Rumors that the US military will launch a ground offensive ahead of schedule are not self-evident

Until 5 May, the US ground forces assembled in the Iran-Iraq border area still did not advance into Iranian territory, and there was no head-on battle between the US and Iranian ground forces, except for a special operation to rescue the parachuted pilot.

From April 27 to May 5, the U.S. military bombed Iranian tactical military targets.

In addition to the loss of 16 combat aircraft on the 27th; On the 28th, the U.S. military dispatched 2,322 combat planes and lost 22, reaching the highest point since the start of the war, and on the 29th, the U.S. military adjusted the GPS navigation system and used GPS guided munitions on a large scale again, making 132 sorties of combat aircraft and losing 3 aircraft; On the 30th, the U.S. military expanded the scale of bombing, dispatching 2,432 combat aircraft, reaching the highest peak since the start of the war, and finally losing only 4 combat aircraft; On May 1, Iran began using an improved GPS jamming system, and the U.S. military lost 19 combat aircraft in 20,811 sorties; On the 2nd, the U.S. military reduced the scale of its bombing, dispatching only 982 combat planes and losing 11 aircraft, and the battle loss rate reached the highest point since the start of the war. On the 3rd, the U.S. military adjusted its tactics and targets, dispatched 1,328 combat aircraft, and lost 8 aircraft; , the US military once again adjusted its strike tactics, dispatched 1,288 combat aircraft, and lost 9 aircraft.

So far, the US military has made a total of 16,328 sorties of combat aircraft, losing 1 combat aircraft and a battle loss rate.

Rather than sporadic results, statistics are more convincing.

Compared with all the regional wars after World War II, the US military's combat loss rate this time is the highest. In the Vietnam War, the combat loss rate of the US Air Force (including naval aviation, excluding helicopters) was less than C4%, and the loss rate in the Gulf War was less than C4%. According to the standards set by the US military, if the combat losses exceed 5 percent, it not only indicates that there is a problem in tactics and technology, but also shows that the enemy is strong enough.

A closer look at the losses of the US military shows that the main problem of the US military is "the lack of advanced fighters."

Of the 1 combat aircraft lost, in addition to the B-2, which was called the "Texas Ghost", the other 1C1 was all fighters, of which 3 were F-35, F-35C, 2F-35B, the remaining 92 were third-generation fighters, and the F-22 did not lose a single one.

From April 30, the F-22A took part in bombing operations.

Losses were 9 F-35. At least 2 were shot down because of a malfunction. 3 was shot down by a mobile anti-aircraft gun while performing a close-range strike mission. Only shot down by anti-aircraft missiles.

Thus. The fourth-generation fighter jet of the US military is indeed very advanced.

In the words of the US Air Force's later summary. The main reason for the heavy losses of the US military is that the Democratic Party has cut its spending several times during the administration. As a result, the number of F-22 ground equipment is far from meeting the air force's ground combat requirements. The production schedule of the F-35 series of fighters has been delayed again and again.

If the total production of the F-22 is not 136 aircraft. Rather, the Air Force demanded 327 aircraft.

If the date of entry into production of the F-35 is not 2015. Rather, it was originally determined in 20133.

By the time the U.S.-Iraq war broke out. The U.S. Air Force not only has more F-22s available for long-range interdiction strike missions. It is also possible to replace a large number of old F-166 and F/A-18 with F-35 bucket fighters. It is not so necessary to let these long-standing third-generation fighters go on "adventures".

Although this statement is a bit biased, it also reflects the problems of the US military from one angle.

When the US-Iraq war broke out, the US military put into service only 22A, and less than 200 F-35 series fighters. By May 1, the U.S. military had deployed additional 20F-22 and 120F-35 series fighters. Even so, in addition to the F/A-18E/F, the main strike mission is still the fighter that participated in the Gulf War in the 20th and 90th centuries.

After nearly 30 years, the original "Air King" has begun to decay.

Taking the F-15E as an example, during the Gulf War and even later during the Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan wars, not a single plane was shot down by the enemy's ground air defense system. And in this war, in the first 9 days, the 24F-15E that participated in the war was knocked out by 6!

The price is paid, and there is naturally a gain.

After eight days of full-scale tactical bombardment, Iran's five army divisions and three Revolutionary Guard divisions deployed in Khuzestan province were almost blown to empty shelves by the US military.

According to the results announced by the US military, excluding fixed targets, the US military destroyed 673 tanks, armored vehicles, 1 self-propelled artillery and rocket artillery, 239 towed artillery pieces, and the rest of the military vehicles in eight days, basically achieving the goal of paralyzing Iran's ground combat forces.

At this point, the time was ripe for the US military to launch a ground offensive.

During this period, the domestic economy of the United States began to "improve".

The Dow Jones first recovered, followed by the S&P and Nasdaq. Loma shares had risen from $02 per share to $164 by May, before the war.

The main reason for the "crazy rise" of Loma's stock is speculation that the US military will expand the purchase of F-22 and F35.

Because of the participation in the production of the F-35 family of fighters, So

The company's local stocks have risen sharply.

