From a poisonous perspective, from the standpoint of a businessman, you can better see Iran's question

As one of the countries with the most comprehensive national strength in the Middle East, Iran does not lack the foundation to become a regional power, and has not been able to dominate the region. 【】

Iran's social problems have already been discussed, and the resulting economic problems are even more acute. The tear book bar dumps the concave coffee factory less, and the salary is more

As Lin Muxun said, the export of natural gas can determine Iran's economic growth, and it is strange that Iran's economy has no problems.

There is no doubt that Iran is a pound. "Resource-based country"

In fact, as long as oil and gas are important chemical raw materials, Iran has enough resources to support the development of the whole country, and the key is how to use these resources effectively. Saudi Arabia, which is across the sea from Iran across the Persian Gulf, has done a better job in this regard. To some extent, even if Iran doesn't innovate, it can follow Saudi Arabia's lead and hold on to a few major markets, such as the Republic and India. It will be able to make use of its abundant resources and the chemical industry system based on resources to maintain a high growth rate of the national economy and alleviate domestic contradictions. The problem is that Iran has not followed Saudi Arabia's lead, but has gone from one extreme to the other.

After Ahmadinejad came to power, due to some non-economic factors, he completely rejected the previous economic policies and began to implement the new policy.

The "New Deal" is not difficult to understand. It is economic reforms that transform the state-run economy into a private economy and open up Iran's investment market. With the help of foreign capital to develop the economy.

Doesn't it sound familiar?

From the very beginning, the Western New Media claimed that Ahmadinejad was emulating the Republic's reform and opening up.

The truth is, the problem is far from that simple.

In essence, Ahmadinejad presumed an open-door policy with economic development as a secondary purpose, and the main purpose was to gain the backing and strength to rival the supreme spiritual leader by bringing in foreign capital, especially the capital of the republic, and to carry out more comprehensive reform measures after taking political power in Iran. Other words. Ahmadinejad's economic reforms were pursued for political purposes, not economic purposes.

This gap in motivation. It is impossible for Iran's reform and opening up to achieve the best economic results.

Over the years, Iran has indeed attracted a lot of foreign investment. According to the data released by the Iranian government at the beginning of the year, by the end of the year, Iran had absorbed a total of international investment of about one trillion riyals, or about 100 million US dollars. The problem is that the "quality" of these foreign investments is not high. For example, Sanjian Group's investment in Iran is in! In addition, 100 million yuan was used to build gas pipelines and oil pipelines, and 100 million yuan was used for port construction, and only less than 100 million yuan was used to set up industries, and the so-called "industry" was all resource extraction and primary processing, and there was no high-end manufacturing industry that Iran needed most. While the significance of infrastructure is very important, in the long run, Sanjian Group's investment can generate high returns. But for a country with a population of only a few tens of millions, huge infrastructure investment means a severe slump in consumption. There is also a lack of potential for sustainable development.

This is the problem that Lin Muxun mentioned, because the proportion of resource extraction and primary processing in Iran's economy is too large.

To make matters worse, Ahmadinejad came to power after the war in India. In other words, when Ahmadinejad came to power, the vast majority of the republic's businesses were focused on India, either participating in India's post-war reconstruction efforts or grabbing market share in India. Anyway, there is no pound. Entrepreneurs will abandon India and focus on Iran, which has a market capacity of only one-thirtieth that of India.

Obviously, most of those who go to Iran to invest have backgrounds.

For Lin Muxun, going to Tehran with Bae Seung-yi was for politics, not for the economy. Of course, this is not to say that Lin Muxun has political ambitions, but that his influence is too great and he has to do something for the authorities of the republic at some point.

In fact, this is also the information that Pei Chengyi needs to get. Round reading the most chopped chapters, choose the tear book, throw the concave Peng complete

When it comes to this topic. Pei Chengyi looked particularly energetic.

"Although I don't want to comment on the government's policies, I think it's a bit of a cart before the horse to focus on Iran right now." Lin Muxun knew Mu Chengyi's identity and knew who sent Pei Chengyi, so he didn't have many reservations in front of Pei Chengyi. "Anyway, the Indian pie is enough for us to digest for years.

I'm not afraid of your jokes, but according to the long-term development plan of the group that I formulated a few years ago, I am afraid that by the time I retire, Sanjian Group will still be working hard in India. Although we all know that if India wants to become a leading country, it can only hope for the next technological revolution, and it must lead the technological revolution, it cannot be denied that within 20 years, India will surpass us and become the world's largest market. Twenty years from now, China's population will be reduced to 800 million, and then the population of the United States will be between 5 and 600 million, the population of the European Union will be less than 700 million, and the population of Russia will exceed 150 million, while the population of India will definitely be more than 2.3 billion, and may even exceed 2.5 billion. While population pressures will slow India's economic growth to some extent and even cause social problems, there have been substantial breakthroughs in agricultural technology. The modern agricultural factories we have invested in in India have been in operation for a long time, and the results have been remarkable, minimizing the pressure on survival caused by the population explosion. To put it bluntly, with its massive population, India can at least create four major economic aggregates and market aggregates, and we don't need to pay too much attention to economic aggregates. In the next half century, the significance of the total number of the seven countries in the competition between major powers will not be too obvious, and in fact, no country will be able to achieve global hegemony by virtue of its economic aggregate, but we must not underestimate the potential of the Indian market, let alone give up the Indian market. Half a century ago, it was said that whoever controls the market of the republic controls the global market. Now I can also say that whoever controls the Indian market will be able to control the global market in the future. ”

"In other words, we can let the situation in the Middle East go unchecked?"

