Volume 3 The Stormy Waves of the East China Sea Chapter 23 Danger lurks
The amount of hot money poured into Japan, and it immediately became the "top priority" in the international capital market
After the outbreak of the East China Sea crisis, international financial speculators smelled the "smell of blood"; although after the diplomatic statement of the republic, the contradictions between China and Japan eased somewhat, but as the "grapevine" spread, international financial speculators with a nose more sensitive than a dog immediately flocked to the country, ready to show their strength
By noon on the 13th, the funds transferred to Japan by Hikohiro and others were less than $50
That is, hot money from international financial speculators is up to $250
At the same time, about $200 of hot money flowed into China's financial markets
The speed of the actions of international financial speculators has more or less exceeded the expectations of Yan Bo and others, and from an objective point of view, this is completely in line with the "law of the market"
After the outbreak of the financial crisis, international hot money, represented by hedge funds, lost its main investment channel
Over the past few years, although countries around the world have come out of the financial crisis one after another, and economic development has been on the right track, creating more investment opportunities for investors, financial capital is pursuing high profits and high returns, and formal investment cannot satisfy their appetites, and as long as there is an opportunity to obtain high returns, greedy financial capitalists will not sit idly by
After the Fourth Indo-Pakistani War, international financial speculators swept through the Indian financial markets
According to incomplete statistics, India and Pakistan announced a truce until the end of 2015, and the capital outflow from India was as high as 320 US dollars, most of which were the "results" of international financial speculators
India's financial market is too small to satisfy the "bloody mouth" of the financial predators
Last year, the Republic vetoed the proposal to expand the Standing Committee at the Security Council, and international financial speculators have set their sights on the local financial markets of the Republic and Japan
Because the Republic has not yet liberalized exchange rate controls and cannot freely settle foreign exchange, international financial speculators are more "concerned" about Japan
In just a few months, the Nikkei 225 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange exceeded the 18,000 mark, the return on capital exceeded 27 times, and the capital bubble was blown up several times, on July 11, the Tokai crisis broke out on the morning of only half an hour, and the Nikkei index plummeted by more than 10%, and was forced to temporarily suspend trading in the afternoon, and then plummeted by more than 10% in less than an hour after the resumption of trading in the afternoon, and the exchange was forced to suspend again until 13 at noon, the Nikkei index fell below 11,000 in two and a half trading days, and the Nikkei index fell by more than 38%, and the market price shrank by 33%
In the first two days, the vast majority of Japanese investors were very "optimistic" about the collapse of the Tokyo stock market
In the eyes of some Japanese investors, the plunge indicates that the asset bubble has been squeezed out and the normal financial order has been restored, which is much better than a tepid long-term recession, and the plunge will be followed by a sharp rise, as the stock price falls to the bottom, and investors with a wait-and-see attitude begin to enter the market to buy the bottom
On the morning of the 13th, the trading volume of the Tokyo Stock Exchange stopped falling and rose as the index continued to plummet
With the collapse of the Nikkei 225 number, the international hot money that had entered the market quickly got out, causing the yen exchange rate to continue to weaken until the morning of 13, and the yen fell to 121 against the dollar from 104 on the 10th
At this time, the funds of Hikohiro and others entered the market, and the yen exchange rate rose slightly to 120
Because Hikohiro and others did not invest much capital, the investigation by the Japanese financial regulator will not yield any results
As the prime minister who led Japan out of the haze of the financial crisis, Ozawa did not dare to be careless about the sudden influx of international hot money, and after talking to Hatoyama on the phone, Ozawa ordered the intelligence department to intervene in the investigation while ordering the activation of a "financial intervention mechanism" to prevent violent fluctuations in the financial capital market
It's a pity that Ozawa couldn't find the right direction
Japan's financial regulatory system focuses on the Tokyo stock market, not the foreign exchange market
With the collapse of the Nikkei index, the international hot money that has completed the cash-out operation will inevitably pour into the stock market again, raise the stock price after buying the bottom at a low price, blow up the capital bubble, and then sell high, and sweep the funds of domestic investors in the market For the Japanese government, stabilizing the stock market and preventing the emergence of capital bubbles is the key to stabilizing the domestic financial market
Small fluctuations in the currency market went unnoticed
Since Japan is a country that mainly processes and exports, and in order to expand the scale of exports, the yen must be kept at a low price, so an appropriate depreciation of the yen will be beneficial to the Japanese economy, which is in trouble
The stock market and the foreign exchange market do not exist independently, and they will influence and interact with each other
The Nikkei index continues to plummet, which will inevitably lead to the continued weakening of the yen exchange rate, which will increase the price of imported raw materials and reduce corporate profits, which will further lead to a sharp decline in the stock market, forming a positive feedback and producing a vicious circle The Nikkei index will rise reasonably, which will lead to the strengthening of the yen exchange rate, so that the price of export products will rise, the export volume will decrease, the export profit will increase, and the enterprise will obtain appropriate profits, so that the stock market will remain stable, form a negative feedback, and produce a virtuous circle The Nikkei index will continue to skyrocket, which will lead to the continued strength of the yen exchange rate. Export profits cannot make up for the losses caused by the decrease in exports and the decline in corporate profits, which leads to a sharp decline in the stock market and sharp fluctuations in the financial market, providing opportunities for financial speculators to speculate
