The thunderous ground offensive demonstrated the strength of the US military and also brought it out

Khuzestan Province, located in the valley of the two river basins, is the most geographically located province in Iran, except for the Zagros Mountains in the northeast, more than 90% of the province is in the low-altitude, flat terrain, easy to attack and difficult to defend the alluvial plain of the two rivers, which has always been Iran's defense powerhouse......

During the Iran-Iraq war, Khuzestan province was not only a key contested area for both sides, but was also repeatedly captured by Iraqi forces.

Before the outbreak of the war, the Republic and Russia repeatedly "warned" Iran that the US military would not only attack Khuzestan Province, but also use Khuzestan Province as the main battlefield.

Accordingly, Iran adjusted its defensive deployment, committing nearly a third of its ground forces in the province of Khuzestan .

Herein lies the problem. Iran was determined to hold on to the province of Khuzestan but did not do so. In fact, no matter how many ground troops Iran invests, it will not be able to hold the province of Khuzestan Province.

According to a report submitted by the Military Intelligence Agency after the war, before the outbreak of the war, the Iranian top brass hoped to inflict heavy losses on the US military in the ground fighting in Khuzestan Province, deplete a large number of US military vitality, and eventually force the withdrawal of US troops from Khuzestan Province. In order to achieve this goal, Iran has drawn up a fairly tight urban defense plan, preparing to block the US military in large and medium-sized cities such as Ahvaz, Abadan, Khoram Shahr, and Khomeini Port, and defeat the US army in urban warfare.

The idea was good, but the result was very bad.

There are many reasons why Iran has failed to achieve its goals, but there are two main ones.

First, preparations for war are very inadequate, leaving Iran with a rather limited amount of time to prepare. After the outbreak of the war, the large-scale bombing by the US military severely limited the movement and deployment of Iranian troops, resulting in a lack of all kinds of materials for the Iranian troops stationed in various cities. After the ground fighting began, Iran had no time to provide assistance to the troops stationed in various places.

Second, the US military's urban warfare capability has been greatly enhanced. On the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. military has been honed for more than a decade. Summing up a number of urban warfare tactics. A large number of weapons and equipment specifically for urban battlefield use have been developed. In the battle against the land of Abadan. The 1st Panzer Division demonstrated a very strong combat capability. This was followed by the assault on Ahvaz Land. The 1st Panzer Division again became the main force. It is not unrelated to its strong urban warfare capabilities.

Overall. By making the mistake of underestimating its opponents, Iran is underestimating its opponents.

If Iran accurately judges the strength of the US military. Not only will the main forces not be placed in the province of Khuzestan . It is also necessary to be mentally prepared for a long-term war.

At the end of the 7-day ground battle. A very serious problem lies ahead of Iran.

After the loss of almost a third of the ground forces (almost all of them were the main forces of the front). What does Iran take to hold the second line of defense. And the vast depths?

The same problem is facing the US military.

If the iron is struck while the iron is hot, it is enough to be sure that it will attack the Zagros Mountains and enter the Iranian hinterland at a lower cost, and overthrow the Iranian regime. If they do not move forward, they will face the Iranian "guerrillas" in the province of Khuzestan Province, and the war will drag on for a long time, and finally be in a dilemma.

Without a choice, Iran can only fight a guerrilla war with the US military.

On 12 May, the day after the fall of Ahvaz, several guerrilla detachments adapted from regular units of the Revolutionary Guards entered Khuzestan province through mountain paths. In accordance with the instructions given by Iran's Supreme Spiritual Leader, the Revolutionary Guards will send 150,000 guerrillas into the province of Khuzestan Province, as will the Iranian Army

Five infantry divisions will be reorganized into guerrilla units and sent to Khuzestan province, and 10,000 guerrillas will be organized among Iranians throughout Khuzestan province.

The US troops armed to the teeth cannot be defeated on the frontal battlefield, and the US troops may not be defeated on the guerrilla battlefield.

At the very least, the U.S. military has so far not been able to sum up effective tactics against the guerrillas. Neither in Iraq nor in Afghanistan, the U.S. military has been able to exterminate the guerrillas.

Iran has sacrificed "guerrilla warfare", and the US military has even more problems.

Khuzestan is the second most populous province in Iran after Tehran, with a total population of nearly 3 million inhabitants. While about the inhabitants are Sunnis, the remaining 60 percent are Shiites. Under these circumstances, the cost of the US occupation of Khuzestan Province will not be small.

According to a pre-war analysis by the Rand Corporation, the U.S. military would commit at least 150,000 ground troops to Khuzestan province.

The reality is perhaps even worse. Even if the US military invests 150,000 ground troops to occupy the province of Khuzestan, it will be difficult to complete the combat operation to capture Tehran with only 1 ground force remaining.

The shortage of troops is still a secondary problem, and with the mobilization mechanism of the United States, it is very likely that more than 10,000 ground troops will be put into the final operation.

The key question is whether the US military can afford the huge casualties that followed the capture of Khuzestan province.

In the first three years of the Iraq War, the U.S. military paid a total of ground costs for the death of many officers and soldiers. And compared with Iran, Iraq can be regarded as a "paradise" for the US military.

