Chapter 55: Choosing and Being Chosen (11)
"We will definitely defend the interests of the Entente." The British Minister to China swore to the French Minister in China, and after saying that, the British Minister said, "Please have tea." ”
"When we asked what the People's Party was going to do, the People's Party actually told me that the People's Party's march into Guangxi was China's internal affair and France had no right to interfere. I have never seen such unreasonable Chinese. "The French minister has a lot of intentions to roar, but it would be too detrimental to the dignity of the diplomat to roar at the British legation. So the French minister was loud and still within the range of proving his sanity.
Since the British minister had already guaranteed the interests of the Entente, he naturally refused to speak casually. Listening to the chatter of the French minister, the core idea is that Britain must come forward to solve the crisis facing France. The British Minister was very impatient. The seizure of Annan by France was not by its own force. The French army was defeated at Zhennanguan, and the French government collapsed. Still with the help of the British, the Manchus had to agree that France had control over Annam. In this regard, Britain looked down on France.
The French minister continued to say excitedly: "The People's Party must withdraw from Guangxi and recognize Guangxi as our French sphere of influence." As he spoke, the French minister stared at the British minister with burning eyes. The French minister naturally did not know the ridicule in the English minister's mind, but it must be explained that even if he did, he would pretend not to know. This ridicule is simply not worth mentioning compared to the threat facing France.
The British minister listened attentively, and the inner turmoil was completely different from the outward calm. The British Minister was constantly smacking in his heart about the completely unexpected extent to which the BJP had acted.
After the defeat of Zhennan Pass, the French unexpectedly got Annan. But the French were not satisfied with getting Annam, the British turned the Yangtze River valley into their sphere of influence, and the French also tried to turn Guangxi and Yunnan-Guizhou into the French sphere of influence. Originally, the People's Party base area did not border Yunnan-Guizhou in Guangxi, so the French were not enthusiastic about the contradictions between the People's Party and the British. However, the People's Party did not stop after seizing Hunan, and the armed forces of the Hunan government were driven all the way into Guangxi by the People's Party, and the People's Party followed this defeated army into Guangxi in one fell swoop. After mastering Hunan, Guangxi Yungui opened the door to the People's Party, and France suddenly found that its greedy tongue reaching out to the three Chinese provinces directly met the Bayonets of the People's Party.
It was impossible for Chen Ke to reveal the outcome of the First World War to anyone, but Chen Ke himself knew that the French had sent 5 million young men to war in order to resist the Germans, and they were basically exhausted in trench warfare. Even when France surrendered in World War II to preserve the vitality of the population, China did not take the French seriously. During the Korean War, China sent a marshal to lead the volunteer army, and in the subsequent war to resist France and aid Vietnam, China did not send troops itself, but only sent General Chen Geng to lead the advisory group to Vietnam. Commanding the Vietnamese army dealt with the French army. The strategy formulated by Chen Ke this time was the same, sending an advisory group to let the "Annan Liberation Army" with the Workers' and Peasants' Revolutionary Army as the main body be responsible for liberating Annan. There is no basis for such a violent reaction by the French, but it cannot be said to be an incorrect judgment.
The People's Party troops were directly opposite France, and the dramatic change in the situation was difficult for the British Minister to deal with. His strategic judgment has always been that the People's Party will choose to fight Beiyang first, and then there will be other actions. The recent presence of the People's Party Chairman Chen Ke's mobile Central Committee in Zhengzhou undoubtedly reinforced this view of the British minister. The People's Party is going to have a final showdown with Beiyang. Based on this strategic judgment, the British minister formulated a series of strategies of his own.
Even if the British Legation does not know how to pronounce or write this sentence in Chinese, they fully understand this truth and know how to implement it. The method of "dragging" the implementation of Beiyang Yuan Shikai. Since Beiyang already had the intention of joining the Entente, it must have been asked by Britain. Hang the carrot of "joining the Entente" in front of the Beiyang government, and the donkey of Beiyang can only obediently go forward.
