Zhu Erdian's judgment was actually based on the observation of Colonel Baille of the British Army Observation Group, and his judgment could not be said to be incorrect, but many of the things that Colonel Baille saw were one-sided. First of all, the Baxing Army has been training recruits in the past few months, although there will no longer be the extreme practice of charging in a group of 30,000 people in 15 kilometers, but all the recruits who have been recruited have gone to the front line and have been trained by artillery fire once.

Secondly, the revival army has been restrained from counterattacking, the attack on the Japanese army is basically passively beaten, if the flank is attacked in a roundabout, in order to save shells, after being broken through, it is often transferred to recruit troops to fill the gap, but the Japanese army to carry out a roundabout army is all regular divisions, a Japanese soldier needs three or even four recruits to deal with, many times the whole brigade and the whole brigade are made up, the result is that the entire brigade and the entire brigade are eliminated, but a brigade is gone, and immediately another brigade is on top, after three or four brigades fill in, The attacking Japanese divisions and regiments were bound to suffer casualties and completely lose their offensive capability.

Tian Ji's method of horse racing is to use a large amount of cannon fodder to consume the Japanese elite divisions, as long as the twelve regular divisions and regiments on the Zhili side are exhausted, then the counteroffensive will be easy to fight, but such an exchange ratio is extremely ugly, the exchange ratio between China and Japan in the Northeast Theater is basically about one to 1.25, but in North China, the exchange ratio is completely reversed, and some battles can actually be fought to 3.5 to one.

In this era when tactical and strategic thinking is completely advocating offense, no country's generals will use weak troops against the enemy's strong troops, and they will always guard the most elite troops at the front and the weakest troops at the rear. It is a foreigner who can't imagine the oriental-style swapping strategy.

Foreigners can't imagine that Japanese people who are East Asians can still feel it. After Iguchi was killed in battle, the commander of the 10th Division, Lieutenant General Toshiyin Matsukawa, was confronted by the endless attacks of the new recruits of the Renaissance Army, regardless of casualties. On the way to lead the broken 10th Division to retreat, he wrote a letter to His Excellency Oyamayan, the commander-in-chief of the Chinese Army, in fear.

In the letter, in addition to repeatedly mentioning the endless sea of attacks of the Chinese army, he also judged that the general staff of the Chinese army was using the strategy of Tian Ji horse racing: constantly using the white-knuckle charge of the recruit troops to consume their own regular divisions, and the regular division troops were resting and waiting for standby, and once the regular divisions and regiments of their own side were consumed to a certain extent, that was the beginning of the counteroffensive of the Chinese army.

After all, Lieutenant General Toshiyin Matsukawa is a staff officer valued by Gentaro Kodama, and he has completely seen through the calculations of the General Staff of the Reconstruction Army, but what can he do? Japan had only twenty-five regular divisions. Although the two divisions that remained on the mainland have been transferred out, Liaodong faces the strong Northeast Army of China, and there must be thirteen regular divisions stationed there, so only twelve regular divisions and regiments can fight a decisive battle in Zhili. These 12 divisions have been consumed a lot, the 7th, 9th, 15th, and 13th divisions were already lost in the first battle of Yangcun, and in the battle before the rainy season, the 6th and 10th divisions were disabled and only a few thousand people remained, and the rest such as the 4th, 14th, 16th, and 17th were also not formed, and the 18th and 19th divisions were transferred from Liaodong. It has been a fierce battle for half a year, and although it has been replenished, the recruits' qualifications are extremely low.

The war has been fought so far, although the main division has increased by four more than at the beginning. However, the total strength of the army is not much more than before, and the twelve regular divisions and regiments can fight less than 150,000. Although the domestic reserve divisions were transferred except for the one and a half who stayed on the mainland and the two in Korea, the number of troops sent by the entire Zhili was more than 320,000. But the combat effectiveness of the army is not as good as before the rainy season.

There are many reasons for this reality, and in addition to the lack of reserves, there is also the failure of the reserve system construction. However, in the propaganda of Yama Prefecture Aritomo and the current Prime Minister Katsura Taro. Otherwise, the army had already organized and trained 25 regular divisions and regiments before the war, and would have been able to expand the 25 reserve divisions and regiments in wartime, and it would not have been like it is now: only the 19 regular divisions and regiments that were trained before the war and the 18 reserve divisions and regiments that really fought on the front line were the 19 regular divisions and regiments that were trained before the war.

