Chapter 181: Strategic Game
… Yi Chengyi when he was wandering around the grassroots troops. Wang Yuanqing is preparing for his trip to Moscow
The Madrid Foreign Ministers' Meeting was more than just a Quartet agreement. Yan Shanglong also had several bilateral meetings with Sullivan. Exchange of views at the top level. According to the news brought back by Yan Shanglong. The U.S. president is most concerned about the interests of U.S. companies in India and India's political system. It is understandable that American companies are the backstage pillars of the American shogunate, and if the interests of American companies cannot even be guaranteed, Blandino is not qualified to live in the White House; India's political system is directly related to the international reputation of the United States, and if it cannot guarantee the social values that the United States actively advocates, it will not want to point fingers at other countries in the future.
To get it. You have to give something.
Sullivan's position was clear: as long as the Republic made commitments on these two issues, the United States could make concessions in the Quad.
In fact. Yan Shanglong had already given Sullivan a promise in Madrid. Otherwise, the Quartet will not bear fruit.
When reporting the meeting to Wang Yuanqing, Yan Shanglong also clearly mentioned it. The concessions of the United States are only temporary. With the end of the war and the beginning of India's post-war reconstruction, the United States will certainly find ways to create trouble and fight for the interests of American companies in India.
on this. Wang Yuanqing also has the same opinion.
Although Sullivan made only two demands, there were many reasons for ambiguity.
For example, the interests of American companies in India. If the Republic's consortiums and corporations can conclude contracts with American companies to acquire operations in India before the end of the war. The problem is not very big yet. The problem is that it is almost impossible to buy all the operations of American companies in India. In other words, there will still be some American companies that will remain in India and participate in India's post-war reconstruction. As a result, the interests of American companies in India are a long-term issue, and sooner or later more related problems will arise. According to the consistent style of the US Government, as long as India's post-war reconstruction work begins, it will interfere in India's political construction on the pretext of safeguarding the interests of American enterprises in India. As a result, it is not difficult to imagine that as long as the United States finds an entry point in the political question, the Indian question will become very complicated, and even the efforts of the republic will be undone. Combined with Sullivan's question about India's political system, Wang Yuanqing has every reason to believe that the United States has made efforts in this regard and has made good preparations. As long as the Republic shows the slightest flaw, it will allow the United States to find an opportunity to fight back.
Thinking of this, Wang Yuanqing did not hold out any hope for the Moscow brain meeting.
Fundamentally speaking, what the United States wants is not a democratic and free India, but an India that can plunge the republic into the abyss.
To judge the intentions of the United States, we must look at the consistent policy of the United States.
After the Japanese war, the United States spared no effort to "support" India. Nominally, it was to rebuild Japan, but it was to allow India to contain the Republic instead of Japan. After the conflict in southern Tibet, the United States intensified its efforts, not only selling a large amount of advanced weapons and equipment to India, but also helping India build a modern national defense and military system. If the United States is counting on India to defeat the republic militarily, surely few people believe it. Because even the United States is not sure to defeat the republic, why should India defeat the republic? The United States has only one purpose in arming India, and that is to make the Republic have to invest more forces in national defense construction, and it will have to solve the last immediate threat through a war. In fact. The purpose of the United States was achieved, and it was perfect. According to the analysis of some Western scholars, the impact of the Indian war on the republic can only be compensated for by the old years, or even the years of strength. From the standpoint of the United States, what is needed is the time from the old year to the power year. In other words, the United States did not think that India would be able to defeat the republic militarily. Otherwise, after taking office, Bran's concession will not gradually reduce his support for India, and control the flow of cutting-edge technology and advanced equipment into India.
Having clearly seen the essence of the United States' use of India, it is not difficult to understand the current intentions of the United States.
Rurajapani's India can cause trouble for the republic, and Suvos's India can also cause trouble for the republic, but in different ways.
To put it bluntly, it is to use India's post-war reconstruction to drag down the republic.
The United States has repeatedly made a fuss about the issue of post-war reconstruction, making it clear that it wants the republic to make concessions to India's political system. According to Wang Yuanqing's guess, as long as he makes concessions in Moscow, the United States will propose to hold a general election immediately after the end of the war, and it will be held under the supervision of an international organization. It seems that this proposal is very beautiful, and it will also be widely supported by international public opinion, especially in the West, and the United States will once again become the defender of democracy and a free world. In fact, if you look deeper, you can see that the United States has not only earned fame, but also made real money. To put it simply, a general election held after the end of the war will certainly not be a fair election. With or without international supervision, the vast majority of Indians are struggling to fill their bellies. Who will still care about the election, and who will still take the election as a thing? Let's not forget that the United States has the most abundant grain in the world, and it also has the most strategic grain reserves in the world. In other words, as long as the United States is willing to spend its money, it can use the food problem, or more precisely, the humanitarian aid issue, to change India's general election, so that those Indians who only care about filling their bellies will give up long-term interests for the sake of immediate interests. As a result, it is conceivable that candidates supported by the United States have a high probability of winning the election, thus making India a pawn of the United States once again. Jian Shukou is four concave, with concave 3 Bu Tian pay advertising Shao Li salary cautious "Gap Li Tea Jealousy can be drained in other ways to influence the Indian general election, and the result will not be bad to be rejected
If it really goes on according to the wishes of the United States, the war in India will basically be fought in vain, and the blood of thousands of soldiers of the republic will be shed in vain, not to mention using India to solve the problem of the aging of the republic, and it will be a blessing in misfortune not to fight a second war with India within a few years. Undoubtedly, such a result is undoubtedly the greatest disaster for the republic. You must know that at least it will take a few more years, and the Republic will be able to basically solve the problem of aging, and it will take another year to completely solve the problem of aging. In other words, if an all-out war breaks out again within the next year, the republic will lose the opportunity to compete with the United States for world hegemony for nearly 100 years in the future.