However, Beiyang did not send people to Britain to inquire about it, nor did it ask people to seek information from the British minister. As if nothing had happened, Beiyang completely restrained its actions and did not take any overreactions. The British decided to dry the North Ocean for a while. Even if the British don't do it, the People's Party will press forward to the North Ocean step by step. But after almost a month, the British were disappointed. As if nothing had happened, the BJP neither provoked nor showed weakness in the north. In the south, however, the military offensive of the People's Party directly dragged the French into the water. The change in the situation was so great that the British minister felt that he needed to take a long-term view, and he said some clichés from the diplomatic circles, and finally sent the French minister to China away.
The recent changes in the situation were very difficult for everyone in the British Legation. Britain is, after all, an island nation and does not have a direct border with Germany. France was both bordering and feuding with Germany, and all its forces were placed in the war with Germany, and Britain had to support France in fighting the Germans on the front line.
"Sir Humphrey, as far as you can see, how many troops of the BJP can be put into war?" The personnel of the British Legation could not help but ask the question again. Beiyang's more than one million troops are distributed in northeast China, Hebei, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and southern Fujian and Zhejiang. From the point of view of the strategic form, the Beiyang Army can launch a large-scale attack on the People's Party on a front of thousands of kilometers.
Therefore, in addition to the 600,000 troops of the People's Party, the British side is very keen to finalize the number of troops of the People's Party, for example, after the capture of Hunan this time, it will continue to march into Guangxi, at least more than 100,000 troops will be mobilized. What kind of void will the BJP's troop transfer create in its strategic deployment?
Sir Humphrey had a hard time answering this, and the People's Party army always gave him the impression that it was never exhausted. Wherever there is a need for troops, a large number of BJP soldiers can always be assembled. After a moment's hesitation, Sir Humphrey said, based on the intelligence gathered by the British, and his own inference, "I estimate that there will be a million at most." If this amount is exceeded, the weapons and equipment of the BJP will not be satisfied. "This is also a reasonable inference that the steel production equipment imported by the People's Party can produce about 950,000 tons of steel a year if it runs at half capacity. The British Legation believes that the technical level of the BJP is at best this level. If the steel that the People's Party has invested in the construction of the railway is removed, it will be the limit to be able to arm an army of one million.
Continuing to calculate according to other intelligence, the number of troops that the various forces in China that are currently on the opposite side of the People's Party are probably between 2.8 million and 3.2 million. If Beiyang can complete its military plan to expand its army to 2.4 million, then this number will probably reach 3.6 million. At least in terms of military strength, 3.6 million against 1 million, the odds of victory are undoubtedly on the side of 3.6 million.
"If it really doesn't work, we can still let Japan send troops." This was made by the British minister.
With regard to Japan, the responsible side of Britain in Asia only demanded that Japan fulfill its commitments to the Entente. The Anglo-Japanese alliance was a military treaty that did not involve the economy. By 1914 Japan owed hundreds of millions of pounds to the British government, as well as to other banks and public debts. Unless Japan renounces the Anglo-Japanese alliance and joins the German side at this time, the arrears will be a dog leash around Japan's neck. No matter what the mood of Japan is, it has to follow the British pace.
After compiling all the data, the British Legation in China, which was in charge of East Asia, probably decided to go ahead with its own plan. While the discussion was being held, the Legation in China received a telegram from Britain. With the submarine cable, the transmission of information from China to the UK is much smoother. The domestic instructions received by the British Minister in China on 1 November 1914 can be summed up in three parts.
