。 【Full text reading】Early in the morning of the month. Xiang Linghui took Pei Chengyi and Yuan Chenhao to Yuanfu. Also who went earlier than them were Gu Weimin, Yan Jingyu, Ye Zhisheng, Yan Shanglong, Lin Xiaolei, and Li Cunxun, who did not attend the meeting yesterday. Needless to say, these people are the main leaders of the Republic in the "post-Wang Yuanqing era". Pei Chengyi and Yuan Chenhao were a little embarrassed, after all, they were not the leaders of the republic. After Wang Yuanqing arrived. Instead of pulling the usual routine, I continued to discuss yesterday's topic. "I thought about it for a night. I think General Pei's analysis is very reasonable. "Wang Yuanqing seems to be deliberately improving Pei Chengyi's position." As General Pei said, whatever we want to do in the Middle East depends on whether we are determined to fight with the United States for Syria

Wang Yuanqing's words fell into the net. Lin Xiaolei became excited. Before he could speak, Xiang Linghui kicked him below, making the incoming chief of the General Staff shut up. Obviously, Lin Xiaolei was still a little tender, he didn't know much about Wang Yuanqing's style, and he didn't know that Wang Yuanqing's words were in his words.

"Of course, we have to look at the problem from multiple perspectives." Wang Yuanqing paused for a moment and said, "Putting aside for the time being whether the United States will desperately defend Israel and whether we will make a big fight in the Middle East for Syria, let's first figure out two issues, one is whether Syria will take the most crucial step on the issue of the Golan Heights without our support, and the other is the extent to which the United States will support Israel, or under what circumstances will the United States unconditionally support Israel." The first issue was discussed yesterday, and in my judgment, as long as Iran can be stabilized, through Iran to influence Syria, as long as we do not nod our heads, the possibility of Syria using force to regain the Golan Heights is very slim. The point is the latter, will the United States support Israel in a proactive approach to address the threat to the Golan Heights? In any case, the Golan Heights are Syrian territory, and Israel is to blame. In other words, Israel can swallow the Golan Heights, but not Syria. In this case, there is only one possibility that Israel will take the initiative to provoke a war, and that is that Syria's military is so strong that it poses a threat to the Golan Heights and to the very existence of the Jewish people. Do not doubt the will and courage of the Jews, for the Jews who have suffered too much in order to survive will never be merciful

"In that case, it's just a conflict at best." The tear book bar dumps the concave coffee factory less, more chopping, more

Pei Chengyi spoke, Wang Yuanqing smiled slightly, and let him continue.

"Israel will have no qualms if it is only to eliminate a potential threat. You know, more than 50 years ago, Israel sent warplanes to blow up Iraq's nuclear reactors. According to the information already available, more than 20 years ago, Israel spent a huge amount of money to buy ugly from the United States in order to strike at Iran's nuclear facilities. If it weren't for the outbreak of the Iran war, I'm afraid Israel would have taken action a long time ago Pei Chengyi paused slightly. "In fact, military strikes against potential threats alone are unlikely to lead to a regional war." In my judgment, Israel will use the most basic tactic, which is to use the maximum intensity of air power, first to destroy the Syrian air defense system and air power, and then to carry out a focused bombing of the Syrian armed system. The way of fighting is the same as twenty years ago. Our actions in the latter part of the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War were very similar.

The entire combat operation will last from twenty-four to forty-eight hours, and after the bombardment, there will be at most a few ground forces left in Syria. There is no doubt that with ground forces alone, let alone the recovery of the Golan Heights, it is a question of whether they can fight the 100 Israeli Army. ”

Wang Yuanqing frowned slightly and glanced at the other participants.

