Chapter 82 What if
Three days of short vacation, but it seems that after three years, the whole world is unknown. The newspapers no longer talked about the Sino-Japanese war, but all about the war in Europe. Those suit-clad guests, these days are getting more and more sad day by day, seeing that the Westerners are not there, they are worried that the Easterners are afraid that they will really swallow the Northeast this time; And those Changsam gangs gloated over this, shouting for retribution, all thinking that the Westerners could not fight on their own, and without the support of the Westerners, the Orientals would lose this battle.
Suit-wearers generally only go in and out of concessions, fancai restaurants, and cafes, while the Changsam gang has always visited theaters and tea houses, and the two are usually unrelated, but in the major newspapers, the two factions of people debate fiercely, one is constantly changing, one is mixed with foreign and Chinese, one says that foreigners are wild and the fact of cannibalism is inevitable, and the other says that war creates zào prosperity, not to mention that this is a war between the imperial system and democracy, and predicts that democracy will win and autocracy will lose.
The newspapers are full of these messy things, Yang Rui wants to laugh when he looks at it, but the China Times and the Imperial Daily have opened a special column on the European War, it seems that he wants to do a long-term follow-up report, just when he thought that the Imperial Daily was so good, he finally saw the last line of small words in the news: 'Huaxin reporter Vienna report', and it was clear.
As far as foreign information collection is concerned, there are four systems in the whole of China, one is the formal diplomatic system, the second is the formidable intelligence bureau system, the second is the half-official and half-commercial information bureau system, and finally the news system of the Huaxia News Agency. Since Reuters established its Far East bureau in Shanghai 40 years ago, the news from all over the world to China has been monopolized by Reuters. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, Yang Rui specially told Wang Xiaolin of the Ministry of Rites to build the Huaxin News Agency well, and not to copy other people's reports. It is necessary to have first-hand information about the incident, and more importantly, to have one's own point of view. In this way, the reader of the newspaper can be convinced of its authority and impartiality.
The war in Europe is a world event, and the Huaxin News Agency began to follow up on the assassination and funeral of Archduke Ferdinand last month, and some events have been reported frequently, and it was only when Germany issued a double ultimatum that readers suddenly remembered that the cause of the incident was still in that assassination. Although Huang Yuanyong, the newly dug chief writer of the Imperial Daily, writes simply, relying on the report of the Huaxin News Agency, the ins and outs of the matter are extremely transparent, and what is particularly rare is that his writing still carries some feelings. From beginning to end, he was mourning for Duke Ferdinand:
In his writing, Duke Ferdinand was a very enlightened and moderate heir to the throne, who never wanted to use force against the Slavs, but wanted to give them complete autonomy; The reason why he went to Sarajevo this time was not to demonstrate against Serbia, but to give Duchess Sofia a 'dignity to stand side by side' on her wedding Sunday - the duchess was not worthy of Duke Ferdinand according to her family background, let alone the heir to the crown prince, and the duke wanted to marry her in order to marry her under the opposition of the Austro-Hungarian imperial family. There were many concessions: the Duke's children could not inherit his title and property, and the Duchess could only stand behind him on any formal occasion. This time, the Duke just wanted the lady to sit side by side with him in the convertible. But I don't want to......
Huang Yuanyong's newspaper said that Yang Rui knew those things for a long time, but Han Xianfeng, who returned to Beijing in the same car and also began to read the newspaper, knew such a poignant story for the first time, and thought of his identity. Thinking that she had never given birth, she suddenly burst into tears. The teardrops were tentacles and she was afraid that the man would see them, so she had to turn her head and secretly wipe them away. Then he smiled.
When the convoy arrived at Xizhimen, it was already dawn, and not long after the city gate was opened, the patrol guards on guard looked at the sign of the convoy and hurriedly saluted, and then watched the convoy enter the city. When the convoy entered the city and could not be seen, several guards muttered happily: "Now it's okay, the prime minister has returned to Beijing!" ”
A few people muttered, but the captain who had just arrived behind him slapped them on the back of the head, "When will the Prime Minister walk by, don't mumble, do your job, don't let the Oriental spies in." ”
In the early morning, the streets of the inner city were a little deserted, except for the police sergeants patrolling very few passers-by, the convoy pressed the smooth asphalt road, and returned to the prime minister's palace briskly, and after breakfast, at seven o'clock, Li Zilong put down the briefing of the past few days, and told Yang Rui that the officials of all the ministries had arrived, and the meeting would be held immediately.
