Yuanqing's trip to New Delhi attracted much attention. Everyone knows that Pakistan is built entirely on an alliance with the Republic and will not "arbitrarily assert" itself on South Asian issues involving the fundamental interests of the Republic, and whether or not the head of state of the Republic can reach a "consensus" with the Indian Prime Minister in New Delhi will determine the direction of the development of the situation in South Asia.

Japan is more concerned about the Republic's relations with India than other countries.

On the afternoon of 0 October, 30 New Delhi time, the spokesperson of the Prime Minister of India held a press conference to announce the news of the official meeting between the head of state of the Republic and the Prime Minister of India.

About one hour later, Jiao Shan, chief assistant to the head of state who accompanied Wang Yuanqing on his visit to New Delhi, was interviewed by reporters at the PRC's embassy in New Delhi, where he answered several important questions, including the "southern Tibet issue" and the "Kashmir conflict," and said that the PRA would try its best to resolve the contradictions between India and Pakistan.

At 22 o'clock Tokyo time, Murakami Sadashi was holding a plenary meeting of the Cabinet and the Ministry of Military Affairs at the Prime Minister's Office.

As usual, Mura did not rush to speak, allowing cabinet officials and military generals to take the lead in "speaking freely". Ryohei Tani, who attended the meeting, has also remained silent, and there is no need to argue with officials and generals on some details when the prime minister does not need to listen to the briefing.

What the hell is going on, the participants are very clear.

Although neither the spokesman of the Indian General Government nor the principal assistant to the head of state of the Republic gave an explanation of the meeting between Wang Yuanqing and Rurajapani, judging from the information released by the two sides, there are serious differences between the two sides on the most fundamental issue and the main issue of consultation at the meeting. Wang Yuanqing is more concerned about the "southern Tibet issue" and hopes that India will make substantive concessions and show sufficient sincerity in the negotiations to resolve the border dispute. Rurajapani focused on the "Kashmir conflict" in the hope that China could exert influence on Pakistan and ease the conflict between India and Pakistan.

If we haven't figured out anything in the end, can we still talk about the results?

The attitude of the two sides is a very direct reflection of the current situation in South Asia.

According to the analysis of Foreign Minister Kitayama Shikawachi. Wang Yuan wanted to use the "Kashmir conflict" to force India to make concessions on the "southern Tibet issue". Rurajapani intends to use the "South Tibet issue" to get China to make a positive contribution to the "Kashmir conflict". Both sides want to take advantage of the land cards in their hands. maximizing the realization of national interests; And don't want to lose any trump card, the other party gets the benefits. In this case. Wang Yuanqing's meeting with Rurajapani will not produce anything.

No one objected to the Kita-Shikawa analysis. This is indeed the case.

The key question is: Will Rurajapani's attitude have a key impact on Wang Yuanqingdi's trip to Islamabad?

In other words, India is unwilling to make concessions on the "southern Tibet issue". Will it make Wang Yuanqing completely lose confidence in Rurajapani? In Islamabad, Pakistan was encouraged to expand the scale of the conflict, and the conflict turned into war. So as to recover southern Tibet through military operations?

For Japan. This question is very critical.

The point of contention is not whether war will break out. It's about when the war broke out.

Everyone, including Gu Shuliangping, believed that as long as Wang Yuanqing believed that it was impossible to recover southern Tibet through negotiations, China would start a war before India's military strength was further strengthened, or Pakistan would start a war and send troops to recover southern Tibet.

It's just that no one dared to draw conclusions before Murakami Sadamasa made a statement.

Tani knew what Murakami was worried about.

Although there is sufficient intelligence to prove that China is preparing to send troops to South Asia, such as the 15th Airborne Army stationed in Chengdu, the Airborne 16th Army stationed in Kunming, the Airborne 17th Army stationed in Hotan, and the 27th Army stationed in **, and the tactical fighter jets deployed in southwest China have increased by nearly 50%, and the Chinese Air Force's reconnaissance activities in the Brahmaputra River Valley and the Pamir Plateau have become more frequent, the Chinese Navy has concentrated three aircraft carrier battle groups and long-range patrol aircraft in the South China Sea to fly to the Tamelan Islands (located between the Malay Peninsula and Kalimantan, Patrols in the waters south of the eastern part of the Strait of Malacca, and frequent reconnaissance missions by the fleet and air force stationed in Pakistan into India's territorial waters. However, these signs do not fully explain the problem, and the movement of the air force and navy does not take much time: the fleet operating in the South China Sea can enter the East China Sea and the western Pacific within a few days, and the air forces deployed in the southwest and northwest regions can reach the eastern region within a few days. Among the ground forces, except for the 27th Army, which takes about half a month to complete the transfer, the other three airborne corps can transfer thousands of kilometers within an hour to the eastern region to carry out combat missions.

In other words, China's military deployment is not "informative".

According to Taniki Ryohei's guess, Murakami is worried that China's military deployment is just a show, not to deal with India, but to paralyze Japan, think that China is about to go to war with India, and thus take drastic actions in Taiwan, and provide a reason for China to declare war on Japan.