At the beginning, the U.S. military overthrew the central government in Iraq in one fell swoop, dealing with extremist groups and rabble. Iran's central power is still standing in Tehran, and both the president and the supreme leader have a strong appeal. Iraq's ethnic composition and beliefs are very complex, divided into Kurd, Shia, and Sunni forces, and the U.S. military can support one of these forces against the other two forces to reduce its own pressure. Iran does not have such a complex ethnic component

25% are Azerbaijanis, only 7% are Kurds, and only 7% are Yepis and Sunnis. Most of Iraq is plains and deserts, suitable for mechanized forces. Most of Iran is a plateau and mountainous terrain, which is not suitable for mechanized forces.

Many factors determine that it is difficult for the US military to have a good "result" in Iran.

In the analysis report submitted by the Rand Corporation, it is estimated that the US military will suffer 2,000 casualties in the first month after occupying Khuzestan Province, 5,000 casualties in six months, 8,000 casualties in one year, and 150 casualties in three years.

Obviously, this assessment is very "conservative".

Before the U.S. occupation of Ahvaz, more than 5,000 people were killed or wounded (including more than 2,000 killed and men).

Later, the Rand Corporation adjusted the assessment results and raised the number of US military casualties in a year to 25,000, an increase of more than 2 times from the previous one!

If this were the case, it would be impossible for the US military to achieve a final victory in the war.

In the 20th century and 670s, in the context of the Cold War, the US military had to withdraw from Vietnam after killing more than 50,000 officers and soldiers. At this point, if the number of U.S. military casualties exceeds 5c in a year, I'm afraid the U.S. government will have to consider withdrawing troops from Iran.

It can be seen from this that the only way for Iran to "defeat" the United States is to kill and injure a large number of US military forces.

This was also the starting point for the Republic and Russia to suggest that Iran weaken the defenses of Khuzestan Province and prepare for a long war.

Not to mention Iran, even the Republic or Russia will find it difficult to defeat the US military on a frontal battlefield.

Iran's Supreme Spiritual Leader called for a "guerrilla war for all," indicating that Iran had corrected its initial strategic mistakes by adopting the Republic-Russia proposals.

It can be said that it was only after Iran paid a very heavy price that this belated strategic change was born.

By May 11, Iran had lost not only nearly one-third of its ground forces, but also 55 percent of its army (including the Revolutionary Guards) tanks, 50 percent of its armored fighting vehicles, 6 percent of its self-propelled artillery and rocket artillery, and 70 percent of its mobile air defense systems and military vehicles. All the losses combined, the total value is more than yuan, which is the entire accumulation of the Iranian Army and Revolutionary Guards in the past 1c years!

The only thing that Iran's leaders can be thankful for is that Iran is not Iraq.

Before the outbreak of the war, many people predicted that the United States would not be able to achieve a final victory in the war. Whether they are driven out of Iran by Iranian troops or voluntarily withdrawn from Iran, the US military will eventually have to leave Iran and admit defeat.

For both warring parties, it will only take time for them to win and who will lose.

With the end of the ground war, anti-war sentiment in the United States has also reached **. The sheer casualty figures and war losses have left many Americans disappointed with the U.S. government and president.

The only consolation for Frederick was that the arms and energy conglomerates had already benefited enormously from the war, and the financial conglomerates had also become beneficiaries.

On May 12, U.S. Secretary of Defense Berkeley announced the "20177 Supplementary Military Budget."

According to the Ministry of National Defense's estimates, the United States will pay an additional military budget of 5,500 yuan for the war this year, of which about 3,000 yuan will be used to purchase weapons, equipment, ammunition and materials, additional personnel expenses, military scientific research, and 350 yuan will be used for new equipment research and development projects.

It is a very rich "feast", but it is not the last "feast".

According to NN TV's estimates, the U.S. government will eventually spend $800 billion on the war in 2017, of which the procurement cost alone will be high! Al Jazeera believes that the additional war costs of the United States in 201 will exceed 1 trillion US dollars, of which the procurement cost will be between 6,000 and 6,500 yuan.

Whether it is a "conservative" estimate or an "optimistic" estimate, Frederick has achieved his goal of burning money.

At the time Berkeley announced the military budget increase, Frederick met with Fed Chairman Byrne to determine the details of the Fed's purchase of state government bonds.

This is not the last time the Fed will "bail out" the federal government.

According to the most optimistic estimates, the Fed will buy at least $2.7 trillion in federal government bonds in 20177.

If so, no one can stop the rapid depreciation of the dollar!

As soon as the news broke, oil futures immediately soared, gold immediately soared, and eventually even stocks on the three major New York stock exchanges began to rise sharply, because the vast majority of investors will not pinch the dollar that is about to depreciate, but exchange their cash for commodities and financial products as soon as possible.

It seems that the United States has overcome the financial crisis.

Whether this is the case, I am afraid that few people are optimistic about the US economy.

As the saying goes, "Come out and mix, sooner or later you have to pay it back".

The United States will inevitably "repay" the huge debt owed to the United States by issuing more currency, burning money on the battlefield, and forcing the dollar to depreciate.

When problems erupt, that's when disaster strikes! (To be continued)

Starting