538 Deficit (M)
Bai Nan has a very thorough understanding of the trend of Tang Yuan untying gold, in fact, when the Tang currency was first designed, there was already a preliminary roadmap, and when it developed to a suitable period, it would naturally be replaced by the credit currency system. Pen @ fun @ pavilion wWw. ļ½ļ½ļ½Uļ½Eć infoOn the other hand, the gold standard was difficult to maintain during World War I. Due to the rapid development of human social economy, the rapid growth rate of commodities and the increase in consumption, the mining speed of gold is becoming more and more unable to catch up. Ten years ago, Datang also had to use the way of storing gold and rationally issuing paper money to avoid the collapse of gold prices, and today, even though many gold mines in Datang are being mined at full capacity, and a large amount of gold flows into Datang's reserves every year, but with the huge economic scale of Datang, tens of thousands of tons of gold are needed to meet the growing demand for money in Datang society. Obviously, even if Datang is crazy about mining gold, it will not be able to reach an annual output of 10,000 tons. In this way, in fact, Datang is facing an objective and passive deflation in the entire economic upswing stage.
Therefore, on the one hand, Datang is facing the development pressure of insufficient funds and potential fiscal deficits, and on the other hand, Datang's gold-standard monetary policy has also directly led to the emergence of the previous situation. Although Bai Nan was born in the military, he also studied a lot of monographs in economics, and learned a lot of things, and his understanding was also very profound.
Bai Nandao: "Untying the relationship between Tang Yuan and gold and abolishing China's gold standard monetary system is an unstoppable trend, and it is a top priority task for our economic and financial sectors in the short and medium term. The use of flexible monetary policy to stimulate our fiscal policy and alleviate the problem of fiscal deficit that we may have mentioned by Governor Tian has a certain guiding role. But we are not in another plane. The context in which countries faced during the First World War. They are fighting a world war. All sides are nervous, and by suppressing the price of their own currency almost without a bottom line, they can achieve inflation, make up for the fiscal deficit, and expand the war of armaments. This is not the case with us now, we still need a stable development environment, and the internal situation is the same. Therefore, we cannot accept the emergence of large-scale inflation, which will seriously shake the confidence of our citizens in the country and the government. ā
Speaking of which, almost everyone has a bottom in their hearts, Bai Nan has just taken office. If he pursues an extremely radical economic policy as soon as he comes to power, which causes serious turmoil in the domestic economy, it will inevitably affect his prestige and future governance, so even from Bai Nam's own point of view, he will definitely not pursue the use of internal depreciation and external appreciation to solve the current dilemma.
Bai Nan continued: "After the implementation of the new monetary standard, we will calculate the amount of money and issue banknotes based on rigorous mathematical models and reasonable expectations for the economic development of our country. Slight inflation and slight deflation are both acceptable scenarios. But our government must not position itself as a money printing machine, and the central bank must be able to strictly control this. What we lack now is not liquidity, nor do we need to stimulate the economy through liquidity. duration. China's economy is still quite dependent on foreign trade exports, Tang Yuan and gold decoupling, may have a certain impact on China's foreign trade, after all, out of the precious metal standard we are the forerunner. Therefore, considering the demand of foreign traders for our currency, our financial sector also needs to further consider the mode of financial loans to stabilize the trade situation of our trading partners. ā
The new Minister of Commerce, Bu Cuixin, said: "The French Revolution still had a great impact on our largest market in Europe, and our war with Spain also caused a considerable decline in bilateral trade. Although the trade volume between Britain and China is increasing in a relatively large proportion year by year, China's trade in Europe may decline this year. Our development in the Asian market is still very stable, and the Qingguo market is growing at a very gratifying rate every year, and the profitability is also quite considerable. And we are growing in many of our overseas territories in the Far East. Several newly established countries in South America have a large number of economic and trade exchanges with us, and can be expected to become an important growth point of China's trade in the coming period. Here I would like to make a few observations. ā
Bai Nan nodded: "Please speak." ā
"As we all know, China's industrial machinery and scientific and technological level has actually been greatly improved in these years, and some of the early enterprises in China are using relatively old machinery, and even some of them are brought by us when we cross, and these equipment has actually been years before the crossing. A large number of large enterprises represented by Yingshan Iron and Steel and Anhua Chemical have plans or are upgrading some of their factory equipment, especially with the development of China's integrated circuit electronics industry, some machinery has begun to have stronger capabilities, and the production efficiency of the old machines is no longer suitable. Our domestic enterprises are facing competition with each other, so they have to change their equipment. But these devices are not necessarily completely unusable, and many will remain in service for many years. Due to many factors such as environmental standards and production efficiency, these devices will inevitably be obsolete and cannot be adopted by our other start-up companies. Therefore, we suggest that the export ban on these equipment should be lifted when it is determined that some equipment will not improve the industrial development of other countries too much, so as to promote us to cash out this batch of fixed assets and even further stimulate China's machinery export industry. ā
As soon as this proposal came out, some people objected, "Won't it improve the industrial development of other countries too much?" How is it possible, the British only a few years ago did not know where to steal the technology, and built a few blast furnaces to start ironmaking, even if it is our earlier alkaline air bottom blowing converter, for the Europeans are the same existence as black technology, can improve their industrial capacity more than one grade, we export similar technology, for our country may cause more challenges in the future. ā
However, the opinion of the proponents is also very clear: "Only when the world enters the industrial age on a large scale and enters a new social period, will there be more demand for our goods." Even if Europe and other countries have access to newer technologies, the demand for more of our machinery and other products will increase even further. Before there was no such machinery, they did not have such a demand at all, but after they have, they will seek further support, parts maintenance, subsequent processing, a series of things in the industrial chain, all need to turn to us, and this will inevitably further develop our market. (To be continued.) )