For Gu Weimin's opinion, Pei Chengyi had to pour his stomach and lead the heat... It's all said. 【Reading.com】

The Kurdish issue has a long history, and no major country has ever campaigned for the survival, freedom and rights of tens of millions of Kurds: First, the Kurdish issue has involved too many countries and stakeholders, resulting in a complicated situation. No great power wants to wade into this muddy water; Second, it is difficult for the Kurdish issue to bring substantial benefits to the big countries, that is, helping the Kurds to establish an independent state is not beneficial to any big country. Of these two factors, the latter is more prominent and is the key reason why the Kurdish issue has been unresolved for a long time.

In fact, until now, these two issues have remained prominent.

In the words of Pei Chengyi: the situation in the Middle East is complicated enough, and there is no need to add a Kurdish state. It is impossible for the United States to help the Kurds build a state, and the republic should not help the Kurds to build a state. The reason is very simple, the Kurdish issue involves Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Armenia, whether it is the United States or the Republic, as long as they help the Kurds to establish a state, even if they can get a new ally, they will not be able to compensate for the loss of their original allies and even offending Russia.

The problem is, in the Zero game. Sometimes you have to keep an eye on your opponent's losses.

There can be no doubt that the US authorities are eyeing the loss of the republic.

Of the countries concerned with the Kurdish question, three are allies of the republic, Iraq is not allied with the republic, and can only be considered quasi-allies, while of the three countries with the closest ties, two are allies and quasi-allies of the republic. In other words, as long as the United States is willing to sacrifice Turkey, it can take out the three allies of the republic. If we take into account the effects of leaving the place of death and resurrection, the United States even has reason to believe that Turkey will not turn against its old club because of the Kurdish issue. Counting the increasingly unfavorable situation in the Middle East for the United States, the US authorities will have to make full use of the Kurdish issue before the Republic takes up the big stick and smashes it against Israel.

In order to speak more thoroughly, Pei Chengyi made a detailed analysis.

First, there are the parties to the Kurdish question.

Although more than half of the Kurds are located in Turkey, and they are spread over a vast area from the Gulf of Atalya to Lake Van and about a quarter of Turkey's land area, nearly half of the Kurds are still located in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Armenia. Due to the influence of the ethnic policy of the former Soviet Union, there are not many Kurds in Armenia, and there are no settlements, so the relationship between Armenia and the Kurdish issue is not very large. The key is Iran, Iraq and Syria, especially the two Irans.

The Kurds in Iraq are mainly concentrated in the northern region centered on Mosul, Kirkuk and Erbil, accounting for about one-fifth of Iraq's land area, and the Socrates River valley is still one of the few agricultural areas in Iraq. The Kurds in Iran are mainly distributed in Ilam, Lorestan Province, Kermansha Province, Hamadan Province, Kurdistan Province, West Azerbaijan Province and East Azerbaijan Province, although the Iranian authorities have adopted the so-called "dispersed policy" in response to the Kurdish problem, that is, except for Kurdistan Province, there are no Kurdish settlement areas in other provinces, and they try to disperse the Kurds to various places, but only one Kurdistan province is enough for Iran. Because the province is not only rich in resources, two of Iran's three rare metal deposits are in the province, close to Iraq, and not far to the east is Teh-Hei.

There are less than 10,000 Kurds in Syria, and the Kurdish problem is not serious. The problem is that the Kurdish-populated province of Aleppo in Syria is a military stronghold facing Turkey, and the population of the province is just over 40,000. The Kurds occupied Xu. That is, if the Kurdish issue breaks out, Syria will not have a good time. Thus, while the Kurdish issue can be a disaster for Turkey, it can also be a disaster for Iran, Iraq, and Syria. If the Kurdish issue erupts, it will certainly greatly affect the republic's power in the Middle East.

The second is the relationship between the United States and Turkey.

The Cold War period between the United States and the Soviet Union. Because of the strategic need to encircle and suppress the Soviet Union and the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Turkey has a very important place in the NATO bloc with the United States as the center, and it was once called the "southern gate of NATO". The fact that the United States is able to claim hegemony in the Middle East has a lot to do with Turkey's blocking the southward pace of the former Soviet Union.

Without Turkey's role as a barrier, the United States would not have been able to dominate the Middle East as it pleased. The tearful book bar has fewer concave factories, and there are many bad salaries

It is precisely for this reason that Turkey's position in the US alliance system has plummeted with the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia's long-term malaise. After the end of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, to be precise, after the Gulf War, because the United States repeatedly used the Kurdish issue to deal with the Saddam regime, and after the overthrow of the Saddam regime, the United States supported a Kurdish president in Iraq, so the US-Turkish relations were greatly affected, for example, in the Iraq War, Turkey did not open its military bases to the United States. Until the Iran war, Turkey did not actively cooperate because it was worried that the United States would make a fuss about the Kurdish issue again. In fact, at that time the United States did have the idea of using the Kurds against the Iranian authorities. According to the relevant information released after the war, after the US military occupied the province of Khuzestan in southern Iran, it was difficult to penetrate deep into the hinterland of Iran because it was blocked by the Zagros Mountains in the north, so the US military once wanted to use the Turkish military base to open up a second battlefield in western Iran, and the armed forces gathered in the western region of Iran to "seek the Baijanis and Kurds, and use the strategy of "Iraq to deal with Iran with Iraq"

It can be said that for a considerable period of time, Turkey has been in a dispensable position in the global strategy of the United States.