In fact, Murakami is really worried about this problem.

Although Wang Yuanqing was invited to visit five South Asian countries, the date of his visit was set before the outbreak of the "Kashmir conflict."

It was Murakami Sadamasa who was not confused by superficial phenomena and was more concerned about internal factors.

For China, achieving national reunification is not only a top priority, but there is no reason to exacerbate the contradictions between India and Pakistan at a time when the situation on the island is in turmoil. If Murakami is in Wang Yuanqing's position, he must first stabilize the situation on the island and prevent foreign forces from intervening, and then he will take action in other directions. To this end, it is necessary to first exert pressure on India and Pakistan to defuse the conflict between India and Pakistan. With China's influence on India and Pakistan, it is not difficult to resolve the conflict between India and Pakistan, as long as Wang Yuanqing expresses his stance and gives India a step down and Pakistan can rein in some restraint, the "artillery battle at the Bernihal Pass" can be stopped immediately.

Instead of actively defusing the conflict between India and Pakistan, Wang Yuanqing took the opportunity to make a fuss about the "southern Tibet issue," which was very abnormal.

It's just that Murakami Sadamasa can't be completely sure of Wang Yuanqing's strategy.

Compared with his predecessor, Zhao Rundong, Wang Yuanqing is more proactive in foreign policy, but because he has only been in power for a few months, the basic strategy pursued by Wang Yuanqing is still unclear. Murakami Sadamasa will not forget one point, that is, Wang Yuanqing has won the true biography of Ji Youguo. In terms of personal ability, Ji Youguo is certainly one of the most outstanding heads of state of the Republic. Even if Wang Yuanqing only inherited half of Ji Youguo's personal ability, he could make any opponent timid.

The question is, what does Yuan Qing want to do?

Will we use the crisis in South Asia to complete peace one, or will we use the turmoil on the island to regain southern Tibet?

If you guess Wang Yuanqing's thoughts according to the usual point of view, you will definitely be very wrong.

If Wang Yuanqing only wants to recover southern Tibet, even if he needs to help Pakistan occupy the entire Kashmir, 3 airborne troops and 1 armored army are enough to defeat India within 1 month and complete all combat operations.

1, no matter how turbulent the situation on the island is, it will not throw up big storms.

From this point of view, it is very likely that Wang Yuanqing will put the "Southern Tibet Question" in the front, and after stabilizing South Asia, he will free up his hands to solve the Taiwan issue.

Seeing the situation clearly is not to find a solution.

From Murakami's point of view, Japan has no choice, not even room to turn around.

With India's general election just around the corner, it is unlikely that Rurajapani will make substantial concessions on the "southern Tibet issue" or even make any major commitments. If the Congress Party loses the election and the BJP comes to power, India will not be able to pose a threat to China in the next 20 years, let alone form an alliance with Japan to jointly deal with China. In the long run, it is indeed possible for Wang Yuanqing to take this step, and the easiest way is to defeat India on the battlefield and make Rurajapani's "economic priority policy" completely defeated.

India was defeated, and Japan would be the biggest victim.

Without the threat from South Asia, China can concentrate its efforts on dealing with Japan and resolving the Taiwan issue.

To solve the Taiwan issue, we must first eliminate the external influence of the authorities on the island to get rid of the control of the mainland, and the United States can abandon even South Korea, and it is impossible to start a war between Taiwan and China. In this way, Japan has become the only obstacle to China's settlement of the Taiwan issue. Wang Yuanqing will certainly give priority to dealing with Japan, and by striking at Japan, the authorities on the island will lose the initiative and complete peaceful reunification only a matter of time.

This is certainly the last thing Murakami wants to see.

The only way to resolve it is to help India weather the storm and prevent China from waging war against India, while making India a threat to China. To achieve this, it is necessary to create problems for China in other directions, forcing China to transfer its main forces to other locations. The only way to achieve this goal is to create greater turmoil in Taiwan, and even let Taiwan take a key step in the direction of the first place. In this way, Japan must do something.

To make a difference, you have to take the risk of war with China.

Murakami is facing a deadlock that will be difficult to resolve, because after coming to power in 29 years, all of Murakami's strategies are to try to avoid a war with China. No matter how the generals of the military department swore that they would be able to defeat China in the war, Murakami Sadamasa would not rashly take a crucial step. Before we have the ability to destroy China, going to war with China is just self-defeating!

The discussion continued into the middle of the night and still no conclusion was reached.

At the end of the meeting, Tani Ryohei paid special attention to the prime minister, but Murakami Sadamasa did not let him stay.

As always, when cabinet officials and military generals advocated action, Murakami remained silent. Only one thing is certain, Murakami Sadamasa cannot remain silent all the time.

After leaving the Prime Minister's Office, Tani first returned to the headquarters of the National Security Agency.

According to Tani Ryohei's understanding, Murakami Sadamasa had already made a decision, or rather, he had to make a decision when he had no choice, but he was not in a hurry to announce it.

Before going home to rest, Tani went to the bar for a drink.

In any case, the information must be sent out as soon as possible!