1. Britain's naval power in the Far East must not be used to block Sino-US trade.
2. Agree to the accession of the Chinese government (Beiyang government) to the Entente.
3. Stabilize the situation in Asia as soon as possible and increase the scale of British procurement in Asia.
The British Legation was quite opposed to these three orders, and even the most acceptable second order, which allowed China to join the Entente, felt that the British domestic approach was too simplistic and crude. If we conduct delicate negotiations and make full use of the current situation, we can take advantage of the contradictions between Beiyang and Japan to gain more benefits. The position in Britain is entirely based on the idea that "more is better than less". This is completely contrary to the British style of-stirring diplomacy.
The officials of the legation were probably able to think of the British thinking in this era, when there were only three independent countries in Asia, China, Japan, and Siam. All three countries are gathered in such a ghost place as the Far East, with complex contradictions, barbarism and backwardness. Rather than taking advantage of contradictions, it is better to completely settle the situation. After all, Britain did not expect that the war in Europe would be far more difficult than imagined. Quickly pulling the countries of the Far East into the chariot of the Entente would also reduce Russia's worries. Moreover, the feeling of the BJP in Britain is not bad, as Britain's largest trading partner in the Far East, profits from the Far East are not insignificant to Britain.
As for the People's Party's clamor for the recovery of China's sovereignty, Britain has been in a worldwide power contraction since the Boer War. Britain was thinking of a stable Far East, a Far East that would be conducive to the structure of the British Empire. It would be best to turn China into a colony, even if China regained all its sovereignty, as long as the country was genuinely willing to continue to expand trade with Britain and accept Britain's dominance in the Far East, Britain would be able to accept the existence of such a China.
The Boer War emptied the British Empire's treasury, and it was no longer the time to save face. In response to the ambitious challenge of Wilhelm II, England lost everything if it lost the war. By that time, let alone the Far East, Britain would have completely lost control of Europe. Therefore, Britain was reluctant to commit even the slightest force in the Far East. In the face of the decline of the British Empire, the officials of the British Legation in China sighed for a while. If it was before, where there was chaos in the whole world, there would be the figure of Britain as a-stirring stick. Even if there is no chaos in some areas, the British shit-stirring stick will intervene in the region to stir up peace in its own interests. Compared to the extremely tense domestic government of the United Kingdom, those good times are very nostalgic.
In this regard, the British Legation cannot but admit that the young people in their twenties and thirties of the People's Party really have enough patience. In the matter of foreign trade, they can really calm down. Not only did the BJP not do anything to impede foreign trade, but it continued to honor the contents of the quota trade agreement.
In 1913, before the outbreak of the war, the People's Party-controlled areas completed a trade deal with Britain to £70 million. The most satisfying thing for the British side is that the BJP fully adheres to the trade balance. Earn as much as you want, spend as much as you want. Meticulous and rigorous. What Britain wants at home is the expansion of the Asian trade quota, the control of Asian shipping and financial channels, and the British have been able to make great profits through trade itself. The balanced trade with the BJP was very satisfying to Parliament. Statistically, the BJP is not hostile to the UK. As for shouting a few times to take back sovereignty, China has shouted so from the Qing government to the Beiyang government, from the emperor to the common people. The shouting of the BJP is not necessarily different from that of others.
Compared with the People's Party's trade-oriented actions, the Beiyang government has been slow to progress, and the trade between the two sides has not exceeded 10 million pounds so far. Moreover, the Beiyang government also borrowed a large amount of money for military expansion. The British government is also concerned about the Beiyang government's ability to repay.
The British Legation had never heard of "no investigation, no voice", and if they had heard of it, they would have shouted it to curse the British government thousands of miles away. However, the status of the British Legation in China is not high, and although they can speak loudly to the Japanese and Beiyang governments, it is impossible for them to change their domestic policy. Unless the British Legation in China can effectively change the current situation in the Far East, this change must be in great favor of British interests. Otherwise, they will also be ruthlessly removed from their posts.
The British Legation in China, which originally thought that it could sit firmly in the Diaoyutai and play with the forces of the Far East in the palm of its hand, was helpless. After discussion, everyone came to the result, and under no circumstances could the situation in China be allowed to develop freely. Moreover, the current situation in China has entered the mode of civil war in an all-round way. On the surface, it may seem like a simple military conflict, but there will be no pause when the BJP has completed its preparations for civil war.
