battle that broke out between us and Sun Quan would be an outbreak point for the butterfly effect caused by our two traversers, but now it seems that we are likely to have more than one outbreak point left. If the population of the North continues to decline in this way, and the North loses the self-defense power it should have, I fear that the historical chaos may really happen sooner. ”

Lu Ren pondered for a while, shook his head and said, "This kind of thing, Lao Cao shouldn't sit idly by. At present, the problems in the north are mainly in Liaoxi and Youbeiping, and for the time being, there is no threat to Lao Cao's HB area. It's just that although Lao Cao won't sit idly by, he put Liu Bei and Karasuma in front of Lao Cao...... Which one does Shirley think Lao Cao will deal with first? ”

Shirley said: "Of course it's Liu Bei...... If nothing else, Lao Cao will have to compete with Liu Bei for Hanzhong later. ”

Lu Ren said: "I calculated, the original Daijun Karasuma rebellion should have been in Jian'an for twenty-three years, and then Cao Zhang led the troops to settle it." And now it's only eighteen years since Jian'an, and the activities of the Karasuma nomadic tribe have been so frequent, there should indeed be the negative effects we have caused in it. However, according to Lao Cao's handling policy, Cao Zhang is likely to be sent out in advance...... But to be honest, that's not all I'm worried about. ”

Shirley said, "What? ”

Lu Ren said: "If it's just Karasuma and the Northern and Southern Huns, with their strength, things may not be too big, but the question now is that I'm worried that the Xianbei tribe will also intervene?" Historical sources say that the adult of Xianbei ...... This adult has the meaning of the tribal alliance leader, and the Xianbei tribal alliance leader is Kebineng, who led tens of thousands of rangers to the south in the twenty-third year of Jian'an, and happened to meet Cao Zhang's troops, and after seeing Cao Zhang's battle, he directly asked for surrender.

"And I think so, Xianbei has made a move, it should be affected by Karasuma's rebellion, and he wants to follow the trend and reap the benefits. But now Karasuma has no formal rebellion, but its activities are much more frequent, but the Xianbei tribe will definitely follow suit. It is likely that it was during this period that the climate became a bit of a climate, so he was able to gather tens of thousands of troops to follow.

"Of course, there is not much movement in Xianbei at the moment, just some rangers have come to rob, but we can think that Xianbei is tempting. If it is found that the defense force in the north has become weak, what will happen to Xianbei next? Will the power of Kebineng grow much more than the original history?

"If it were me, I would have taken the opportunity to go south. No matter what kind of reaction Lao Cao will have next, let's get enough of the benefits first. And because Kebineng's strength is much stronger than the original history, if he doesn't run into Cao Zhang and ask Cao Zhang to surrender as he did in the original history, wouldn't these northern states and counties be messed up? ”

Shirley nodded silently.

Lu Ren continued: "These are the things I am worried about. In addition, I have another thing that worries me. ”

"Where?"

Lu Ren said: "Xianbei should not go south easily without a good opportunity, but now, I suspect that someone is playing tricks in secret, wanting to take advantage of the fact that Lao Cao, Liu Bei, and Sun Quan are competing in the interior, and the Central Plains is relatively empty." ”

Shirley Qi said: "Who? Sun quan? He's so far away, he can't get there, can he? ”

Lu Ren shook his head and said, "It's unlikely to be Sun Quan." But Shirley, we've always overlooked one person, someone who has been in the North for many years and has some ambitions. The most important thing is that his territory basically borders Xianbei, and he is fully capable of getting in touch with Xianbei, Karasuma, and the Xiongnu in the north and south. ”

Shirley suddenly woke up: "Senior brother, do you mean the Liaodong Gongsun clan?" ”

Lu Ren nodded and said, "Since the generation of Gongsun Du, there are few people in the Gongsun clan who are like words. Gongsun Du was once named General Wuwei and Yongning Township Hou by Lao Cao, but Gongsun Du said, 'I am the king of Liaodong, He Yongning also', and then threw the seal ribbon into the warehouse; Gongsun Kang was a little better, but he also had tens of thousands of troops in Liaodong, and when the old Cao soldiers arrived in Liucheng, he sent two heads of Er Yuan, and there was no war with Lao Cao.

"This seems to be quite peaceful, but in fact, Gongsun Kang has left behind the complete combat power of Liaodong; Later, Gongsun Kang died of illness, and now Gongsun Gong, who is useless, succeeds to the throne. Gongsun Gong is useless, but Gongsun Yuan next to him is an ambitious figure, and later took the position of Gongsun Gong. So according to my speculation, if the Gongsun clan really colluded with Karasuma and Xianbei, then it must be Gongsun Yuan who is playing tricks inside, on the one hand, expanding the territory and strength of the Gongsun clan, and on the other hand, Gongsun Yuan is trying to seize military power, and then give Gongsun Gong ......"

At this point, Lu Ren didn't say anything more, just stretched out his finger and swiped it lightly on his neck.

Seeing this, Shirley groaned slightly, and immediately suggested: "I'll go and arrange it right away, and send Xizuo to Liaodong to inquire about the news." Our caravan also has some contacts with Liaodong, so it shouldn't be difficult to get a few details to find out the news. ”

Lu Ren looked at Xue Li, nodded slightly, and then added, "So the matter of sending Murong Ziying and Tuoba Yu to the area of Liaoxi to carry out activities cannot be delayed any longer. The current situation is conducive to development, so I want to let Murong Ziying and Tuoba Yu integrate many Xianbei tribes as soon as possible, so that the development momentum of the Kebi Neng tribe can be curbed. In addition, Murong Ziying and Tuoba Yu are pro-Han factions, and with them, we can save a lot of trouble......"

Lu Ren looked at Xue Li, nodded slightly, and then added, "So the matter of sending Murong Ziying and Tuoba Yu to the area of Liaoxi to carry out activities cannot be delayed any longer. The current situation is conducive to development, so I want to let Murong Ziying and Tuoba Yu integrate many Xianbei tribes as soon as possible, so that the development momentum of the Kebi Neng tribe can be curbed. In addition, Murong Ziying and Tuoba Yu are pro-Han factions, and with them, we can save a lot of trouble......" (To be continued.) )