In the next few days, after Yang Rui carefully sorted out his thoughts, he invited Zhang Taiyan and Wang Ji to a banquet at home on the evening of one day - at this time, Dongbian Dao was his fiefdom, and during this time, because he was seriously ill, the local celebrities, gentry, and Orion people did not send anything less. According to the housekeeper, you can't eat all these things for a few years. This time, Zhang Taiyan and Wang Ji came together, just in time to set up a flowing water banquet and eat from dusk to midnight.

Although Yang Rui was a little emaciated after the serious illness, his spirit was still excellent. After welcoming King Zhang and Wang into the flower hall with a smile, he asked with a smile: "Uncle Mei has been handling state affairs alone recently, how do you feel, is this prime minister doing well?" ”

Zhang Taiyan is a madman, but he is on the stage, and the officials below do not have the coercion of Yang Rui, and at the same time he often ignores some details, the state affairs are said to be less than before, but the Cai case is still being heard, and it is a big deal if the officials who were killed are replenished, and it is also an eventful time abroad, so he is a little busy during this time. Seeing Yang Rui ask with a smile at this time, Zhang Taiyan immediately twisted his beard and sighed: "I just quarreled with the French ambassador, they... They are so deceitful! ”

"Is it the Ruhr in Germany?" Yang Rui asked while inviting them to sit down and eat food.

"Exactly." Zhang Taiyan nodded, and he said loudly: "They know that they won't get anything from the Ruhr, but they want to send troops over, and it's been a few months, and they haven't withdrawn their troops yet." In doing so, they will provoke the anger of the Germans, and in the end they may have to go to war again, and the result will be a huge number of casualties, countless people and money. It's stupid! ”

"The French are dying, so why bother with them." Yang Rui thought about the situation in Europe that operated according to history, and also thought about how the international situation would develop after domestic adjustments. I was a little happy to hear about the Ruhr crisis. But I don't really care much about France.

"But is it really good to have another war in Europe?" Zhang Taiyan said. "The United States is already strong, another big war in Europe. He is bound to succeed Britain as the world hegemon, which is not a good thing for us. ”

Zhang Taiyan obviously has a better impression of Britain. In his words, it is that Britain only likes to do business, as long as everyone can make money, he doesn't care about your internal affairs; But the United States is different, the United States is born with an under-pumping appearance, and it likes to point fingers everywhere, if ordinary people point fingers, it would be fine, but China, Japan, and North Korea together cannot pump the United States, so this American fly 'buzzing and ......buzzing' is flying around and screaming. Upsetting -- On one occasion, U.S. Ambassador to China Rainsch quietly met with several Mongolian youths in the YMCA and agreed with their idea of establishing a Mongolian state.

Zhang Taiyan said this, and Yang Rui said with a smile: "It's not wrong for Uncle Mei to think like this, but what if the Americans start a war in Asia without participating in the war in Europe?" Even if the European war is not good, but with the European top bag, we are at least safe. ”

"Then what if the Americans finish fighting Europe and fight us?" Zhang Taiyan asked.

"This ......" Yang Rui was stunned by the question, he actually had this kind of worry, and when he saw Zhang Taiyan asking, he only said: "So we hope that Europe, to be exact, should be Germany." She is the only one who has the power to go to war, and to break off diplomatic relations with her before she shows signs of going to war, so as to save the international community from putting the blame for Germany's war on our side afterwards. ”

"If you want to add sin, there is no excuse." Zhang Taiyan didn't say anything yet. Wang Jitong sighed, he sighed and said: "Actually, do we really want to risk war with the United States in order to maintain the Sino-Japanese alliance?" ”

"Hmm." Yang Rui nodded heavily. "If Japan is not for my use. It will be used by others. ”

"But Japan is now extremely hostile to both the United States and Russia!" Wang Ji is the same as him, his diplomatic strategy towards Yang Rui. In particular, I don't understand the strategy toward Japan, but I saw it today. I want to ask why we should not hesitate to make enemies of the United States in order to maintain the Sino-Japanese alliance.