As soon as the policy of "fighting within the limits of its authority" was established, the British Legation began to operate. First, they informed the Beiyang government that Britain agreed that the Beiyang government would join the Entente on behalf of China. Without waiting for Yuan Shikai to be happy, the British minister told Yuan Shikai that as a member of the Entente, the Beiyang government needed to provide troops to the Entente. According to the current scale of the Beiyang Army, it is necessary to provide 500,000 troops for the Allied fronts.
Yuan Shikai was frightened by this number, if 500,000 people were immediately sent out to fight abroad, Beiyang would not have the ability to resist after the People's Party went north.
Looking at Yuan Shikai, whose fat face trembled slightly after listening to the translation's explanation, Sir Humphrey, as the representative, did not move at all. But he was quite happy in his heart, and he had to bluff the Beiyang leader first. But Yuan Shikai's gaffe didn't last long, he quickly said: "Everyone is a little tired, let's interrupt our meeting first." ”
As a guest, Sir Humphrey could not forcibly accuse Yuan Shikai of his actions. Yuan Shikai proposed a temporary adjournment, and Sir Humphrey could only agree to a temporary adjournment. "If it was before, Yuan Shikai wouldn't dare to do this." Sir Humphrey thought regretfully in the lounge.
"Shaochuan, you also heard the British request, what should you do later?" Yuan Shikai asked Gu Weijun.
Gu Weijun was not frightened by Sir Humphrey's words at all, "President, since the British have agreed to our joining the Entente, then there are no more than two results. First, they didn't mean it, so they demanded a lot of money to force us not to agree. Second, they are ready to compromise in exchange for our support. And the request to send 500,000 troops is not a sky-high price at all in my opinion. And the army is in our hands, and Britain asked us to send half a million men, and they can drop a soldier from us? ”
Yuan Shikai just lacked experience in negotiating with a powerful country like Britain, and when he heard Gu Weijun's explanation, he couldn't help but sneer. This is not to ridicule Gu Weijun, as a person who started in the military, it is one thing to not be able to beat foreigners, let alone 500,000 troops without Yuan Shikai's consent, Yuan Shikai will definitely not let the British pull away anyone from the Beiyang Army.
With an idea, Yuan Shikai's mind immediately cleared up a lot. "Shaochuan, will the British accept our terms?"
During this period of time, Gu Weijun spent a lot of effort to draft a political reward that Beiyang would receive if he joined the Entente. When it was first presented to Yuan Shikai, Yuan Shikai looked through it and put it down lightly without saying a word. The conditions of Beiyang are simple, cancel the concession and regain sovereignty. Moreover, the Gengzi indemnity was no longer compensated in the war, and the Gengzi indemnity was officially canceled after the victory over Germany. These are the shackles that foreigners put on the neck of China's Zheng Mansion, and they are Yuan Shikai's heart disease. He simply did not think that it would be so easy to cancel it by way of a treaty agreement by joining the Entente.
But today, after listening to Sir Humphrey's words and Gu Weijun's analysis, Yuan Shikai began to feel that these conditions may not be impossible to achieve.
Before Gu Weijun participated in this meeting, his father-in-law Tang Shaoyi told him that he must not have the slightest support. After listening to Yuan Shikai's question, Gu Weijun replied: "President, although these things have to go through a series of negotiations. But the worse the situation in Britain, the sooner they will agree. This answer is already quite implicit, Gu Weijun can't say it directly, as long as it drags on, the British will definitely agree.
"Then we will agree to the terms of the British first, but first give our terms to the British." Yuan Shikai made the final decision. Thinking of the arduousness of the negotiation, Yuan Shikai sighed in his heart: "It's not easy for me to serve the country and the people." ”