Yuan Chenhao was about to speak, but when he saw Lin Xiaolei's excited appearance, he couldn't help but say nothing. Round reading the most chopped chapters, choose the tear book, throw the concave Peng complete

"I also agree with General Pei that the Israeli Air Force could complete the strike in two days if it were only aimed at the Syrian military forces. The key question is, does Israel dare to strike Syria blatantly? Lin Xiaolei looked at Pei Chengyi and said, "At the beginning of this century, Israel launched two military operations against Lebanese Allah and Hamas, both of which were strongly condemned by the international community. Although Lebanon is a small country and Hamas is notorious, Syria is not a small country. Rather, it has been recognized as a regional power. What's more, Syria has a certain appeal in the Middle East, not only with Iran, but also with Iraq, and with Egypt. That is, Israel cannot deal with Syria the way it does with Allah

Listen to Lin Xiaolei. Wang Yuanqing did not speak, but waited for Pei Chengyi to refute.

Obviously, Pei Chengyi didn't want to refute, after all, he didn't plan to carry it with Lin Xiaolei.

It's just that Yuan Chenhao was a little excited, and seemed to want to express his opinion.

"Anyway. It's not thirty years ago. In order not to let Yuan Chenhao be the first bird, Pei Chengyi had to stand on the opposite side of Lin Xiaolei, "It is undeniable that with the change of the international situation, Israel cannot deal with Syria as it did with Hamas and Allah, and even has to make compromises on the issue of Palestinian statehood." The problem is that we have to think from Israel's point of view. Israel has made concessions to the Palestinian Authority and has even acquiesced in the legitimacy of Hamas as a Palestinian political faction. Not because Israel is willing to make concessions, but because the United States has made the most solemn promises. As everyone knows. In the negotiations on comprehensive nuclear disarmament, Israel would not have been able to participate in the negotiations as a family without pressure from the United States. It is also impossible to guarantee the destruction of nuclear weapons, and the United States has not only exerted pressure on Israel, but will also ensure Israel's security in the form of legislation before Israel formally signs the London Treaty. In other words, as long as the United States passes the Israel Relations Act or a similar law with strategic security guarantees, the Israeli authorities will not take American pressure seriously

Lin Xiaolei didn't have Pei Chengyi's opinion, but before he could speak, Xiang Linghui glared at him and told him to shut up.

"In fact, that's the key. Will Israel take the United States in its eyes. Pei Chengyi paused slightly and said, "Yuan said that Jews have gone through too many tribulations. Can we trust such a nation that it will compromise with any force on the question of life and death? In a sense. Israel's admission of possession of nuclear weapons and its participation in comprehensive nuclear disarmament negotiations is not due to the guarantee of the United States or the pressure of the United States, but to the fact that the Israeli authorities are aware of the overall international situation and know that no force can prevent nuclear disarmament. In other words, if Israel adopts the opposite strategy, it will not only lose the support of the United States, but will also face an existential test. Only by joining the ranks of nuclear disarmament can Israel's national and national interests be guaranteed. From this, we must first admit that the Israeli authorities are not thinking about who to fight or who not to fight, but about the survival of the Jews. ”

Wang Yuanqing nodded slightly. Seems very interested.

"So, is the survival of the Jews threatened?" Pei Chengyi shook his head with a smile and said, "We might as well make an assumption." That is, until the end of this year, nothing will be born in the Middle East. As everyone knows. The London Treaty was last signed on the last day of the year. In other words, if Israel does not sign the treaty by then, it will not only be severely punished by the international community, but its national security will also not be guaranteed. Of course, as long as the US authorities turn a blind eye, the punishment of the international community will not have much impact on Israel. The problem is that the United States cannot shield a country that refuses to sign the Treaty of London.

To be precise, if the United States shields Israel, it will not only make the "London Treaty" a dead letter, but will also change the international situation that it has carefully created. As a result, even if we don't want to do anything, the US authorities will think that we will take this opportunity to take out Israel and thus occupy the Middle East. ”

"The lesser of two evils, the US authorities have no better choice."