In a sense, despite Turkey's repeated refusal to fulfill its obligations as an ally, the United States still has not turned its back on this state founded by Turkic descendants, and is largely thinking about Israel, which is the only Islamic state that maintains close relations with Israel, and a fierce enemy of all Middle Eastern countries. The so-called enemy of the enemy is the friend, and the presence of Turkey greatly relieves the pressure on Israel. Among other things, Syria would have to put one-third of its forces on the northern border, Iran would have to put nearly one-third of its forces on the western border, and even Iraq, which had only recently begun to expand its military strength, would have to focus on the north. It is no exaggeration to say that without Turkey, or if Turkey is not an ally of the United States, Israel would have a much harder time.

The point is that America's number one ally in the Middle East will always be Israel.

Let's put it bluntly. At a time when Israel's very existence is at stake. The United States will definitely use Turkey as a shield.

This is the case with the present women, and the very existence of Israel is seriously threatened.

Although Israel taught its most disobedient neighbor in the Syrian-Israeli war for 8 years, and once again wrote King David as the Jewish King of Israel, the spades in the playing cards are his legend. But this victory did not make the situation of the Jews safer, but rather a serious threat to Israel's survival because of Syria's painful post-war efforts. According to the general understanding of the international community, the Syrian-Israeli war is only "a war of war." "In less than a year, Israel will face challenges from the Arab world, and indeed from the Islamic world as a whole, and the survival of the Jewish people will be tested the most severe since the Second World War. While this comment is likely to be deliberately motivated by the Western news media, it is a very apt reflection of Israel's situation, that is, the awakening and rising Arab states will not allow Jews to dominate the Middle East.

In this way, the United States has no choice but to sacrifice Turkey and create a line for Israel

Machine.

Finally, the question is whether Turkey will turn against the United States because of this.

The United States has repeatedly "joked" about Turkey's national interests, but little Turkey has not turned its face with the United States, and at most the United States has to have a child's temper when it is in need, which has a lot to do with Turkey's situation.

Historically, Turkey used to be a very powerful country. As the end of the Roman Empire, the historical Ottoman Turkish Empire spanned three continents, Asia, Africa and Europe, covering an area of nearly 20 million square kilometers and tens of thousands of miles, making it one of the largest empires in the world at that time. Even in modern times, Turkey is still a very powerful country. During World War I, Turkey was a heavy member of the Axis powers. The glorious history is matched by a bleak reality. After the First World War, Turkey was in rapid decline, not only dismembered by the Western powers such as Britain and France, but also encroached upon by Russia. By the time the bourgeois national revolution led by Kemal broke out, Turkey had been reduced to a small country entrenched in Asia Minor, which had nothing to do with its former glory.

Comparatively speaking, the rationale has a greater impact on the pointed ears.

After World War II, Turkey quickly defected to the United States and joined the NATO bloc, becoming the only country in the bloc with an oriental character. Arguably. Turkey has no other choice. At the time of its accession to the NATO bloc, Turkey would be surrounded by the Soviet Union in several directions, except for the Arab countries in the south, which were still under British and French colonial rule, and if it did not quickly find a backer who could compete with the Soviet Union, Turkey would also become a red country. With the historical relationship between the two countries, even if the influence of ideology is not considered. Turkey was also not going to fall to the USSR. The ensuing wave of independence in the Third World made Turkey's situation even more precarious. After the Islamic Revolution, except for Greece in the southwest. There is not a single "friendly country" in the surrounding areas of Turkey. "In fact, Greece is not a friendly country, because the two countries have always had a dispute over territorial waters, and the contradictions over Cyprus are very serious. The tear book bar dumps the concave coffee factory less, more chopping, more

All in all, Turkey has no choice but to turn to the United States.

Even in the turn of the century, when the republic marched firmly into the Middle East, Turkey had no choice. In a sense, all the achievements of Ottoman Turkey were due to the Tang Empire in the east, because this great empire that once defeated European countries was founded by the Turkic people who were beaten by the Tang Empire and fled to Asia Minor. Even if historical issues and national feelings are not taken into account, the Turkish authorities have to consider the practical question, that is, whether the republic will use Turkey as a springboard and reach its tentacles into the European continent after it enters the Middle East.7 If the answer is yes, then Turkey must be prepared and build a courtyard wall to block the fire before it reaches its own courtyard. Other words. Turkey must do everything in its power to prevent the republic's entry into the Middle East.

Obviously, this is why Turkey is like-minded with the United States.

The problem is that even if the United States abandons Turkey, Turkey has no other choice.