"Hatred is even more important to form an alliance to prevent Japan from rashly starting a war against the United States." Yang Rui said seriously. "Think about it, the United States and Japan went to war, although the Japanese Navy engaged in a nine-stage attack, but the final result is self-evident. Can we sit back and watch Japan fall, and then let the Americans prop up a pro-American government right under our noses? This is clearly a more dangerous existence than the Philippines. If we do, the best thing we can do is to embrace Christianity throughout the country and let Americans do whatever they want. ”

"How is this possible!" Zhang Taiyan said in surprise. He has always thought that Yang Rui is a very combative person, and he will give in if he doesn't want to.

"How could it be?" Yang Rui smiled bitterly. "Japan and the United States are allied, so what are we going to fight? Is it possible to raid Tokyo and occupy the Japanese island before Japan is defeated? This is not as good as a fight between the Sino-Japanese alliance and the United States. ”

"What if China and Japan are not aligned, and Japan does not go to war with the United States?" What Yang Rui said was only the possibility of Japan starting a war against the United States, but in fact, there was another possibility.

"Then think about Spain." "Spain did not have an actual conflict with the United States at that time, but the Spanish-American War still happened, and the United States was in an economic crisis at that time. The U.S. economy seems to be booming now, but in fact, the root cause was buried as early as World War I. She is now barely supporting the economy through early consumption, and once early consumption ends, the economy will naturally collapse. The United States will be plunged into an economic crisis that is even more terrible than it was before the Spanish-American War, and the crisis will spread all over the world.

The economy will influence and even determine politics. Once the economy is in recession, the political situation of all countries will change drastically, not to mention other countries, if the United States cannot automatically get out of the crisis, it will have to go to war, and he is worth fighting, who else but China and Japan? ”

"But didn't the Intelligence Bureau say that there was a possibility of war between Britain and the United States?" After staying for a while, Zhang Taiyan spoke.

"The conflict between Britain and the United States is only a conflict of the market, that is, the conflict between the British Empire's failure to open consumption to the United States and forgiveness of the market, and this conflict is not unsolvable, after all, Britain is the same as the same culture, the same species, and the same religion, and industry will not pose a mortal threat to the United States. China and Japan and the United States are pagan cultures, and there is deadly competition in industry, and neither conflict can be resolved by lowering tariffs and opening up the market to the United States. Unless we tear down our factories, how can the Americans let us go? Yang Rui looked at the two people who were listening carefully, and said helplessly.

"That's going to be a war, and... And when will it happen? Zhang Taiyan was a little stammered. Before the third cabinet, Yang Rui raised the theory of the US threat. But at that time, most people thought that this was a statement that he was going to be re-elected. Now that Zhang Taiyan has been in power for half a year, he understands the conflicts Yang Rui said better than anyone else. Not to mention anything else, just look at China's balance of payments -- China's countless mechanical and electrical products and chemical products are sold all over the world. In exchange for a huge amount of foreign exchange. 2.8 million radios were exported, accounting for 80 percent of the world's total production. Automobiles, refrigerators, air conditioners, plastics, these products are more popular all over the world and sell well all over the world. In the long run, in less than 20 years, it will only take 10 years for China to surpass any European country and become the second in the world.

"If the economic crisis had occurred in the 18th year of Shenwu, it would have been the term of the 31st president of the United States, and the president would have thought that the crisis would pass as soon as before, so there would be no situation in this term, and even Sino-US relations would be closer. But wait until the next president. This is not the case, at this time there are four years of economic crisis, and anyone with a discerning eye knows that it is not a natural recovery alone or that the United States itself can pull the recovery, so the word war will jump out of the minds of Americans.