It is precisely like this, the United States can only give up Israel, just like when Western countries abandoned the Kingdom of Jerusalem Pei Chengyi smiled faintly and said, "It is impossible for Jews to be so smart that they don't know the powerful stakes, so they made concessions at the London summit." That is, Israel will definitely sign the London Treaty and gradually eliminate nuclear weapons. The problem is that, for too long, it was not its conventional military forces that really saved Israel from aggression, but its nuclear threat. If Israel is not the only nuclear power in the Middle East, with its limited conventional military force, it is no match for the surrounding Arab states. As a matter of fact, after the third Middle East war, Israel was able to claim hegemony in the Middle East and use millions of people to defeat Arab countries with hundreds of millions of people, which is inextricably linked to its nuclear strength. For Israel, the destruction of nuclear weapons is tantamount to self-destruction of the Great Wall. ”

Wang Yuanqing frowned slightly. Said: "Do you think Israel will do it immediately?.

"This catty. It is impossible to be certain, but one thing is clear, and that is that Israel will not tolerate the emergence of a military power in the surrounding region that poses a threat to it. Pei Chengyi seemed to think of something, changed his words, and said, "There is no doubt that the most powerful area around Israel is Egypt. In fact, in the first three Middle East wars, only Egypt had the ability to confront Israel. It is precisely for this reason that when the United States began to deal with the Middle East issue, it was Egypt that it first dealt with. Through so many years of exhibition, Egypt's strength has increased unabated. The problem is that we are unlikely to use Egypt. In fact, Egypt has always pursued a balanced foreign policy, and it is impossible for us to take advantage of it. Except for Egypt, it is Syria, and only Syria has enough capital to threaten Israel. ”

Wang Yuanqing nodded thoughtfully and said: "Israel will destroy its nuclear weapons in three stages, of which the first stage will only destroy 20 percent of its nuclear warheads, which will not have much impact on it. In my judgment, Israel will certainly act before the end of the year. ”

"Maybe I won't have to wait that long." The tear book bar throws off the concave coffee factory and tells less, Xia Chop, Xia more

Li Cunxun suddenly spoke, and the others immediately looked at him.

"We have fully considered the situation in Israel and the choices that the Israeli authorities may make, but we have ignored another element of uncertainty." Li Cunxun let out a long sigh and said, "Although the information we have received is very limited. But there are already signs of an increase in the frequency of the activities of US intelligence agencies in the Middle East. There is reason to believe that the intelligence agencies of the United States are conducting a large-scale operation in Zego. Of course. Mossard is not easy to bully. In fact, Mossad's relationship with U.S. intelligence agencies was not friendly. It's just that these signs make me think that even if Israel is not too impulsive in dealing with peripheral issues, the United States will play a role in it.

"What do you mean?. Wang Yuanqing asked. Circle reading the most chopped chapters, choose the tear book, throw the concave and complete

"Imagine that if Israel and Syria break out in conflict, the United States will deal with it

Wang Yuanqing frowned slightly. Wait for Li Cunxun to continue.

"There is no doubt that the United States is dealing with neither Syria nor Iran, but we are with Russia, or simply to deal with us." Li Cunxun took two sips of tea and continued, "The Falklands conflict has a very great impact on the world pattern, and the United States is in a very disadvantageous position in Europe.

Although George resigned on his own initiative. It has created a respite for the ruling coalition, and the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party who has taken over has also been very active on foreign issues, but the influence of the United States in Britain has been greatly reduced, and several polls have shown that more than half of the British people support the Conservative Party, that is, they support moving closer to the countries of continental Europe. In fact. The countries of the European continent are also actively acting, only limited to American pressure and not showing too much initiative in the British question. In response to the aggressive policy of the United States, the choice of the countries of the European continent is to move eastward and balance the United States by getting closer to Russia. Of course, the countries of the European continent are also improving relations with us and assing us with Russia to counter the United States. Even if we all know that France, Germany, Italy, and other countries on the European continent will not be able to become a climate for a while and a half, let alone call out the United States on major international issues, these moves by the countries of the European continent have already cornered the United States. ”

"You mean, if the United States can't manage to get a game, it's going to have to go back to the west coast of the Atlantic?"