Imagine that if the United States abandons Turkey, it means that the United States is no longer able to stop the Republic's expansion in the Middle East. That is, most of the countries to the south and east of Turkey have thrown themselves into the arms of the republic and are facing the threat of being outflanked by the republic arc. Under such circumstances, the most paid children's day in the Turks and Yuan Yuan washed the stream and shook the concave and "lied that he was only stealing from the United States and doing his best to help the United States." That is, to help Israel "only for the authorities of the Ten Ears, as long as Israel remains." The republic would have to focus on that narrow strip of land on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean, which was less than 30,000 square kilometers, and would not go north for the time being, and would not pose a serious threat to Turkey's national interests.

The Turkish authorities are able to figure out this issue, and the US authorities will naturally not be confused.

In Pei's words, this is the most critical point.

As long as the US authorities believe that no matter what they do, as long as the United States protects Israel, Turkey will follow suit, and will ensure Israel's safety at the expense of Turkey's interests when necessary.

More importantly, there is a good chance that the United States will adopt a proactive strategy accordingly.

That is, the United States will take the initiative to detonate the Kurdish issue.

While this would cause the U.S. authorities a lot of trouble and even affect their foreign policy, it would bring an advantage that no American politician could refuse, and that would disrupt the republic's Middle East strategy when it was still unstable and ready to do so.

As long as the United States seizes the opportunity, the United States will have an 80 percent chance of winning in the Middle East.

You must know that in the strategic game, eighty percent certainty means nine out of ten, or even ten out of ten.

Considering the domestic political situation in the United States, Republican President Randes, who has just moved into the White House, will definitely be tempted. You know, the president who shouted the slogan of "restoring America's international prestige" entered the White House and lived in the shadow of his predecessor, Democratic President Branch. In the words of current political commentators, with Brandeno laying a good foundation for the domestic economy, if Landers wants to change the dismal face of the Republican Party in the recent years, he will be stunned to do several vigorous things during his first term.

Don't forget that Republican presidents are the best at waging war.

After World War II, with the exception of the Korean War and the Vietnam War, which were the masterpieces of Democratic presidents, almost all the foreign wars that the United States experienced since then, from military blitzes such as the overthrow of the Haitian president, to small-scale local conflicts such as the capture of Panama, to large-scale regional wars such as the Gulf War, to large-scale local wars such as the Iranian War, have been the masterpieces of Republican presidents. In American terms, the greatest ability of a Democratic president is to help the United States make money. And the Republican president's greatest ability is to help the United States spend money. Of course, war is the most expensive means.

In Pei Chengyi's words, if Landes's personal wishes are taken into account, the probability of a war is close to 100 percent.

Of course, Gu Weimin did not deny Pei Chengyi's judgment.

The point is, how should the republic respond?

When Gu Weimin bluntly raised this question, Pei Chengyi knew that he not only had to report the situation to Yuan, but also had to make suggestions.

After pondering for a while, Pei Chengyi said: "This is indeed a crisis, since it is a crisis, it is the coexistence of danger and opportunity. For us, there is nothing more dangerous than the issue of the oil Kurds, which has led to political instability in Iran and Syria. Eventually, the regime changed hands. Opportunities are also here, if it is not Iran and Syria that are in turmoil, but Turkey, it is not us who should have the headache, but the United States. ”

"Now that the United States has taken the initiative, the likelihood of such a scenario is not great. The tear book bar dumps the concave factory less, more salary, more

Pei Chengyi nodded and said, "Therefore, I think that before we find the most ideal counterattack point, we should focus on strategic defense." The specific approach should be divided into two aspects, one is aimed at the political situation between Iran and Syria, and the other is directly aimed at the Kurdish issue. The former has only one important point, namely, to maintain stability in the three countries at all costs and not to provoke social unrest. The key to the latter lies in the means we take, that is, whether the Kurdish problem is an internal matter, or an international one. If it's an international issue. Then we have to come up with a solution that works, and one that the United States cannot come up with. Thus responding to the strategic offensive of the United States with proactive defensive measures. ”

"So what do you think is a better solution?"

"This" Pei Chengyi secretly smiled bitterly and said, "In the final analysis, the Kurdish issue is a question of a nation's pursuit of basic rights, and the realization of the basic rights of the nation does not necessarily require an independent state, and giving appropriate autonomy can achieve the same goal." Therefore, I believe that the most ideal solution would be to establish a cross-border "Kurdish autonomous region" in the Silddis-populated area, which would be composed of several parts, and the relevant countries would have the sovereignty of their respective parts, but would not interfere with the Kurdish autonomy, so as to ensure the interests of all parties. ”

Gu Weimin was stunned for a moment, then said with a smile: "This is a whimsical formula

"Something is better than nothing, and the United States is unlikely to come up with such a solution

"That's true, as long as Landers didn't burn out his head with a high fever, he wouldn't have done it."

"What's more, Turkey has the largest Kurdish population and the widest distribution in Turkey, and as long as it can get past the autonomous region-wide issue, it can put pressure on Turkey."

"The result?"

"The result?"

"After doing this, what can we achieve, or can we achieve our goal?"

Pei Chengyi was stunned for a moment, because Gu Weimin's question was very level.