Judging from several possible scenarios, the Japanese government must intervene to maintain market stability
On the afternoon of the 13th, Ozawa convened an emergency cabinet meeting to discuss the introduction of a temporary policy to maintain the financial market
In the face of turbulent financial markets, the Japanese government has been able to adopt very many measures to maintain stability
In the just-concluded fiscal year 2015-2016, Japan's budget deficit reached a record 47 trillion yen, and the budget for fiscal year 2016-2017 is still under discussion in the Diet, which is difficult to approve quickly
Introducing an administrative intervention bill is no less difficult than raising bailout funds
After an afternoon of discussions, no practical conclusions could be drawn
Ozawa also had to admit that unless the big domestic groups took action, they would not be able to deal with the surging international financial speculators
After the meeting, Ozawa spoke with Hatoyama on the phone and reported on the results of the cabinet's discussions
The ball was kicked to the foot of Hatoyama, and what to do next, Ozawa couldn't control
At this time, it was not the Japanese financial markets that really caught the eye, but a statement issued by the Japanese Foreign Ministry at 30 p.m
The content is brief: Japan will repair the burned navigation lighthouse on the Diaoyu Islands as soon as possible
As soon as the statement was issued, it immediately aroused heated discussions
It stands to reason that the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism is responsible for the restoration of navigation beacons, and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism should issue a notice and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should issue a statement stating that the restoration of navigation beacons is not a matter for Japan
Will China make concessions on this matter?
After receiving the diplomatic note from the Japanese ambassador, Huang Guowei immediately went to the head of state's office to report on the situation
"This is a test of our attitude," Ji Youguo said with a cold smile, "If we remain silent and acquiesce to Japan's repair of the navigation lighthouse, it will be tantamount to making major diplomatic concessions and acquiescing in Japan's administrative jurisdiction over the Diaoyu Islands."
"Even if the situation doesn't deteriorate, Japan is wary," Mr. Huang muttered
Ji Youguo smiled and shook his head, "What you say is also reasonable, if Japan is not vigilant, it will not let the wind test our attitude"
"The point is, our preparations are not yet in place"
"Time doesn't wait for me," Ji Youguo sighed, "The Ministry of Foreign Affairs released the news in the morning, and Japan reacted in the afternoon, indicating that the Japanese high-level has realized the seriousness of the situation and concluded that we will take decisive action, although we are still fighting a 'war of words', but it will not be long before we can really do it Now that we have released the news, we can't end up in vain, you go and prepare and issue a statement as soon as possible."
"An official statement?"
Ji Youguo nodded and said: "You personally come forward and resolutely oppose Japan's activities that infringe on China's territorial sovereignty on the Diaoyu Islands.
"I'm going to get ready to hold a press conference before 5 p.m."
Ji Youguo did not delay the precious time of the foreign minister, and after Huang Guowei left, he talked to Peng Maobang on the phone
"I read the news report that Japan is so arrogant that if we do not take immediate and decisive action to escalate the situation at this time, not only will the country lose face, but our foreign policy will also be questioned."
"Lao Peng, don't be so excited" Ji Youguo leaned back in his chair and took two puffs of his cigarette slowly, "I have arranged for Huang Guowei to prepare a sternly worded diplomatic statement, and strive to hold a press conference before five o'clock"
"Does it work?" Peng Maobang's tone was agitated, "If the diplomatic action had been effective, the problem would have been resolved long ago"
"I understand what you mean, otherwise I wouldn't have called you I want to know, if the diplomatic statement does not have an effect, is there any way to punish Japan without immediately detonating the conflict?"
The Chief of General Staff on the other end of the phone pondered for a while and said, "There must be a way, but I must be let go."
"Can you guarantee that the situation will not get out of control?"
"I don't dare to guarantee absolutely, I can only do my best"
After pondering for a while, Ji Youguo said: "Let's talk about the specific method"
"In order to repair the navigation lighthouse on the Diaoyu Islands, Japan must send ships and helicopters, and we can send the East China Sea Fleet to intercept it, and as long as the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force does not fire first, we can control the situation."
"Does it work?"
Peng Maobang hesitated for a while before he said: "Just intercepting the transport ship, the effect will not be too obvious, if necessary, we can take out a few Japanese submarines, let Japan know our means, this will expand the situation, whether it will detonate the war, it depends on whether Japan is willing to remain silent."
"Is there any other way?"
"The only way I can think of now is this," after a pause, Peng Maobang said again, "Old Ji, I know what you are thinking, since the conflict is unavoidable, we should start as soon as possible, even if Japan immediately sends ships to the Diaoyu Islands, the situation will not deteriorate within two to three days, we have already discussed what to do later."
Ji Youguo pondered for a while and said, "You're right, just do it."
After putting down the phone, the Führer walked to the window and looked out into the garden
It is not the excuses that detonate the war, but the interests
Damn it*
Today's 30 more, kill the first place on the update champion list, and beg for a monthly pass! (To be continued)