After the Japanese cabinet refuted the rumors and explained, the angry people immediately pointed the finger at the opposition parties at the beginning of Katsura Taro's rise to power: Yukio Ozaki, a member of the Constitutional Political Friends Association, Takeshi Inukai, the leader of the Constitutional Nationalist Party, newspaper reporters, academics, and the chaebol forces behind these people. During the war, the warlords apparently did not dare to offend the zaibatsu too much, but in the angry attacks of the patriotic people, Seiichi Honda, a reporter for the Asahi Shimbun in Tokyo, was killed, and Kiaki Ishikawa of the Jiji Shimbun was seriously injured.

Although the people died, the perpetrators were collective people, and the chaebols, who were the backers of these people, were revealed to be doing business with China during the war, so the case was finally closed. After this incident, in addition to filing a complaint with the Saionji Gongwang, the chaebols had no choice but to allow the Taisho and Choshu feudal clans to unite and do whatever they wanted, and several tax increase bills and bond bills were passed in the Diet.

However, war money is only one of the basic factors of victory, the Japanese army is inferior to man, tactics are not as good as man, coupled with improper strategic decision-making, even with the help of the Russian army, the war still did not make much progress, only in the Tianchangjie offensive, regardless of the casualties, the Japanese army advanced 40 kilometers at the cost of 40,000 casualties, so that the people's dissatisfaction was dissipated a lot.

After this battle, the chief of staff of the Zhili Dispatch Army prepared to wait for the weather to be clear and the road feasible, and then mobilized the Japanese troops of the Jixian defense line to move south to occupy Baodi, so as to threaten Wuqing behind the Yangcun defenders, and then the defenders could only retreat to the Langfang line, which was already within 50 kilometers of Beijing, and another onslaught here should be able to advance to the outskirts of Beijing, while at the same time the eastern front also cooperated with the attack and staggered advance, striving to occupy Beijing before winter.

When the plan for the dispatch of troops was already in order, and they were actively preparing, they received the advice of the British Minister to China, Zhu Erdian, on the armistice between China and Japan, conveyed by the Consul General of Tianjin, Matsudaira Tsuneo, and the members of the Tokyo cabinet were divided.

"The British are just afraid that after our victory, they will completely occupy Manchuria, Eastern Mongolia, North China and other places." Prime Minister Katsura Taro read the telegram and asserted: "When I went to the independent European countries two years ago, I hoped to form an alliance with the independent countries against the British and British white animals, but it was only because the alliance between Japan and Britain could not be realized." Now the European Nation has declared war on Lucia. Today, a transit ultimatum has been issued to Belgium, so there will be a war between the two countries; It is likely that Britain will remain strictly neutral at first. But if Austria and Israel gain the upper hand in Europe, they will also declare war on them.

Now the European powers were no longer able to intervene in the war in the Far East. Only the Mi Congress will point fingers at us, but the Panama Canal has not yet been officially opened, and the Mi Navy cannot fully support China for the time being, and now China stands on the position of sympathizing with Germany and Austria, and there is no better opportunity to open up than now, so it is absolutely impossible to stop the war. ”

After Katsura Taro looked at the ambition, he didn't see the excitement of everyone present, his excited face immediately pulled down, he looked at the Minister of the Navy Yashiro Rokuro who wanted to speak and said, "Your Excellency Yashiro." Say whatever you want,"

"Your Excellency, according to reliable sources, the Panama Canal will be officially opened this month. The Atlantic Fleet of the US Navy is two thousand nautical miles closer to East Asia. If China is defeated, the people of the United States will definitely intervene in mediation, and the main force of the United States Navy will also be transferred to the Pacific Ocean to demonstrate deterrence. Rokuro Yashiro said. Seven years ago, the Taibai fleet of the United States visited Yokohama, and the lineup at that time shocked the whole of Japan, which couldn't help but think of the two ships of Dingzhen in the Qing Dynasty. It's just that the United States is not the Qing country, and after the appearance of the dreadnought, from the South Carolina to the Nedawa, a total of twelve dreadnoughts of six classes have been built, and the most terrifying thing is that the momentum of the United States to build ships has not stopped at all. It is estimated that it will not be long before the Japanese Navy will be left far behind.

