Sheng's "unintentional words" just hit the nail on the head.

For any one country, the impact of the global Great Depression far exceeded that of war.

After the outbreak of the US-Iraq war, countries around the world held high the banner of trade protectionism, erected trade barriers, and made every effort to protect their own industries, trying to keep the storm out of the country.

Protectionism mitigated the effects of the Great Depression to some extent.

The problem is that protectionism is unlikely to fundamentally resolve the Great Depression.

The global economic depression has many similarities with the great depression at the end of the 20th century, first of all, the financial crisis triggered global financial turmoil, which led to the collapse of a large number of financial enterprises, and the sharp contraction of the investment market, which had a serious impact on the real economy, forming a vicious circle of "enterprise closure - workers losing jobs - consumption shrinking - unsalable products - more enterprises going bankrupt", and finally dragging down the real economy.

The root cause of the Great Depression was not the financial crisis, but the unequal distribution of wealth.

There is no silver bullet for any country when it comes to the issue of "distribution of wealth".

Trade protectionism simply transfers the problem of wealth distribution in one country to other countries by attacking and dumping goods from other countries.

When all countries implement trade protectionism, the channels for passing on the crisis are completely blocked.

After the 20199 Mid-South Storm. The role of trade protectionism in driving the economy has gradually weakened.

Governments have introduced a variety of policies and measures. Trying to solve the distribution problem. For example, Japan has nationalized bankrupt companies, restricted the income of executives of private enterprises, and imposed huge taxes on private enterprises. The transfer of social wealth to the general public in the form of secondary distribution. It's just that. Japan is an extreme case. Not all national governments can be like the Japanese military government. Use the army to force the consortium to surrender to the government.

The republic can't do it. The United States can't do it either.

The Republic faced the same problem as the United States: there was nowhere to sell a large surplus of supplies.

Relatively speaking. Life in the Republic is a little better. The infrastructure of the Republic is still inadequate. Infrastructure can consume a lot of surplus materials; The adjustment of the industrial structure has greatly reduced the excess capacity of some low-end industrial areas; The revolution in power technology has enhanced the competitiveness of high-end products in the international market; The social welfare security system has been gradually improved. It provides basic living security for ordinary citizens.

The problem in the United States is very serious. Although relying on power technology to achieve breakthroughs. The U.S. auto industry has come back to life. But other U.S. industries face existential tests. Take, for example, the U.S. aerospace industry. With the establishment of "Commercial Aviation Manufacturing Corporation of China", which was jointly established by many aircraft manufacturing companies such as Shangfei, Chengfei, Xifei and Shenfei, it was announced. Worldwide rollout of the 150-class all-electric regional airliner. Boeing's sales plummeted 30% in 2019. In 2020, it decreased by 33%. The United States has had to introduce a number of laws and regulations. Restricting all-electric regional airliners from entering the U.S. aviation market. Huge financial subsidies for Boeing and airlines. With the launch of a large, all-electric civil airliner equipped with a Class 6 composite battery, it will be launched on the market in 2022. Boeing's future is even bleaker. In order for Boeing to survive. In 20211, the United States signed contracts with Boeing in the name of arms procurement and military development, with a total value of more than $100 million. Even allocated 25 yuan for Boeing to develop a low-end light fighter specifically for foreign sales on the basis of the F-32 (which lost to the F-35 ground light fighter in the JSF program).

The aerospace industry is just one microcosm of the U.S. economy.

In order to prevent pillar industries and large companies from collapsing in the Great Depression and weakening national strength, the United States had to "transfuse" tens of thousands of enterprises in hundreds of industries through financial subsidies and other means. When the financial subsidy was released, the U.S. Congress introduced relevant laws to stipulate the amount of layoffs in enterprises that received financial subsidies. The U.S. federal government has also signed agreements with hundreds of large corporations that require them not to lay off employees. Both the U.S. Congress and the U.S. federal government want to save businesses and reduce unemployment through financial subsidies.

After receiving the financial subsidy, American companies can neither lay off employees nor stop production, but can only continue production.

The question is, what to do with the products that are produced? Keeping big business is not the same as saving the jobs of all Americans. Protectionism has deprived American consumers of the opportunity to obtain high-quality and low-cost foreign goods. Lacking advanced technology and having an extremely high price, American products are not competitive in the international market. The combination of many factors has made the U.S. consumer market bleak and limited the export of U.S. products.

Over time, the United States has more and more surplus supplies.

Fiscal subsidies cannot last forever, and to revitalize the US economy, it is not only necessary to consume the surplus as soon as possible, but also to make other countries pay for it.

It is not difficult to understand why the United States is selling arms to Japan, which has embarked on the road of militarism.

The sale of arms is unlikely to solve the problem completely, since the sale of arms accounts for only a small percentage of the trade.

The most direct and simple way is a large-scale war that does not require the participation of the United States, and one of the parties participating in the war needs to buy a large number of various material items, including arms, from the United States! This is why many people believe that it was not Keynesianism that saved America during the Great Depression of the 20th century, but the root cause of World War II. There is only war

Consume the surplus materials of the United States in a short period of time and bring the American economy

Pan Yunsheng's sentence is exactly what he is talking about.