If someone else fights a war and sells their own goods, it will definitely be the best, as it was during the First World War. But if the whole world is too peaceful, maybe the United States will end up in person. Yang Rui said, "My judgment is that if the world is peaceful." If the 32nd president of the United States does not provoke a war, the 33rd will provoke it. The first dangerous moment was towards the end of the 32nd term, when the president was still unable to revive the economy, and then he was blamed by the people and the party. Case. In order to be re-elected, he might as well provoke a war or conflict, which can revive the economy. Wouldn't it be beautiful to be able to guarantee re-election? ”

"The thirty-second president?" Zhang Taiyan is not familiar with the US presidential term. But Wang Jitong is familiar, he explained. "If there is an economic crisis in the eighteenth year of Shenwu. Then the current President Coolidge should be re-elected, and the term of office of the 31st president is from the 18th year of Shenwu to the 22nd year of Shenwu. The thirty-second president will be from the 22nd to the 25th year of Shenwu. The president of the United States ran for election a year in advance, so it is likely that the time of the statement will be 24 years of Shenwu, no later than the middle of 25 years. ”

"Twenty-four years of Shenwu?" Zhang Taiyan was taken aback. "It's only been twelve years."

"Hmm. Twelve years. Yang Rui smiled and nodded, "This is the first dangerous moment, even if this level is over, if the economy still can't recover and the world is still peaceful, then the Americans will still think about going to war." If there is no war, the United States will gradually be surpassed by us and Japan, and she will no longer be a representative of a new economy and a new industry, and the Americans will treat our company manager the same way the British textile factory owners before World War I treat our company manager as they did with German factory managers, and they will never be reconciled! ”

After Yang Rui finished speaking, he shrugged his shoulders and said with a wry smile: "I don't know how many times I have said this, but no one believes it." Some, like the Chinese people, fully believe that the United States is a democracy, the embodiment of a just civilization. He is confusing Western justice with what we often call justice.

The East has always refused to save people outside its own ethnic group, while the West has never saved people who do not belong to the same sect, not to mention that we and Westerners are of different religions and races, and by no means of the same kind, what is the basis for justice? Besides, what is justice? In our view, morality is justice, but in the eyes of Westerners, advantage is justice. Morality and justice are simply things that cannot be beaten with eight poles, but they are said to be true. ”

"It actually means that since the beginning of the 24th year of Shenwu, we have been in a crisis of war with the United States?" Wang Jitong ignored Yang Rui's complaints, he just wanted to know Yang Rui's judgment.

"That's pretty much it. The Washington Naval Treaty maintains the balance between Asia and the Pacific, and with it, the possibility of a major war is not high, but it can only be managed for 15 years, that is, it expires at the end of the 26th year of Shenwu. If there had not been a large-scale war before, the second conference on the limitation of naval armaments would have been held in the 25th year of Shenmu. If we can barely reach an agreement this time, the possibility of war will be greatly reduced, but this time it will not be as easy as the previous one. Yang Rui lit a cigarette and took a heavy breath before saying.

"This meeting will certainly demand that China and Japan dissolve the alliance. This is a difficult problem, if you don't agree, then the second naval treaty cannot be signed, and the probability of war is equivalent to the twenty-four years of Shenwu that Xiao Xu said just now; Promise, then Japan is tantamount to being betrayed by us, not to mention whether he will retaliate or not. If we do this, countries such as Persia and North Korea will be terrified.

North Korea does not say. Once the Persians are powerless to defend our allies under pressure from the West, then our barely reigning Persian king is likely to be overthrown by the forces supported by Britain and the United States. The new ruler must have turned his back on Britain and the United States and was hostile to us. The Persian railways must have been confiscated and state-owned. Cutting off is also extremely normal.

In a word, Japan, Korea, Persia, Khiva, Bukhara, these countries are similar to the series circuits in physical electricity, and once Japan is lost, then Persia is lost, and then Khiva and Bukhara are lost. The east side was blocked, the west side was also blocked, and Thailand in the south did not dare to cross the slightest step forward when it saw this, and the final result of the compromise was that we were completely surrounded. ”

"And when will the war start next?" Zhang Taiyan just remembered a Shenwu for twenty-four years. Now I ask about the others.