Li Cunxun nodded and said: "This is the most noteworthy question, that is, will the US authorities willingly withdraw from Europe?" If the answer is no, the United States will be desperate to let us fall behind. Because France, Germany and Italy have drawn Russia in, they will look for opportunities to deal with Russia. There is no doubt that the Middle East is the best choice. Imagine if pro-American regimes emerged in both Syria and Iran. What will be the result? "Round reading the most choppy chapter, choose the tear book, throw the concave Peng complete

Wang Yuanqing let out a long breath and glanced at Gu Weimin, who was sitting on the left-hand side.

"If that's the case, all these years of hard work will be in vain." Gu Weimin smiled bitterly and said, "Maybe." We will have to spend another ten or twenty years dealing with pro-American Iran as we did with India. Even if we willingly accept the reality, the US authorities will not rest on their laurels after tasting the sweetness. It's definitely going to take an inch. When the time comes, it will not be Syria and Iran. ”

"Director Li, how reliable is your report?"

"This is all my analysis and speculation, and there is no relevant information yet

Yan Jingyu, who was Tiran, frowned slightly, and glanced at Wang Yuanqing. The tearful book bar has fewer concave factories, and there are many bad salaries

"Although there is no intelligence support. But the possibility does exist. In fact, we can synthesize the judgments of Director Li and General Pei. Wang Yuanqing paused for a moment and said, "For the sake of national and national security, Israel will definitely defeat the powerful countries around it before the complete destruction of nuclear weapons, especially Syria, which has been clamoring for the return of the Golan Heights." There are many reasons to go to war, if necessary. There is no need for even a reason. The United States authorities must have been well aware of Israel's thoughts, otherwise it would not have been possible for Israel to sign the Treaty of London. In other words, the United States will use Israel to contain us and Russia to kill three birds with one stone. As long as the US authorities find a valid reason, they will agitate Israel to deal with Syria. The result is not difficult to imagine, if we do not shoot. Even if Russia and Iran do their best, they will not be the opponents of the United States and Israel, and may even make Iran unable to eat and walk around, thus creating an opportunity for the United States to be humiliated. To help Syria, a prerequisite is needed, and a valid reason. If we guess here, we will certainly not be able to guess the means of the United States, and it will be impossible to take the correct countermeasures. To put it bluntly, we can only be passive everywhere to accept the challenge of the United States, and we can never try to seize the initiative. If we want to take the initiative, we have to be proactive. ”

Wang Yuanqing said this part, whether he has an opinion or no opinion, it is not good to say anything.

Bae Chengyi and Li Cunxun glanced at each other, and it seemed that they were both grateful to each other.

"It seems that we have reached an agreement on this issue." Wang Yuanqing patted the armrest and glanced at Gu Weimin next to him. "In any case, in recent months, the US authorities have had to focus on the UK, and only when the situation in the UK calms down, the US will do something." That is, we also have a few months to prepare. I don't want to express too many opinions on how to deal with Middle East affairs, because if I am not alone, if I don't seek a job, I will not be living here at that time. I just want to emphasize that for the foreseeable future, involvement in war must be avoided as much as possible. It is also necessary to avoid direct confrontation with the United States. Although we cannot avoid challenges by losing the interests of the country and the nation, we must deal with them calmly and not lose our way when dealing with them. I believe that with the leadership of Lao Gu and Xiao Yan, and with so many outstanding officials and soldiers, we will definitely be able to overcome all challenges and create a better, more brilliant, and more brilliant future for the Chinese nation. ”

After Wang Yuanqing finished speaking, the participants suddenly became excited.

Undoubtedly, this was Wang Yuanqing's last advice before leaving office, and the old soldiers and politicians in the room were the pillars of the republic and the core members of the power structure in the future.