The first update

Yanayev is not unworried about the state of the Japanese economy, after all, he is the iron-clad General Secretary of the Soviet, the flowing cabinet of the Japanese Prime Minister. www.biquge.info He remembered that Ryutaro Hashimoto, the prime minister of Japan, who formed his second cabinet in 1997, decided to raise the consumption tax from 3% to 5% in order to consolidate the fiscal situation. As a result, Japan's economy fell into recession, and Hashimoto was disgraced. While this was partly due to the Asian financial crisis that erupted a few months later, the consumption tax hike also played a large role in the increase.

After Ryutaro Hashimoto stepped down, it is possible that Yanayev's previous efforts will be in vain, and everything will start with the new prime minister for a new round of negotiations. In fact, the new prime minister may not be fooled.

Yanayev could not interfere in Japan's internal affairs, so he had to finalize the business in advance. And Ryutaro Hashimoto is the key point. He was thinking about another person in Ryutaro Hashimoto's cabinet, Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi, who was on a state visit to Moscow.

Another reason why Yanayev favored Keizo Obuchi was that he succeeded Ryutaro Hashimoto as prime minister after the failure of Ryutaro Hashimoto's administrative reforms, and formed the Obuchi cabinet in 1998. Faced with the future prime minister of Japan, Yanayev believes that it is necessary to establish good relations with him now, otherwise Japan's plan to cooperate with the Soviet Union in the development of the Far East may be in vain.

It was inconvenient for Yanayev to go out in person for this kind of thing, so Shevardnadze replaced Yanayev and instilled ecstasy soup into Keizo Obuchi. Of course, the exchange was private and informal, and Yanayev did not want to attract too many people's attention.

Keizo Obuchi was a little surprised by Shevardnadze's visit. After all, it is a very rare thing for the Minister of Foreign Affairs to communicate in private.

Keizo Obuchi asked, "Is it because of the oil pipeline that Minister Shevardnadze came this time?" ”

Shevardnadze shook his head, "Not exactly, the issue of laying oil pipelines will be left to the delegation to solve, and I would like to discuss another matter with Minister Keizo Obuchi." ”

Keizo Obuchi couldn't guess the purpose of Xie Waldnadze a little, coughed lightly, and then asked, "What is the other thing?" If it's a state visit, we should do it in an official setting. ”

"If it can be done in a formal setting, we don't need to go to the trouble of running to your hotel." Shevardnadze tested Keizo Obuchi's attitude step by step, and his tone was very cautious, "Because this is a matter of partners in the Far East's large-scale opening project, we think we should first probe the other party's opinion." ”

The expression on Keizo Obuchi's face was disappearing little by little, because the Far East development project mentioned by Shevardnadze was exactly what Japan had repeatedly considered before. The unexploited gas, oil of the USSR in the Far East was something they coveted.

Once it is possible to open an oil pipeline project from the Soviet Union to Japan, it will be much cheaper to transport gas by pipeline than Japan now uses liquefied gas to import by ship. If pipeline transportation can be realized, the cost of importing liquefied gas from Japan will be greatly reduced. Natural gas is one of the fuels for power generation in Japan, and Japan is now mainly using the method of liquefiing natural gas and importing it. However, the liquefaction input method requires large equipment and dedicated vessels, which is costly. As a result, the price of liquefied gas imports in Japan is more than 50% higher than that imported by pipeline in European countries. If Japan were to bring its import prices down to European levels, it would have paid more than 500 billion yen less based on its 1997 import volume.

This is undoubtedly good news for Japan.

Shevardnadze first put forward a proposal, "In the future, if we consider the actual situation, we can build a gas pipeline from Sakhalin Oblast to Hokkaido, Japan, so that Japan can save a lot of money to pay for imported natural gas." ”

According to the top management of the Japanese partner of the Soviet gas industry, the Japanese partner of the Soviet gas industry, the construction of a pipeline from South Sakhalin to Hokkaido is feasible and economically justified. Nesterov, an expert in Soviet economics, believes that Japan is the world's largest consumer of natural gas, and the price paid by Japan to Russian gas is much higher than that paid by European countries to the Soviet Union, so the Soviet Union naturally hopes to increase gas supply to Japan, but it is more beneficial to the Soviet Union to increase the gas transmission capacity of the Sakhalin project in the oil and gas field and the supply of liquefied gas, which can increase the flexibility of Russian sales.

Dmitry Lyukyakin, an independent Soviet analyst, said the project made sense from an economic point of view. Japan's energy shortages are inevitable and require more oil and gas imports.

"That's a critical question." Keizo Obuchi sighed. At present, Japan is facing a situation in which the Japanese economy is in trouble, and if the situation can be opened up with the help of the Soviet Union's energy projects, the Japanese government will be able to greatly reduce its burden.

Seeing that Keizo Obuchi was beginning to be interested, Shevardnadze began to strike while the iron was hot, "And in the negotiations held at various levels between Japan and the Soviet Union, the issue of building natural pipelines has been raised many times, but each time there have been political obstacles. Due to territorial disputes, the Japanese government did not allow investors to cooperate with the Soviet Union on costly projects, such as the construction of oil pipelines. Japan is very close to Hazarin, which is rich in natural gas. If it is transported by pipeline, it is much cheaper than using liquefaction technology. ”

When it comes to political issues, Keizo Obuchi didn't understand what Shevardnadze was trying to say, "I don't understand what this sentence means. ”

"Abandon our political prejudices, put aside disputes, and develop together. If Japan is willing to join the Far East Development Program and become a partner, then we are willing to provide Japan with the greatest benefits. That's why I went to Minister Keizo Obuchi in private. ”

After going around in circles, Shevardnadze finally got to the crux of the matter. He told Obuchi that he was here in need of a partner, and that Japan would be the Soviet Union's preferred target.

"I see." Keizo Obuchi nodded, although he had reached the age of sixty-three, but in terms of political knowledge, Keizo Obuchi may be far less far-reaching than Shevardnadze, who was close to fifteen years old with him.

"So you're hoping that I'll be able to breathe through Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto?" Keizo Obuchi didn't say anything, he was testing Shevardnadze's attitude.

"It's not about talking to Ryutaro Hashimoto, it's about mentioning this project to Minister Keizo Obuchi." Shevardnadze whispered, "And now the Japanese government is trying its best to adjust the consumption tax, isn't it?" ”

Keizo Obuchi's eyelids finally jumped, and he was no longer listless listening to Shevardnadze say yes or no, this was the first time he had looked at a large number of young people in front of him.

The gaze is sly and witty.

"From the late 1970s, consumption tax was the most popular issue in Japanese politics. In 1978, then Prime Minister Masahiro Ohira first proposed the idea of a "consumption tax". However, due to the LDP's defeat in the election, it had to be cancelled. In 1986, Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone changed the name to Selling the Tax and put forward the idea again, but it was unsuccessful. In 1988, Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita realized the concept of a consumption tax, which was implemented the following year. ”

"I know that the Japanese government's recent fiscal situation is not optimistic, but have you ever thought that the Japanese economy is currently in a period of weakness, and if the consumption tax is adjusted, it may lead to a decline in consumption......

Even if he told Keizo Obuchi that there would be an Asian financial crisis next, the other party would not believe it.

"Trust me, Minister Shevardnadze." Keizo Obuchi said coldly, "We know Japan's problems best, and we don't need your guidance." ”

"Then please also ask Minister Keizo Obuchi to remember what I said today, maybe you will regret it in a few months." Shevardnadze said with a smile.

When Japan had nothing else to do, it would come back to the Soviet Union, and the initiative in negotiations would be in Moscow's hands. (To be continued.) )