No matter how big the diplomatic matter is, in Yang Rui's opinion, he is not in a hurry, but the business matter is a big matter, he is afraid that if the people below are confused, and sign a supply and marketing contract with foreign banks and compradors that will not increase the price, it will be wronged. Coming to the conference hall of Yin'an Palace, Yang Rui saw Du Yaquan and asked, "Qiu Fan, is there anything going on from the Ministry of Commerce?" Have you informed companies and businessmen not to sign long-term pricing contracts with outsiders? ”
"The next sentence was sent to all counties across the country three days ago, and in the past few days, seventy out of five counties have reported that all the companies and merchants in their counties have been notified, and the remaining counties have not yet replied." Du Yaquan said that he had been in Tonghua for many years, and he knew exactly what the war would bring.
"That's good!" Yang Rui nodded reassuringly, he was afraid that the order would not be issued, and now that he heard that seventy-five counties had returned, he was relieved. In addition to officials from various ministries, there were also many businessmen, such as match king Yu Qiaqing, shipbuilding king Zhu Zhiyao, flour king Rong Zongjing, soda ash king Fan Xudong, antimony ore king Liang Huankui, etc., as well as Gu Suizhi, representative of the Chongqing Pig Bristle Association, and Wang Huan, representative of Changshengxiang Firm, representative of the Kouwai Leather Merchants Association...... These people Yang Rui knew some and some didn't, but everyone knew him, and when he first came in, everyone got up and saluted, and now seeing him look at everyone carefully, a few people wanted to stand up and salute, but when they saw that everyone else didn't stand, they had to sit on the chairs.
With a clear cough, Yang Rui said, "Let's start." First of all, the capital can be defended completely, unlike some newspapers that the capital has been crumbling. The Japanese were now at the end of their crossbows, and the Russians were pinned down by the Germans to the west, and the Russians had not had a better time since the beginning of the war. The reason why I want you to come today is because of the war in Europe, and the news received this morning that Britain has given a twelve-hour ultimatum to Germany because of its invasion of Belgium, if Germany does not guarantee the safety of Belgium. Then Britain will also declare war on Germany. In this way, the whole world except the United States is at war. However, unlike Europe, the end of the year is coming to an end.
Foreigners fight. We don't need to mix, the country is poor, the people are poor, although you are better than ordinary people, but the money in your pockets is not enough to compete with foreigners. But now is an opportunity, foreigners are fighting, merchant ships are going to be transferred back to China, although foreign goods are still imported during the war, but there will only be fewer and fewer of them. The things needed for the war, such as fur, pig bristles, tung oil, grease, coal and iron, and metal tungsten, antimony, and tin, will all soar, and in addition, considering the war in Europe, its silk industry, agriculture, and textiles will be greatly affected, so the prices of cotton yarn, cotton cloth, raw silk, flour, and eggs will also rise.
Then there is the battle of Europe, which cannot be fought in one year or two years, I think it is fortunate that there will be an end in three or four years. Can you take advantage of these years to make the industry in your hands bigger, and when the big foreigners come back, fair competition will not be left behind. Then it depends on each person's ability. The government wants you to make more money, and Carnegie, the American steel tycoon, sold his steel company and got 50,000 US dollars, and Hehua Yuan has 100,000 yuan. If you can get to this point, the government will have less to worry about. ”
I woke up too early in the morning, and Yang Rui didn't speak as neatly as usual. It was a little lazy, but what he said was more shocking than the last. When he stopped for tea for a while, everyone's necks were still stretched.
"Those of you here today can be divided into two groups. One group is an industrialist like Mr. Zhang Si who replaces foreign goods with domestic goods, and another group of industrialists who purely make short-term profits, earning quick money in recent years. As long as the management of the former factories meets the requirements of the Ministry of Industry, they can immediately apply for loans from the State Bank to expand their scale, and these industries will not only fill up the market from which foreign goods have withdrawn, but also do a good job in this market. We can't wait for the foreigners to come back in a few years, and then we can't hold our heads up by foreign goods, right?