As a politician, it is impossible for Wang Yuanqing not to understand this truth.
As a matter of fact. Before Yan Shanglong returned from Madrid, Wang Yuanqing knew that he would never be able to negotiate
Step.
The problem now is that the republic is facing not only the United States, but also the European Union, Russia, and other re-homes that want to benefit from India.
Can the republic not let it out in the slightest?
It is obviously impossible, and not giving in is tantamount to making the whole world hostile.
Not to mention the current republic, even the United States in its heyday did not dare to be an enemy of the whole world.
The problem before Wang Yuanqing is that the Republic must make concessions, but the United States must not be allowed to gain any benefits from it.
Arguably. This is a problem that requires great wisdom to solve.
Thankfully. Facts have long proved that Wang Yuanqing not only has such wisdom, but also has such ability.
Although there is no evidence to prove that Wang Yuanqing had the foresight to anticipate that the United States, Europe, and Russia would intervene in the post-war Indian political system before the outbreak of the war, judging from the series of performances of the Republic, even if Wang Yuanqing did not anticipate the situation, he had already taken precautions.
Yan Shanglong's reply at the four-party talks is telling.
According to the Republic's vision, India's post-war political reconstruction could begin only in the middle of the year at the earliest. Until then, the main task is to lift hundreds of millions of Indians out of poverty and help India restore normalcy. On the surface. The Republic made appropriate concessions in a justifiable and advantageous situation. Commitment to determine India's political system by means of democratic elections. In fact, the republic did not make concessions and made no commitments to India's political system. More importantly, in the context of humanitarianism, this move not only has the support of the European Union, but also leaves more room for the republic to maneuver. To put it simply, the war will not end with the end of a large-scale military operation, after which the Republic will continue to station troops in India in the name of providing humanitarian aid to India and undertake most of the humanitarian aid work, thereby consolidating the position of the Provisional Government of India.
No doubt. This is only in the good of the Republic.
Whether it is the humanitarian aid provided by the United States, the European Union, or any other country, because only the Republic and Pakistan and other allies have the right to station troops in India, the responsibility for distributing humanitarian aid to the Indians must fall on the Republic and other armies, and the Indians only know whose humanitarian aid is provided. without knowing who is providing humanitarian aid; Thus it is only known that it was the Republic and other countries that helped them out of the disaster.
At this time. The United States also knows its own suffering.
Under the premise of humanitarianism, if the United States refuses to provide humanitarian aid, it will inevitably be blamed, and the United States providing humanitarian aid is tantamount to making a wedding dress for the republic. Of course, the United States will certainly make a fuss about humanitarian aid, such as asking for the dispatch of humanitarian aid personnel to India, so as to take this opportunity to exert influence on the Indian people, and if the Republic refuses to allow the American humanitarian aid team to enter India, the United States can take advantage of this to cause trouble, discount humanitarian aid or have disputes with the Republic.
Exactly. When thinking about helping India rebuild. Wang Yuanqing did not count the United States
Portion.
With or without humanitarian assistance from the United States, the Republic has the capacity to stabilize India.
Hereunto. Basically, you can see Wang Yuanqing's layout in India.
The sooner the war ended, the more time the republic had to work in India. As expected, Wang Yuanqing will spare no effort to support Suvos, and use Suworths's political ideas, persecution by the Indian government, forced exile, and the establishment of a democratic political party to make Suvos a national hero of India, so as to scandalize the former Indian government controlled by traditional forces and make the Indian people believe it. The war, which had brought great disaster to India, had not only not been directed against them, but had also given them a new future. Of course. The key is post-war reconstruction, and as long as post-war reconstruction is done well, the Indian people can see hope for a prosperous life. Naturally, the republican ** team can be molded into the image of the "Indian National Liberation Army", which can fundamentally eliminate the hatred of the Indian people for the republic, and even the majority of the Indian people can believe that the nationalist sentiments against the republic propagated by the previous government are completely wrong, and the republic is not only not an enemy of India, but also a friend of India. It is a friend who can help the vast majority of Indians live a better life.
In order to achieve this, in addition to the huge investment, it is necessary to have enough time.
When Wang Yuanqing arranged tasks for Pei Chengyi, he emphasized again and again. Large-scale military operations must be concluded within the year precisely because time is too short.