Slightly dull, Katsura Taro asked, "Isn't there anything you can do?" I mean to prevent the United States from interfering in the war between Japan and China. Especially the peace talks that followed the occupation of Beijing. ”

"After the occupation of Beijing, there will be peace talks in China, is this the news from the General Staff Headquarters?" Rokuro Yashiro asked. Thinking of hundreds of millions of yen in military spending, it's gone. As the Minister of the Navy, he is very unwilling, and the army is really full of red deer.

"Shina claims to be Hou Ming. In the last armistice negotiations, they also said that 'the king dies and the Son of Heaven guards the country', as long as Beijing is occupied, then the emperor of China can be captured. War Minister Kigoshi Antsuna saw him questioning Katsura Taro, and couldn't help but raise it to refute.

"Hehe, it turns out that the army's plan is based on Yang's words." Rokuro Yashiro said with a smile. "Not to mention that the branch is not the Later Ming, or the former Ming Dynasty, their emperor was also captured by the Tile Thorn, but what is the result? Now the emperor of China is just a symbol in the end, and there are many Zhu brothers, so why not set up another emperor in Xi'an? The person who thought that the emperor of China would sue for peace if he was captured was simply a sinner of the empire! ”

Yashiro Rokuro's last sentence was extremely heavy, and Kigoshi Yasuzuna stood up and shouted: "Yaga! It's not that the navy red deer is afraid of the submarine in China, Beijing would have taken it long ago, and the war would have ended long ago! In addition, the submarine of China is now active frequently in East China, and if a submarine enters the Bohai Sea and affects the shipping of materials, the navy is a national thief of the empire! ”

The two ministers of sea and land scolded each other, a sinner and a national thief were so lively, Katsura Taro could only get up and shout when he saw this: "Shut up!" He looked around at everyone before saying, "If you don't defeat China, the empire's rights and interests in Manchuria cannot be guaranteed, and Korea will also be taken away by China and rice animals, and the empire will soon become what it was twenty years ago." Ladies and gentlemen, are you willing to return the empire to its former state? In these twenty years, in these decades, can the land in exchange for the sacrifice of the empire be easily lost? ”

Katsura Taro said righteously and stopped everyone. The union of Michi was the most taboo thing in the Empire, and although there was an alliance between Japan and Britain, the Empire was obviously a burden to Britain. Shina is now thriving under the leadership of the Yang clan, and if there is no war now, it is estimated that after the expiration of the Third Japanese-British Alliance, Shina will attack Korea. At that time, it was not the current branch.

"Beijing is the capital of China, if the Yang family does not negotiate peace, then after our occupation, we will restore the Qing state, set up Fu Wei as the emperor, the north of the Huai River for the Qing state, and the south of the Huai River for the Ming state, so that it is most in line with the interests of Japan." Katsura Taro said his plan, he looked at the eyes of everyone who didn't believe it, and was very proud: "If the Qing country can support it for one year, it will support it for one year, and if it can support it for two years, we don't want to support the Qing country for a long time, as long as we keep falling into civil strife, we can also support others in a few years, such as Sun Wen, such as Duan Qirui, such as Liang Qichao, whoever can add chaos to the current government of China, then we will support whom."

There can only be one great power in the whole of East Asia, either an empire or a China, and now we are ahead of the curve, and China is catching up, and if China is not thrown into chaos, then it will be China that will win in the end. Zhina Yanfu once said. Natural selection, the superior breed defeats the inferior species. I believe that the strong race triumphs over the weak species. Gentlemen. This battle between Japan and China is the second battle of national fortune, and if we win this battle, that branch will completely sink, and the empire will become more and more prosperous, if not, the empire's national fortune will no longer be. ”

After Prime Minister Katsura Taro finished speaking, the people who originally wanted an armistice under the influence of Britain were also deeply silent, and after Yang came to power, the day of China was better than a day, thinking about the revival army that is now all over the mountains. Will Japan still be able to win in 10 years?