In addition, fur, bristles, and minerals, although they only make quick money in the past few years, if the price increases by five or six times, it is not allowed. In particular, tungsten, antimony, tin these three metals, the output has accounted for more than sixty percent of the world, tungsten, has accounted for ninety percent, it can be said, you sneez, the world's guns will be shocked, at this time, do not double the price of ten times can be sorry for the country, sorry for yourself. ”
Yang Rui's description was so good that Yu Qiaqing, who was familiar with him, finally couldn't help laughing, and he interrupted: "Your Excellency, what if the foreigners who raise the price of foreign companies don't agree?" There are also shipyards that have lost the foresight of the imperial court and laid a good foundation, but matches, flour, and textiles want to expand the production machine, and I don't know where to buy it? And most importantly, what will we do when the foreign goods come back? ”
Yu Qiaqing's words suddenly came out of nowhere, which won the approval of everyone present, leather goods, pig bristles, minerals, etc., have always been pressed by foreign compradors, and now the price has suddenly risen, I am afraid that I will end up with Hu Xueyan, only the revival will control the soybeans, and it is difficult for foreigners to intervene, and the pricing power is still controlled in hand; And textiles, flour, shipbuilding, foreign goods back is good, but what to do again? The tariff is only a pitiful five percent, and the foreigners still have extraterritoriality to protect themselves, like six years ago, Zhang Jian's steamer was deliberately sunk by the foreigner's big ship because of the competitive route, and more than 100 people died, but the foreigner did not have a, and the London court ruled that it was just a few hasty losses of some money, in such a situation, who dares to compete?
Seeming to be a little annoyed, Yang Rui glared at Yu Qiaqing, his eyes were cold and only pierced everyone's hearts, and he said in a deep voice: "Could it be that in everyone's opinion, I, Yang Rui, am easy to provoke, and I am pressed by foreigners to be obedient and respectful?" If that's the case, why fight this war with the Japanese and the Russians? Seeing that everyone bowed their heads weakly, he said again: "Also, the Japanese are still in Gyeonggi, the Russians are still in the Northeast, and they are still in Outer Mongolia. ”
After he finished speaking, he didn't want to pay attention to these people, but looked at Yu Ziyi, the director of the Commercial Intelligence Bureau on the side, and said, "Xiao Bing, let's introduce it." ”
"Yes!" Yu Ziyi replied, he thought that Du Yaquan said this matter, but he didn't want Yang Rui to call his name, he opened the text and said: "The textile machinery company in Taiyuan has imitated looms and yarn machines, the performance is better than that of Japanese machines, and the price is two percent higher, but the supply is worry-free; Flour, matches, shipbuilding, leather, mining and other factories need all kinds of machines, machine tools, bearings, motors, ordinary instruments, cutting tools, Taiyuan Industrial Park can provide. The machines used to make these things were imported directly from Germany, and the imitation designs were also designed with the help of the Germans. The quality is top notch.
Let me introduce the export situation of some commodities and the expected increase in exports after the European war. So that I can give you a reference. Raw silk tea is not mentioned, here is mainly to introduce oilseeds, fur, eggs, mineral metals, flour, cotton yarn, raw cotton, cotton cloth and other major export commodities.
Last year, China exported 120,000 tons of soybean oil, with a value of 21 million taels of goods, and it is estimated that the export volume of oil in Europe during the war will double, and the price will also be used in Europe because of the oil in the Americas. So the increase is not large, it is estimated to be one and a half times the previous one; But tung oil is unique to me, it is an important anti-corrosion and waterproof material, after the war demand will increase exponentially, last year tung oil exports 3.75 million taels, wartime demand will increase at least four to five times, but the price will be, it is not yet known, but even if the price of tung oil does not rise. The export volume is also more than 15 million taels. Analyze the price curve according to the ......"
When Yu Ziyi said this, Yang Rui knocked on the table and interrupted: "Xiao Bing, let's talk to them about things in the industry alone." This is also more concrete. ”
Yang Rui said this, and Yu Ziyi's face was just red. He nodded and turned the page, "China's raw cowhides, sheepskins, rabbit skins, pig bristles, and wool will all increase in demand due to the European war, and the export of various leather goods last year was 200,000 quintals. It is worth 7.8 million taels, and in wartime because of the army's military boots, belts, equipment, etc. Exports will at least more than triple the volume, but leather goods want to increase in a short period of time. There are still some difficulties, and the most feasible way is to take advantage of the opening of the Mongolian railway and the end of the war, and immediately expand orders to Mongolia. The same is true of wool, which last year was worth four million taels, and in wartime it was needed to at least quadruple. In addition, China's pig bristles are the best in the world, with exports of 4.43 million taels last year, and it is expected that the demand in wartime will also increase by two to three times.