Lin Muxun smiled and did not argue with Pei Chengyi. The tearful book bar has fewer concave factories, and there are many nightmares

"I share your opinion that India is so important that we need to do everything we can to keep other forces out of India." Pei Chengyi smiled slightly and said, "In fact, this is the fundamental reason why we are competing in the Middle East. ”

"You mean..."

"More than 2,000 years ago, Alexander the Great, who came out of the mountains of the Balkan Peninsula, brought Western civilization to the Indian subcontinent, and no one could defend India without building a great wall to the west of India." Pei Chengyi paused slightly and said, "Although I don't dare to speculate on the government's policies, as a soldier. From a purely military point of view, we must do something in the Middle East, and whatever we do in the Middle East is essentially aimed at maintaining our hegemony in East and South Asia. Of course. Controlling the Middle East is not easy, in fact, almost impossible. A hundred years ago, Britain and France did not completely subjugate the Arabs, and later the United States did not completely tame the Arabs, and neither can we. ”

"Then what are we going to do in Yidi?"

"Mr. Lin, this is not like a question coming out of your mouth."

Lin Muxun smiled and didn't speak.

"It doesn't matter if you can't control the Middle East, the key is not to let others control the Middle East. To be precise, rather than making the Middle East a springboard for the United States to wield its power eastward, it is better to make the Middle East a paradise for Arabs. Pei Chengyi smiled and said, "It is undeniable that there is a certain risk in doing so, after all, the Arab empire in history has created a miracle that is not big or small, but in the short term." That is, in the next few years, even if there is a pound again. It is impossible for an Arab man like Muhammad to dominate the world, or even the Middle East. You also said that in a few years, India will become the world's largest economy. Although I am not a businessman, I don't know much about business, and I don't know anything about economics, but I believe that a national capitalist like Mr. Lin will never let India pose a threat to us. Judging from the law of national development, in a few decades, we will enter a period of recession, which is the so-called strategic contraction, to put it nicely. At that time, as long as India can be stabilized, we will not have much to do with what the Middle East will become. Besides, in a few years, it will be left to our descendants to have a headache. ”

Lin Muxun smiled and said, "General Pei really thinks about it." ”

"Could it be that we are going to do everything that this son and grandson have done now?" Pei Chengyi let out a long breath and said, "The Middle East is the key to today's world pattern, and Iran is the key to the Middle East region.

When I came back from Cape Town, Lao Li talked to me a lot about the Middle East and Iran. Mr. Lin should also know that this trip to Iran is extraordinary, and in addition to our special mission, we must consider the feelings of the Iranian authorities, so I took the liberty to ask for advice. ”

"General Pei's words are serious." Lin Muxun extinguished his cigar and said, "Lao Li talked to me for a few hours last night, just to get me to pay attention. Of course, you also know Lao Li's temper, maybe because of the nature of his work, he didn't say it so thoroughly. ”

Pei Chengyi smiled bitterly, he naturally knew Li Cunxun's temper.

As the director of the Military Intelligence Bureau, Li Cunxun is very good at enlightening others, that is, he will never make his words clear until he has to. Talk to Lee Cunxun about things. Not only should you be highly focused, but you must also be proficient in language arts.

"As I mentioned earlier, the Iranian issue is not complicated, but it is not simple." Lin Muxun knocked on the table. Said. "In general, it's the two most powerful people vying for power in Iran. Although Ahmadinejad has the support of nearly eighty percent of the population and nearly half of the military, he is still in this struggle. He is still at a disadvantage, and if it weren't for our covert support, I'm afraid Hash would have ousted him long ago. ”

Pei Chengyi frowned slightly, waiting for Lin Muxun to continue.

"Iran's Supreme Spiritual Leader, Hash, is a very mysterious man, and I have only met him once, and only a few words in a meeting at the completion ceremony of the renovation of the Mosque in Asane. According to Lao Li, the military intelligence agency did not have much information, only that he came from a very poor place in eastern Iran, and basically climbed up by his own struggle. ”

"I also know this, the key is that Hash is very influential."

