Chapter 43: Clues
Before Huang Guowei returned to Beijing, Ji Youguo met separately with Russian Foreign Minister Tiyukov, who had made a special trip......
Five years ago, the Giyo Congress was worried about Russian influence.
Now, Ji Youguo only needs to take care of Russia's feelings.
In the past five years, trade between China and Russia has nearly tripled, from less than $60 billion in 2009 to $230 billion in 2014. Last year, China's exports to Russia amounted to $96.7 billion, and imports from Russia amounted to $134.2 billion, with a deficit of nearly $40 billion.
On the surface, Russia has taken advantage of Sino-Russian trade, but in reality the problem should be looked at the other way around.
Without the tens of billions of dollars it receives from China every year, it would be difficult for the Russian economy to get out of its predicament, not only will it not be able to achieve an average annual growth rate of 4.5 percent, but it will also fall into a long-term recession. China mainly imports raw materials such as oil, natural gas, ore, and timber from Russia, and exports mainly industrial products such as electric vehicles, industrial machinery, and electronic equipment to Russia.
The huge amount of bilateral trade makes Russia have to care about China's attitude.
During the same period, not only did the total trade between India and Russia plummet, but even the arms trade, which had always been popular, was affected. Five years ago, India was Russia's largest arms importer. Because Russia has stalled in arms research and development, and because the two sides have made trouble in renovating the "Vikramaditya" aircraft carrier, India has gradually changed its arms import policy, replaced simplification with diversification, and made efforts to obtain weapons and equipment from other countries, such as Israel, France, Germany, and even the United States, and no longer completely dependent on Russia.
In the face of this change, Russia's attitude towards China and India has also undergone subtle changes.
For example, when the "Future Tactical Aviation Aircraft System" was developed, that is, PAKFA, Russia wanted to pull China into the group because of the lack of research and development funds, but it turned out to turn China away under India's opposition. Three years ago, Russia launched the "Future Heavy Air Supremacy Fighter" research and development program, not only seeking cooperation with China first, but also excluding India from the threshold of joint development, forcing India to seek air supremacy fighters from the West.
As Sino-Russian relations warm up again, China will definitely have to take care of Russia's feelings. Otherwise, after Russia voted against it in the Security Council, Huang Guowei would not have gotten off the slope and did not put forward a motion for the United Nations to condemn India.
From Tiyukovna. Ji Youguo figured out Russia's attitude.
No matter what the outcome is. As long as it does not harm Russia's territorial interests. Russia will not intervene.
After sending away Tiyukov. Ji Youguo asked Wang Yuanqing to go to the airport to pick up Huang Guowei.
"The U.S. is very clear." Huang Guowei cheered up. On the way home. He had been thinking about how to report to the FΓΌhrer. "The United States hopes that we can do more to urge a ceasefire between India and Pakistan. They did not give any substantive assurances. β
"Three knives on both sides." Ji Youguo smiled faintly. "It's like the war on terror. All the United States cares about is its interests. β
"These. We've thought about it for a long time. Huang Guowei picked up the water glass. Britain and France also favored the United States. I don't think we should provide assistance to Pakistan. β
"Britain and France are just American henchmen, there is nothing to talk about."
"Russia's attitude was originally tough, and after voting a veto, it no longer expressed its opinion." Huang Guowei smiled and shook his head, "I don't know what kind of medicine they sell in their gourd." β
"I just met with Tiyukov and talked with him for more than two hours."
"Is there a catch?" Huang Guowei put down the water glass.
"What else can you want but to save face?" Ji Youguo handed a cigarette to the foreign minister. "Tiyukov made a special visit in the hope that we would not overdo it, just teach India a lesson, and not let the situation escalate. To put it bluntly, it is the fear that the war will harm Russia's interests. β
"They didn't go to war, what's the impact?"
"Russia did not enter the war, but Russian-made weapons are the protagonists on the battlefield. After this war, I am afraid that no country will buy Russian weapons and equipment. β
Huang Guowei was stunned for a moment, and then smiled bitterly.
In addition to oil, natural gas and other energy and industrial raw materials, arms are Russia's main export commodity. Last year, Russia overtook Britain to once again become the second largest arms exporter after the United States. If the arms are not sold, it will cost Russia billions of dollars every year.
"Do you want to have a good talk with Russia?"
"What is there to talk about?" Ji Youguo glanced at the cautious foreign minister, "What is the level of Russia's weapons and equipment, they know best." Forty years ago, dozens of models of fighter aircraft were changed over and over again, and hundreds of them were sold in different ways. At the beginning, we proposed upgrading, but Russia was not very happy. Besides, India's defeat was not only a matter of weapons and equipment, but also of the quality of personnel. At the level of the Indian Air Force, even if it is equipped with advanced fighters provided by the United States, the results will not be much better. β
"The problem is that Russia has close relations with us, and if it gets into a stalemate, it will not be easy to get along in the future."