After pondering deeply, Foreign Minister Kato Takaaki coughed out of place, and then said: "Your Excellency, the British envoy to the Qing Dynasty, Zhu Erdian, is only the opinion of the British Minister Zhu Erdian, and does not represent the British government. Britain would soon invade Belgium, and if Britain complied with the Treaty of London in 1839, he would declare war on the Independence tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.

According to the convention, the people of the United States will not join the war in Europe, and yesterday the newspapers in New York, Washington, and other places were commenting on the war in Europe as spectators, after Britain declared war on the independent country. It is very likely that the United States will declare neutrality immediately. If the United States were neutral, and we would declare war on the Independence as a Japanese-British Alliance, and immediately join the Entente, then there would be no way for the United States to go to war with the Empire. Because he has already declared neutrality. This can prevent the United States from interfering in the Japanese-China War at the maximum range. ”

Takaaki Kato explained like a tongue twister, and finally came to the conclusion that he would immediately join the Entente to prevent the intervention of the United States, and everyone here was thinking about the pros and cons of this matter for a while. And the Minister of the Navy, Yashiro Rokuro, who thought of the Far East ship of the Independent Country, said: "The Independent Country has the Far Eastern Fleet in Qingdao, and once war is declared. Then this fleet, Britain will demand the destruction of the Imperial Navy. ”

"Yes. The strength of the Far Eastern Fleet of the independent country is not very strong, and there are not too many independent army forces stationed in Qingdao. As long as we can defeat the Far East Fleet of the Independent Country, we can land and occupy Qingdao and even Shandong. Kato Takaaki added: "After occupying Shandong, you can advance along the Jiaoji Railway to Jinan, but now that China is empty, now that war has been declared on the independent country, then Shandong can completely land and occupy it." ”

Kato Takaaki's previous diplomatic analysis was good, but when it came to the military, it was not the case, and now there are not enough troops in China, and if the troops are to be divided again, then Beijing does not know when it will be occupied.

"Then inform Britain at once, and express to Sir Grey our determination to fight together with the British!" Katsura Taro ignored Kato's later construction and directly adopted the previous one, "The navy will immediately enter combat readiness and prepare to destroy the independent Far East fleet." ”

"Hey!" Admiral Minister Rokuro Yashiro stood up and said.

"Kato-kun, we joined the Entente, will Shina join the Allies?" Katsura Taro suddenly thought about this question. "If China joins the Allies...... Can the Allies win? ”

Katsura Taro thought deeply, and there were several questions in one sentence, Kato Takaaki thought about it and shook his head and said: "As usual, China will not join the Allies, after all, the war situation in Europe is unclear now." But Yang Jingcheng is difficult to do things with common sense, looking at the rise of this person is only twelve or thirteen years, to have this achievement, in addition to strength, luck is also very important, everything he does is like... It's like stepping on the node of fate. ”

Kato Takaaki said it mysteriously, and some words did not reach the meaning, but Katsura Taro pondered, what would Yang think about the war in Europe?

When Katsura Taro secretly speculated, Yang Rui was in the Summer Palace at this time. He didn't travel far on vacation, he just came here. In addition to the good scenery here, the General Staff also moved here because of the secrecy, and they will not have a real home until the Xishan Headquarters is completed.

In summer, the Summer Palace, which is surrounded by mountains and rivers, is extremely cool, and the scenery is good and no one is disturbed, so Yang Rui has to forget about his days here. He wanted to do so, but now that the storm was coming, he couldn't rest if he wanted to. Since Germany declared war on Russia, there have been constant telegrams at home and abroad, and these people are bigger than the other, and a few of them are too lazy, so Li Zilong still sent the telegram over.

The most important of these was American President Wilson, who, after his routine greetings, inquired about the situation of the war, and finally when it came to the situation in Europe, he earnestly urged that China and the United States be consistent and adopt neutrality towards the warring parties, so that the German Asian fleet could only leave Tsingtao, and thus not lead the war in Europe to China.

In addition to Wilson, there were also Morgan of Wall Street, Rockefeller of Mobil, Kaiser Wilhelm, Wang Jitong, and Zhong Guanguan, and Yang Rui did not reply immediately after reading these telegrams. He wanted to wait until Britain declared war on Germany on the 13th day before he made China's attitude clear, and now he was hiding to the side to see if the whole world situation was still developing according to history.