According to Wang Junqing's plan, even if the military operation is carried out in the new year, it will only be half a year before Yan Shanglong's consternation at the meeting of the foreign ministers of the four countries, that is, the holding of democratic elections in India.
Arguably. In the eyes of the vast majority of people, half a year will not be able to change the attitude of Indians towards the republic.
Exactly. Sullivan accepted this condition, and the meeting of the Quartet foreign ministers was completed.
Here's the key, is half a year enough?
Not to mention that other people don't believe it, even Wang Yuanqing doesn't have it
In the absence of a decade or eight years, that is, almost a generation, the Indian people will not change their attitude towards the republic at all. To be precise, when the Indian people need food provided by the republic, they will change their attitude towards the republic, and as long as the problem of food is solved, the attitude of the Indian people will change again
According to Gu Weimin's plan for India's post-war reconstruction. It also lasts for the old year, not just half a year.
No doubt. It is not possible to wait until after the old year to hold democratic elections in India.
Since we can't wait, we have to do something in this half a year.
Wang Yuanqing didn't want to do something, but wanted to do a lot of things.
Before the meeting of the foreign ministers of the four parties, Wang Yuanqing asked Li Cunxun to arrange for Liu Xiaobin to go to New Delhi, and then arranged for the Military Intelligence Bureau to closely monitor the activities of the Indian interim government in the name of protecting personal security, paying special attention to the temporary local officials sent by the Indian interim government to the occupied areas. Because India's social relations are extremely special, Wang Yuanqing also specially exhorted Li Cunxun to pay close attention to the non-governmental forces in various parts of India, adopt the method of supporting and suppressing the Hindustan ethnic minorities, and first win the support of the Indian ethnic minorities and then the support of the Hindustan enlightened faction. In order to complete the task arranged by Yuan, Li Cunxun made a special trip to New Delhi to personally deploy the work. In fact, even if there were no tasks arranged by Yuan, Li Cunxun would have attached great importance to India's work, for the simple reason that post-war India would certainly not be a centralized India, but a federal India with relatively large local powers.
Rumors that the republic would introduce federalism in India have long been around.
Soon after the outbreak of the war, a netizen who claimed to be an "insider" commented on the Internet, claiming that after the war ended, the republic would never dismember India, but would implement a federal system in India that would place more emphasis on local autonomy, thereby weakening the power of the central government and preventing India from returning to extremism. To prove this point, the "insider" focuses on two truths. First, as mentioned earlier, in order to avoid being threatened again, although the best way is to dismember India into dozens of small countries, in consideration of the republic's own interests and the pressure of the international community, Wang Yuanqing will certainly not advocate the dismemberment of India, but will do everything in his power to weaken the notification power of the Indian central government, so that India will become a close confederation with a nominally de facto federal system. Second, it is due to the special national conditions of India, that is, ethnic minorities account for more than half of the total population, and almost every ethnic minority wants to gain autonomy and even independence. From the perspective of stabilizing the social situation in India, Wang Yuanqing will also give priority to India's ethnic minorities and implement a federal system. Federalism is combined with confederation. This will inevitably lead to the inability of the central power in India to control the local power and thus become a strong state.
What the MIA is doing in India is actually moving towards that goal.
From this point of view, let alone half a year, 4 months is enough.
The reason is simple, the United States certainly does not want to see India become a loose India, an India that no longer threatens. From the interests of the United States. Only a united India, an India capable of concentrating hundreds of millions of people, can pose a threat to the republic and thus help the United States contain the republic.
While it is certain that the majority of Hindustani would support the American idea of reuniting India with a central government with ethnic Hindustani at its core, almost all minorities would not agree to this idea, especially in the Republic with sufficient sincerity. After they have tasted the benefits of autonomy, they will resolutely resist centralized power. In such a situation, a general election will be held, and more than half of Indians will vote for the interim government of India.
Half a year is enough time for India's ethnic minorities to taste the benefits of self-government.
It can be seen from this that Wang Yuanqing's overall deployment is linked one link after another, and there is no flaw.
Of course, there are few secrets in this kind of strategic game, and it only needs to be empathetic, and any politician with a little bit of intelligence can guess what the other side is thinking. It can also be seen from the policy of the United States that Sullivan is taking every step of the way, and every time he is forced to make concessions. The situation in the EU is about the same, it does not get benefits, it will definitely not make concessions, as soon as it gets what it wants, it will immediately shift the front.
In the absence of secrets, the Moscow Brain Meeting will certainly not be harmonious.
It can be said unceremoniously that the meeting of the foreign ministers of the Quartet in Madrid is only a warm-up game for the "Indian game", and the four countries and regions with the most voice have already figured out each other's cards.
The question now is whether the brains of the four countries and regions will be able to achieve greater results in Moscow.
Wang Yuanqing did not hold out much hope before the old moon flew to the sun, and in his opinion, the Moscow Brain Meeting would at most implement the results of the Madrid Foreign Ministers' Meeting.
It wasn't until a few hours before he left for Moscow that a piece of news changed Wang Yuanqing's opinion.