"You don't have to worry about it, when it really comes to burning your ass, the Russian president will look for me and won't trouble you."
Huang Guowei sighed secretly, he, the foreign minister, really doesn't have much right to speak.
"Tell me about your meeting with Lynch alone, he won't just invite you for coffee, will he?"
"Instant coffee in the U.S. Secretary of State's office is really not good." Huang Guowei immediately laughed, "However, Lynch is really difficult to deal with. β
"Yes! It was Santos, whom he had gone to meet, that pushed India into the fire pit. β
"Overall, Lynch hopes we'll be able to rein in."
"Convergence?" Ji Youguo immediately frowned, "Could it be that the United States can indulge?" β
"That's not what it means." Huang Guowei extinguished the cigarette butt, "What he means is that if we relent, the United States will also consider the interests of China and Pakistan on the issue of aiding India." β
"What do you mean? Could it be that the United States is ready to 'divest'? β
Huang Guowei shook his head. "That's what it means, but I don't think the problem can be seen that way."
Ji Youguo touched his chin, he felt the same way.
"Listening to Lynch's tone, this matter is not up to him, he is only negotiating with me on behalf of the president, or rather, he wants me to bring you the words."
"Japell must be engaged in some kind of conspiracy." Ji Youguo stood up and walked back and forth in front of Huang Guowei a few times, "During the meeting, what did he also reveal?" β
"Specifically, Lynch's mouth was tight, and I tentatively mentioned a few key issues, and he avoided them."
"Then he really can't be the master." Ji Youguo nodded slightly, "In what areas does he want us to reduce aid to Pakistan?" β
"Mainly personnel, it is hoped that we will withdraw the military personnel who are fighting in Pakistan."
Hearing this, Ji Youguo stopped, his eyes stayed on Huang Guowei for a few seconds, and then he laughed.
"FΓΌhrer, are you ......"
"It's called throwing stones and asking for directions." Ji Youguo sat down, "Lynch asked this question because he wanted to know how many fighters we have put in Pakistan. How did you answer him at the time? β
"According to the script, it is a diplomatic routine anyway."
"Didn't leak anything?"
"Of course not, I really don't know how many people went to Pakistan, what is there to leak?"
Ji Youguo was stunned for a moment, then asked with a smile: "Xiao Huang, you're not complaining about me, are you?" β
"FΓΌhrer, I didn't say that. In fact, I know that you don't let me participate because you want me to behave more naturally in diplomatic situations, so as not to leak the secrets. β
"It's good to understand, I didn't mean to exclude you from the decision-making circle, otherwise I wouldn't have let you go to the United Nations."
Huang Guowei nodded, he knew Ji Youguo's character very well, and he believed in Ji Youguo's decision-making ability.
"Although you didn't reach a deal of great value, you have gained a lot this time. At least let me know......" Ji Youguo suddenly stopped, pondered for a moment, and then he changed his mouth and said, "Do you think that in addition to deliberately testing our details, Lynch is also testing our attitude?" β
"Attitude? What attitude? β
"If the United States sends fighters to India, what will we do?"
"You mean......" Huang Guowei was taken aback, "Lynch came to me to talk about this because I wanted to know if we would react strongly to the United States sending fighters to India?" β
Ji Youguo nodded slightly. Why else would he deliberately mention it? It is no secret that we send fighters to Pakistan and it has been announced for a long time. The U.S. intelligence system is not a wine bag, and even if we can't figure out the scale of the aid, it should be on the Pakistani side. If Lynch really wants us to withdraw our fighters from Pakistan, he should put pressure on us, not test our bottom line. β
"yes, I really didn't expect that."
"By doing so, he shows that the United States is ready, and has even sent fighters, to India."
"Will the United States go to war? Judging by the current situation, the dispatch of US troops will only lead to an increase in the scale of the war and a direct confrontation with us. This is completely not in the interests of the United States, and Japel will not be stupid to such an extent. β
"I know this, if the United States really wanted to win this war for India, it would have done it a long time ago, and it would not have been delayed until now."
"What the United States has to do may only be to send a small combat force to India."
Ji Youguo nodded and said: "The problem is that the American GIs are not Rambo in the movie, and only sending a small force of combat forces, even if they are all special forces, they can't turn the tide of the war." The United States did not do this to help India win the war, but for another purpose. β
Huang Guowei immediately frowned, and for a moment, he couldn't think of what kind of purpose the United States would have.
After pondering for a while, Ji Youguo went to pick up the phone microphone and dialed the number of the General Staff.
It is useless to speculate, if we can catch the US GIs on the battlefield of India and Pakistan, we will not only be able to understand the purpose of the United States, but also be able to seize the handle of the United States and prepare a trump card for the subsequent negotiations