Walking by the Kunming Lake in the Summer Palace, Xie Jintai, who had been silent for a long time, couldn't help but ask: "It's done." Germany occupied Luxembourg today and also gave an ultimatum to Belgium. France has also mobilized, so it is not known whether the British will be on time for the Treaty of London more than seventy years ago. If fulfilled, Britain would declare war on Germany two days after tomorrow.

There was a great deal of discussion among the European powers, parliamentarians and public opinion, and many people thought that we should join one of them, so that we could regain some rights and interests by declaring war, or at least not pay them any more reparations. At home, the ministers of various countries were anxious to make our position clear, Britain and France and other countries wanted us to stand in neutrality, and Germany and Austria wanted us to attack Russia immediately. Otherwise, it threatens Yunyun, what should we do? ”

Xie Jintai slowly said about the diplomatic situation, in fact, Yang Rui can imagine this, but these are not the key, for him, the most important thing is whether history has changed, only when Britain declares war, he can be sure that the First World War is really fought.

"We're not neutral. They are not at war, and when the time is ripe, they declare themselves non-belligerents. Yang Rui said with a smile. At the same time, the Russian side demanded that it begin to withdraw its troops within 20 hours, withdraw from Liaoning within five days, and withdraw from China within 15 days. Otherwise, we will attack and drive them out of the northeast. ”

Both decisions were unexpected by Xie Zhangtai, and he said, "It was done." Is this good? There is a huge difference between non-belligerent countries and non-neutral countries! And the Russian army, look at the news from Peren's side. The Russians will not withdraw their troops if they do not swallow Outer Mongolia, and they really want to fight Russia. But didn't we have to fight Japan first? ”

"There's nothing wrong with that. The Russian army is in the plain area, and it has been proud and arrogant that it has been victorious, even if they are given half a month, they will not withdraw, and when they are negligent, they will first defeat and destroy these 200,000 people, so as to give an explanation to the German side, and in addition, they can be relieved of their worries and fight more smoothly. Chong'an, you must know that the current war will affect the world pattern in the next few decades or even a hundred years. Yang Rui said with his hands behind his back, looking at the flat surface of the lake like a mirror.

"As for the belligerents and neutral countries, in fact, they all mean the same, the biggest difference is that if we declare neutrality, then the German Far East Fleet will leave Qingdao within twenty-four hours, and the Japanese will find a way to destroy them......" Yang Rui said and said without further words, but Xie Jintai didn't bother him, he knew that Yang Rui must be thinking about something important.

Yang Rui's thinking is actually not complicated, with the report of the General Staff, he knows that within one to two months, in addition to the concession and the Arthur fortress, the Russian and Japanese armies in China will be wiped out or captured, and since then the war has been moved to Korea and Taiwan, North Korea is agreed with the Americans, and Taiwan is something else. He was not sure whether the Americans would still support him after taking Taiwan. Therefore, in order to continue to receive the support of the United States, he believes that not only can the Japanese navy not suffer too much losses, but after the end of the third Anglo-Japanese alliance, it is better for the two countries to renew the treaty again, so that China can continue to receive the support of the United States when China and the United States face Britain and Japan in the Pacific.

First of all, he ordered the submarine forces and air force to only damage but not sink the capital ships of the Japanese Navy; After that, we can't bomb Japan in an all-round way, and we can't impose an extreme blockade on Japan, so that it can earn more money in World War I, so that we can have the money to expand the army and build ships, of course, the army may also be rebuilt, but the devils who are cowering on the Japanese island need to expand the navy even more.

The expansion of the Japanese navy can be through these two guarantees, but it is not so simple to maintain the Anglo-Japanese alliance, first of all, Japan did a great favor to Britain in World War I, thinking that the British will not abandon him as in history, and then China will show some war intentions to Britain after World War I, so that he cannot abandon Japan as a thug.

If it is a good thing, then the pattern of confrontation between Britain and Japan and China and the United States can be maintained until the end of the next Anglo-Japanese alliance, but can this result really be achieved? Yang Rui didn't know. He just had a hunch that once the Anglo-Japanese alliance was not renewed, the United States, which had been under less pressure, would interfere in China's internal affairs, and Mahan's theory of sea power regarded the Pacific Ocean as the backyard of the United States, and if he did not control China's Washington and Wall Street, he would not give up. (To be continued......)