"It depends on the situation in Europe, if Germany does not provoke war at this time, then it will be a threat of war for us in the next 26 years. At first, it may have been civil strife in Persia, and then there was a conflict between Japan and the United States. When the Americans have almost warmed up -- the warships are almost built and the planes are almost built, then it will be time for war. At this time, the flames of war can no longer be extinguished, but can only be transferred, and if they cannot be transferred, then they will burn in the Great Flat Ocean or the Persian Gulf. Yang Rui said.

"Will Britain and France be neutral at first?" Zhang Taiyan seemed to remember that Yang Rui had deduced this before.

"Hmm. They would be very happy with neutrality, and the USSR. This time, like the last European war, they became the United States, and we became Germany. The United States became Anglo-French. We'll give them back a few thousand tons of gold. Yang Rui said. So Hainan is now planting rubber trees, nickel, chromium, platinum, tin, these things that we don't have or don't have enough to find a way to solve now. At that time, as soon as the war began, the price of these war materials must have skyrocketed. We probably won't be able to buy it yet. ”

After Yang Rui finished speaking, Zhang Taiyan and Wang Jitong were silent, but Yang Rui asked them to come this time, but he didn't say that there was a war between China and the United States. Between the twenty-fourth year of Shenwu and the twenty-sixth year of Shenwu later. Yang Rui preferred the former for a military conflict, in order to create a Sino-Japanese threat theory to re-elect Roosevelt, and at the same time to make it more difficult to sign a second naval treaty. If the naval treaty cannot be renewed, a large-scale war between China and the United States will inevitably break out in the next presidential term, that is, between the 36th and 39th years of Shenwu - 1937-1940 in the Jesus calendar.

Even if Germany had started war in September 1939, it would have only eased the situation in the Pacific. After the end of World War II, only on the premise that the Soviet Union occupied the whole of Germany, could China and Japan be able to break the tie -- the hope of unwrapping up was in the British, more specifically in Churchill. The existence of the three forces of the United States, the Soviet Union, and East Asia has enabled the hegemony of the British Empire to be maintained, and her colonies with France will continue to exist, instead of having to be abandoned under the squeeze and penetration of the United States and the Soviet Union as in the original history, and the whole world will become a pluralistic world, and as long as the Soviet Union exists, China will be safe.

However, there are countless possibilities and variables in history, Hitler's death (the Intelligence Bureau has confirmed that Hitler died in the last battle of the European War, because it was a bombardment and exploded into several pieces, and the armistice was on the verge of signing an armistice, and the army was in chaos, so that it was only after a few years that it was determined that the Führer was really gone) is a variable that has already happened, and the current leader of the Nazi Party, Strasser, is a leftist and socialist, and his coming to power is more likely to lead Germany to internal revolution than to foreign war.

This is true in Germany, and the Soviet Union is also a source of variables, and when Lenin will meet Marx is a big question, in case he is spared death because of penicillin (penicillin is increasingly seen by Yang Rui as the main culprit in the interference of history, and its existence will allow some important political figures to live longer). One can imagine what a significant impact it would have on world history if these men in power had not died), and before Stalin came to power, World War II was likely to be a different scenario.

History can see the general trend, but as if you were in a shipwreck, sea water would seep in from any place. The shipwreck is certain, but which cabins leak first, which compartments tow the entire ship to the bottom of the sea, and which cabins can be protected from flooding are matters of character examination; In addition to character, improvisation is also extremely important.

Character is determined, and improvisation is to play on the spot, so now Yang Rui is not in a hurry at all, and even less thinking about this aspect. When there was silence in the flower hall, a stewed bear paw came from the kitchen, and he introduced it with a smile: "This is the bear paw sent by Ji An, you can taste it, if you think it is delicious, I will have someone send dozens to your family." ”

If you really want to eat the flowing water feast, it will take a few days to eat, and the dishes sent will be withdrawn after not eating for a while. Yang Rui invited the two to taste the bear's paw, and the two of them got off the chopsticks, and both of them felt that the bear's paw was fat and delicious, and it was delicious, but after the deliciousness, they felt that their mouths seemed to be sticky, and they hurriedly picked up a towel to wipe off the gum.