"Herein lies the problem, Hash's influence is completely different from Ahmadinejad's influence." Lin Muxun paused slightly. "Let's put it this way, in the eyes of the vast majority of Iranians. Ahmadinejad is their desire. It will bring them a life of abundance, and Hash is their spiritual sustenance, like the elders in a big family. While it is difficult for us to understand this value of the Iranians, we must know that it is not difficult to get the Iranians to support Ahmadinejad, but it is very difficult to get them to oppose Hash. ”

Pei Chengyi smiled and said, "The two are not on the same level at all. ”

"That's exactly what happened, so the two haven't gone head-to-head until now. The contradiction between Ahmadinejad and the neat group represented by Hash is inevitable Tuyue Muxun picked up the cigar, it seems that when he is thinking about problems, he also likes to smoke. "There is no doubt that we are an interest group with close ties to Ahmadinejad. There's nothing to talk about, I'll tell you something specific. Early last year. The province of Khuzestan has made a public expansion of the mining site and the Neons oil and gas field near Ramshir and its supporting industries, and we have come up with a very complete system construction plan, that is, to build an industrial system covering fertilizers, plastics, and composite materials based on the Neinche oil and gas field, so as to build the largest export market for chemical products in the Gulf region. To this end, we will invest tens of billions of yuan to create about 200,000 jobs in Khuzestan province over the next 50 years, and generate nearly one billion yuan in tax revenue for the local government and the Iranian government every year. As a result, we lost the tender to an Iranian company that only invested 3 billion yuan and did not propose any supporting construction projects, intending to export oil and gas directly. ”

“**？”

"** is one reason, and the other reason is political struggle." Lin Muxun smiled bitterly and said, "As you know, Khuzestan Province was occupied by the U.S. military for several years, and it was always the Revolutionary Guards who fought the war in the province, so after the withdrawal of the U.S. troops, the province became the base of the Revolutionary Guards. Coupled with the fact that the province faces Iraq and is Iran's main oil and gas producer, the province has always been the territory of Iran's supreme spiritual leader. ”

Pei Chengyi was stunned for a moment, feeling that Lin Muxun still had something to say.

Seeing Pei Chengyi's expression, Lin Muxun shook his head with a smile and said, "I have nothing to hide, that bidding operation was supported by the Military Intelligence Agency, and the Military Intelligence Agency promised to make up for our losses." Although Lao Li did not say it explicitly, I think his purpose was to help Ahmadinejad take control of Huzestan Province. In fact, for Ahmadinejad, who already controls two-thirds of Iran's provincial-level administrative districts, if he can take Khuzestan province without blood, Iran's political struggle can end without bloodshed

"If I'm not mistaken, this time I went to Iran, is Lao Li fulfilling his promise?"

Lin Muxun didn't react for a moment, and when he understood, he immediately smiled and said, "So to speak, after all, the longer you owe, the more interest." According to Lao Li's meaning, as long as the Iranian authorities are willing to agree to a few conditions, we can sell a large number of advanced weapons and equipment to Iran in the form of cooperative production, such as the small old series of heavy fighters that Iran has long hoped to buy. Among the conditions we have offered is the establishment of an arsenal in Khuzestan Province, on the grounds that the best port in Iran is in Khuzestan Province, and that the advanced weapons and equipment that we produce in cooperation with Iran will not only be supplied to the Iranian army, but will also be exported to other Middle Eastern countries. To be precise, let's build a military factory in Iran in the form of a joint venture

"The Iranian authorities will certainly not be able to refuse."

"There is absolutely no way to refuse, because the Iranian army urgently needs these weapons and equipment, and Ahmadinejad has stated that as long as we are willing to sell these advanced weapons and equipment, except for the price issue, other Iran can make concessions.

Come to think of it, Ahmadinejad said so, even if Hash knew it was a trick to get paid from the bottom of the kettle, he would have to agree to it. Hatchet man.

"The problem is, Hash can't just be caught."

"So he will take action, and the easiest action is to get rid of Ahmadinejad and replace him with a more obedient president. In fact, Hash had this idea for a long time. If Lao Li is right, the closest people around Ahmadinejad have fallen to Hash. It's time to replace Ahmadinejad. ”

"You mean thugs.

Lin Muxun smiled and said: "This is not important, the important thing is that we have given the US authorities an ultimatum, and the war will break out in three months." There is no doubt that we must not allow Iran to have problems at this time, otherwise it would be an ultimatum to us. ”

Hearing Lin Muxun say this, Pei Chengyi began to wonder if he had been working for the Military Intelligence Agency for a long time

"This is what Lao Li told me." Lin Muxun seemed to see what Pei Chengyi was thinking, and said, "To be honest. I'm just a businessman, and what has become of Iran has little to do with me. As a businessman of the republic, I have at most an obligation to defend the national interests of the republic. That's why I have no way to refuse Lao Li's request. ”

"Request?"

Lin Muxun smiled and said: "According to the promise I made to Lao Li, during the Middle East war, we will participate in the operation of aiding Iran and Syria, anyway, it is to temporarily withstand the pressure of war for the country." "Round reading the most choppy chapter, choose the tear book, throw the concave Peng complete

Pei Chengyi's brows jumped a few times, and he said, "Mr. Lin, you are not trading at a loss

"Of course, let's pay for it, we have to give us benefits." Lin Muxun immediately laughed out loud, "If Lao Li hadn't lied to me, after winning the Middle East war, we would probably have two hundred percent in return, and even if the ending was not ideal, we should have one hundred and five percent of the return."

"That's a huge profit."

"It's not about profiteering, but it's worth fighting, isn't it?"

Pei Chengyi smiled. Didn't take it seriously. For him. After graduating from the military academy and becoming a professional soldier, he did not worry about money, and naturally did not think about problems like a businessman.