Eggs, China's fresh eggs, preserved eggs have been exported to East Asia, in the past, such commodities are fragile, not resistant to storage, but now there is a special refrigerated warehouse transportation, is to export volume growth very fast, last year exported 300,000 quintals of eggs, the amount of 5.73 million taels, is expected to increase four to five times in wartime.
Metal minerals, pig iron not mentioned, tin before the average annual export of 100,000 quintals, wartime demand increases, it is estimated to increase to 300,000 quintals, antimony before 10,000 quintals, but it is a strategic material, and nickel together to make guns, its volume has increased the most, all departments take into account the comprehensive, will increase more than 50 times; Tungsten exports were only about 100,000 quintals before, but this wartime export is estimated to exceed 1 million quintals.
Before the war, the export of flour was 260,000 quintals, and the value of the goods was 1.22 million customs taels, and the wartime demand was more than 10 times, but after the merchant ships of various countries returned to China, the export volume of such large-volume and low-value goods this year and next year will be greatly reduced because there are no ships to transport, and only when there are enough ships can its real demand be reflected......"
Yu Ziyi spent more than ten minutes briefly introducing the commodities that would rise in price because of the European war, and the flour king Rong Zongjing heard that other commodities were doubled for export, although the demand for flour was high, but there was no ship to transport, and he was very anxious. On his way to Beijing, he heard that the German-Austrian merchant ships in Shanghai had disappeared, and that all the British and French merchant ships had returned to China and were on standby, and only some American merchant ships were still in various ports. It is said that the freight rate to the United States has tripled from five dollars per ton to ten dollars, and the freight rate to Britain has also risen from two pounds to four pounds a ton. Flour is a bulk commodity, if the freight is doubled, it will be a loss to ship out, and Rong Zongjing stood up excitedly at the moment and said: "Prime Minister, Lord Shangshu, how can this be done without a ship?" ”
Rong Zongjing asked about the ship, Yang Rui didn't answer, everyone's eyes looked at the shipbuilding king Zhu Zhiyao, and then thought of the government's big shipyard built the year before last, and suddenly looked at the prime minister again, Yang Rui saw them shaking their heads like ducks, and only smiled: "Ask Boss Zhu?" Isn't he a shipbuilding king? ”
"Ahh The Prime Minister is in love, seeking innovation is just a small factory, just a small factory," Zhu Zhiyao said as he looked at Zheng Qinglian and Chen Zaofan of Jiangnan Shipyard and Nanjing Shipyard on the other side, and did not dare to speak at all, "Building big ships still depends on Lord Zheng and Lord Chen, they are the mainstay of the shipbuilding industry." ”
Zhu Zhiyao pushed the words to Zheng Qinglian and Chen Zaofan, but neither of them spoke. Zheng Qinglian is an old man, and he feels that he has no part to speak on this occasion, and Chen Zaofan's Nanjing Shipyard is a military shipyard, and every qiē number is a secret.
Everyone was panicked, and Xu Huafeng, the secretary of the Ministry of Works, who had not spoken, coughed heavily. Then he said: "Ladies and gentlemen, the imperial court has reached an agreement with Germany and Austria. Its more than 200,000 tons of cargo ships in the Far East will all be sold to China, and the merchant ships of several American steamship companies. It will also be contracted by the imperial court at a high price, plus the merchant ships of the steamship China Merchants Bureau and Tiantong Company, the total tonnage will be close to 500,000 tons. Of course, this is not enough, but the Nanjing shipyard is not included in China, and the total tonnage of the dock has 200,000 tons, and if there are enough manpower, the annual shipbuilding capacity of two shifts will reach 400,000 tons.