Zhang Taiyan even picked up the shark fin to rinse his mouth, he put down the chopsticks after rinsing, and sighed: "When I was in Shanghai before, I could only buy the cheapest cigarettes, and I smoked a lot of cigarettes; After the founding of the country, it was also a common dish at home, but now that it is divided, everything is sent to the house, and the people are not at ease. More than 200 counties in Northwest and North China have been in drought for three years, and Henan was flooded a few months ago, and now more than 10 counties are flooded......"

In the face of a table of delicacies from the mountains and seas in the Yang Mansion, what kind of disaster did he go, and Zhang Taiyan could say it. Yang Rui said disapprerovingly: "Grain from the Northeast and the Yangtze River has been transported into these places through the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal and the Yellow River. And this is not necessarily a good thing, isn't there a shortage of people in the Northern Court of the Western Regions? In the past, it was said that it was difficult to leave the homeland and that they would not want to emigrate, but now it is better, and more than 20 million people can go there.

Besides, this is also the evil of the ancestors, eight hundred miles of Qinchuan used to be a rich place, but now? What does it look like! The Prime Minister's Office repeatedly stated that it was necessary to plant trees and maintain water and soil, but most of the money for planting trees was greedy by the cadres below, and the trees planted were simply and could not survive at all; Even if he barely survived, he was cut down by local farmers as firewood before anyone was tall, and said that it was not good to burn coal and poisonous gas; I think coal is too expensive, or it is cheap to burn firewood. Where does drought not occur in such places, but where does drought occur?

The flood in Henan is the same, is it because the Ministry of Land didn't give money to repair the dam? No! Is it because the Ministry of Soil does not promote afforestation? No! When it rained heavily in Henan this year, it was also raining heavily in the Fenhe River Basin in Shanxi, and the rainfall was heavier than that in Henan, but why didn't Shanxi flood Henan? These people, to be lenient, are angry and mourn their misfortunes; If you want me to say, you deserve to die! ”

If Yang Rui had said this before, Zhang Taiyan would definitely be angry, but now he has a deep understanding of the situation in North China and Northwest China, and he can't categorically refute Yang Rui's assertion that he 'deserves to die', he just defended: "No matter how you are a Chinese national!" ”

"No, there are people who are not people, but slaves!" Yang Rui even put down his chopsticks when he said this. "Soil erosion is the most serious in the Northwest Central Plains, and the people are the poorest. But the poorer they are, the more obedient they become, and the peasant associations and officials in these places are also the most corrupt and lawless. Some cadres have already been beaten to death by people when they are thrown outside the customs or in Liangguang, but what about the reality? There is no, and when he leaves office, he will still serve the people's umbrella and the official flag. These places should have been sealed off, and then half of the dead people should have rebuilt the people's customs. ”

"But at the beginning, many delegates refused to let Ah." Zhang Taiyan said, "The bottom line of the division is outside the gate, and everyone inside the gate will not agree." The only exception was King Min's uncle Feng in Xuanhua, who broke a leg in Mongolia during the war against Russia. ”

The division is a crazy attack on the entire bureaucracy, and it is already very surprising that Zhang Taiyan can get this result. He explained that Yang Rui did not delve into it, but just started the topic this time, he said: "From May to now, a lot of things have happened, although I have been sick for more than two months, my mind is still constantly thinking. A lot of things that I couldn't think through before, but now I have thought through them; A lot of things that I didn't dare to do before, now I have the courage to do them.

After thinking about the previous revival path for so long, I feel that I should make another major adjustment and finally stick to it. All in all, it is between home and country, and I no longer insist on the position of the country, but the position of the family. To be precise, the destruction of the country does not mean the destruction of China, but the destruction of the family is the annihilation of China, so who comes to power and how many years the state of China can exist is not the core issue, the real core question is whether we can get rid of the previous decline and give new vitality to civilization. (To be continued.) )