The U.S. military consumes a lot of ammunition, which has led to a shortage of stocks, and arms companies such as Raytheon, which specialize in the production of ammunition, have greatly benefited.

The "Zumwalt" class destroyers have won wide recognition for their "excellent" performance in ground strikes, and the US military is likely to increase the amount of purchases, or develop more suitable "general-purpose destroyers" on the basis of them, and the construction of this class of destroyers will benefit from GE (the ship's branch).

Even Northrop, which produced the B-2, benefited from rumors that the U.S. military was going to launch the B-X development program.

In addition to the arms companies that have made a lot of war money, the US oil giants, which hold large sums of oil futures for delivery in May, have also become the biggest beneficiaries.

By May, the price of oil futures for June delivery on the New York Stock Exchange had risen to $184 a barrel!

As long as the war continues, US oil companies such as Exxon-Mobil will make 50% of their profits within a month.

As oil futures rose, international gold prices also began to rise.

The main reason for the "appreciation" of gold is not higher commodity prices, but the consensus expectation that the US dollar will depreciate sharply in the future.

When war breaks out, the US government will spend hundreds of billions, or even trillions, of dollars in military spending.

This money, in addition to being "burned" on the battlefield, will also flow into the financial market and become the "life-saving money" of the US banking industry. With the large increase in the issuance of US dollars, it will inevitably depreciate sharply.

With the signs of a ground war in the United States becoming more and more obvious, the depreciation of the dollar is even more "just around the corner".

According to outside estimates, if the U.S. military launches a ground war, the U.S. government will eventually pay as much as $5 trillion for the war. Even if the U.S. military can overthrow the Iranian government, the money will not be recovered, because the U.S. military will have to invest trillions of dollars in Iran's reconstruction. Eventually, the new dollars flowing into the market will certainly exceed 3 trillion. In this case, a 20% depreciation of the dollar is not a strange thing.

In addition to the higher price of gold, many precious and rare metals have also been affected.

In the case of chromium, for example, the market price has risen by 21%% in just 9 days. The price of war-related, ~, and other rare metals has soared by more than 50%.

Comparatively speaking, international investors significantly value the United States more.

During the Sino-Japanese war in the East China Sea, apart from the financial attacks launched by both sides, international investors did not worry about the impact on international finance and the economy, because whether it was the Republic or Japan, the land burned was their own money, and it was difficult to pass on the losses to other countries through "seigniorage" and other forms.

The United States is completely different, and the United States can pass on the war consumption to other countries by issuing additional currency.

It is not difficult to understand why the war between the United States and Iraq had such a huge impact on international financial and economic markets.

Almost everyone believes that the United States will attack Iran without the support of any allies, and if it cannot share the costs of the war with its allies, the United States will only use financial plundering to make all countries in the world share the war expenses and pass on the disaster to other countries.

From this point of view, probably many people hope that the United States will be "defeated" and that the war will end as soon as possible.

On this day in May, + Muhua reached an "arms exchange agreement" with the Iranian ambassador to the Republic in Beijing, who represents the Iranian government. The "China Heavy Goods Company" provided Iran with weapons and ammunition, including air defense systems and army ammunition, in the form of purchasing on behalf of Iran, and Iran paid for military purchases with the share of state-owned oil fields after the war. Both sides made a compromise on the settlement method, + Muhua agreed to settle the oil at the average price of oil on the international market in May, and the Iranian government promised to accrue 7% interest per month until the oil extraction work carried out by the "China Heavy Goods Company", and to pay additional costs for repairing damaged facilities in the oil fields after the war.

Later that day, a train carrying 50 wagons of arms passed through the Heihe port and entered Russian territory.

Within five days, the first batch of arms urgently supplied by the "China Heavy Goods Company" will arrive in Iran.

In parallel with the procurement of arms from the Republic, Iran has similarly purchased large quantities of arms from Russia. As Pan Yunsheng expected, Iran did not purchase air defense systems from Russia, but mainly purchased light weapons, various types of ammunition and communications equipment for the army.

However, Iran negotiated the procurement contract with the "Zhongzhong Company" at this time, and it was a little late.

On the night of May 3, Pan Yunsheng asked the intelligence counselor at the embassy in Iran to alert Iranian intelligence agencies that the US military was expected to launch a ground war within 24 to hours.

In May, at around 11 p.m. Beijing time, the Military Intelligence Agency sounded the alarm again.

This is not "intimidating" Iran into signing the arms purchase contract as soon as possible, but an unmistakable warning. The reconnaissance satellite not only took pictures of the US ground troops entering the offensive position, but also found that the frequency of US military communications had increased markedly. The latter is exactly the precursor to a ground offensive!

According to the MIA's predictions, if Iran is unprepared, U.S. ground forces will capture Ahvaz within 24 hours of the attack. Even if Iran were ready to fight on the ground, the U.S. military would be able to advance the front to Ahvaz within hours and cut the Iranian ground forces deployed in Khuzestan province in half.

As a result, it certainly won't be much better! (To be continued, if you want to know what happens next, please log in.)

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