As the global Great Depression progresses, countries around the world are looking for a way out.

The problem of "material surplus" needs to be solved not only in the United States, but also in traditional powers such as the Republic, the European Union, Russia, and Japan.

While economists around the world are calling on countries to abandon protectionism, it is already too late.

Even if the interests of various countries are not taken into account, all countries in the world will immediately abolish trade barriers, the world economy will not immediately improve, and the world pattern will also undergo a major reshuffle. Countries that have mastered advanced technology and have strong product competitiveness become the final winners, while countries that fail to master advanced technology and lack product competitiveness become the final losers. Even if the United States has mastered the production technology of composite batteries and has the foundation to compete with the Republic, it will not easily open up the domestic market, because the Republic can defeat competitors with higher-level composite batteries at any time, and the domestic interest groups, voters, and allies with interests in the United States will become victims.

Other solutions proposed by economists are also to see flowers in the fog and the moon in the water.

Having come to this point, there are few viable solutions other than war.

As the leader of the republic, it is impossible for Zhao Rundong not to see this. To be precise, two years ago, Zhao Rundong realized that a large-scale war would be inevitable, otherwise he would not have adjusted his strategy and actively dealt with international disputes.

Zhao Rundong did not take the initiative to raise it, mainly because he could not determine the nature of the "large-scale war".

Is it a large-scale local war or a world-class war?

Although the possibility of the latter is very slim, and in a situation where nuclear weapons are enough to destroy the only home of mankind, no country or nation can be the winner of a world war, but it is not impossible.

As long as war breaks out, the leader's ability to control the country is greatly reduced, driven by the interests of the state and the nation. Uncontrolled national sentiments and uncontrolled national interests will be the main culprits in the destruction of humanity.

Large-scale local wars are also very "exquisite".

The regulations are not large enough to achieve the purpose of consuming surplus materials; The scale is too large, and it can easily turn into a world-class war.

If the United States is planning or promoting a large-scale local war, three conditions must be met. First, one of the belligerents is an ally of the United States, and can only buy or obtain supplies from the United States during the war; Second, it is necessary to involve major countries such as the Republic, Russia, Japan, Britain, France, Germany, and Italy in the war, consume the surplus materials of these countries, and avoid these countries from dumping materials on a large scale after the war; Third, the scope of the war is limited and the scale can be controlled, at least when the major powers are determined to end the war, so as not to turn into a world-class war.

Throughout the world, there is only one place that can meet these three conditions: the Korean Peninsula.

Although EU countries do not have much to do with the Korean Peninsula, they can export supplies to South Korea as allies of the United States. The Korean Peninsula is close to the Republic, Russia, and Japan, and as long as the three countries are unwilling to allow it to expand, it will not turn into a world-class war.

After pondering for a while, Zhao Rundong let out a sigh.

Pan Yunsheng and Peng Maobang glanced at each other and looked at Zhao Rundong.

"Xiao Pan is right, we underestimate the United States too much." Zhao Rundong smiled bitterly and said, "The United States connived at and supported Japan in order to trigger a war that was large enough to pay for itself. It's just that the United States acted very cautiously, indicating that the United States feared being drawn into the war. ”

"If there is a real fight, it will not be up to the United States to decide."

Glancing at Peng Maobang, Zhao Rundong said: "The point is that we don't want to be drawn into the war either. ”

"The United States wants to borrow a knife to kill people!?" Pan Yunsheng suddenly had an epiphany.

Zhao Rundong nodded and said, "It's very simple, but it's a very effective strategy. Japan and South Korea are at odds with each other, and no matter what the U.S. policy is, as long as it does not send troops to help South Korea as an ally, South Korea will desperately expand its armaments after the war. Leaving aside for the time being how much the United States can gain from this, South Korea will certainly be restless when it expands its armaments. As long as the DPRK and the ROK are tense, the United States and Japan will be able to enjoy it. When the time comes, no one will be able to stop the war on the peninsula. ”

"It's really ruthless enough, but in this way, it takes at least two to three years of preliminary preparation."

"It certainly won't be more than four years." Zhao Rundong rubbed his forehead, "Frederick finally won re-election, as long as the war breaks out on the peninsula, the possibility of the Republican Party continuing to be in power has greatly increased." The global Great Depression will not end so soon, and interest groups in the United States will fully support the Republican Party. Frederick will not leave the infamy of making war to the next president, but will only leave the good name of ending the war to the next president to ensure the continuation of the Republican Party. Within four years, there will be a war on the Korean Peninsula, and the scale will be staggering. ”

Pan Yunsheng and Peng Maobang did not disagree with Zhao Rundong's point of view, because the two also held the same view!

Damn it**

During the closure period, every half an hour, the flickering brothers went crazy together, so that everyone was happy!

Ask for votes and support, and come to any vote and support! (To be continued)

Starting