If we want to standardize the merchant ship again, we will not use it for ten or twenty years, but only for three years and four years. The slipway period can be shortened from one year to six months or even five months, that is, 800,000 tons of merchant ships will be launched in the country in a year. In the first two years, our capacity will be tight, but after that, it will only become more and more relaxed, if the European war is really fought for three or four years, then our merchant ships will have 3 million tons, and they will definitely be able to transport the goods out. ”
At the beginning, the large construction shipyard in China also aroused the criticism of public opinion, and now I heard that Xu Huafeng has solved the problem sentence by sentence, and everyone here can't help but puff up. However, the applause rang out, and he was stopped halfway by Yang Rui waving his hand. He admonished: "The number of merchant ships and the shipbuilding capacity of the country are secret, and everyone must respect themselves. In addition, the government has put a lot of effort into preparing for this qiē. This battle is arguably fought solely for the revitalization of industry, so Congress will pass a tax increase bill against excess profits in due course. You take the big part of the money, but the state always takes the small head. ”
Yang Rui has always given people the impression of being harsh. As soon as he said that he was going to raise taxes, everyone was shocked. However, seeing that several other businessmen who were familiar with the imperial court laughed, and the extremely happy people puffed up again, Yang Rui didn't care about it when he saw this, anyway, he had already finished speaking.
The meeting ended after a while, and the rest of the matter was that the clerks below talked one-on-one about how to make war money, and when there was no one in the conference room at this time, Xu Huafeng looked at Yang Rui and said with a smile: "It's done, I feel that shipbuilding is the most profitable." According to the figures deduced by the Intelligence Bureau, the Business Intelligence Bureau, and the General Staff Headquarters, I am afraid that in the future, the price of this ship will rise to the sky. If a three-million-ton ship is built, there must be four or five billion. ”
"Almost," Yang Rui knows the profits of shipbuilding better than Xu Huafeng, he remembers that the official number built by the Jiangnan Bureau in the later generations is not included in the material, and the cost alone is two hundred dollars, and the cost of three million tons is four hundred million dollars, but he knows more than this, so he is not too happy, leaning comfortably on the chair and taking a sip of tea, Yang Rui said: "Mr. Huafeng, it is not enough to know how much money you can make, but also to know how much money is worth." The judgment of the Ministry of Household Affairs and the State Bank is that once a war breaks out, the currencies of all countries will depreciate, and it is estimated that Russia and Japan, which have little gold reserves, will depreciate by more than three or four times, and Russia, in particular, is estimated to be more than ten times larger. The value of the currencies of countries such as Britain and the United States is estimated to depreciate by half, which means that if we do not double the price of selling things, it is equivalent to not making any money. ”
"Is there such a thing?" Xu Huafeng didn't understand finance, and he was unwilling to think that the calculated profit was suddenly reduced by half.
"It's a natural thing to do. Although foreigners say that it is the gold standard, they are all paper money, not as honest as us, real money and silver. They say that if they don't redeem huàn, they won't redeem huàn, which is why I wanted to talk to Americans about this last time I went to the United States. Yang Rui said. During the war, everyone's economy was very tight, but if there was a war here, they had to print more money, which was the same as the military tickets issued by the Japanese in the northeast. ”
"What then?" Xu Huafeng said. "It's hard to say that we have to be ruthless in our prices, doubling them."
"According to the parameters of the last deduction of the European war situation, how much money can the Ministry of Industry make after calculating it?" Yang Rui said curiously.
"Probably...... It's hard to say. Xu Huafeng said: "If you only count the things sold, shipbuilding, steel, ammunition, aircraft, medicines, trucks and tractors, and all kinds of military materials are about 18 to 2 billion, but if you want to count the freight of the fleet, it will be more than that." If Germany were to engage in unrestricted submarine warfare, how much would you say the freight rate would have to go? ”
"You still want to make this kind of money?" Yang Ruiqi said, as if he only met Xu Huafeng today.
"If you have a fleet, why can't you make all this money?" Xu Huafeng asked rhetorically: "Especially in the United Kingdom, several departments have deduced that the freight rate per ton will exceed 30 pounds, and 10,000 tons will be 300,000 pounds as long as it is shipped to the UK." As long as the submarine attack is not loaded with explosives, the person will not die, and the lifeboat is ready. One million tons of supplies shipped to Britain is 30 million pounds. In exchange for Huayuan, it is 300 million yuan, can't this business be done? Three trips a year is 900 million yuan, and it can't be counted as four years, even if it is two years, there will be 1.8 billion here. Is this just 10,000 million tons of merchant ship, what if it's 2 million tons? ”
Xu Huafeng seemed to have fallen into the eye of money, his eyes were full of light, and he was thinking about how he could make a lot of money from the merchant ships he built. Especially if the standard war slag ship is too cheap, even if it is sunk by a German submarine, what is the pity? (To be continued......)